Boom, Bust & Echo

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Boom, Bust & Echo

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What are the characteristics of the different cohorts?

Pre-WWI (born 1914 & earlier)

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WWI (1915 – 1919

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The Roaring Twenties (1920-1929)

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The Depression Babies (1930-1939)

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WWII (1940-1946)

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The Baby Boom (1947-1966)

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The Generation X’ers (1960-1966)

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The Baby Bust (1967-1979)

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The Baby-Boom Echo (1980-1985)

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The Future (1995-2010)

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The Real Estate Meltdown

-1967 – 1986 9 million boomers left home and started their own. That resulted in a boom in real estate.

-20 yr olds leave home, get a job….30 yr olds purchase a home (by now have saved down payment) …..40 yr olds upgrade to a larger home……50 yr olds buy rural home or cottage because they can afford it and they like to get out of the city.

-young people like the cities, older people want out of the city.

Demographic Investing

Health care services – boomers are getting older, have cash and will use private clinics. Looking for a growth field?...old folks homes, pharmacists, chefs, housecleaners, nurses etc.

Financial services – people move from debt management to asset management when they move from youth to boomers. Many boomers are receiving inheritances and seek financial advice. This causes a need for investment dealers, lawyers (wills) mutual funds etc. They are trying to manage their assets for their retirement.

Leisure and recreation – gambling, gardening, bird watching, cruises for boomers.

Cuba for young people. Home fitness products for boomers so they can get in better shape in private.

Retailing – quality and service are important for boomers….not price. Boomers have more money than time. Price is more important for young people because they have more time than money. Retailers must rely on margin (adequate profit) and not volume to make a go in retail. Walmart is not built for baby boomers.

Funerals and Cemeteries – 25 years from now it will be a booming business!

Collectibles – boomers like to collect things that make them feel young….classic cars, cards, etc are more fun than stocks and bonds.

Jobs and the Corporation

Because there are too many boomers in corporate Canada, there is not much opportunity for climbing up the ladder. Lateral promotions are more prevalent, but that means the employee must be trained. Businesses should know the job preferences of employees to succeed. Employees are assets.

Education needs to be more flexible to accommodate the needs of the employee.

More on-line courses, more older people in the colleges and universities.

Refer to the handout (pg 69) to see the need for more education to survive in Canada.

The Rules of Retail

-young have little money but lots of time….they hunt for bargains

-boomers have more money but little time….will pay more for “no fuss, no muss”.

They pay to have things preassembled, will not support a merchant who wastes their time with poor service, ugly merchandise return policies etc.

-Food – boomers eat less and eat better…. President’s Choice succeeded because of higher quality and indulgent foods (chocolate chip cookies).

-packaged lettuce, switched from coke to diet coke.

-alcohol and tobacco…young people use these and older people use them less

-clothes – women’s size 8 in 1995 was a size 12 in 1985!

-cars – luxury for aging market

-electronics – windows for older people…easier to use the computer.

-resurgence of the small local store on main street.

Tennis, Anyone?

-aging population means less time for tennis or sports but more time for TV, walks, reading, bird watching, museums, theatres etc.

-want a career in recreation? Better go into dancing NOT tennis.

-Performing Arts is big.

-Bird watching = 5.2 billion in 1995….All professional Sports =5.9 billion.

-gambling…”Canada, it seems, has a plentiful supply of apparent idiots.” But…more of an investment in fun and risk.

-more volunteer work since kids have left home.

The Future of Cities

-20 yr old has no car and lives in city highrise, rides subway or transit. Can’t afford a car and doesn’t need one.

-40 yr old needs a car to run the kids around.

-growth of suburbs because of boomers who need a yard, space etc.

-Canada’s big cities are really small-big cities.

-many older people to move back into small towns or rural areas to enjoy quiet, garden etc.

-violent crime is down because most of crime is in the 20 – 30 yr range and those are the bust right now. Teenage crime is simply break and enter. Fraud is up though….boomer crime because the older people are more likely to engage in white collar crime than in violent crime.

-employee theft up around $20 billion / year.

-Echo group will make for busier transit, more apartments, busier downtown.

-lots of homes on the market means more for home renovations in the echo group

Rethinking Education

-Canada’s health care is relatively good and education is relatively declining

-we spend more than most developing countries and get less out of it.

-spend money in the wrong areas. When the bust came, rather than retrain elementary teachers to teach high school, we put them into special ed and resource areas.

-1988 had the government talking about a national day-care program….echo kids.

-college and university…students are now older. The courses reflect more practical and hands-on courses. Continuing ed and online courses are increasing more each year.

The Health Care Crunch

-2010 will be the big health care crunch. We should be planning for more beds, not fewer.

-Privatizing healthcare will be more popular….bommers have the money and no time to wait.

-seniors are slower to recover and need more time in the hospital

-government talking about starting up home-care nurses

-Golden’s hospital beds have been reduced, but with more older people, we need the bed # to increase.

-rural areas need a hospital. A hospital is good for economic growth because seniors won’t live where there is no hospital.

-prescription drugs in high use….viagra, anti-depressants, estrogen (best selling drug in US)

-herbal and alternative medicine grows with the aging population.

-young people use glue….move to pot, alcohol…..middle agers more likely to use cocaine…but 40 yr olds generally switch from illegal to legal drugs like valium and other anti-depressants.

What’s a Family?

-divorce generally after 10 yrs of marriage. Lots of boomer divorces

-women working making $ and it is easier to get a divorce. However, most boomers want the traditional family with 1 parent at home. Boomers want traditional family values. Young people don’t care as much.

-boomers are cocooning…cozying up at home…less parties, more DVD home theatres and pizza delivery.

-sandwiching is where the boomer has both children and their own parents to take care of. Women in Canada haven’t risen to top management because of sandwiching.

An Older, Wiser Canada

-Canada has 3 distinct societies…Francophone, Anglophone, Aboriginal

-Aboriginal baby boom….36% of aboriginals are under 20. Need education and jobs for youth or result is crime, suicide, migration, family breakdown

-Francophones used to have the highest fertility rate in Canada (Roman Catholic).

French were 43% of Canadian population = political power. Now they represent less than 25%. Charlottetown accord was about Quebec wanting a guaranteed 25% of federal seats.

-Technology and employment…lots of young people (like the echo) = abundant and cheap labor. It also means less automated factories because they are cheaper than

machines. It also is part of the reason the BC Liberals were able to lower the minimum training wage.

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