Comparison of the Classification of the East African Coastaline habitats using Loiczview clustering tool and expert knowledge of the area Report of Resultsof the LOICZ Workshop -Den Haag, July 2-5, 2001 Amani S. Ngusaru1 and Mwakio P. Tole2 1 University of Dar es Salaam, Institute of Marine Sciences, P. O. Box 668, Zanzibar, Tanzania 2 School of Environmental Studies, Moi University, P. O. Box 3900, Eldoret, Kenya Introduction This work was carried out to test the hypothesis that in many geospacial data sets there are certain basic variables – climatological or hydrological, for example, that are related to other qualities of the environment, such as flora or fauna and chemical fluxes (http://www.kgs.ukans.edu/Hexacoral/Tools/Workshops/L OICZWhitepaperF00.pdf-Mic). According to this hypothesis, since a typology based on the basic variables produces a set of typical environments, it should be possible to develop predictive models using sparce measurements of biological, physical or chemical variables in each of these typical environments. This hypothesis has led to the development of LOICZVIEW clustering tool (LOICZ, 2000; Maxwell, 2001; Maxwell and Buddemeier, 2000; Rissanen, 1989; Web – LoiczView, 2000) a high power computer software program and data set for classifying the coasts of the world. Goals To verify the relevance of the LOICZVIEW clustering tool to modelling the Eastern Africa Coastal habitats To identify the variables that control the habitat characteristics in the Eastern Africa Coastline. To determine the minimum number of parameters that are able to reproduce the known habitat classifications in the Eastern Africa coastal region. Study Area. Cells 13 and 19 – Western Indian Ocean – the East African Coastal habitats (figure 1). Methods. A number of experiments were run to find out which clusters can most closely reproduce the known (expert) habitat map of the Western Indian Ocean Coast (Kamau, 2001). Coastal Cell types were selected from database. Experiment 1 In experiment 1 we clustered using all variables in the database, except basin data . The MDL analysis gave 27 clusters as being optimal for this classification. The result was a very complicated cluster map (figure2) that was not useful in describing the habitats of the coastline. At the same time, it was not possible to generate a data summary, due to limited memory allocation. Experiment 2 In the second experiment, a limited number of variables, thought to be important for habitat characteristics determination were selected. These were: Windspeed Air temperature SST Precipitation Anthropogenic effects (population/ Urban percentage) Salinity Wave height Tidal Range Runoff Land Cover MDL analysis gave 23 clusters as being optimal. The resulting cluster map (figure 3) was not much different from that of experiment 1. Also it was not possible to generate a data summary, due to limited memory allocation. Experiment 3 Going by the experience of experiments 1 and 2, it was decided to experiment with individual parameters, with the aim of combining those that most closely reproduced the desired habitat map. These could then later be combined to refine the map to match the existing one on habitat distribution. In this experiment, Rainfall (Total, Average minimum monthly, Average maximum monthly) was used to produce a cluster map. MDL analysis gave 9 clusters as optimal. This indicated that the more variables used, the greater the number of clusters required for optimal classification. Figure 1. Classification of the East African Coastline according to Habitats (Kamau, 2001). Note that the Northern most coastline has been classified as a Monsoon Coast. This is a habitat that is affected by climatological factors related to the Monsoons. Figure 2 – Results of Experiment 1- All Variables. Figure 3 – Results of Experiment 211 variables Figure 4 – Results of Experiment 3 Rainfall. Figure 5 – Results of Experiment 7 Salinity. Results showed that rainfall alone could not give the observed classification as shown in figure 4. The Zanzibar/Tanga sector was classified as being different from the Malindi and Dar es Salaam sectors, while in reality these sectors have similar climatic characteristics. Although the clustering gave systematic patterns that almost mimiced the observed habitats, in the Central Mozambique sector, the swamp coast was not distinguished from the coral coast. This is not unexpected, because rainfall cannot distinguish between say mangrove coasts and coral habitats. Otherwise rainfall seems to be a good parameter for coastal classifications in Eastern Africa. Experiment 4 In this experiment, airtemperature (Monthly average, minimum, and maximum) were added to the rainfall. MDL gave 14 clusters. Results produced much wider scatter on the diagram than shown in figure 4. This indicated that air temperature is not important in habitat classification in the East African coast. This is surprising, since air temperature should be important in habitat (climatic) classification. The reason may be due to the data used (quality/reliability) or the procedures used in the clustering for the air temperature parameter when combined with other parameters. Experiment 5 In this experiment, air temperature was replaced with runoff (annual average). The results were similar to those of rainfall alone. Experiment 6 In this experiment, Rainfall (Total, Average minimum monthly, Average maximum monthly) and Salinity (annual average, gradient) were used to produce a cluster map. The results could not demarcate the Mozambique swamp coast as a distinct unit. Experiment 7 In this experiment, salinity (annual, gradient) was used to cluster the coasts. Results showed that the Zanzibar/Tanga coast was similar to Mombasa/ Dares Salaam sectors in terms of salinity parameters (figure 5). This casts doubts on the rainfall data in the database for Zanzibar/Tanga area. However, the map clearly demonstrated that swamp coasts can be differentiated from other coasts on the basis of salinity, but coral coasts cannot be distinguished from dune coasts, which is expected, because corals are in the oceanic part of the coast while dunes are terrestrial. Salinity can therefore depict different aquatic habitats. Experiments 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. These experiments respectively tested population density, soil types (organic and carbonate contents), vegetation (all parameters in the database), vegetation (mixed forest), vegetation (wooded grasslands) in reproducing the habitat map. Population density has no relationship with habitat types. Soil types produced complex patterns that were not related to habitat types. Vegetation (all types) produced complex patterns that were not related to habitat types. This was unexpected, so it was decided to investigate further the different types of vegetation that were more typical of the East African coastline (mixed forest, wooded grassland). Mixed forest completely failed to classify the coast, because the whole area was classified as one uniform coast type. This was unexpected, and there is need to find out what type of mixed forest data exists in the dataset for the East African region. There are known variabilities in the types of forests in the region. The wooded grassland differentiated the north eastern Africa/ Arabian coasts from the south eastern Africa coasts. However, there was more complexity in terms of clusters in the south eastern Africa region, to the extent that it was not a useful parameter in delineating habitats. This is probably due to paucity of data in the north eastern part of Africa. There were values of 0 (zero) in the north eastern Africa/Arabian coasts, and it is not clear what zero means in this database. Experiments 13 This experiment used Tidal range, Elevation and Wave Height variables. MDL analysis gave 16 clusters as optimal for classfication. Results did not accurately produce the existing habitat map, but was able to differentiate the coastal areas with no direct relationship to the habitats. Experiment 14 This experiment used Tidal range and Wave Height variables. MDL gave 8 clusters as optimal for classification based on those variables. Results most accurately reproduced the habitat map (figure 6). Experiments 15, 16, and 17 These experiments respectively tested Waves, tides, and bare ground variables individually. The results show that waves alone gave a very simple cluster map, as did the tides alone. Bare ground gave uniform coastal classification south of Somalia, but fairly detailed and complex classification north of Somalia. This was not reflective of the situation on the ground. Experiment 18 and 19 This experiment tested Sea Surface Temperatures (mean monthly, maximum, minimum, and range) as a variable to clasify the Eastern African Coast. The result was a good reproduction of the habitat map as shown in figure 7. The use of mean SST alone produced fyrther details of the cluster map, especially in the central areas of the Mozambiquian coast, which was difficult to explain. Figure 6: Experiment 14 – Tides and Wave Height variables Figure 7: Experiment 18 – SST (Mean monthly, Min, Max) Range DESCRIPTION Fig. 6 The coastal area south of the horn of Africa down to Somali Kenya border is classified as a single coastal entity that seems to reflect the Monsoon Coast. The Grey cluster in between could not be explained The bright green cluster seem to indicate the coral coast stretching from Mombasa to the Northern coast of Mozambique. The blue cluster in central Mozambique coast seen to indicate the swamp coast. The yellow cluster down the southern coast of Mozambique seem to indicate the dune coast in that area. Figure 8 – Experiment 21 – Combined variables that produced good fit with the habitat map (No. Of Islands, Precip.(total, intraann. Std) Elevation (Std. Dev), SST (Inta ann. Std.dev), Salinity (Ann. Avg.), Wave Height, Tidal Range) Experiment 20 This experiment tested wind as a variable that would be expected to be important in the classification of the East African coast, especially due to the influence of the monsoons. However, the results produced a highly fragemented cluster map that did not lend itself to meaningful interpretation of the coastal habitats. Experiment 21 Having systematically identified the important parameters that seem to be controlling the distribution of coastal habitats in the East African coastline, these were combined together to test their collective impact on the habitats. This experiment tested the following variables: Number of Islands (indicative of coral reef islets) Precipitation (12 months total, intra annual std. Dev.) Elevation (std. Dev. – G30 value) Sea Surface Temperature (Intra annual Std. Dev.) Salinity (annual average) Wave height Tidal range MDL analysis produced 16 clusters, but 11 were applied as this was the point of most rapid decrease in the number. The results (figure 8) were the best match to the habitat map. Conclusions These results indicate that the LOICZVIEW modelling tool is easy to use, and yet powerful in terms of characterisation of different coastal ecosystems. Based on this analysis, it appears that 5 variables (Precipitation, Salinity, Sea surface temperature, Wave height and tidal range) are the most important factors in determining the habitat characteristics in the Western Indian Ocean region. Air – sea interactions, more than land influence, influence the ecological and coastal processes responsible for creation and maintenance of the coastal habitats and ecosystems (coral reefs, mangrove swamps, dune fields, tidal). It appears that two parameters (Wave heights and Tidal range) are able to reproduce as good a habitat map as the five parameters in combination. This requires further analysis using more comprehensive wave and tide data. References 1. Kamau, I. (2001) Preliminary assessment of the Western Indian Ocean sensitive marine ecosystems. Eco-Region Project. WWF, Dares Salaam country Office. 2. LOICZ (2000) Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone, http://www.nioz/loicz. 3. Maxwell, B. A. (2001) Visualising Geographic Classifications Using Colour. J. of Cartography (in Press). 4. Maxwell, B. A. and Buddemeier, R. (2000) Coastal Typology Development with heterogeneous Data Sets. Kansas geological Survey Open-File Report 2000-53. 5. Rissanen, J. (1989) Stochastic Complexity in Statistical Inquiry. World Scientific Publishing Co. Ptc. Ltd. Singapore. 6. Web – LoiczView (2000): http://www.palantir.swathmore.edu/loicz 7. Whitepaper (2000) http://www.kgs.ukans.edu/Hexacoral/Tools/Workshops/L OICZWhitepaperF00.pdf-Mic