WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
THORPEX ICSC
DAOS Working Group
Third Meeting
CAS/THORPEX ICSC/
DAOS-3/Doc.6.7
(08.VI.2010)
Item: 6.7
Original: ENGLISH
University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM)
Montréal, 8-9 July 2010
THORPEX sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project
1.
Background
At its 15th session (November 2009), the WMO Commission of Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
requested the Joint Scientific Committees of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and
the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and also the THORPEX international Core Steering
Committee (ICSC) to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an international
research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. It recommended that such a research
initiative is closely coordinated with the present existing WMO Commission on Basic Systems (CBS)
infrastructure for long-range forecasting (with centres producing long-range forecasts and regional
climate centres) and with the future developments in WMO climate service delivery and the Global
Framework for Climate Services called for in the High-Level Declaration of the World Climate
Conference 3 (WCC-3).
An announcement for this Workshop and a Sketch Agenda are appended below in Annexes 1 and 2. .
The main outcome of the workshop is the design of a Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction
Research Project that provides an efficient framework for co-operative international research and
development efforts to improve operational weather and environmental prediction.
2.
Actions for the DAOS Working Group
The DAOS Working Group is invited to discuss and comment on the announcement and the agenda
and in particular to suggest potential topics and speakers.
Annex 1 Announcement
Workshop
“Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction”
Met Office, Exeter –1 to 3 December 2010
(by invitation only)
At its 15th session (November 2009), the WMO Commission of Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
requested the Joint Scientific Committees of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and
the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and also the THORPEX international Core Steering
Committee (ICSC) to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an international
research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. It recommended that such a research
initiative is closely coordinated with the present existing WMO Commission on Basic Systems (CBS)
infrastructure for long-range forecasting (with centres producing long-range forecasts and regional
climate centres) and with the future developments in WMO climate service delivery and the Global
Framework for Climate Services called for in the High-Level Declaration of the World Climate
Conference 3 (WCC-3).
In order to improve predictions at these ranges it is necessary to develop a seamless approach to
weather and seasonal prediction and such a collaborative initiative should be focussed on:
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Coupled global modelling
Coupled data assimilation
MJO and organised tropical convection
Polar processes
Surface-atmosphere interactions
Stratosphere-troposphere interactions
Ensemble prediction systems (EPS)
Data bases for research
Forecasting system design
Societal and economic benefits from improved sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction
It is necessary to promote a seamless approach to the application of sub-seasonal to seasonal
predictions through physical and social science researchers, service providers and users and
leveraging the work of existing programmes.
The goals of the Workshop are to establish current capabilities, identify high-priority research topics
and demonstration projects and to develop recommendations for the establishment of an international
research project
Programme Committee
Julia Slingo (UK Met Office) – Chair and host
Gilbert Brunet (Environment Canada)
Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
Harry Hendon (BoM)
Ben Kirtman (University of Miami)
An IRI representative
Christian Jakob (Monash University)
Data Assimilation expert
CBS/Archive Centre (Korean) representative
CLIVAR representative
David Burridge (WMO/THORPEX IPO
Annex 2 Sketch Agenda
SKETCH AGENDA
Day 1
09.00 – 09.05
09.05 – 09.30
Registration
Welcome to the Workshop
Background to the Workshop
Session 1: Present capabilities
Invited talk on prediction systems - modelling
Invited talk on prediction systems – data assimilation
Invited talk on the present “operational” capabilities
Invited talk on gaps and major problems
Discussion
Julia Slingo
PC Chair
David Burridge.
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Leader TBD
Session 2: Processes and regional aspects
Invited talk on atmospheric convection
Ocean and ice modelling
Invited talk on polar processes
Invited talk on surface processes and interactions
Invited talk on Stratosphere-troposphere interactions
Discussion
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Leader TBD
Day 2
Session 3: Ensemble prediction and data bases
Invited talk on ensemble prediction
Invited talk on the TIGGE data bases
Invited talk on the CHFP
Data bases to support seasonal prediction research
Discussion
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Leader TBD
Session 4: Forecasting system design and requirements
Invited talk from operational centre 1
Invited talk from operational centre 2
Verification systems
Products and priorities
Discussion
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Leader TBD
Day 3
Session 5: Societal and economic benefits
General talk
An African demonstration project
A South American demonstration project
A North American demonstration project
A South Asian demonstration project
An Insurance project
Discussion
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Leader TBD
Session 6: Ways forward
Summaries of the discussions
Establishment of an international project
The role of the WWRP/WCRP/THORPEX secretariats
Leaders
TBD
TBD