Standardized Idea and Decentralized Power? Standardized Idea and Decentralized Power? Global Transformation and Its Reflection in Asia-Pacific Region Yang Yuanfuyi 3120000042 Abstract: This essay proposes a structural view for analyzing global transformation. With the booming of multilateral institutions and democratization, global transformation therefore should not be confined to the scope as “power shift”. This essay argues that global transformation is embedded in the tide of evolving globalization, defined as the stage shits of globalization. Through the dichotomy between material and idea, this essay explicates how to examine global transformation and its reflection in Asia-Pacific region. Facing global transformation, China should make herself understandable and build benign relations with other regional players. Global Transformation: Definition and Periodization With the end of Cold War and the build-up of American’s position as the only superpower, the rise of China has provoked a concern about global transformation. Some argue that the global transformation is the power shift between China and America which may lead to a bipolar future and inflamed regional conflicts1. But that does not address the whole story. China is not a nasty child who wants to get the best toy from the declining brother. Neither does the word “declining” make any sense. America still enjoys the overwhelming military, economic and cultural advantage.2 Global transformation should imply more than power shift while deeply embedded in the process of globalization. In this essay, I argue that the global transformation is the stage shift of globalization. To clarify my statement, a brief definition about globalization and different stages of globalization are helpful. Globalization itself does present a complex, even confusing picture under examination from different perspectives. Globalization can be an evolutionary process in the making for an extended period of human history as part of a longue durée.3 It can also be a unique occurrence that started in the latter part of the twentieth century. 4 Some also consider it as the process of how extensional modernity developed into the whole world. Others may take an instrumental way of the new technic invention and the following intensified interaction. What I argue See 门洪华: 《权力转移、问题转移与范式转移——关于霸权解释模式的探索》 , 《美国研究》 ,2005 年第 3 期;唐健: 《权力转移与战争: 国际体系、国家模式与中国崛起》 , 《当代亚太》 ,2014 年第 3 期;沈丁立: 《全球与区域阶层的权力转移:兼论中国的和平崛起》 , 《复旦大学学报(社会科学版)》 ,2009 年第 5 期;罗 伯特·S.罗斯: 《中国崛起、地区权力转移与东亚安全:从 1949 年到 21 世纪》 , 《世界经济与政治》 ,2009 年 第 11 期;马荣久: 《中美权力转移与亚洲地区体系》 , 《当代亚太》 ,2014 年第 1 期。 2 See Fareed Zakaria, “The Future of American Power: How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, Issue 3 (2008). 3 Barry K Gills and William R.Thompson, “Globalization and Global History”, (New York and London: Routledge, 2006), p210-215. 4 Peter N. Stearns,” Globalization in World History”, (New York and London: Routledge, 2010), p1-12. 1 1 Standardized Idea and Decentralized Power? here is not the technic invention nor modernity, but a structural change as the consequence of globalization. I will follow the old-fashioned philosophical dichotomy of material and ideational to examine the stages of globalization and to show how they shift as structural changes(good). The reason is twofold. Firstly, material factors, whether political power or economic power, are the primacy in global transformation and they are commonly believed by many scholars as what is playing currently in the global stage, like the terminology as “power shift”. Secondly, the influence of idea can never be diminished. We are in a game with UN Security Council, multilateral frameworks and intergovernmental institutions all due to the spread and acceptance of western idea like liberalism, democratic legitimacy and international norms. Those ideas largely constitute how the rising power plays with the dominant power and other players by mutually intensified interactions with material factors. As the constructivists put, ideas defines the intersubjective meaning of material.5 Therefore, simple diminishment that takes idea as a prerequisite or the consequence of material changes is not desirable in this essay. As for the measurement of globalization, I borrowed the concept of decentered/centered globalism from Barry Buzan. 6 However, here I want to present a more complex picture of decentered/centered globalism through the interaction between material and ideational factors. At the risk of oversimplification, I build the 2d coordinates to show the different stages of globalization7. (See picture1) Picture1: Different Stages of Globalization (Good!) 【美】亚历山大﹒温特: 《国际政治的社会理论》 (影印版),北京:北京大学出版社,第 92-134 页。 Barry Buzan, “A World Order Without Superpowers: Decentered Globalism”, International Relations, 25:1 (2011), p3-25. 7 The material here mainly refers to political and economic power, while the ideational here refers to institutional and cultural factors. 2 5 6 Standardized Idea and Decentralized Power? One remaining question is the birth of globalization. Starting with different disciplines, we get the different chronology of globalization, with anthropology of 3000 BC, sociology of 1800s, economics of 1970s, etc.8 In this essay, I take the early 19th century as the start point of analysis. The reason is threefold.9 First, it is the period that the west really touched the east through the wave of colonization. Second, the establishment of market and the new invented mode of state-building has significantly shape the picture of modern society. Finally, it is the period accumulated with the birthdays of ideologies prevailing in modern context. Following this chronology, the whole process of globalization until now can be divided into three phases: from the early 19th century to the end of Cold War, the very short period from the end of Cold War to 2008, and from 2008 until now. (Also see picture1) But it needs attention that this periodization is quite ambiguous which requires further discussion. Furthermore, what I want to explicate through periodization is the continuously gradual accumulation and decumulation of the two factors, therefore, any clear-cut chronology may be misleading. During the first phase (when?), we get a centered globalization in both material and ideational sides. In material, a periphery-core structure has come into mature with huge power gap both in political and economic between the core and the periphery. 10 In ideational, although institutional idea like multilateralism had stepped forward, the simplification of ideology symbolized as the line between capitalism and communism came into climax during the Cold War. Also, the global culture was under the process of westernization or, more precisely, Americanization. Therefore, the idea was highly centered in the first phase. In the second phase (between ? and ?), the gap between core and periphery did not make too much change while the idea made a difference. The reactivation of multilateral frameworks and the Third Wave of Democratization 11 had created huge divergence. In the meanwhile, anti-Americanization gained much louder voice and peaked with the disastrous 9/11 . In the third stage, the power gap is shrinking with the rise of the rest, so leading to the power diffusion.12 However, the idea is undergoing a centered trend. That is not to say the cultural divergence and religious conflicts do not exist anymore. What I want to address is its unchanging existence in cultural side and new breakthroughs in institutional side. It is true, that the Al Qaeda are still threatening to 扬·内德温·彼埃特思: 《分期中的全球化: 全球化的诸历史》 ,张广、周思成译, 《国外理论动态》 ,2013 年第 1 期,第 11 页。 9 See Barry K Gills and William R.Thompson, “Globalization and Global History”, (New York and London: Routledge, 2006); Peter N. Stearns,” Globalization in World History”, (New York and London: Routledge, 2010); A.G.Hopkins, “Globalization in World History”, (London: Pimlico, 2002); Barry Buzan and George Lawson, “Capitalism and the Emergent World Order”, International Affairs, 90:1(2014); 巴里﹒布赞、理查德﹒利特尔: 《世界历史中的国际体系——国际关系研究的再构建》 ,刘德斌主译,北京:高等教育出版社。 10 Paul Krugman, “What's new about the new economic geography?”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy ,Volume 14, Issue 2 (1998), p7-17. 11 Samule P. Huntington, “The Third Wave, Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century”, (Norman and London :University of Oklahoma Press , 1991), p3-5. 12 See Alice H. Amsden, “The Rise of "the Rest": Challenges to the West from Late-industrializing Economies”, (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001). 3 8 Standardized Idea and Decentralized Power? put America into fire and the newborn IRIS does get some attention. But their influences have got limited. On the contrary, multilateralism as an institutional arrangement is reshaping how actors play regardless of their cultural and religious background through its gigantic influence of legitimizing players’ actions in international affairs. Other institutional ideas as democracy and market even start to break the absolute border between domestic and international areas. This centered ideational trend is a relay of international socialization since the end of WWII. Asia-Pacific Region: Regional Episode as Stage Shift Asia-Pacific is the stage where most shifts take place. It contains most “big players” in world politics except for EU. It is obviously true, as Barry Buzan put 13, that a decentered globalism leading to regionalized international order will render those great powers more possibility to play regional hegemony. However, Asia-Pacific is possible to jump out of that regionalized hegemonic future for two reasons. First, the players in Asia-Pacific are big enough to resist one dominant player in this region where the main rising powers, like China and India, and main declining powers, like America and Japan, are crowding together. Second, the multilateral institutions like ASEAN and APEC, has come into mature and are playing a more active role in this region, which will be address more precisely in the following part. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that the future of this region can be explicated in the above framework: decentered material (power) and centered idea. The picture of decentered material (power) in Asia-Pacific cannot be more perceptible. America is declining but still vigorous with the advantaged military cover, technical leadership and enormous global economic share, remaining as an attraction for immigration, capital and foreign investment.14 Japan, although keeping static economic growth for 20 years, still has the capability to play as a great power with a good reputation of transparent market, democratic government and technic leadership. The curative effect of abeconomics is just about to work.15 As for the rising power, China has the second largest national economy and by far the world’s largest current account surplus and foreign exchange reserves, therefore, some take China as a global economic superpower with rising military capability characterized with the Dongfeng series of missile and submarine.16 In the meanwhile, India will reach? the demographic dividend from 2025 which may fuele her economy.17 In the meanwhile, other great powers like Australia and ASEAN with more possible 13 Barry Buzan, “A World Order Without Superpowers: Decentered Globalism”, International Relations, 25:1 (2011), p3-25. 14 See Fareed Zakaria, “The Future of American Power: How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, Issue 3 (2008). 15 王志刚,周永刚等: 《经济刺激计划能否将日本带出通货紧缩泥沼?——基于安倍经济学的政策效果评 价》 , 《教学与研究》 ,2014 年第 3 期,第 12-18 页。 16 C. Fred Bergsten, Charles Freeman, Nicholas R. Lardy and Derek J. Mitchell, “China’s Rise: Challenges and Opportunities”,(Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2009), p9-33. 17 C. P. Chandrasekhar, Jayati Ghosh and Anamitra Roychowdhury, “The 'Demographic Dividend' and Young India's Economic Future”, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 41, No. 49 (2006), p5055-5064. 4 Standardized Idea and Decentralized Power? executive capability in the future will make the picture more complicated under the unprecedentedly integrated economic interdependence.18 However, the decentered material (power) is associated with centered idea which cannot be diminished by explosively cultural diversity. Centered idea in Asia-Pacific region is the microcosm of grand international socialization since the end of WWII. First, institutional norms like democracy and multilateralism have gradually shaped regional affairs through the cooperation and legitimation both domestic and international. Since the late 20th century, the establishment of multilateral institutions were booming, tackling a wide range of issues gradually from economic cooperation to transnational challenges with the shrinking of bilateralism.19 In the meanwhile, under the influence of Third Wave of Democratization, democratic transition has occurred in many Asia-Pacific states. 20 Second, the increasing challenges proposed by non-traditional security have put all the states in the same boat. The environmental cooperation and disaster management in Northeast Asia have provoked profound influence in reconstitution of regional cooperation.21 The tsunami happened in Indonesia also provided a new picture to show how states can cooperate under disastrous common threat. Under the influence of dual function combined institutional norms and external common threat, states must play the similar way and share responsibility together, following the logic of multilateralism in politics and market in economy regardless of cultural background. Conclusion: China’s Response Facing Global Transformation The question is what we should do. Before answering to that, a simple clarification of two facts may shed a light. The first thing is that it is impossible for China to players hegemony or rewrite the rule, neither political nor economic. Both big plays and small players are extremely alert to any expansive motion. And AIIB is just a new game initiated by China following the settled economic rule. The second thing is that it is impossible to exclude America from this region nor to expect America to play Monroe doctrine again. Therefore, given the global trend and those facts, what we can do is to play with them rather than play against. First, China should at least makes herself understandable. This contains two factors: subtraction and addition. The former implies China should consider twice before claiming any Chinese characteristic which may easily make others confused and distance those potential collaborators. The later asks for more multilateral involvement and constitution, where the AIIB and APEC can be took as good examples. Second, China should build benign relations with other players by deepening domestic reforms and bringing into some new thinking about America. Cursed by the tradition of nationalism, rising China always faces the danger of losing control in dealing with territory disputes. Under this circumstances, the military existence of America does have some positive 18 Amitav Acharya, “Power Shift or Paradigm Shift? China's Rise and Asia's Emerging Security Order”,International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 58 Issue 1(2014), p158-173. 19 Ibid. 20 Ibid. 21 Shunji Cui, “Beyond History: non-traditional security cooperation and the construction of Northeast Asian international society”, Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 22(2013), p868-886. 5 Standardized Idea and Decentralized Power? meaning as external constraints forcing China to behave more calmly. On the other hand, appropriate concessions to ensure moderate relationship with America can engender more space in dealing with conflictual disputes with neighbors. China has deeply involved in the process of global transformation, where there is no way to escape and no hope for subversion. However, the role is waiting for to be chosen. What can we expect, an constructive initiator or a passive conformist? Comments: It is an outstanding essay, with some creative thinking. Well done! Shunji Cui 6