A Probabilistic Prediction of Beach Nourishment Evolution E. Benassai (1), M. Calabrese (1,2) and G. Sorgenti degli Uberti (1,3) (1) University of Naples Federico II, Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Eng. “G. Ippolito”, Via Claudio, 21 - 80125 Naples, Italy. Tel: +39-81-7683426 Fax: +39 81 5938936 E-mail: [email protected] (2) E-mail: [email protected] (3) E-mail: [email protected] Abstract A II level probabilistic analysis for predicting the lifetime of a beach nourishment project has been proposed. Considering that the new wider beach serves as shore protection by storms and to increase recreational benefits, it has been assumed that the beach reaches its failure state when its width becomes lower than a specified minimum. With reference to the one-dimensional equation of the beach planform evolution, the limit state function has been evaluated adopting an analytical formulation, which assumes curvilinear and parallel contours landward the beach nourishment project. In order to investigate the effects of the project’s geometry and of the fill material nature on the probability of failure, a sensitivity analysis has been performed. Introduction In the last century, the anthropogenic modifications of the coastal areas due to the increasing of human activities and to the exploitation of hydraulic and sediment resources of rivers have caused diffused beach erosion and more in general substantial modifications of the coastal asset.