Draft Agenda (as of Sept. 12th, 2008)
The Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA)
2008 PIs Meeting
9/29-10/1/2008
Hilton Silver Spring, MD
The primary objective of the meeting is to review PIs’ scientific achievements during last
two years. The meeting is an opportunity for PIs to interact and have an overview of the
entire CPPA program and its future plans.
Following scientific presentations, there will be discussion sessions focusing on:
1) gaps of knowledge
2) impact of past field experiments
3) future near-term priorities & specific activities
4) paths to improved climate and hydrologic operations
Day 1 (Monday, Sept. 29)
08:00-08:30
Registration and Continental Breakfast
08:30-12:00
Program and Science Overviews
08:50-09:10
09:10-09:25
09:25-09:40
Chair: J. Huang
Welcome and CPPA Program Overview
(J. Huang and A. Mariotti)
NOAA Climate Services (C. Koblinsky)
GEWEX (P. Van Oevelen)
CLIVAR (D. Legler)
09:40-10:00
Coffee Break
08:30-08:50
11:40-11:45
11:45-12:00
Chair: A. Mariotti
Overview on Climate Predictability and Prediction (S. Schubert)
NCEP CFS issues and future plans (S. Lord)
GFDL climate model issues (L. Donner)
Hydrologic Applications: CPPA potential contributions to
NOAA’s Climate Services vision (E. Wood)
Canada Drought Research Initiative (DRI) (R. Stewart)
CPPA data management (S. Williams)
12:00-13:00
Lunch
10:00-10:25
10:25-10:50
10:50-11:15
11:15-11:40
13:00:15:00
13:00-13:15
13:15-13:30
13:30-13:45
13:45-14:00
14:00-14:15
14:15-14:30
Climate phenomena: Drought & Extremes
Chair: R. Leung
Multi-basin influences on the precipitation anomalies over the
Americas (H-P Huang)
Model dependence on responses over the U.S. to leading patterns
of SST variability (H-L Wang and S. Schubert)
Extent of SST influence on North American Summer
Hydroclimate (S. Nigam)
Understanding controls on tropical convective margins and their
variability (B. Lintner and D. Neelin)
Impacts of Surface Conditions on Flooding in the Western US (R.
Leung)
Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Climate and Hurricanes (C-Z
Wang)
14:30-15:00
Discussion on Drought and Extremes (Lead: S. Schubert, CoLead: R. Leung)
15:00-15:30
Coffee break
15:30-17:30
Climate phenomena: Monsoons
15:30-15:45
15:45-16:00
16:00-16:15
16:15-16:30
16:30-16:45
16:45-17:00
Chair: A. Douglas
Synthesis of results from NAME (D. Gochis)
The Diurnal Cycle of Convection in the NAME Domain (R.
Johnson)
The 2008 NAME Forecast Forum (J. Schemm)
Coupled interactions of the monsoons (V. Misra)
Interannual and regional variations of South American monsoon
onset: Insights from satellite observations of precipitation and
convective structure (T. Rickenbach)
Long-Term Changes In The South American Monsoon System (C.
Jones)
17:00-17:30
Discussion on Monsoons
Douglas)
18:00- 20:00
Icebreak & Poster Session
(Lead: D. Gochis, Co-lead: A.
Day 2 (Tuesday, Sept. 30)
08:00-08:30
Continental Breakfast
08:30-09:50
Process and Modeling Studies: Overviews
08:30-08:50
08:50-09:10
09:10-09:30
09:30-09:50
Chair: P. Webster
VAMOS Process Studies (H. Berbery)
Marine Boundary-Layer and Cloud Analysis (C. Fairall)
Land Surface and Hydrology Processes (D. Lettenmaier)
Multi-RCM ensemble downscaling of global seasonal forecasts
(MRED) (R. Arritt)
09:50-10:15
Coffee Break
10:15-17:00
Parallel Sessions (I): Process and modeling studies: air-sea
interactions
10:15-10:30
10:30-10:45
10:45-11:00
11:00-11:15
11:15-11:30
Chair: R. Mechoso
Overview on Cloud Variability in the Southeast Pacific
Stratocumulus Regime (B. Albrecht)
NOAA ship observations for assessing fluxes and cloud analyses
and simulations over the southeasthern Pacific Ocean (S. De
Szoeke)
Cloud-resolving and single-column model simulations compared
with the EPIC (C. Bretherton)
Meridional SST Gradient, Surface Winds, and Low Clouds over
the SE Pacific (Y-Q Wang)
Mixed layer modeling of the east Pacific warm pool during boreal
summer (E. Maloney)
11:30-12:00
Discussion on Air-Sea Interactions (Lead: C. Bretherton, Colead: R. Mechoso)
12:00-13:30
Lunch
13:30-13:45
13:45-14:00
14:00-14:15
14:15-14:30
14:30-14:45
Chair: S. Nigam
Modulation of Mid Summer Drought in Mexico (A. Douglas)
Mapping the spatial extent of the Central American Mid-summer
drought (Douglas, M)
Explore temporal variations of the forcing and feedbacks for
summer droughts in the SE US (R. Fu)
Influence of SST on the NAMS Diurnal Cycle: Preliminary
Results (P-P Xie)
Improved precipitation data for the study of the North American
Monsoon (S. Nesbitt)
14:45-15:00
Precipitation Estimates over South-America during SALLJEX (C.
Saulo and J. Paegle)
15:00-15:30
Coffee Break
15:30-15:45
15:45-16:00
16:15-16:30
16:30-16:45
16:45-17:00
Chair: E. Maloney
Intraseasonal Variability Of The Monsoon Systems In The
Americas: Origin And Predictability (P. Webster)
Tracking tropical easterly waves across Central America and
Mexico (Y. Serra)
Transient Activity and its Relation to Climate Variability in the
Americas (B. Liebmann)
Sensitivity Analysis of WRF Forecasts in Arizona During the
Monsoon Season (C. Castro)
Optimizing Cumulus Parameterizations Ensemble to Improve
Precipitation Prediction (X-Z Liang)
17:00 -17:30
Discussion: Warm Season and Monsoon Climate Variability
(Lead: R. Johnson, Co-lead: E. Maloney)
10:15-17:30
Parallel Sessions (II): Process and modeling studies: LandAtmosphere Interactions
10:15-10:30
10:30-10:45
10:45-11:00
11:00-11:15
11:15-11:30
Chair: R. Koster
Global and seasonal assessment of interactions between climate
&vegetation (Y. Xue)
Effects of vegetation dynamics on the relations between ET and
soil moistur (E. Vivoni)
Modeling and Statistical Assessment of Vegetation-Climate
Interactions (M. Notaro)
Coupling Soil-Canopy Processes to Nitrogen Dynamics: Impacts
of Root Moisture Uptake and Hydraulic Redistribution (P. Kumar)
Impact of irrigation on land surface fluxes (M. Ozdogan)
11:30-12:00
Discussion on Land-Atmosphere Interactions (Lead: Y. Xue,
co-lead: R. Koster)
12:00-13:30
Lunch
13:30-13:45
13:45-14:00
Chair: K. Mitchell
Seasonal Hydroclimate Variability over North America: Global
and Regional Reanalyses Faulty Evapotranspiration (A. RuizBarradas)
Climate state and dynamical responses to idealized snow forcings
over North America (S. Sobolowski and K. Gong)
14:00-14:15
14:15-14:30
14:30-14:45
14:45-15:00
15:00-15:30
15:30-15:45
15:45-16:00
16:15-16:30
16:30-16:45
16:45-17:30
How complex should a snow model be? (X. Liang)
Improving Parameter Estimation in a Land Surface Model by
Using GRACE Water Storage Data (M. Lo and J. Famiglietti)
Application of NARR-Based NLDAS Ensemble Simulations to
Continental-Scale Drought Monitoring (D. Mocko and B.
Cosgrove)
Objective Climate Drought Monitoring and Forecasts over the
United States (K. Mo)
Coffee Break
Chair: X. Liang
Evaluation of the Community Noah Land Surface model against
tower flux data (D. Gochis)
The Multi-Model Approach for Soil Moisture Analyses in the
Absence of Verification Data (Y. Fan and H. Van den Dool)
Sensitivity Study of NOAH Land Model Response to Different
Atmospheric Models (L. Zhang)
How much do different land models matter for climate simulation:
results from an atmospheric model coupled to three land models (J.
Wei)
Discussion on Land-Atmosphere Interactions (Lead: L. Leung,
Co-lead: K. Mitchell)
Day 3 (Wednesday, Oct.1)
08:00-08:30
Continental Breakfast
08:30 -10:30
Improving Climate Models and Predictions
08:30-08:45
08:45-09:00
09:00-09:15
09:15-09:30
09:30-09:45
09:30-09:45
09:45-10:00
Chair: P. Dirmeyer
An Assessment of the Diurnal Cycle over the Great Plains in
Global Climate Models (M. Lee and S. Schubert)
Summer and Winter Season Reforecasts with the NCEP Coupled
Forecast System (CFS) Using Different Land Models and Different
Initial Land States (K. Mitchell)
GLACE-2: A Study of the Impacts of Land Initialization on
Forecast Skill (R. Koster)
Improving Hydrological Representation in the Community Noah
Land Surface Model for Intra-seasonal to Interannual Prediction
Studies (Z-L Yang)
The experimental regional seasonal ensemble forecast at NCEP (H.
Juang)
An analysis of SST errors in the tropical eastern Pacific in the
NCEP CFS (W-Q Wang)
To improve modeling, simulation and prediction of the tropical
climate with coupled GCMs (R. Mechoso)
10:00-10:30
Discussion on Improving Climate Models and Predictions
(Lead: Higgins, Co-Lead: P. Dirmeyer)
10:30-10:45
Coffee Break
10:45-12:15
Applications of Climate Predictions
10:45-11:00
11:00-11:15
11:15-11:30
11:30-11:45
11:45-12:15
12:15-13:15
Chair: K. Mo
Drought Monitoring and Prediction via CPPA Partnership in the
North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at
NCEP: Status and Plans (K. Mitchell)
Applying climate prediction for hydrologic forecast - OHD Core
Project (P. Restrepo)
Experimental Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction System (E. Wood)
Applying climate information for ecosystem prediction (N. Zeng)
Discussion on Applications of Climate Predictions (Lead: E.
Wood, Co-lead: K. Mo)
Lunch
13:15-15:00
13:15-13:30
13:30-13:45
13:45-14:00
14:00-14:15
14:15-14:30
Improving Hydrologic Forecasts
Chair: P. Restrepo
Strategy for Using of CPC Precipitation and Temperature
Forecasts to Create Ensemble Forcing for NWS Ensemble
Streamflow Prediction (J. Schaake)
NASA Land Information System Multi-Model Ensemble
Hydrologic Predictions (D. Toll)
Uncertainty Analysis of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
(X. Gao and S. Sorooshian)
Uncertainty and Assimilation in Hydrologic Forecasting (A. Slater)
Seasonal Hydro- climatology Prediction Using the tRIBS-WRF
Coupled Model (U. Narayan and R. Bras)
14:30-15:00
Discussions on Improving Hydrologic Forecasts (Lead: M.
Clark, Co-lead: P. Restrepo)
15:00
Adjourn