NO “ONE BEST WAY” TO MANAGE CHANGE: UNDERSTANDING ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM IN ITS MANAGERIAL, POLICY, AND POLITICAL CONTEXTS ACROSS THE FIFTY AMERICAN STATES Brendan Burke Bridgewater State University <bburke@bridgew.edu> Chung-lae Cho Kookmin University, Korea <clcho@kookmin.ac.kr> Jeffrey L. Brudney University of Georgia <jbrudney@uga.edu> Deil S. Wright University of North Carolina <dswright@mindspring.com> Paper presented at the 8th Public Management Research Conference, University of Southern California, School of Policy, Planning, and Development, Los Angeles, CA, September 29 - October 1, 2005. The authors thank the Earhart Foundation of Ann Arbor, Michigan, for their research support. 1 No “One Best Way” to Manage Change: Understanding Administrative Reform in Its Managerial, Policy, and Political Contexts Across the Fifty American States INTRODUCTION Administrative Reform (AR) is in some respects like the 57 ingredients in Heinz ketchup or the 31 flavors of Baskin Robbin’s ice cream. It is imported, marketed, sold, and consumed by a diverse array of jurisdictional and/or organizational “customers.” Thus the character and composition of the commodity as well as the complexion of the consumers produces a complex collage on the intellectual and practical landscapes of public management. Kettl (2005) sketched the global “market” for reform and offered two dominant patterns, the Westminster and American “styles.” The scope and significance of AR is demonstrated by his claim (2005: 60) that, “Perhaps never before have so many governments tried to change so much so fast in such similar ways.” Transcending style (Borins, 1995), consolidation and reorganization (Berkman and Reenock, 2004), emergent models (Peters, 1996) and reinvention (Osborne and Gaebler, 1992; Brudney and Wright, 2002), a core proposition emerges from the scholarly literature and the realm of management practice. Kettl (2005: 61) captures this perspective in his chapter on “Reform as Governance,” stating, “reforms of government management are inevitably tied up with fundamental issues of policy and political and economic change.” This analysis of reform in American state governments in the 1990’s begins with the governance proposition as a starting point. With this base we first offer a descriptive analysis of configurations or patterns of AR across the states. A host of factors, many 2 self-evident, make the 50 American states natural “laboratories” for comparative analysis. Beyond systematic description, however, we are intent on pursuing a more probing and theoretically grounded understanding of AR. Ultimately, we are in search of one or more models that contribute substantially and significantly toward explaining the phenomenon. Given the variety of AR as practiced by the states and the range of explanatory variables, our analysis must be exploratory. Reform and Reinvention The public management field faces a quandary in grappling with the cluster of issues associated with contemporary AR. The issues involve, among others, the identification, classification, understanding, explanation, and prescription (or advocacy) of administrative reform(s). It is clear that a global public management “revolution” has occurred (Kettl, 2005). It is common knowledge that many national and subnational governments now function with updated techniques, approaches, and cultural underpinnings since the 1980’s and 1990’s. Difficulties remain, however, in estimating the character, content, extent, and results of the so-called revolution. New Public Management reforms are fraught with methodological challenges (Poister and Streib, 1999; Calista, 2002; Thompson, 2002). To what extent have governments “reinvented” themselves? Specific successful cases (New Zealand, Texas, and Sunnyvale, California) support affirmative responses (Boston, 1996; Tucker, 2002; Epstein, Campbell, and Tucker, 2002), but others highlight the complications and pitfalls of these reforms (Mintzberg, 1994; Frederickson, 1996; Peters and Savoie, 1996; Behn, 2002). 3 This article proposes and demonstrates a different approach to measuring, understanding, and explaining contemporary administrative reform. A focus on management changes in the American states enables us to identify two dimensions of reform and to assess them as alternative though not mutually exclusive strategies. This effort contrasts with previous approaches that assess the success or failure of New Public Management (reinvention) reforms in general (Brudney, Hebert, and Wright, 1999; Kearney, Feldman, and Scavo, 2000). It also departs from analysis of single reform techniques such as performance management (Poister and Streib, 1999; Willoughby and Melkers, 2001). The reality of AR is that jurisdictions, organizations, and administrative leaders often pick and choose packages of reform techniques or tools in an incremental or piecemeal fashion rather than a comprehensive manner (Conant, 1988; Berkman and Reenock, 2004). The two dimensions of reform features proposed and examined in this article consist of (a) specific efforts to streamline administrative processes, rules, and structures, and (b) performance-focused changes, with an emphasis on results or outcomes. After describing the historical basis for the two dimensions, and validating their usage in state governments during the 1990’s, the article compares and contrasts the two dimensions in different state governments and agency-specific organizational settings. Reinvention is not the only possible line of reform under the guise of New Public Management. It is nevertheless a dominant expression since the publication of its guiding documents (Osborne and Gaebler, 1992; Gore, 1993). Usually depicted as a new paradigm for the functioning of public administration systems, reinvention is considered as a reorientation of the bureaucracy simultaneously toward a customer focus, 4 market options, enhanced accountability, and continuous improvement (Osborne and Plastrik, 2000). Most discussions of reinvention, including critiques, endorsements, and empirical assessments, attempt to unify the different components as a single or unidimensional phenomenon. Some analysts hint at multiple strategies involving reinvention implementation. Osborne and Gaebler (1992) outlined several principles of reinvention (“Catalytic Government,” “Competitive Government,” etc.) and attached case examples. But rarely did a “reinventing” government align itself with more than two or three of the principles. At the end of the Twentieth Century, Osborne and Plastrik (2000) provided specific guidance on implementing reinvention in the Reinventor’s Toolbook. Several years into the (American) reform wave, these consultants described the difficulty of implementing the reform and the relative scarcity of fully developed examples of reinvention. Not surprisingly, the “user” of their Reinventor’s Toolbook was advised to assess and implement the various techniques differently depending on whether their political and administrative systems were favorably disposed toward AR. Why is it so difficult for public organizations to reinvent themselves in a comprehensive manner? Does full-scale AR exceed the typical organization’s capacity for change? Critics identified philosophical inconsistencies within the “reinvention” reforms, starting with the impossibility of empowering employees and work groups simultaneously with efforts to enhance their coordination across service areas (Peters and Savoie, 1996; Thompson and Riccucci, 1998). The executive focus of AR may work against legislative goals and incentives and reform efforts may confront further problems as executive (governor) leadership changes hands (Kettl, 2000; Aberbach and Rockman, 2001). The shift from a traditional focus on 5 effective bureaucratic processes toward an outcome orientation requiring major cultural changes can be daunting (Durant, 1999; Behn, 2002). The major difficulties associated with implementing the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA) is a classic case in point so far as AR involves managing for results (Kamensky and Morales, 2005). The pressures from the political environment and commitments within the administrative system must be strong in order to pursue such dramatic changes. Given different historical, political, and cultural circumstances across the landscape of governance, it is natural to find contrasting meanings for AR even within the specific definitions of reinvention. Kettl’s (1999) history of the National Performance Review describes three relatively distinct phases, including a movement from the broadest possible design in 1993, toward a “rightsizing” focus with the change in Congress in 1995, and finally a targeted improvement effort (in agencies like the Internal Revenue Service) by 1997. Political demands can create an “ebb and flow” to reform efforts, movements such as shoring up efficiency and effectiveness in governmental operations as well as enhancing accountability mechanisms (Light, 1997; Thompson and Riccucci, 1998). Partial use of reinvention tools may be criticized by some as “tireless tinkering” (Peters, 1996, viii), but selective attention to administrative specifics, such as strategic planning (Berry, 1993) has its supporters. Narrower efforts provide “amplification” or pyramiding of reform possibilities already under way (Thompson, 1999). These efforts occasionally have had some impact on administrative performance as an undercurrent within countless Western governments (Borins, 1995). 6 Kettl (2005) elaborates “American style” reform from a joint historical and analytic perspective. He notes (2005:19) that the two Hoover Commissions (1949, 1955) concentrated successively on “the structure of government” and on “governmental processes.” He concludes that these features “guided most of the government reform movement for the rest of the Twentieth Century.” Toward the end of the century, however, Kettl and a number of other observers identify (2005: 22) “substantial and longlasting reforms” that “make government work better and…make it smaller and cheaper too.” This attention marked the advent of reforms which, regardless of terms and tools, put an emphasis on performance, results, and outcomes rather than structure(s) and process(es). For Light (1997) this development was “liberation management,” the fourth tide of AR. For the Clinton Administration it was the National Performance Review (NPR). For Osborne and Gaebler (1992) it was Reinventing Government. In these analytic and temporal groundings rest the foundations for our excavation of two dimensions of AR: (a) structure/process and (b) performance/results. Distinct Strains of Administrative Reform This analysis relies on comprehensive surveys of administrative reform (reinvention) strategies employed at the state agency level during the 1990’s. The range of administrative tools analyzed in the surveys allows for the conceptual and empirical development of two separate dimensions during the first decade of “reinvention.” The data, extraction, methods, and validation of the two dimensions are discussed in the 7 subsequent section of the article. The next section sketches the two dimensions and identifies their roots in American bureaucratic reform history. Structure and Process Reforms The Winter Commission (Thompson, 1994) advocated for a reduction of certain administrative structures that had grown over time. Knott and Miller (1987) describe the growth of regulatory impediments in American government during the course of the Twentieth Century, natural accompaniments to the Weberian bureaucratic design and reliance on rules—but at the same time, growth in regulatory mechanisms was a central repository of perverse incentives and unintended consequences that burdened the efficient functioning of administrative systems. The deregulatory movement was seen as a distinct focus in public administration (DiIulio, 1994), in keeping with common findings from process analysis, “reengineering” (Hammer and Champy, 1994) and other techniques of the Total Quality Movement (Deming, 1986). Deregulation drove reforms in three areas especially: The reduction of constraints to move budget appropriations; the easing of restrictive procurement rules; and the streamlining of personnel procedures to hire and fire government workers. The simplification of governmental structures may even involve a more comprehensive option to circumvent “red tape:” The privatization or contracting out of governmental functions, under the assumption that private or non-profit service providers will not be hamstrung by the same level of rules as found in governmental service agents (Savas, 1987; Milward, 1992). To different stakeholders, one program’s burdensome constraint is the protection of rights and liberties (Kaufman, 1978). A strong review process is necessary to determine whether deregulation is appropriate or not. 8 Performance-based Reforms American state governments steadily enhanced their managerial and policy implementation capacity throughout the Twentieth Century (Bowman and Kearney, 1986). Many if not most of the reforms were oriented around stronger executive capacity and increases in the efficiency and effectiveness of administrative systems (Conant, 1988). Organizational structures were streamlined, and independent commissions were consolidated under the governor, and executive staff agencies were strengthened. In keeping with executive accountability, state governments moved toward more rational decisionmaking systems, designed to enhance management’s ability to improve the administration of public programs. Beginning in the 1930’s, performance became an appropriate criteria for administrative strategy (Ridley and Simon, 1938). The performance focus first drove budget allocation processes at the national level, especially in the advent of Planning-Programming-Budgeting systems, and further in the use of cost benefit analysis (Schick, 1966). PPB would prove too onerous and complex for all but the largest of national agencies (Wildavsky, 1969), but some of the underlying components of the complex analytic design were kept for use in many governmental settings. State and local governments created the ability to allocate budgets, evaluate programs, and even evaluate personnel performance around outcome measures by the 1970’s. Strategic planning, another part of PPB systems, became increasingly useful to the best of state governments by the 1980’s. By the end of the 1990’s, the Government Performance Project (GPP) would show that some state governments had strong planning and performance measurement focuses, while others had a long way to go (Barrett and Greene, 1999). 9 The major commission to inspire state-level reform worked in temporal proximity to the publication of Osborne and Gaebler’s Reinventing Government (1992), and would share many of the same ideas and approaches. The Winter Commission (1993) described a performance deficit in American state governments and the need for a reorientation toward customers or clients of government services. A dialogue was necessary among governmental agencies, legislative sponsors, and either interest groups or direct beneficiaries of state services. The commission provided impetus for much of the state and local reform effort of the 1990’s, as strategic planning and performance-based budgeting spread across the state capitals (Berry, 1994; Willoughby and Melkers, 2001). Measuring Administrative Reform (AR) Dimensions We contend that AR strategies can be clustered around two dimensions: (a) structure/process and (b) performance/results. The next step and challenge is to construct measures (questions) for each dimension and present them to practicing public managers. Timing was especially relevant because the 1990s were the “reform” decade (Kettl 2000; Brudney and Wright 2002). Measurement was accomplished through two successive surveys of the American State Administrators Project (ASAP) in 1994 and 1998 (Wright and Cho 2001). The 2,000-plus state agency heads who responded to the ASAP surveys were asked the following lead or stem question: From time to time state agencies undertake to change the way they do things. Please indicate the extent to which your agency has implemented each of the following changes in the 1990s. A set of five response options were posed. They ranged from “No change considered” and “Considered, no action taken,” to “Fully implemented.” Six 10 structure/process and five performance/results queries were included in the battery of “reform” changes. The eleven-item set of questions was lodged in a larger section titled, “Administrative Changes and Reforms.” Structure/Process Reform Indicators Below we summarize the information we have obtained on the structure/process reform measures across the states. We present the items along with the percentage of respondents who indicate that each change was partially or fully implemented by their agency in each of the two ASAP survey years, 1994 and 1998. Partially/Fully Implemented 1994 1998 (percentages) Decentralization of decision-making Reduction in hierarchical levels Greater procurement discretion Simplify human resources rules Privatization of major programs Discretion to use carryover funds n= 55 39 36 29 23 21 60 44 44 34 24 22 1,135 1,075 Two features of the tabulation merit mention. First, for each item the percentage for 1998 was slightly higher than for 1994. This pattern suggests a degree of consistency and continuity involving state-level AR in the 1990s. In other words, reform was more than a ripple, possibly wave, but hardly a tide or a tsunami (Thompson 2002, Brudney and Wright 2002). Second, inclusion of the privatization item under structure/process seems questionable. We had initial doubts given the prominence and recognition accorded contracting for services as a “liberation management” feature (Light 1997). We knew, however, that contracting was extensive and longstanding (Light 1999). Our cautions and 11 concerns were alleviated when we examined responses to a related battery of questions in the 1998 ASAP survey. We found, for example, that roughly 60%, 70%, and 80% of state agencies contracted for service delivery with, respectively, other governments, non-profit entities, and private firms (Choi, Cho, Wright, and Brudney 2005). In sum and in short, privatizing (contracting out) is a process or tool well established and extensively employed through a variety of intermediaries. The long-standing legacy of this tool prompted us to place it in the structure/process cluster (Salamon 2002). Performance/Results Reform Indicators Any historical or other set of reflections about AR must recognize that administrative performance in the form of economy, efficiency, and effectiveness was never far from the aims and aspirations of reform efforts (Ridley and Simon 1938). Whether prompted by “War on Waste” or “Watchful Eye” efforts (Light 1997), or other reform themes, underlying much of the long history of AR is a central value of quality in public service delivery. Performance or results, therefore, is a matter of relative emphasis, not exclusivity or in opposition to structure/process changes. What appeared distinctive in the 1990s, however, was the elevation and veneration of tools, strategies, or actions that placed “managing for results,” “performance management,” and other phrases in the forefront of most reform vocabularies. The national GPRA legislation in 1993 seemed to cement the emphasis, along with the NPR (National Performance Review) of the Clinton Administration (Kettl 1999). At the state and local levels REGO or Reinventing Government in its various “RE” forms, seemed to predominate. As Kettl (2005:22) noted, reform “focused on 12 changing bureaucrats’ behavior rather than transforming fundamental government structures and processes.” He also observed (2005:73) that “the reform movement has shifted the focus of many governments away from inputs . . . to results (outputs or outcomes).” Following considerable discussion and pre-testing, five administrative change items were selected for inclusion in the 1994 and 1998 ASAP surveys with the aim of measuring performance and/or results. These items are listed below together with the percentages of state agency heads indicating that the action(s) had been partially or fully implemented in 1994 and 1998. Partially/Fully Implemented 1994 1998 (percentages) Strategic plans for clear mission statements Training programs to improve customer service Quality improvement programs Benchmarking to measure outcomes Measurement of customer satisfaction n= 79 82 72 62 52 87 83 79 73 64 1,135 1,075 Once again a modest but consistent rise in the percentages from 1994 to 1998 reveals the staying power of reform among the American states in the 1990s. Strategic planning, benchmarking, and measuring customer satisfaction displayed noteworthy percentage-point rises across the four year span. Purpose, performance, and results clearly carried the day in reform implementation from 1994 to 1998 across the states. This point is reinforced and solidified by an examination of the percentages for structure/process tools reported earlier. The average percentage of partial/full implementation for the six structure/process items was 34% and 38% respectively in 13 1994 and 1998. The comparable averages for the five performance items were 69% and 77%. Clearly the past decade was one in which performance/results reforms substantially overshadowed more traditional structure/process reforms. A final point merits mention with regard to both clusters of reform items. It echoes but modifies Kettl’s earlier observation about so many governments making so many changes so fast in such similar ways. A reinspection of the percentages (or averages) for 1994 and 1998 reveals that, despite the consistently higher percentages for the latter year, those numbers were only slightly or modestly higher for 1998 than 1994. These minor differences underscore Kettl’s assertion about American style reform (2005:72): “[American] reforms have been incremental rather than sweeping or comprehensive.” With details, clarifications, and measurement(s) of the two dimensions of AR appropriately specified we proceed to the next stage in the analysis. That section involves the validity and the reliability of dividing the eleven reform items into the two hypothesized dimensions of AR. Confirmatory Factor Analysis Two major statistical approaches can be used to extract underlying factors or latent variables across a set of observed variables: (1) explanatory factor analysis, and (2) confirmatory factor analysis. Beyond explanatory factor analysis (EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) provides the opportunity and flexibility to hypothesize the relations between/among latent variables, observed variables, and measurement errors. EFA seems most appropriate when we have limited substantive knowledge about the numbers of latent variables or the relationships between latent and observed variables. If, 14 however, we can formalize a model representing the relationship among three elements -latent variables, observed variables, and measurement errors -- with theoretical justification, CFA is more advantageous. Since EFA relies exclusively on statistical criteria, such as retaining only factors associated with an eigenvalue greater than or equal to one, problematic solutions and interpretations may emerge (Bollen 1989, 232). By contrast, CFA requires researchers to apply theoretical and substantive knowledge to construct a model. The model can then be estimated to determine its fit to empirical data. The employment of both substantive and statistical knowledge produces a more reasonable and reliable solution. CFA contributes two main practical advantages to this research. First, CFA allows correlations among measurement errors. In EFA, measurement errors cannot be correlated. Measurement errors are part of the variance that is not explained by latent variables, and it is quite plausible that measurement errors are correlated. Since few, if any measurements are perfect, measurement errors need to be included in a formal and statistical/empirical model. The second utility of CFA for this research is that the covariance of latent variables can be estimated or set to any value. As presented below, we estimate the degree of correlation (or independence) between the two dimensions of reform we have proposed: structure and performance. These important advantages lead to the choice of CFA as the statistical strategy for testing propositions about the dimensionality of reform across the U.S. states. Figure 1 shows the hypothesized relationship between the structural-process reform dimension and the six indicators from the ASAP survey thought to tap that aspect of reform. As hypothesized, all six reform items display a positive relationship with the 15 structure-process dimension. Factor loadings for the specific reform techniques and the structure construct lie in the range between .39 and .58, all at statistically significant levels. The model fit indexes are very good (see Figure 1) so that the theoretical model proposing a structure/process reform dimension seem to fit the data well. INSERT FIGURE 1 ABOUT HERE Figure 2 presents analogous findings for the hypothesized relationship between the performance/results dimension and the five relevant ASAP reform indicators assessing that type of reform. These reform items all load at between .43 and .62, and again, the overall model displays good fit indexes. The only potentially troublesome statistical test is the low chi-square value (3.02); yet, the chi-square statistic is problematic when sample size is large. Given that the ASAP data set is large (N = 2,229), and the other model fit indexes are good, we are confident that our model fits the data well in spite of the chi-square value. Thus, our hypothesis of a distinct performance/results dimension seems to be borne out in the ASAP data. INSERT FIGURE 2 ABOUT HERE Exploring the Structural-Process and Performance-Results Dimensions In previous research (Brudney, Hebert, and Wright, 1999; Brudney and Wright, 2002), some of the present authors reported and analyzed “overall” reform scores for reinvention across the states based on all eleven of the reform items discussed above. 16 Those scores consist of the mean responses of individual agency heads for their agency in the implementation of the eleven reinvention tools, aggregated to the state level. By contrast, here we present and examine the two dimensions of reform that were verified by the CFA: structure-process and performance-results. Table 1 presents mean state-level scores for the implementation of the structure-process reforms across agencies in a state, and Table 2 displays state-level mean scores for the performance-results dimension. The individual response options for each reform tool were: 0, No changes considered; 1, Considered, no action yet; 2, Action(s) planned; 3, Partially implemented; and 4, Fully implemented. INSERT TABLES 1 AND 2 ABOUT HERE An initial interpretation of these data reveals that the structural reforms were in the incipient stage during the 1990’s at the state level. Only four states display a mean above 2.0. Two of these states are not surprising as leaders in structural advancement; Texas has a reputation as one of the early leaders in reinvention, at least relaxing its budgetary processes (Tucker, 2002), and Florida State government aligned itself early with Total Quality Management philosophies (Braunbach and Burke, 1992). We should bear in mind that these statewide scores do not preclude greater (or less) individual agency achievement with respect to the structural reforms (and/or the performance-results reforms). As intimated by our comparison of the structural-process and performanceresults reforms above, the performance–related reforms appear much more successful, 17 with a mean score across all states of 2.81, and only two states with means below 2.5 (Alabama and Rhode Island). INSERT FIGURE 3 ABOUT HERE Are there in fact distinct strains of administrative reform across the American states, that is, states that choose structural approaches and others that choose to address performance characteristics? Figure three maps the contrast and convergence of the two reform strains, indicating a placement for each state as achievers on both reform dimensions. The figure displays some linearity (the Pearson correlation for the two dimensions is .62), such that the majority of states are either low in their implementation of both reform strains, or high on both dimensions. However, the figure shows that some state leadership teams appear to have chosen structure as their reform focus (Montana, Michigan, and Georgia), while other statewide groupings of political and administrative leaders concern themselves more actively with performance-results reforms (Maine, Louisiana, and Arizona). Table 3 adopts a different frame or level of analysis, to begin to review the hypothesis that reform efforts differ not only across states, but within states as well. The table presents the mean scores on implementation of the structure-process reforms and the performance-results reforms by agency type or function. The ASAP survey tracks the function of the different state agencies; Table 3 displays mean scores for respondents grouped by 13 major agency. 18 INSERT TABLE 3 ABOUT HERE The table shows that Criminal Justice agencies and those led by elected officials had lower mean implementation scores on both dimensions of reform. By contrast, Income Security and Social Service agencies scored high on structure-process and performance-results reforms -- a strong possible match with the welfare reform devolution during the middle and latter years of the 1990’s. Economic Development agencies appear to have a relatively greater focus on performance reforms with lower attention to structural reform options. The only apparent agency grouping to fall higher on the structural reform dimension and lower on the performance dimension is the set of Non-fiscal Staff agencies. The variation in mean scores across the functional classification revealed in Table 3 suggests that agency-level variables are important to the explanation of administrative reform. Concluding Observations This article has explored the dimensionality of Administrative Reform (AR) across the American states. We engage the body of research and commentary that treats a package of reforms commonly referred to as “reinvention” (but not always by that name) as a single, unidimensional phenomenon. This presumption is common and has guided research by us (and others) in the past (Burke and Wright, 2002; Brudney and Wright, 2002; Brudney, Hebert, and Wright, 1999). Based on a reexamination of the reform literature, however, we propose two different reform dimensions -- 19 structure/process reforms and performance/results reforms. We test their existence empirically with data from two successive surveys of the American State Administrators Project (ASAP), in 1994 and 1998. The data-base consists of responses from over 2,200 agency heads from all 50 states. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of the 11 reform items presented on the surveys provides convincing evidence of the existence of the structure/process and performance/results dimensions across the states. We initiate alternative explanations for the adoption of the two types of administrative reforms across the states. Results of such explanatory analyses may yield insights into reform of state bureaucracies. This area provides the foundation for our continuing research into the adoption of the two types of administrative reforms by the states, as one unit of analysis, and by the 2,200 administrative agencies. Agency Analysis One guiding hypothesis with the agency as the unit of analysis was that structure/process reforms will have lower rates of implementation across the states as compared with the performance/results reforms. Isn’t it easier to effect change in the way an agency operates and/or relates to clients than to change the structure, rules, and/or procedures of an organization? While the former change may be at the discretion of the agency head, the latter may require approval by the state legislature or the governor. The present analysis provides tentative support for this hypothesis -- the average percentage of partial/full implementation for the six structure/process items was 34% and 38% respectively in 1994 and 1998, compared to the averages for the five performance items of 69% and 77% (see also Tables 1 and 2). In further research we need to determine if these rates might be moderated by other variables: For example, does 20 incremental or comprehensive reorganization of state government (Berkman and Reenock, 2004) make the achievement of the two types of reform equally likely? Prior empirical research based on 1,000 agencies as the unit of analysis indicates that reorganization of state government state is, indeed, associated with a single reinvention dimension (Brudney, Hebert, and Wright, 1999). Reorganization’s effects on the two more nuanced dimensions of structure and performance reforms are unknown. Our model also incorporates a number of theoretically-informed hypotheses at the agency level. The 1994 and 1998 American State Administrators Project surveys provide the necessary data for empirical evaluation. First, as demonstrated above in the analysis of the reform dimensions by agency type, some functional areas are more amenable to change than others. Agencies differ in the level of adoption of structure/process reforms versus performance/results reforms (see Table 3). Second, we consider the environment of the agency with respect to the perceived influence of the governor, legislature, interest groups, professional associations, and the courts, as a factor in reform. We propose that agencies with greater (perceived) influence by interest groups will come under greater pressure to effect performance/results reforms to accommodate them; by contrast, when the governor, legislature, and the courts are more influential we anticipate more basic structural/process reforms in the way an agency is structured or operates. Third, the manner of appointment of the agency head is also crucial. With the governor often spearheading reform, agencies that feature an appointment procedure in which the governor has control or strong influence (such as appointment by the governor or appointment with legislative consent) are likely to evidence greater reform than those 21 in which the agency has a much freer (appointment) rein from the governor (for example, agencies headed by a popularly elected official). Fourth, we examine the effect of another agency-level variable, size, as measured by agency personnel. On the one hand, size is an impediment to change because it can act to make implementation more difficult. But on the other, the success of the reform effort rests in part on the adequacy of resources behind it, so that larger agencies may possess greater slack resources essential to implementation. In past research, agency size was positively related to the implementation of (unidimensional) reform across state agencies (Brudney, Hebert, and Wright, 1999). We hypothesize that larger size may be associated with greater adoption of performance/results reforms because they are easier to effect and do not require fundamental change. By contrast, the cost and difficulty of changing organizational structure increases with size, so that larger agencies will likely be much more phlegmatic in registering reforms in basic structure and administrative processes. State-Level Analysis Furthermore, we can test the dual-dimension patterns of reform based on the 50 states as the unit(s) of analysis. What state economic, social, political, policy, and institutional variables might help us reveal relationships involving the extent as well as the types of reform dimensions pursued by different states in the 1990’s? To explain implementation of the structure/process reforms and the performance/results reforms across the American states, we propose a model that incorporates three levels of analysis: state, agency, and individual. At the state level, because the governor often leads the reform charge, we anticipate that the formal powers 22 of the governor will be associated with adoption of both structure/process and performance/results reforms. We also expect political culture to bear a relationship, so that states with a more progressive culture should register higher in the adoption of the reforms. Finally, because the reforms are often predicated on an application of economic reasoning to public institutions, we anticipate that state ideology would also bear a relationship to the adoption of reforms. With regard to the performance/results dimension, especially, a relationship might be anticipated: these reforms are drawn directly from the philosophy and practices of some business and corporations (i.e., strategic plans for clear mission statements, training programs to improve customer service, quality improvement programs, benchmarking to measure outcomes, and measurement of customer satisfaction) and, thus, may be more likely in those states with a more conservative political outlook or ideology. Reform and the State Agency Public Manager The final set of variables intended to explain administrative reform pertains to the individual level, that is, the head or director of the agency. A variety of variables are available through the American State Administrators Project to test intriguing hypotheses regarding the role and influence of the agency director in the adoption of both structure/process and performance/results reforms across the American states. First, we propose that the administrator’s perceived influence over the agency will be strongly related to the adoption of reforms: Unless directors feel that they possess control over the agency, they are hardly likely to risk a major reform initiative. Reform is not only time, labor, and resource intensive, but also often unpopular and resisted by some agency stakeholders; in addition, reform may go unappreciated and unrewarded in 23 government. In our view, an agency head is much more likely to undertake reform if she or he perceives sufficient influence over the agency to proceed. Second and relatedly, the professed goals of agency directors, for example, to be recognized as a leader should also correlate with their interest and willingness to undertake reform. Third, as mentioned above, since the performance/results reforms are predicated on a private businesscorporate philosophy, agency heads who identify themselves personally as more conservative are more likely to implement them; we expect no, or certainly less relationship to the other reform dimension of structure/process changes. Similarly, we hypothesize that prior years of experience of the agency director in the private sector will result in a stronger penchant to apply the performance/results reforms in the public (state government) sector. Our model of the adoption of structure/process reforms and performance/results reforms by state agencies entails analysis of state, agency, and individual factors. 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Olson. 1983. “Organizing Political Life: What Administrative Reorganization Tells Us About Government.” American Political Science Review. 77(March):281-296. Mintzberg, Henry. 1994. The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning: Reconceiving Roles for Planning, Plans, and Planners. New York: The Free Press. National Commission on State and Local Public Service. 1993. Hard Truths/Tough Choices: An Agenda for State and Local Reform. Albany, NY: Nelson Rockefeller Institute of Government. Osborne, David, and Ted Gaebler. 1992. Reinventing Government: How the Entrepreneurial Spirit is Transforming the Public Sector. New York: Penguin Books. Osborne, David, and Peter Plastrik. 2000. The Reinventor’s Fieldbook: Tools for Transforming Your Government. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. Peters, B. Guy. 1996. The Future of Governing: Four Emerging Models. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas. Peters, B. Guy, and Donald J. Savoie. 1996. “Managing Incoherence: The Coordination and Empowerment Conundrum.” Public Administration Review. 56(May/June):281-290. Poister, Theodore H., and Gregory Streib. 1999. “Performance Measurement in Municipal Government: Assessing the State of the Practice.” Public Administration Review. 59(July/August):325-335. 27 Salamon, Lester M., ed. 2002. The Tools of Government. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Tucker, Laura. 2002. “Case Study: State of Texas.” Washington, D.C.: Governmental Accounting Standards Board. Accessible at: http://www.accounting.rutgers.edu/raw/seagov/pmg/sea_gasb_project/state_tx.pdf 28 Figure 1: Model for Measuring Structure-Process Dimension Using Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Note: N = 2,229. Goodness of Fit Index: 1.00. Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index: 1.00. Normed Fit Index: .99. Nonnormed Fit Index: .98. 0.72 HUM RES 0.66 MAN DI SC 0.53 0.58 0.85 PRI VI TE 0.39 STRUCTUR 0.46 0.79 LEVEL RE 0.57 0.23 0.76 0.49 DECENT 0.10 0.67 PROCUR Chi-Square=26.34, df=7, P-value=0.00044, RMSEA=0.035 1.00 29 Figure 2: Model for Measuring Performance Dimension Using Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Note: N = 2,229. Goodness of Fit Index: 1.00. Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index: 1.00. Normed Fit Index: 1.00. Nonnormed Fit Index: 1.00 0.81 TRAINING 0.21 0.43 0.73 QUALITY 0.52 PERFORM 0.62 0.07 0.62 BENCHMK 0.62 0.60 0.62 STPLAN 0.65 SYSMEASU Chi-Square=3.02, df=3, P-value=0.38920, RMSEA=0.002 1.00 30 Figure 3. Scatter Plot of States' Performance and Structure Scores SC OK TX FL 2.00 Structure Reform Scores OR MN GA VA 1.75 MI UT CA IA MT WA NY WY KY ID MO IN ND 1.50 OH MA CO WI NCSD KS IL WV PA MS NE DE HI 1.25 VT CT NJ MD AK AR AZ ME LA NM RI TNNH NV 1.00 AL 2.25 2.50 2.75 Performance Reform Scores 3.00 Table 1. State Performance Reform Scores State Performance N AL 2.14 48 AK 2.56 58 AZ 3.20 45 AR 2.56 36 CA 2.82 28 CO 3.05 52 CT 2.79 30 DE 2.65 45 FL 3.16 43 GA 2.79 47 HI 2.54 57 ID 2.92 44 IL 2.79 34 IN 2.79 47 IA 2.87 40 KS 2.77 40 KY 2.81 54 LA 3.01 33 ME 2.86 40 MD 2.79 58 MA 2.93 30 MI 2.73 53 MN 2.91 59 MS 2.72 42 MO 2.88 65 MT 2.62 61 NE 2.70 48 NV 2.68 42 NH 2.66 43 NJ 2.51 32 NM 2.73 49 NY 2.95 19 NC 2.75 65 ND 2.80 48 OH 3.08 55 OK 2.96 57 OR 3.18 49 PA 2.81 46 RI 2.38 50 SC 2.88 41 SD 2.77 36 TN 2.64 42 TX 3.13 36 UT 3.08 62 VT 2.64 47 VA 2.81 24 WA 2.89 40 WV 2.84 60 WI 2.97 63 WY 2.81 56 Total 2.81 2299 1 Table 2. State Structure Reform Scores State Structure Reform N AL 0.97 48 AK 1.17 55 AZ 1.36 43 AR 1.14 34 CA 1.71 27 CO 1.46 51 CT 1.26 27 DE 1.32 43 FL 2.05 40 GA 1.82 47 HI 1.26 57 ID 1.56 41 IL 1.37 34 IN 1.51 44 IA 1.70 38 KS 1.41 40 KY 1.57 54 LA 1.22 28 ME 1.23 36 MD 1.21 57 MA 1.48 29 MI 1.73 52 MN 1.84 58 MS 1.32 42 MO 1.53 65 MT 1.66 61 NE 1.38 45 NV 0.98 43 NH 1.00 41 NJ 1.22 31 NM 1.17 43 NY 1.60 19 NC 1.42 61 ND 1.48 48 OH 1.52 55 OK 2.10 57 OR 1.87 47 PA 1.35 45 RI 1.06 49 SC 2.14 39 SD 1.41 38 TN 1.00 38 TX 2.03 33 UT 1.75 62 VT 1.26 47 VA 1.76 24 WA 1.65 38 WV 1.37 60 WI 1.45 60 WY 1.58 55 Total 1.47 2229 2 Table 3. Performance and Structure Reform Scores by Functions Function Performance Reform N Structure Reform Elected Officials 2.55 82 1.35 Staff: Fiscal 2.83 141 1.68 Staff: Non-Fiscal 2.69 130 1.72 Income Security & Social Services 3.00 240 1.65 Education 2.86 128 1.45 Health 2.85 138 1.42 Natural Resources 2.82 254 1.57 Environmental & Energy 2.72 226 1.29 Economic Development 2.90 184 1.45 Criminal Justice 2.73 178 1.38 Regulatory 2.72 292 1.28 Transportation 2.93 132 1.58 Other 2.75 177 1.41 Total 2.80 2302 1.47 N 78 135 128 228 124 134 250 214 177 175 283 129 177 2232