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Project n. 037110
Project acronym: NEAREST
Project title “Integrated observations from NEAR shore sourcES of Tsunamis: towards
an early warning system”
Instrument: STREP
Thematic priority: 1.1.6.3 GOCE (GlObal Change and Ecosystems)
First Year REPORT
WORKPACKAGE
N-8
Full WP title
Feasibility study and prototype for an EWS
Period covered
from 1/10/2006 to 30/09/2007
Partner organisation full name
FFCUL
Person in charge for the report
(WP Leader)
Luis Matias
Workpackage progress of the period
Objectives (from DoW)
The Integrated Tsunami Detection Network that will be developed under WP5
represents only a prototype, meaning that it will not operate 24/24 hours.
Furthermore, it is not expected that a major tsunamigenic earthquake will occur
during the 3 years that this project will last. This means that, almost for sure, the
monitoring system will not be put to a true operational test during NEAREST.
However, the final goal of such a monitoring system is to issue a message to the Civil
Protection authorities in the concerned countries, Portugal, Spain and Morocco, 5
minutes after the occurrence of a seismic event. The objectives of this work package
are: to perform a true feasibility study for a future Early Warning System, developing
two types of simulators: 1) to create synthetic data flows representing seismic
waveforms and water level data computed from realistic scenarios to be fed into the
monitoring system and test its outcomes; 2) to provide the Civil Protection authorities
with a simulator that will act as the real one under a simulated crisis.
Task 8.1 Simulation of tsunami generation scenarios
Synthetic data streams for seismic waveforms and water level data will be generated
for realistic tsunamigenic earthquakes. The scenarios to be considered are identified
under WP1. The detection system will be tested under the following simulations: i)
Earthquakes that are felt strongly onshore but do not generate a significant tsunami
(like the 28-February-1969 event). Several source areas must be tested, including a
random earthquake scenario representing one yet unknown source. The detection
procedure must issue a non-alarm message 5 minutes after the onset of the seismic
event; ii) Earthquakes that are felt strongly onshore and do generate a significant
tsunami, like the 1st November 1755 event. The detection procedure must issue a
tsunami alarm message 5 minutes after the onset of the seismic event; iii)
Earthquakes that are not felt strongly onshore but generate a significant tsunami. This
is the “silent earthquake” scenario, or the “tsunami earthquake” scenario, where the
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most probable source is the roll-back subduction in the Gulf of Cadiz as proposed by
Gutscher (2004). This is the most difficult scenario for the monitoring system and it
expected to respond with a suite of messages, beginning with a non-alarm message
but ending with an alarm message. Using water-level data acquired in the deep
ocean, the alarm message should also be issued after 5 minutes from the beginning of
the event; iv) Different monitoring station configurations can be tested, assessing the
performance of the future Early Warning System. The simulations to be prepared will
be “blind” in the sense that the operators and developers of the warning system will
not know beforehand the scenario that will be tested. The data streams are to be
prepared by the participant research groups while the simulator is to be developed
with the assistance of Xistos. We believe that the methodology to be developed under
NEAREST can be applied to any warning system developed elsewhere in Europe and
outside Europe.
Task 8.2 Simulator for the decision-maker authorities
Civil Protection authorities are responsible in each country for the processing of
information that can trigger the alarm and emergency response that they provide. As
the destructive events that the warning system must address are rare events, the
training and feasibility study of the data and warning channels must be tested and
improved using a simulator. This is the type of work that is the expertise of XISTOS.
The requirements from the Civil Protection authorities will be obtained from inquiries
and fieldwork on the 3 concerned countries, Portugal, Spain and Morocco. Later on,
the same authorities will be invited to test the system hands-on and will help
NEAREST to improve the early warning procedure. Communication requirements will
be evaluated for each country and NEAREST will propose the best reliable system for
each country. Real-time communications are essential and non-automatic actions, like
phone-calls, will include in the simulation. NEAREST will propose a early warning
platform for the Civil Protection authorities that will allow them to make a decision on
the actions to be performed. The decisions to be tested will include true warnings and
also null messages generated by strongly felt earthquakes not generating a significant
earthquake.
Starting point
Task 8.1 Simulation of tsunami generation scenarios
The generation of syntethic seismic data streams is an expertise that is available on most of the
participants to this task. The syntetic generation of pressure data was already available at FFCUL.
Missing parts where the integration of these different procedures into a single one, formatted for
the NEAREST data collectors.
Task 8.2 Simulator for the decision-maker authorities
XISTOS had already a long experience working with simulators for emergency and catastroph
management, using the Object Language paradigm.
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Progress towards objectives
Task 8.1 – Simulation of tsunami generation scenarios
There has been a continuous progress on the data collector schemes, particularly at
partner IM (for Portugal) (see WP5 report). There has been also a progressive
integration of NEAREST activities within the IGC/NEAMTWS initiative that will make
strong recommendations on the decision matrix to be applied for the Tsunami
Warning and also on the fast parameter algorithms to be used by the Regional
Centres. These developments made difficult the development of the simulator for
scenario data stream generation.
Considering that the NEAREST areas affected by a tsunami are in the “Near Field”
FFCUL implemented one methodology for the generation of seismograms in this area
that was first proposed by Zollo et al. (1997). In this approach, the seismogeneic fault
is divided in a large number of small elements. The final seismogram in the “near
field” is computed by summing the contribution from all smaller faults. The figure
illustrates this after a presentation made by Aldo Zollo at Erice in 2002.
For the fast computation of seismograms we use the code that implements the
spectral method by Bouchon (1981). The slip distribution on the fault is not
homogeneous and we prefer the method proposed by Mai and Beroza (2002) to
generated synthetic slip distributions. An example of a complex seismogram
generated by this method is shown in the next figure. The strongest limitation to this
method is that a great computing power is required to include the frequencies above
10 Hz in the simulation.
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Task 8.2 – Development of a simulator for the decision-maker authorities
The final objective of WP8-T8.2 and the activities of Xistos and FFCUL is the establishment of a
simulator allowing the visualization of:
-
The generation
-
The propagation
- The consequences
of a tsunami on the target zone that was chosen as the test pilot area for the NEAREST project.
Issues to be considered by the simulator are the emergency operational strategies, the involved
facilities and the disaster relief response.
During this first period of the project we have accomplished the following:
1. We finished the conceptual modelling of the NEAREST-tsunami simulator
The main purpose of the NEAREST-tsunami simulator is to give the civil protection services from
the different participating countries for testing and assessment:
- A tool that is realistic as regards the occurrence, propagation and consequences of
a tsunami
- One set of functions that is required for the management of large catastrophes as
the ones that may be caused by tsunami
This double purpose led us to perform, using the object language provided by Smalltalk, one
conceptual discussion on the objects to be represented by the simulator, and after on their
implementation by the software.
The modelling applied is based on the “class instance” type and is supported by the MVC
paradigm, Model, View and Controller.
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A number of
classes are:
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classes were considered essential for the development of the simulator. The main
Class Map
Class Earthquake
Class Tsunami
Property continent
Property water depth
2. Some particular characteristics for the NEAREST-tsunami simulator
The NEAREST-tsunami simulator is able to account for the impact of tsunamis generated by
earthquakes but also those generated by other sources, like marine slides.
With the aid of a scrolling menu (see figure) the user can create any tsunami scenario he wishes.
Given that the simulator is directed to the civil protection authorities of the countries affected by
tsunamis occurring in the Gulf of Cadiz area and Central Atlantic (southern Portugal, southern
Spain and northwest Morocco), the simulator can associate the maps related to the areas where
the consequences of the tsunami are to be modelled. The example in the figures shows the Lagos
town, southern Portugal.
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In each of the maps we associated the concepts of « beach », « beach occupation
density » as a function of the hour and season during the year, “beach evacuation time”,
“regional habitat”, etc.
Considering that the simulator will also be used to form the local authorities on catastrophe
management, we modelled the functionalities of the DEO (Director for Emergency
Operations) and the CEO (Commander for Emergency Operations). The difference
between the DEO and CEO resides in the fact that the DEO represents the political level of
decision, while the CEO represents the field operation level.
This means that during a large impact catastrophe, it is the DEO that is in charge of the
logistics and it is him that should approve the strategic plan proposed by the CEO. The
CEO is in charge of the emergency operations in the field, namely by his interaction with
the FOC’s, the Field Operation Commanders).
As a tool for catastrophe management we implemented the Tactical Situation model
(TACSIT), which the most recent model that has been adopted in France and in most
European countries, with some local variations.
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We emphasize the following points that the simulator is able to perform:
- Estimate the relevant physical characteristics of a tsunami
- To view the consequences of a tsunami over one area or several areas where the maps
and properties have been previously introduced
- To initiate the modelling of the response operational organization for the institutions that
should act after the catastrophe occurs in the affected areas
- To initiate the modelling of the tools that allow the implementation of operational
strategies that these institutions should perform
- To initiate the generic modelling of the institutions that are required to act
An earthquake is generated
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The tsunami follows
The tsunami impact is modelled on the beach
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Conclusion
The overall activities developed within this task concerning the knowledge representation and
development of a tsunami simulator allowed the creation of a tool that is able to integrate the
tsunami parameters that may be given by an external source (other WP’s), that is able to evaluate
the spatial impact of the tsunami and its consequences on the population, that is able to visualize
the rescue operations and emergency facilities, and that is able to model different operational
strategies, as an aid to the political and operational responsibles.
Deviations and corrective actions
The scheduling of tasks 8.1 and 8.2 have suffered some changes regarding the
planning in the DoW.
Task 8.1 is less developed than expected given that it has a great dependency on the
WP5 development. This is not considered critical and we expect that the full work and
deliverables will be finished in time. No corrective action is required.
On the contrary, given the work scheduling by Xistos, task 8.2 is much more
developed that previously planned. We feel that no corrective action is required.
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TABLE 1: DELIVERABLES LIST
Please fill in the green boxes
Del.
n.
D29
D30
Deliverable name
Workpackage
Workpackage n.
Due
Date
(project
month)
Actual/Foreca
st delivery
date
Estimated
indicative person
months (all
partners involved)
Used indicative
person months
(all partners
involved)
Lead
contractor
WP8
23
23
12
12
FFCUL
WP8
35
35
27
27
FFCUL
template of synthetic
data streams
generated from
tsunami generation
scenarios
simulator for the
decision-maker
authorities
TABLE 2: MILESTONES LIST
Please fill in the green boxes
Milestone n.
Milestone name
Workpackage n.
Due Date
(project
month)
Actual/Forecast delivery date
Lead contractor
M5
Operational testing of
Early Warning System
WP8
36
36
FFCUL
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BARCHART
Project months
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
WP8
Task 8.1 Provisional
Actual
Task 8.2 Provisional
x x x
x
x
x x x x x x x x
x
x
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