probabilistic dataset

advertisement

UKCIP08 DDP

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

Version History

Version

Number

0.1

Who?

0.2

Date

Ag Stephens

(AS)

AS

01/10/07

03/10/07

Notes

First Draft

0.3

0.3.2

Charles

Kilburn

(CADK)

AS

05/10/07

16/10/07

Completed the UKCIP08 dataset listings so sending out for info sharing.

Removed section 9 and changed some ‘probable number of files’ rows

Updated marine stuff and use cases for plots and subsetting etc.

Circulation

Stage 1: The BADC team – for review

Stage 2: Project wiki

Contents

Introduction

........................................................................................................................................................................ 2

Note on Priorities and Key Datasets................................................................................................................................... 3

Terminology

........................................................................................................................................................................ 3

WHAT ARE THE DATASETS? ............................................................................................. 3

DETAILS OF EACH DATASET ............................................................................................ 4

1.

UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land

........................................................................ 4

2.

UK Probabilistic Projections of Future Climate over Land

............................................................................ 8

3.

UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change

.......................................................................................... 10

1

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

4.

Weather Generator Output

................................................................................................................................ 12

5.

Projections of Storm Surge Height for UK Waters

.......................................................................................... 15

6.

Past and Future Multi-level Ocean Projections for UK Waters .......................................................................... 18

7.

Projections of Sea Level Rise for UK Waters ........................................................................................................ 20

8.

UKCIP02 UK 5 km Climatologies .......................................................................................................................... 22

9.

MOHC HadRM3-PPE Daily Future Regional Climate Output........................................................................... 24

10.

MOHC HadRM3-PPE Daily Future Regional Climate Model Simulations .................. Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

11.

MOHC HadGEM1 Global Climate Model Simulations................................................................................... 25

12.

MOHC HadCM3 Global Climate Model Simulations ..................................................................................... 26

13.

MOHC HadRM3 Regional Climate Model Simulations .................................................................................. 27

14.

MOHC HadGEM3 Global Climate Model Simulations................................................................................... 27

15.

MOHC HadCM3-OA??? Global Climate Model Simulations ........................................................................ 27

Introduction

The purpose of the UKCIP08 Data Delivery Package (DDP) and Climate Impacts LINK Project

(hereafter, LINK) Dataset Details document is to provide an overview of the key datasets that fit under the banner of the Defra Climate Impacts Project (DCIP). For each dataset, this document aims to provide a table of information covering:

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1, ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

2

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

Probable Number of files

Data will be subset/sampled as follows

Use Cases

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

Note that this entire document and its content are evolving so many of the details will change in the next 9 months.

Details of the project itself can be found at: http://proj.badc.rl.ac.uk/dcip/wiki/

Note on Priorities and Key Datasets

From the point of view of Defra (the project sponsor) a clear priority has been stated for the

UKCIP08 targets to be met. Hence all issues relating to UKCIP08 datasets should be

considered higher priority than those labelled as LINK only.

Terminology

In this document the terms below have the following meanings:

“BADC” is the British Atmospheric Data Centre.

MOHC” is the Met Office Hadley Centre.

NCL” is Newcastle University.

“UEA” is the University of East Anglia.

“POL” is the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory.

“DDP” means the entire DDP system (i.e. the outer boundary in figure 1).

What are the Datasets?

The datasets that we will receive, and make available, under the DDP and LINK will be:

1. UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land

2. UK Probabilistic Projections of Future Climate over Land

3. UK Probabilistic Projections of Marine Climate Change

4. Weather Generator Output

3

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

5. Projections of Storm Surge Height for UK Waters

6. Past and Future Multi-level Ocean Model Simulations for UK Waters

7. Projections of Sea Level Rise for UK Waters

8. UKCIP02 UK 5 km Climatologies

9. MOHC HadRM3-PPE Daily Future Regional Climate Output

10. MOHC HadRM3-PPE Daily Future Regional Climate Model Simulations

11. MOHC HadGEM1 Global Climate Model Simulations

12. MOHC HadCM3 Global Climate Model Simulations

13. MOHC HadRM3 Regional Climate Model Simulations

14. MOHC HadGEM3 Global Climate Model Simulations

15. MOHC HadCM3-OA??? Global Climate Model Simulations

Details of each Dataset

This section provides a table of information for each of the datasets being provided under the DDP and LINK projects.

1.

UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land

MOHC

UKCIP08

UKCIP08

This is the main product in the suite of UKCIP08 outputs. Data is not model output. It has been derived from regional climate model output from a collection of 17 ensemble members. That data has been channelled through a statistical process that includes:

- incorporation of a range of different initial conditions (from ensemble runs of MOHC model)

- improvement of results by comparison with observed data for 1961-

1990 period.

- incorporation of non-MOHC global climate models

- down-scaling to high spatial resolution (25 km)

4

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

This data will be used:

- to generate probabilistic plots of climate change for given scenarios

- as a data download for those wishing to undertake studies (such as running impacts models)

- to generate Change Factors used as inputs for the UKCIP08 Weather

Generator model.

A key point about this data is that it is provided as climate change values (i.e. the difference (or ratio of difference) from the baseline climatological period

(1961-1990). Hence temperatures will be in the range of about 1 – 6°c representing the change from the baseline and not the absolute value range.

Calculated on a 25 km rotated grid over the UK (land only), for 7 different 30 year periods in the 21 st Century. Aggregated regions (Administrative and River

Catchments) are then calculated from this data.

None

David Sexton ( david.sexton@metoffice.gov.uk

)

700 GB

Subset 1: 25 km gridded data

- Variable (***)

- Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Temporal Averaging Period (17)

- Latitude (~25)

- Longitude (~15)

- Model Variant (~10,000)

Subset 2: Administrative Regions (aggregated from 25 km grids) data

- Variable (***)

- Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Temporal Averaging Period (17)

- Location (~15)

- Model Variant (~10,000)

Subset 3: River Catchments (aggregated from 25 km grids) data

- Variable (***)

- Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Temporal Averaging Period (17)

- Location (~30)

5

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

- Model Variant (~10,000)

Probable Number of files 3 x 7

Data will be subset/sampled as follows

Simple sub-selection on:

-

-

Variable (***)

Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Temporal Averaging Period (17)

- Latitude (~25)

- Longitude (~15)

- Model Variant (~10,000)

Complex sampling of model variant dimension as follows:

1. select all

2. random (with size of sample selected)

3. by model variant ID (i.e. by index)

4. by variable and percentile: o define a percentile for variable 1 and, optionally:

 define a percentile for variable 2.

Use Cases Raw data use cases:

1. Download raw sampled data for single location (either aggregated area or grid point), one time slice, one temporal averaging period, all variables, and one emissions scenario:

 sampled by one of the 4 methods above

2. Generate Change Factors for Weather Generator raw sampled data for multiple (up to 40) adjacent grid boxes (on the 5km grid), one time slice, one temporal averaging period, all variables, and one emissions scenario:

 sampled by one of the 4 methods above

NOTE: do we put all the grid box change factors in one file?

3. Download CDF data for single location, one time slice, one temporal averaging period, all variables, and one emissions scenario:

 gets the whole lot without sampling

4. Download bounding box of locations, single time slice, temporal averaging period, one variable, one emissions scenario at a given percentile selected from the CDF data.

5. Download bounding box of locations, single time slice, temporal averaging period, one variable, one emissions scenario at a given percentile selected from the CDF data.

Image use cases:

6. Plume plot of one variable across multiple percentiles at one location, one

6

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details temporal averaging period, one emissions scenario from the CDF data.

7. PDF (Y-vs-X) plot of one variable across all percentiles at one location, one temporal averaging period, one emissions scenario from the CDF data.

8. CDF (Y-vs-X) plot of one variable across all percentiles at one location, one temporal averaging period, one emissions scenario from the CDF data.

9. Select a map of one variable for a lat/lon bounding box for one time slice, one temporal averaging period, one emissions scenario, and one percentile from the CDF data.

10. Scatter plot of joint probabilities for two variables, one location, one time slice, one temporal averaging period, one emissions scenario and all model variants from the raw probabilistic sampled data.

NetCDF-CF

1. Will the file format be efficient for all types of data subset?

2. Will we have to store the data in two different data structures (dependant on results of (1))?

3. When will we get some real data?

4. What issues arise from using the rotated grid?

5. How should we allow sub-setting on a rotated grid? Will a basic lat/lon bounding box suffice?

7

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

2.

UK Probabilistic Projections of Future Climate over Land

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

UK Probabilistic Projections of Future Climate over Land

MOHC

UKCIP08

UKCIP08

This is a derived product based on the UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate

Change over Land and the UKCIP02 UK 5 km Climatologies. The latter provide the baseline climatologies on a 5 km grid. The former provide the change that must be combined with the underlying climatology to give absolute values of climate change in the future (at a 5 km resolution). Note that this 5 km resolution is therefore slightly artificial as it derives from combining a 25 km rotated grid and a 5 km regular grid.

The variables are only available for those that are present in both the input datasets.

Calculated on a 5 km grid over the UK (land only), for 7 different 30 year periods in the 21 st Century.

None

Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

Ag Stephens ( a.stephens@rl.ac.uk

)

Will be generated on the fly and will therefore not require extra storage (except for caching in the final system).

- Variable (***)

- Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Temporal Averaging Period (17)

- Latitude (~400)

- Longitude (~200)

- Model Variant (~10,000)

Probable Number of files Only produced on the fly

Data will be subset/sampled as follows

Simple sub-selection on:

-

-

Variable (***)

Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Temporal Averaging Period (17)

- Latitude (~400)

- Longitude (~200)

8

Use Cases

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

- Model Variant (~10,000)

Complex sampling of model variant dimension as follows:

5. select all

6. random (with size of sample selected)

7. by model variant ID (i.e. by index)

8. by variable and percentile: o define a percentile for variable 1 and, optionally:

 define a percentile for variable 2.

As with dataset (1), with the following exceptions:

Location is always 5km grid box(es).

No sampling to generate WG change factors.

We will generate this dataset so we can make it NetCDF-CF or other.

1. How do we combine the 25 km rotated grid and the 5 km regular grid?

2. Which variables are built by simply summing the two input datasets?

3. Which variables (where climate change value is a relative measure) require a more complicated combination, and what is that combination?

9

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

3.

UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

UK Probabilistic Projections of Marine Climate Change

MOHC

UKCIP08

UKCIP08 Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

This product is derived in the same way as the UK Probabilistic Projections of

Climate Change over Land for the Administrative (aggregated) Regions.

However, in the marine case, a set of Marine Regions have been identified for which probabilistic data has been produced. There is no gridded equivalent for of this data.

Calculated on aggregated Marine Regions, for 7 different 30 year periods in the

21 st Century.

None

David Sexton (

20 GB david.sexton@metoffice.gov.uk

)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

- Variable (***)

- Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Temporal Averaging Period (17)

- Location (~20)

- Model Variant (~10,000)

Probable Number of files 3 x 7

Data will be Simple sub-selection on: subset/sampled as follows

-

-

Variable (***)

Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Temporal Averaging Period (17)

- Location

- Model Variant (~10,000)

Complex sampling of model variant dimension as follows:

9. select all

10. random (with size of sample selected)

11. by model variant ID (i.e. by index)

12. by variable and percentile: o define a percentile for variable 1 and, optionally:

10

Use Cases

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

 define a percentile for variable 2.

As with dataset (1), with the following exceptions:

Location is always aggregated area only (i.e. no maps)

No sampling to generate WG change factors.

NetCDF-CF

1. When will we get some real data?

11

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

4.

Weather Generator Output

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

Weather Generator Output

NCL and UEA

UKCIP08

UKCIP08

Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

This is not really a dataset as the Weather Generator (WG) is a stochastic model used to generate daily and hourly series of weather parameters for a given future scenario. The WG in UKCIP08 is made up of two parts being developed at NCL: the RainSim [Rain Simulator] model; and at UEA: the

Weather Generator that takes in RainSim output and produces a set of weather parameters based on statistical relationships.

The WG requires a number of inputs, including a set of 5 km grid points over the UK and a set of Change Factors. Change Factors are the Sampled Data available from the UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land.

The UKCIP08 methodology enforces constraints on the use of the Weather

Generator. A key constraint is that a minimum number of model variants must be sampled from the probabilistic data in order to provide a range of results

(rather than producing an individual output).

The outputs will be:

1. Multi-year (minimum of 30) series of parameter values for the perpetual year

3001 (i.e. not representing any actual year). Data is either daily or hourly in temporal interval.

2. A set of weather indices derived from (1).

The WG takes in a set of adjacent 5 km grid points and aggregates them (by taking an average) to generate an input location for which multiple runs will be done – representing multiple points in uncertainty space.

None

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

Chris Kilsby ( c.g.kilsby@ncl.ac.uk

) and Phil Jones ( p.jones@uea.ac.uk

)

Will be generated on the fly but not archived. Cache might be considerable

(e.g. 100GB).

Subset 1: Standard WG output

- Variable (***11)

- Time step (30-1000 years x 365 days [ x 24 hours])

- Model Variant (up to 10,000) as well as 1 baseline climatology run.

Subset 2: Derived Indices output

12

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

- Derived Index (***50)

- Time duration (dependant on index – daily, monthly, seasonal, other)

Probable Number of files Will be created on-the-fly for users.

Data will be This part gets complicated because the subsetting/sampling of the data subset/sampled as follows is NOT about the Weather Generator outputs. It is about sampling the UK

Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land to condition a

Weather Generator Job (i.e. set up Change Factors for a future scenario).

Use Cases

Provided to us in what format?

Subsets of the Probabilistic Projections will allow:

- Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Temporal Averaging Period (17)

- Set of Adjacent Locations (up to 40 grid points from 5 km grid)

- Model Variant (~10,000)

The following sampling will require a minimum number of model variants to be selected – maybe about 20!???

Complex sampling of model variant dimension as follows:

1. select all

2. random (with size of sample selected)

3. by model variant ID (i.e. by index)

4. by variable and percentile: o define a percentile for variable 1 and, optionally:

 define a percentile for variable 2.

1. Run multiple runs of weather generator – producing standard and derived indices files:

 expect to produce a set of output files: 1 for each run of the WG:

 probably 1 run for each model variant set of change factors

 and 1 run with no change factors which is the 1961-90 baseline

2. Post-process WG outputs with threshold detector and write Threshold

Detector output.

3. Download Threshold Detector output as data file.

4. Visualise Threshold Detector output as histogram.

Hopefully NetCDF-CF (Model is Fortran so shouldn’t be a problem)

Big issues 1. Will the file format be efficient for all types of data subset?

2. Will the intermediate Change Factors files be identical to the output of the

UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land?

13

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

14

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

5.

Projections of Storm Surge Height for UK Waters

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

Probable Volume (GB)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

Projections of Storm Surge Height for UK Waters

MOHC

UKCIP08

UKCIP08

Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

POLCS3 is the underlying model for this dataset (i.e. of the Proudman

Oceanographic Lab), but the 17 ensemble runs are conditioned by 17 MOHC

RCM models.

This product combines a number of modelled processes and other sources to generate a set of predictions of the risk of storm surges. These are described as a height in metres of the maximum height for a given period (i.e. Return

Periods or Return Levels). For example, the 8 variables will probably be called something like:

Extreme Water Level at <n_years> Year Return Period (based on <variable>)

(m);

Where: <n_years> is either 2,10,20 or 50.

<variable> is either “Sea Surface Elevation” or “Skew Tide”.

Variables are defined as:

Sea Surface Elevation: the sea responding to atmospheric forcing combined with tide height.

Skew Tide (a.k.a Skew Surge): the Maximum water level minus the maximum tide height that occurs one tidal cycle either side of the maximum water level.

The data will only be produced for the A1B emissions scenario.

Calculated on the European Shelf Domain which is around 12 km in resolution (1/9 x

1/6 deg). It is a regular lat/lon grid with around 12,000 grid points (with data only for ocean grid points). The data will be calculated for 7 different 30 year periods in the

21 st Century.

None

Jason Lowe ( Jason.lowe@metoffice.gov.uk

)

Tom Howard ( tom.howard@metoffice.gov.uk

)

100 MB

- Measure of Uncertainty (~15) - TBD

- Variable (4)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Latitude (~135)

15

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

- Longitude (~150)

We have suggested that all variables go in one file for one time slice, resulting in 7 files where each variable is represented as, e.g.: variable water_lev_50yr_rp_by_ss (uncertainty, latitude, longitude);

NOTE: The measure of uncertainty is not yet decided. It might be one of the following:

the input 17 members

percentiles such as 50,75,90,95,99%ile.

Probable Number of files 7

Data will be Simple sub-selection on: subset/sampled as follows

-

-

Measure of Uncertainty (~15)

Variable (4)

- TBD, maybe have to return all

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

- Latitude (~135)

5. Longitude (~150)

Use Cases Raw data use cases:

1. Download a selected subset of data slicing through the axes in any way the user wants. This would be a 3-D subset of one or more variables.

NOTES:

Can user select all variables? MAYBE, BUT HOW TO COPE WITH THIS

ON OUTPUTS PAGE? Need a rule or two.

Can user select more than one time slice at a time? NO

Image Use Cases:

2. Map plot for one variable, one time slice and one level of uncertainty for bounding box of lat/lons.

3. Plot of “error bars” such as:

| I

| I

| I

| I

_____________________

Where y axis is water level and the x axis shows range for 2,10,20,50 year return periods.

NetCDF-CF – we hope Provided to us in what format?

Big issues 1. What metadata do we need? I.e. how much of the methodology should be in the metadata?

16

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

17

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

6.

Past and Future Multi-level Ocean Projections for UK Waters

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Past and Future Multi-level Ocean Projections for UK Waters

MOHC & POL

UKCIP08

UKCIP08 Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

Spatio-temporal information

This product is the only genuine straightforward climate (strictly speaking ocean) model output from the POLCOMS model. The “test run” uses surface forcing only from the RCM. The “full run” will use output from a full coupled atmos-ocean RCM to drive the POLCS3 model.

Provisionally, 5 variables (temp, salinity, u and v-current, sea surf height) will be calculated for two 30 year periods (1961-90, 2070-2099) at a daily time resolution. All except sea surface height are provided on vertical levels.

Number of variables and levels will depend on analysis nearer output time.

Usage of this data will be typical slicing through space/time/variable and downloading raw data and/or plots of the output.

The Atlantic Margin grid has been used. This is a regular lat/lon grid on around a 12 km resolution.

There are 33 vertical levels in the ocean. But the output may be on a different number of levels, and may be on s-levels (as in model) or z-levels.

HadGEM1 ocean data, i.e. multi-level, multi-time variables on a grid. Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

Jason Lowe (

100GB

Jason.lowe@metoffice.gov.uk

) ;

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

- Date (21,600)

- Vertical level (5)

- Latitude (~100)

- Longitude (~150)

Probable Number of files 21,600 (i.e. one per time steps)

Data will be Simple sub-selection on: subset/sampled as follows

- Time Period (2)

- Start date – End date Range (21,600 dates in all, so can only select max of 10,800 as can only choose 1 time period in one request)

- Vertical level (5)

- Latitude (~100)

- Longitude (~150)

18

Use Cases

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

Raw Data use cases:

1. Typical model subsets, slicing in any dimensions for one variable and one

Time Period:

4D to 1D depending on what user selects:

 (tzyx, tzx, tzy, tyx, tz, ty, tx, t, zyx, zy, zx, z, yx, y, x)

Image use cases:

2. 2D map plot of lat versus lon (yx) for one variable and one time period

3. 2D map plot of other combinations: (tz, ty, tx, zy, zx) for one variable and one time period

4. 1D Line graph of one variable versus a single dimension: v(t), v(z), v(y), v(x).

POL can write NetCDF-CF directly.

1. What metadata do we need? I.e. how much of the methodology should be in the metadata?

2. What plot types are going to be relevant/required?

3. Do we (or POL or MOHC) want to calculate monthly and annual means and make them available?

4. Do we want the main s-level data on LINK and a z-level subset under

UKCIP08?

5. Need to establish whether s-levels or z-levels required and how will conversion be done (by us or others)?

19

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

7.

Projections of Sea Level Rise for UK Waters

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

Projections of Sea Level Rise for UK Waters

MOHC

UKCIP08

UKCIP08

This product will be important to users but the entire dataset will be held in one small file. The MOHC will generate sea level rise data for time slices in the 21 st

Century (i.e. 2020-2049 etc) for the UK Waters as a whole. The input data will be from all the GCMs used in AR4 (that have the required variables), sampled over the UK (essentially one global grid point each). This means there will be one value for the entire UK so users will not be able to select location.

The data will be provided on all three SRES Emissions Scenarios (B1, A1B and

A1FI).

For information: The plan for the Scientific Report is to show an SLR vs Time plot of all the different GCM values (sampled over UK) and then these values will be combined into a weighted product that has some measure of probablility in it. Then a second plot will show the effect of weighting in a plume plot. This will be done for each of the three UKCIP08 Emissions Scenarios.

NOTE: This dataset will probably not be under the UI, but we may need the functionality to support the Scientific Report author.

One number for the entire UK waters at any given time and scenario. Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

None

Jason Lowe ( Jason.lowe@metoffice.gov.uk

)

< 1MB

- Measure of Uncertainty (~15)

- Emissions scenario (3)

- 30-yr Time Slice (7)

Probable Number of files 1

Data will be subset/sampled as follows

Use Cases

Note: It was probably agreed that their should be no SLR data in the UI, just in the main report. We shouldn’t need to do anything for this!!!

Raw data use cases:

1. Currently under discussion: might not be available.

Image use cases:

20

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

2. Plume plot change in uncertainty versus time slice for one emissions scenario (i.e. 3 possibilities in all).

Unknown – but trivial for us to generate a NetCDF-CF file.

1. What metadata do we need? I.e. how much of the methodology should be in the metadata?

2. What plot types are going to be relevant/required?

21

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

8. UKCIP02 UK 5 km Climatologies

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

UKCIP02 UK 5 km Climatologies

MOHC

UKCIP02

UKCIP02/UKCIP08

For UKCIP02 the Met Office produced a collection of ASCII monthly mean grids for a number of climatologically important variables. These are available from the MO web site. They provide monthly means to the 1961-1990 period.

We must download these data, convert them to NetCDF-CF, then calculate 30year averages (i.e. climatologies) for each month/season/annual period. This data will then be used to derive the UK Probabilistic Projections of Future

Climate over Land.

5 km regular lat/lon grid over UK. Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

Hadley Centre climatological datasets such as MSLP etc.

Ag Stephens ( a.stephens@rl.ac.uk

)

10MB

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

- variable (~12)

- temporal Averaging Period (month/season/year)

- latitude

- longitude

Probable Number of files 12 x 17 = 200ish

Data will be Simple sub-selection on: subset/sampled as follows

-

- variable (~12) temporal Averaging Period (month/season/year)

- latitude

- longitude

Use Cases Combined with UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land to derive UK Probabilistic Projections of Future Climate over Land data.

We create so will be NetCDF-CF Provided to us in what format?

Big issues 1. What metadata do we need? I.e. how much of the methodology should be in the metadata?

2. How to handle missing files?

3. Validating the outputs?

22

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

23

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

9. MOHC HadRM3-PPE Daily Future Regional Climate Model Output

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

LINK (but underlying UKCIP08)

?

This data provides the 17 Regional Model Simulations that underpin the

UKCIP08 probabilistic outputs. They represent 17 ensemble members ranging the parameter space that the MOHC experts expect to be important. Runs last

2000-2100???

25km rotated grid over UK. Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

-

Probable Volume (GB)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

David Sexton ( david.sexton@metoffice.gov.uk

)

700GB (already at BADC)

- variable (~20)

- ensemble member (17)

- daily time step (35,000 ??)

- Latitude (~25)

- Longitude (~15)

Probable Number of files ~5000

Data will be subset/sampled as follows

Use Cases

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

MOHC HadRM3-PPE Daily Future Regional Climate Model Output

MOHC

-

-

- variable (~20) ensemble member (17) daily time step (35,000 ??)

- Latitude (~25)

- Longitude (~15)

Typical model subsets, but need to work out how to subset in rotated grid space.

PP

1. Do we provide users with subsetting in rotated grid?

2. Or do we provide interpolated version to them?

3. Do we pre-calculated monthly, seasonal and annual means in NetCDF?

24

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

10. MOHC HadGEM1 Global Climate Model Simulations

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

Spatio-temporal information

MOHC HadGEM1 Global Climate Model Simulations

MOHC

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

Probable Number of files

Data will be subset/sampled as follows

Use Cases

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

LINK

HadGEM1, ENSEMBLES, AR5?

HadGEM1 is ….

-

-

25

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

11. MOHC HadCM3 Global Climate Model Simulations

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

Probable Number of files

Data will be subset/sampled as follows

Use Cases

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

MOHC HadCM3 Global Climate Model Simulations

LINK

-

-

26

UKCIP08 DDP and LINK: Dataset Details

12. MOHC HadRM3 Regional Climate Model Simulations

Long name of dataset

Source

UKCIP08 or LINK data?

Activities (e.g. HadGEM1,

ENSEMBLES)

Textual description

Spatio-temporal information

Similar to (dataset that we already have)?

Contact Name

Probable Volume (GB)

Likely data structure (i.e. dimensionality and size)

Probable Number of files

Data will be subset/sampled as follows

Use Cases

Provided to us in what format?

Big issues

MOHC HadRM3 Regional Climate Model Simulations

LINK

-

-

13. MOHC HadGEM3 Global Climate Model Simulations

14. MOHC HadCM3-OA??? Global Climate Model Simulations

27

Download