SUPPLEMENTARY INSTITUTIONAL ENROLMENT PLANNING STATEMENT, 2007 TO 2010 * Purpose and scope of supplementary statement In this supplementary institutional enrolment planning statement, Stellenbosch University (SU) indicates how alleviation of growth constraints may contribute to enhanced enrolment growth and improved academic efficiency over the planning period 2007 to 2010. The growth constraints summarised here have all been mentioned in SU’s initial Institutional Enrolment Planning Statement; i.e. no new constraints were added for the purpose of this supplementary statement. SU’s planned growth pattern and constraints In its initial enrolment planning statement for 2006-2010 (see Tables 10 and 11), SU planned a conservative growth pattern, consolidating at the undergraduate level with a very small FTE student mean annual growth rate of 0.13%, while expanding steadily on the postgraduate level with a mean FTE student annual growth rate of 3.44%, giving an overall mean annual FTE growth rate of 0.93%. The background for this planned growth pattern is that the University is currently operating, in terms of staff and physical infrastructure, at or near full capacity in most of its undergraduate enrolment programmes and a significant portion of its postgraduate enrolment and research programmes. In certain areas, staff and physical capacity are already under such pressure that further efficiency gains can only be achieved at the expense of quality. These patterns are briefly reviewed below, indicating where additional resources are required to overcome or alleviate some of these constraints. Undergraduate inflow: SU is of the view that current pipeline and demographic factors do not signigicantly favour an increased inflow of new entrants at the undergraduate level. Moreover, new entrants will increasingly require higher levels of student support in the form of financial as well as academic assistance. Even a modest increase in the current undergraduate inflow levels at SU will therefore require additional investment in student support levels, as well as investment in multilingual teaching and learning provision, that is apart from requirements regarding infrastructure and equipment, to which we return later. Postgraduate inflow: SU’s 2005 postgraduate FTE enrolment of 22.9% is expected to grow significantly to 26.5% of the total FTE enrolment in 2010. The main source is SU’s own graduates which, for reasons given above, is not expected to increase significantly. In fact, even with improved throughput rates, the envisaged lack of undergraduate growth will increasingly require recruitment of postgraduate students from outside of SU. Currently, SU already recruits more than 20% of its annual postgraduate intake from the graduates of other universities, a significant proportion of which 9% are from other countries. An increased postgraduate enrolment and throughput would require additional provision for student financial and academic support. Infrastruture: Partly because of little or no state provision for building and equipment renewal and extension over the past decade (ie excluding residential accommodation), SU’s spatial occupation rates are currently close to full capacity or at full capacity. SU has little choice but to concentrate in the short term mainly on the smaller increments of space provision associated with increases in postgraduate enrolment (because much * Stellenbosch University’s initial Institutional Enrolment Planning Statement 2006 to 2010 was discussed with the Department of Education at a meeting in Cape Town on July 21, 2006. larger increments of additional space provision will be required for significant increases in undergraduate enrolments). This applies to all fields of study, but the problem of inadequate laboratory infrastructure and equipment provision is particularly acute in the relatively more expensive science, engineering and technology (SET) fields of study. SU remains committed to retain and develop its significant capacity and contribution in SET which it views both as a national asset to be treasured as well as a necessity for enhanced social and economic development. Evidence of its commitment is found in SU’s major strategic investments in these faculties. SU also experiences increased demand from industry and government to step up its academic output in these fields. However, this will require large additional capital investments (additional to the flow of funding expected from the funding formula) to renew outdated buildings and equipment especially in science laboratories in order to remain at the forefront of academically acceptable SET training and research standards. Staffing and throughflow: SU’s initial enrolment planning statement indicated its plans for improved efficiencies in terms of enhanced throughput and improved graduation rates. SU is of the view that its student-staff ratio’s may appear to be comparatively favourable, but this is to a large extent a reflection of the relatively high proportion of students enrolled at the postgraduate level and for professional qualifications such as teacher training, social work and health professions training programmes, and of the nature of tuition and research in a university with a strong presence in SET. These ratios are necessary to achieve the above-mentioned improvements in throughput and graduation rates and are intrinsic to the quality of SU’s provision and products. SU nonetheless strives to contain expenditure on staffing costs as close as possible to 60% of the main budget. During the past two years SU underwent major restructuring with a view to better achieving its strategic goals, which included careful expenditure reprioritization, personnel cost cuts by way of a voluntary early-retirement offer and various other savings. Together with SU’s current and envisaged conservative student fee policy (with annual adjustments being planned in line with inflation), all the above-mentioned factors have exerted downward pressure on remuneration levels. SU’s continued and improved performance in the academic field, together with the increased work load, implies a productivity increase to the benefit of higher education and the national economy in general. At the same time, the competitiveness of SU personnel, particularly in the academic field, not only with reference to market trends but also compared to peer group South African universities, is a major concern and constraint on SU’s growth ability. SU’s growth related investments: SU’s own efforts to alleviate some of the growth constraints include the following: (a) An investment of R48 million over the three years 2006 to 2008 to strengthen capacity in the SET fields of study, allocated from SU’s Strategic Fund, on the basis of approved faculty business plans. b) Provision for the renovation of building space to accommodate new technological developments in agricultural and biological sciences, of R22 million. (c) Special allocation by the SU Council of R14 million per year over three years ending in 2006 for bursaries for the recruitment of new entrant undergraduate students from disadvantaged backgrounds. (d) Special Strategic Fund allocation of R1,5 million in 2006 to start a programme to improve first year retention and throughput, called the First Year Academy, with the recurrent cost to be incorporated into future budgets. (e) Plans to develop a special capital expenditure fund to address building, laboratory infrastructure and research equipment backlogs in a well-planned manner commensurate 2 with the requirements of SU’s institutional enrolment plan. Council will be approached for base funding, with a view to gearing up government funding and loan capital (which will, inter alia, require negotiations with the Department of National Education to relax SU’s borrowing constraint). (f) Continuing efforts to diversify income streams and develop strategic partnerships. Proposal for higher growth in enrolments Projected higher growth in FTE students: Tables 10A and 11A (the numbering is commensurate with the initial Institutional Enrolment Planning Statement) show the number of FTE students (respectively according to course level and field of study) that SU is prepared to enroll in 2007-2010 in addition to the planned enrolments set out in its initial Institutional Enrolment Planning Statement for the period 2006-2010, provided that appropriate resources are made available as indicated further in Table S1. Tables 10B and 11B consolidate respectively Tables 10 and 10A and Tables 11 and 11A. The mean annual growth rates of the adjusted planned enrolments (as well as the original planned enrolments) appear in the separate columns on the right hand side of Tables 10, 11, 10B and 11B. It can be seen that the adjusted FTE undergraduate mean annual growth rate for the period 2005 to 2010 will increase from 0.13% to 1.02%, while the postgraduate mean annual growth rate for the same period will increase from 3.44% to 5.00%. Of the additional planned 996 FTE students in 2010, 373 will be on the postgraduate level (Table 10A), while 685 will be in SET (Table 11A). Postgraduate growth: The more aggressive postgraduate growth path will be spread over all disciplines. It will help to deliver the high level analytical, innovation and management skills necessary for the development of a knowledge economy. In this way, SU will also strengthen its contribution to South Africa’s next generation of academics. This growth path will require additional investment in library collections, space, staff and equipment, and will also need a strategy to recruit larger numbers of graduates from other universities, including student support. The strong emphasis on SET will require additional investment in equipment and laboratory infrastructure. Undergraduate growth focus areas: This supplementary growth strategy will inter alia support SU’s efforts to train an increased number of professionals. At the level of first degrees, the faculties of Education and of Science have developed a joint strategy to train science and mathematics teachers. In Business/Management Sciences, professional training programmes in accounting and actuarial sciences, both strongly reliant on mathematical and computational skills, will be sustained. The growth strategy will enhance the faculty of Arts’ language development programmes, including specifically African Languages, as well as programmes in multicultural communication and socioinformatics. The Science faculty’s infrastructure will be strengthened to provide a platform for undergraduate training in the basic as well as the applied sciences which are strongly reliant on capacity in the physical, mathematical and biological sciences. Agri-sciences could expand its contribution to the food production value chain and emergent farming systems. Expanded capacity is also needed to provide for the expected increased demand for trained engineers. (SU’s participation in the JIPSA initiative to expand SA’s pool of trained engineers required additional consideration, about which we will comment briefly below.) Growth related activities: Additional funding may also contribute to a more apprioriate workload distribution to improve the tuition quality in some high-risk areas outside the SET faculties. Financial and academic support for students will strengthen SU’s efforts to further diversify its student body. Multilingual teaching and learning programmes (especially by means of a policy of a limited parallel mode of instruction in Afrikaans and 3 English) on the undergraduate level may further enhance diversification and provide support for successful study. Major extraneous growth constraining factors: SU needs to reiterate that the main factors determining student inflow at SU will probably remain constrained over the next few years. These factors can be summarised as demographic, educational and financial. Demographic: Declining birthrates, at first in the White population group but lately also in the Coloured population group, indicate that the school population from these groups may not expand significantly and may decline in the case of Whites. Educational: These refer mainly to the number and quality of school leavers who are suitably prepared and qualified for university study, with special reference to those able to succeed in the SET fields of study. A major concern is that, despite improvement in pass rates and higher symbols in matric examinations, success rates of new entrants at university did not improve commensurately, and the pool of matrics with both science and mathematics did not expand significantly over the last couple of years. This is compounded by the uncertainty associated with the phasing in of a new secondary school curriculum and a new certification system in the planning period. Added to this is the fierce competition amongst universities in the Western Cape for suitably qualified matric candidates, especially amongst the previously disadvantaged population groups. Financial: Expansion of new entrants into higher education is now focused mainly on previously disadvantaged population groups who are often unable to afford university study and who can only be brought into full-time contact university study by very generous financial support to off-set their tuition and accommodation fees and opportunity costs. SU opted for a conservative tuition fee policy as described above, and is of the opinion that student financial aid from its own operating budget is already at a comparatively high level, from where it cannot be increased significantly without becoming unsustainable. Unfortunately NSFAS, the major public source of student financial aid, predicates its allocation to institutions on racial enrolment proportions. Currently this means that an institution must first have a significant number of black students before it can recieve a significant NSFAS allocation which, in the case of SU, severely curtails its ability to recruit students from financially disadvantaged backgrounds. (This constraint can be alleviated if the allocation of financial support to institutions is based on need rather proxied by race as is currently the case with NSFAS institutional allocations.) The fact that most of these factors are extraneous means that, even though SU manages its internal affairs as well as it could, the factors above depend not on SU’s own actions but on those of actors and agencies outside the control of the institution. SU is willing and able to play its part in the social and economic development of the country and the continent but as indicated above it has, with other institutions, only a limited ability to influence the factors determining enrolment inflow especially at the undergraduate level. SU would therefore like to place on record its concern that plans to increase enrolment growth are contingent upon extraneous factors over which it has little direct influence. JIPSA’s initiative to increase the production of registered engineers Apart from the Department of Education’s invitation to submit plans to enhance enrolment growth above the levels projected in its initial Institutional Enrolment Planning Statement, SU was approached by representatives of JIPSA to participate in the initiative to increase the production of registered engineers by about 1000 per year. 4 SU considered JIPSA’s request and decided to incorporate plans for an expanded enrolment in the B.Eng.-programme in this Supplementary Enrolment Planning Statement. This expanded enrolment in engineering is incorporated in the following manner: (a) Compared to SU’s limited undergraduate enrolment expansion plans, expanded enrolment in the undergraduate engineering programme was at a far higher level and thus required special provision of space and equipment. (b) SU normally produces about 10% of the engineering graduates in South Africa and thus would plan to produce 10% of the 1000, i.e. 100 additional graduates, for which it estimated that at current throughput rates an additional 150 students should be enrolled as first entrants. Because additional capacity will have to be constructed beforehand, the additional numbers can only be enrolled from 2008 onwards. (c) For any other costs associated with this initiative, the same methods of calculation were used as for the other programmes. Because this is a special initiative, the costs associated with SU’s response to the JIPSA initiative are shown separately in the last two lines of Table S1 (note that these costs are already incorporated in the Totals of this table). However, SU has to place on record its concern that plans for expanded enrolment growth in undergraduate engineering studies are subject, perhaps even more so, to the major growth constraining factors (demographic, educational and financial) mentioned in the previous section. Although SU is willing and able to play its part in the social and economic development of the country, plans to increase enrolment growth in undergraduate engineering are contingent upon extraneous factors over which it has little direct influence. Calculation of costs associated with increased enrolment growth Table S1 below provides estimates of the recurrent and non-recurrent expenditures, in 2006 prices, that need to be covered in the case of the adjusted planned enrolments. The totals for each year are also reflected in nominal rands. A brief description of the way in which the projected costs are calculated, is given in the notes that follow Table S1. Prepared by Division of Institutional Planning Approved by the Rector’s Management Team Stellenbosch University 21 September 2006 SU-Planning Statement suppl # 3.5.doc 5 TABLE 10 CONTACT STUDENTS ONLY: FTE ENROLMENTS BY COURSE LEVEL Actual enrolments Lower + intermediate undergraduate Higher undergraduate Total undergraduate Preparatory postgraduate Lower postgraduate Intermediate postgraduate Higher postgraduate Total postgraduate TOTAL Planned/expected enrolment Growth rate 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005-2010 10423 1140 11563 385 1396 1042 319 3142 14705 10509 1162 11671 529 1343 1307 329 3508 15179 10882 1315 12197 624 1245 1334 331 3534 15731 11496 1260 12756 787 1237 1308 327 3659 16414 11908 1312 13220 1033 1158 1334 337 3862 17082 12303 1380 13683 966 1378 1370 348 4062 17745 12251 1361 13612 1002 1357 1451 365 4175 17787 12154 1350 13504 1034 1400 1498 376 4308 17812 12309 1368 13677 1069 1448 1549 390 4455 18132 12409 1379 13788 1110 1502 1606 404 4622 18410 12397 1378 13775 1154 1563 1673 420 4811 18586 0.15 -0.03 0.13 3.63 2.56 4.08 3.84 3.44 0.93 TABLE 11 CONTACT STUDENTS ONLY: FTE ENROLMENTS BY FIELD OF STUDY Actual enrolments Planned/expected enrolment Science, engineering, technology Business/management Education Other humanities TOTAL Growth rate 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005-2010 6193 2593 495 5424 14705 6061 2707 604 5807 15179 6495 2778 550 5908 15731 6618 2844 617 6335 16414 6762 2868 797 6655 17082 7155 2845 915 6830 17745 7193 2840 929 6824 17787 7224 2833 943 6812 17812 7376 2872 972 6912 18132 7510 2904 999 6996 18410 7584 2924 1031 7047 18586 1.17 0.55 2.42 0.63 0.93 TABLE 10A CONTACT STUDENTS ONLY: ADDITIONAL FTE ENROLMENTS BY COURSE LEVEL Actual enrolments Planned/expected enrolment 2000 Lower + intermediate undergraduate Higher undergraduate Total undergraduate Preparatory postgraduate Lower postgraduate Intermediate postgraduate Higher postgraduate Total postgraduate TOTAL 2001 2002 2003 2005 2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 6 64 0 40 43 11 93 157 259 13 272 0 80 86 22 187 459 433 19 452 0 120 128 32 280 732 598 25 623 0 159 171 43 373 996 TABLE 11A CONTACT STUDENTS ONLY: ADDITIONAL FTE ENROLMENTS BY FIELD OF STUDY Actual enrolments Planned/expected enrolment 2000 Science, engineering, technology Business/management Education Other humanities TOTAL 0 2001 0 2002 0 2003 0 2004 0 6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 79 17 14 47 157 304 33 28 94 459 499 51 41 141 732 685 66 56 189 996 TABLE 10B CONTACT STUDENTS ONLY: ADJUSTED FTE ENROLMENTS BY COURSE LEVEL Actual enrolments Planned/expected enrolment Lower + intermediate undergraduate Higher undergraduate Total undergraduate Preparatory postgraduate Lower postgraduate Intermediate postgraduate Higher postgraduate Total postgraduate TOTAL Growth rate 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005-2010 10423 1140 11563 385 1396 1042 319 3142 14705 10509 1162 11671 529 1343 1307 329 3508 15179 10882 1315 12197 624 1245 1334 331 3534 15731 11496 1260 12756 787 1237 1308 327 3659 16414 11908 1312 13220 1033 1158 1334 337 3862 17082 12303 1380 13683 966 1378 1370 348 4062 17745 12251 1361 13612 1002 1357 1451 365 4175 17787 12212 1356 13568 1034 1439 1541 387 4401 17969 12568 1381 13949 1069 1528 1634 411 4642 18591 12842 1398 14240 1110 1622 1734 436 4902 19142 12995 1403 14398 1154 1723 1844 463 5184 19582 1.10 0.33 1.02 3.63 4.57 6.12 5.88 5.00 1.99 TABLE 11B CONTACT STUDENTS ONLY: ADJUSTED FTE ENROLMENTS BY FIELD OF STUDY Actual enrolments Planned/expected enrolment Science, engineering, technology Business/management Education Other humanities TOTAL Growth rate 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005-2010 6193 2593 495 5424 14705 6061 2707 604 5807 15179 6495 2778 550 5908 15731 6618 2844 617 6335 16414 6762 2868 797 6655 17082 7155 2845 915 6830 17745 7193 2840 929 6824 17787 7303 2850 957 6859 17969 7680 2905 1000 7006 18591 8009 2955 1040 7137 19142 8269 2990 1087 7236 19582 2.94 1.00 3.51 1.16 1.99 7 TABLE S1: SUMMARY OF ADDITIONAL COSTS FOR 2007-2010 (IN THE RAND OF 2006) RELATING TO INCREASED ENROLMENTS1) Cost item 2) 1. Capital costs of additional building space requirements 2007 R'000 2008 R'000 2009 R'000 2010 R'000 Total 25189 25189 25189 25189 100756 336 672 1008 2016 2. Maintenance of new buildings (see 1) 3. New equipment needed 721 3143 3143 3143 10150 4. New library collections 4693 4693 4693 4693 18772 5. Bridging funds for new appointments: Instruction/research pers. Other personnel 6782 3391 6782 3391 6. Bursaries for 80% of students 5015 13377 21541 24466 64399 7. Parallel mode of instruction for first year students in modules with relatively large enrolments 5150 5150 5150 5150 20600 8. Fixed assets recapitalisation 15 000 15 000 15 000 15 000 60000 TOTAL TOTAL (Nominal rands) 65941 69238 77061 84960 75388 87271 78649 95598 297039 337067 TOTAL:Undergrad Engineering 14818 TOTAL:Undergrad Engineering (Nom rands) 15559 21731 23958 22935 26550 26002 31605 85485 97672 13564 6782 1) See Tables 10A and 11A 2) Calculation of Cost item 1 : The building cost units of the 996 additional FTE-students were calculated by means of the national space and cost norms as approved by the Minister of Education in 1996. The total cost of R58.212m was distributed evenly across the years 2007-2010. Calculation of Cost item 2 : The usual assumption that the annual maintenance cost of a building should amount to 1.33% of its inventory value was made in this calculation. Calculation of Cost item 3: A cost estimate of the additional equipment needed for the annual increase of students by using the former SAPSE formula. Additional special needs for an additional electronic classsroom and an electro technique laboratory for Engineering are also included. Calcutation of cost item 4: A cost estimate of the additional library collections needed for the additional 996 FTE students by using the former SAPSE formula. Calculation of cost item 5: Since the funds for the additional FTE students enrolling in 2007 and 2008 will (according to the HE funding formula) only be allocated in 2009 and 2010, bridging funds for (especially) the additional appointments of personnel to service these students is necessary. The Instruction/research personnel cost for 2007 and 2008 are calculated under the assumption that the TIU per C1-personnel member should stay constant after the additional enrolments took place. The cost of support personnel needed in faculties to cope with the additional students is taken as 50% of C1-cost. Calculation of cost item 6 : Annual bursaries of R40 000 per student for the most needy 80% of students. Some students will complete their studies or drop-out after 1 or two years. Calculation of cost item 7: This cost is independent of the proposed additional student growth but relate to the existing (but unaffordable) desire of the SU to attract more African, Coloured and Indian first year students by means of the parallel mode of instruction, especially in modules with large enrolments on the first year undergraduate level. The cost is based on an institutional investigation of the cost for different scenarios of offering parallel mode of instruction on the undergraduate level. Calculation of cost item 8: It is estimated that at least R100m is needed in the next 3-5 years at the SU to renew outdated buildings and equipment in science laboratories in order to remain at the forefront of academically acceptable SET training standards. (See p 6 of SU Institutional Enrolment Planning Statement 2006-2010) Aanv DO-aansoek-Sep 2006: Sheet Costs-I 8 APPENDIX DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION :: REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA Prof CH Brink Vice Chancellor & Rector University of Stellenbosch Dear Prof Brink Ending of first phase of enrolment planning process: 2006-2010 The Department has held to date productive meetings with 21 of the 23 public higher education institutions on the first phase of the enrolment planning process for 2006-2010. Meetings with the remaining two institutions, and further discussions will be held during September 2006. As you are aware, meetings with institutions were guided by the September 2005 Ministerial Statement on Student Enrolment Planning, which stated that: (1) Enrolment plans must take account of the need for the higher education system to contribute to national human resource and research priorities; and in particular national programmes such as ASGISA and JIPSA. (2) Enrolment plans must be financially sustainable. (3) Enrolment plans must show that institutions are intent on improving graduation and success rates. (4) A differentiated approach to enrolment planning must be followed. Account must be taken of the circumstances of each institution, and in particular of its physical and human resources capacities and its overall student output performance. (5) This differentiated process should lead to an agreement between the Minister and each institution on the numbers and categories of students to be funded, and on graduates to be produced. At each of the meetings, the Department presented an overview of the enrolment planning context for the period up to 2010, together with an analyses of the planning proposals submitted by the institution concerned. This presentation formed the basis of the detailed discussion between the Department and respective institutions. The Department’s analysis of the enrolment plans for 2006-2010 shows a significant reduction in enrolment growth in 2005 and 2006 relative to the period 2000-2004. The head count total for the system was 745 000 in 2004, 743 000 in 2005, and expected to be approximately 750 000 in 2006. The projections of enrolment growth presented by institutions would, if they were realised, result in a total head count of approximately 800 000 students by 2010. This would represent an average annual growth of 1.5% between 2005 and 2010, compared to the average annual growth of 6% between 2000 and 2005. Institutions provided different reasons for the slowing down of their student enrolment growth, including the following: 9 That the Department would not approve enrolment totals above the limits suggested during the 2004/2005 planning process. Institutions have reached or are over their carrying capacity as far as the provision of physical space and teaching staff are concerned. Particular mention was made in business/management and SET fields. Institutions planned to use 2006-2010 as a period of consolidation to improve pass rates, graduation rates and quality, after the rapid enrolment growth that occurred in 2000-2004. The Department heeded these reasons, in particular the need for consolidation and focus on improving quality and throughput rates. A number of institutions indicated that it might be possible to increase enrolments and graduation in targeted scarce skills areas if additional resources were available. Institutions were invited to submit revised enrolment planning proposals to the Department based on the initial discussions, which could include the resource demands for realising their targets. Amended enrolment plans, including addenda on additional funding requirements, should be submitted to Dr Bernadette Johnson of the Higher Education Planning Directorate of the Department of Education by Friday 29 September 2006. Dr Johnson’s contact details are: E-mail: johnson.b@doe.gov.za Phone: 012 312 5294 Queries on any aspect of this process may be raised with Dr Johnson or Prof Ian Bunting. His contact details are set out below: E-mail: iabunting@telkomsa.net Phone: 021 532 3081 Cell: 083 441 9721 Yours sincerely Molapo Qhobela PhD Acting Deputy Director General – Higher Education Date (signed 5/9/06) 10