California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling 11/13/07
Within California, the GHG model provides a greater level of locational granularity for the ranking and selection of renewable resources within the state than it does for the 11
WECC zones outside California. This development involves the following steps:

Allocating renewable resources at the county level

Identify zones within the state with large concentration of renewable generation potential

Group together wind, solar thermal, geothermal, and small hydro, resource potential located near each of these each high-concentration areas, aggregating up from the county level. Group biomass and biogas resources as a set of distributed resources located throughout the state.

Sort the resources potential within each zone in ascending order of levelized cost
(after adding a proxy amount for firming and integration to the busbar cost of intermittent resources).
The results of these steps are described in this report.
1
The public data available for determining the renewable resources available in different geographic areas of California is described in the table below:
Summary of Resource Data for California
Resource
Data
Source
Geographic
Level
Wind
NREL
NREL
Region
(groups of 1 to 10 counties)
14
Wind CSP
NREL CEC
RRDR
County NREL
Region
58 14
CSP
CEC
RRDR
County
58
Geo
EIA/ WGA/
GeothermEx
Site specific
–> mapped to County
58
Small Biomass/
Hydro Biogas
EIA/INL CBC/CEC
County State-
Wind for
Filtered
Resource
58 1 Number of
CA Zones
Resource
Classes
5: Class 3 through
Class 7
2: High
WS &
Low
5:
Class 1 to
1: No distinction
Infinite:
Site specific cost & cf
Infinite:
Site specific
1: No distinction
1 Note: Some cost numbers may change in later versions of the GHG model.
1

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling 11/13/07
Total CA resource potential
(MW)
53,044
WS Class 5
99,948 89,117 66,160 3,008 cost & cf
221 600 biomass
300 biogas
In comparing published data principally available from either NREL or CEC studies, E3 determined that NREL data has better resource class (or quality) resolution, with five wind and CSP classes, but lower geographic resolution, as NREL regions are groupings of between one and ten counties, with only 14 zones for the whole state. Much of the
CEC resource data, on the other hand, is specific at the level of either resource potential or actual proposed sites within each of California’s 58 counties.
To obtain the best features of both resource quality and geographic resolution, E3 developed the approach of allocating wind and CSP resource potential in the 14 NREL zones to the 58 California counties based on that county’s proportional share of resources according to CEC data. For example, E3 used the county resource shares of CEC’s High
Wind Speed class (600-800 W/m
2
) potential for allocating Class 6 and Class 7 NREL wind potential, and used the county share of CEC’s Low Wind Speed class (400-600
W/m 2 ) potential for allocating Class 3, 4, and 5 NREL wind data. Similar methods were used for CSP, while geothermal and hydro data was already site-specific and mappable at the county level. Biomass and biogas are modeled as a distributed resource and not assigned to counties.
The results of this analysis are described in the following tables.
2

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling
CA County
CA - Distributed
Plumas
Riverside
Sacramento
San Benito
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Francisco
San Joaquin
San Luis Obispo
San Mateo
Santa Barbara
Santa Clara
Santa Cruz
Shasta
Sierra
Siskiyou
Solano
Sonoma
Stanislaus
Sutter
Tehama
Trinity
Tulare
Tuolumne
Ventura
Yolo
Yuba
Alameda
Alpine
Amador
Butte
Calaveras
Colusa
Contra Costa
Del Norte
El Dorado
Fresno
Glenn
Humboldt
Imperial
Inyo
Kern
Kings
Lake
Lassen
Los Angeles
Madera
Marin
Mariposa
Mendocino
Merced
Modoc
Mono
Monterey
Napa
Nevada
Orange
Placer
Total
Resources Biogas Biomass
900 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
300 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
600 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
103
1,026
3,019
48
18
95
232
59
12
18
1,076
224
0
235
10,627
2
12
35,738
7,745
1
338
87
11
575
7
2
732
1,002
14,079
7
19
0
257
221
434
2,284
90
58
27
180
30
4
954
17,929
17,640
27,608
4
638
32
187
18
46
11
34
12
99
20
108
Geo- thermal
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
211
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
48
37
71
0
0
0
25
0
0
538
7
0
0
0
0
0
152
0
0
1,986
80
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Hydro -
Small
0
0
0
0
11
2
0
0
25
4
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
2
30
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
0
9
5
0
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
0
0
0
9
0
0
15
0
15
0
10
0
12
0
Solar
Thermal
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,234
0
0
0
0
21,683
5,544
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,813
0
0
0
0
0
0
8,713
0
0
0
0
0
12,529
15,281
16,853
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Wind
95
232
48
10
18
1,070
224
1
729
78
811
3,019
48
18
180
30
205
3,394
2
12
14,007
2,198
1
338
87
11
575
5
257
196
397
390
85
33
27
4
88
995
5,366
7
19
0
20
79
4
802
3,414
2,271
10,755
0
17
187
3
46
1
34
0
99
0
3
11/13/07

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling
CA County
CA - Distributed
Plumas
Riverside
Sacramento
San Benito
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Francisco
San Joaquin
San Luis Obispo
San Mateo
Santa Barbara
Santa Clara
Santa Cruz
Shasta
Sierra
Siskiyou
Solano
Sonoma
Stanislaus
Sutter
Tehama
Trinity
Tulare
Tuolumne
Ventura
Yolo
Yuba
Alameda
Alpine
Amador
Butte
Calaveras
Colusa
Contra Costa
Del Norte
El Dorado
Fresno
Glenn
Humboldt
Imperial
Inyo
Kern
Kings
Lake
Lassen
Los Angeles
Madera
Marin
Mariposa
Mendocino
Merced
Modoc
Mono
Monterey
Napa
Nevada
Orange
Placer
Total
Resources Biogas Biomass
6,307 2,102
126
485
78 n/a n/a n/a
113
38 n/a n/a
82
58 n/a n/a n/a 251
52
258 n/a n/a
9
3,349 n/a n/a
68,073
57,522 n/a n/a n/a 87,937
9
4,496 n/a n/a
2,538
42,661 n/a n/a
16
48 n/a n/a n/a 0
629
569 n/a n/a
1,324
7,845 n/a n/a
228
278 n/a n/a n/a 67
452
76 n/a n/a
633
33,843 n/a n/a
4
30 n/a n/a n/a 111,278
24,098
2 n/a n/a
824
213 n/a n/a
28
1,470 n/a n/a n/a 26
10
1,835 n/a n/a
280
3,701 n/a n/a
7,463
119 n/a n/a n/a 44
231
566 n/a n/a
155
35 n/a n/a
45
2,795
543
0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
4,205 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Geo- thermal
0
42
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,664
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
378
0
0
0
0
292
560
0
0
0
197
0
0
4,242
56
0
0
0
0
0
1,201
0
0
15,657
631
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Hydro -
Small
0
0
0
0
36
10
0
0
8
10
80
22
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
0
0
14
117
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
73
0
45
19
0
0
0
33
0
0
0
0
0
0
65
0
0
0
49
0
0
86
0
69
0
35
0
58
0
Solar
Thermal
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25,348
0
0
0
0
75,978
18,460
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28,906
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,246
0
0
0
0
0
43,902
51,157
58,285
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Wind
231
566
120
25
45
2,753
543
2
1,825
200
2,015
7,463
119
44
452
76
516
8,495
4
30
34,922
5,623
2
824
213
28
1,470
12
9
221
2,482
13,755
16
48
0
629
497
1,033
993
209
80
67
52
193
9
2,148
8,514
5,685
29,652
0
40
485
9
113
3
82
0
251
0
4
11/13/07

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling
Wind
Class 4
448
2,510
39
10
37
146
28
11
1
189
59
9
330
4
1
420
44
8
844
92
0
18
162
19
130
1,654
1
8
7,166
1,464
3
16
0
162
91
179
204
58
27
2
340
1,745
1,282
6,998
2
31
541
4,210
104
2
18
1
14
0
55
11
35
0
0
CA County
Monterey
Napa
Nevada
Orange
Placer
Plumas
Riverside
Sacramento
San Benito
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Francisco
San Joaquin
San Luis Obispo
San Mateo
Santa Barbara
Santa Clara
Santa Cruz
Shasta
Sierra
Siskiyou
Solano
Sonoma
Stanislaus
Sutter
Tehama
Trinity
Tulare
Tuolumne
Ventura
Yolo
Yuba
CA - Distributed
Alameda
Alpine
Amador
Butte
Calaveras
Colusa
Contra Costa
Del Norte
El Dorado
Fresno
Glenn
Humboldt
Imperial
Inyo
Kern
Kings
Lake
Lassen
Los Angeles
Madera
Marin
Mariposa
Mendocino
Merced
Modoc
Mono
Total Wind
Resources
Wind
Class 3
0 0
40
485
9
113
40
262
4
91
2 3
82
0
251
52
193
9
2,148
8,514
8
982
5,913
3,752 5,685
29,652
9
221
2,482
9,595
6
153
1,699
7,022 13,755
16
48
0
12
32
0
468 629
497
1,033
993
209
80
67
452
46
270
76
516
48
330
8,495
4
5,603
3
30 22
34,922 24,279
5,623
2
824
213
28
1,470
12
2
1,825
200
3,206
1
636
154
18
858
8
1
1,216
112
305
564
597
151
53
68
0
160
29
156
2,015
7,463
119
44
1,407
4,953
77
34
231
566
120
187
421
80
14 25
45
2,753
543
0
35
1,409
451
0
Wind
Class 5
2
366
0
0
5
0
8
0
79
0
2
0
167
0
0
85
25
0
1
0
0
1,239
0
0
1,703
491
2
14
5
32
86
143
135
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
372
420
456
5,416
0
31
120
2,508
16
7
0
0
2
68
2
4
0
0
0
Wind
Class 6
0
113
0
0
4
0
0
0
58
0
0
0
95
0
0
71
14
0
0
0
0
0
1,087
0
0
314
3
18
1
4
15
106
48
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
311
268
161
5,248
0
6
89
14
13
4
0
0
0
39
1
0
0
0
0
Wind
Class 7
2
0
0
0
23
0
0
0
21
0
0
33
5
0
0
0
0
0
687
0
0
149
1
6
0
1
0
41
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
144
169
34
2,396
0
0
34
0
6
1
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
0
0
5
11/13/07

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling 11/13/07
Based on E3’s filtered resource potential estimates (described in the “New Generation
Resource and Cost” reports) from NREL, the CEC, and other sources, California has a total of 53,044 MW of wind generation resource potential, 3,008 MW of geothermal potential, 221 MW of RPS-eligible small hydro potential, and 89,650 MW of CSP potential. Additionally, an estimated 300 MW of total biogas potential and 600 MW of total biomass potential exist in various locations across the state. Some of this resource potential is highly concentrated in certain areas and could be connected to the grid costeffectively through large electricity transmission projects. Other portions of the total state-wide filtered potential are sparsely spread throughout more remote areas, causing them to be more expensive on a per-MW basis, especially when very large quantities of renewable resources must be added.
E3 began its definition of major areas of concentrated resource potential by a high-level comparison of resource-by-resource geography, taking into account excluded areas. This approach is illustrated in the following figures.
6

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling
Figure 1. Major Areas of Geothermal Resource Potential
11/13/07
Source: Lovekin, Jim. Geothermex. “Geothermal Inventory,” GRC Bulletin Nov/Dec
2004.
7

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling 11/13/07
Figure 2. Major Areas of Solar Thermal Resource Potential – Excluded Areas
Removed.
Inyo/Mono
17,094 MW
Kern
16,853 MW
Los Angeles
8,713 MW
San Diego
5,544 MW
Source: CEC, Renewable Resources Development Report, 2005
San Bernardino/
Riverside
28,917 MW
Imperial
12,529 MW
Source: CEC, Renewable Resources Development Report, 2005
8

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling
Figure 3. Major Areas of Wind Resource Potential, Minus Exclusion Areas.
11/13/07
Source: CEC Wind Resource Potential Map
9

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling 11/13/07
Figure 4. CALWEA map of proposed wind projects, overlaid with ovals indicating high wind potential zones.
10

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling
Figure 5. Wind potential in southern California.
11/13/07
Figure 6. Northern CA Wind Map - NREL
11

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling 11/13/07
Figure 7. Indication of California renewable resource zones, based on comparison of high resource potential regions for wind, CSP, and geothermal. Key: Blue = wind, green = geothermal, orange = CSP.
12

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling 11/13/07
Table County-5 below shows the mapping of the resource cluster areas identified in the high-level mapping process (see Figure 7 above) to California counties. This mapping forms the basis for allocation resources to California zones.
Resource Cluster Territory Included in Cluster
CA - Distributed Biomass and Biogas sites across CA
Bay Delta Counties in CA: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Solano
CFE Renewbale potential in Baja California, Mexico: La Rumorosa,
Mexicali, Ensenada, Tecate
Geysers/Lake Counties in CA: Colusa, Lake, Sonoma
Imperial Imperial County, CA
Mono/Inyo Counties in CA: Inyo, Mono
NE NV Counties in NV: White Pine, Elko (NREL Zone 36)
Northeast CA Counties in CA: Lassen, Modoc, Shasta
Reno Area/Dixie Valley Counties in NV: Carson City, Churchill, Douglas, Esmeralda,
Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lyon, Mineral, Pershing, Storey,
Washoe (NREL Zones 34, 35, 37)
Riverside Riverside County, CA
San Bernardino San Bernardino County, CA
San Diego San Diego County, CA
Santa Barbara Santa Barbara County, CA
Tehachapi Kern County, CA
Tables CA-1 and CA-2 below show the renewable resource potential, in MW of capacity and GWh of energy, for the California zones (or resource clusters). These values are derived by aggregating the county level resources to the zonal level.
Resource Cluster
CA - Distributed
Bay Delta
CFE
Geysers/Lake
Imperial
Mono/Inyo
NE NV
Northeast CA
Reno Area/Dixie Valley
Riverside
San Bernardino
San Diego
Santa Barbara
Tehachapi
Biogas
300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Biomass
600
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Geothermal
0
538
1,986
0
0
151
0
255
1,316
0
48
0
0
0
Hydro - Small Solar Thermal
0 0
27
0
11
0
0
0
0
12,529
3
0
0
0
18
0
8
0
0
17,094
0
0
7,449
7,234
21,683
5,544
0
16,853
Wind
0
3,055
5,020
170
3,414
2,661
1,488
2,931
3,230
3,394
14,007
2,198
575
10,755
13

California Zones v.4 CPUC GHG Modeling 11/13/07
Resource Cluster
CA - Distributed
Bay Delta
CFE
Geysers/Lake
Imperial
Mono/Inyo
NE NV
Northeast CA
Reno Area/Dixie Valley
Riverside
San Bernardino
San Diego
Santa Barbara
Tehachapi
Biogas
2,102
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Biomass
4,205
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Geothermal
0
0
0
4,242
15,657
1,190
0
2,011
10,374
0
378
0
0
0
Hydro - Small Solar Thermal
0 0
144 0
0
33
0
95
0
0
43,902
57,403
0
15
0
0
0
32
0
0
0
0
24,287
25,348
75,978
18,460
0
58,285
Wind
0
7,552
12,519
422
8,514
6,678
4,276
7,354
9,254
8,495
34,922
5,623
1,470
29,652
Table CA-3 below shows the busbar levelized cost of energy by resource type within the
California resource zones. These costs are based on the resource class specific data within each zone, and other costs detailed in the technology-specific cost reports and summarized in the “New Generation Cost Summary” report.
Table CA-3. Busbar Levelized Cost of Energy by Technology by Resource Cluster (2008 $/MWh)
Resource Cluster Regional Multiplier
CA - Distributed
Bay Delta
1.20
1.20
CFE 1.00
Geysers/Lake 1.20
Imperial
Mono/Inyo
NE NV
1.20
1.20
1.09
Northeast CA 1.20
Reno Area/Dixie Valley
Riverside
San Bernardino
1.09
1.20
1.20
San Diego 1.20
Santa Barbara
Tehachapi
1.20
1.20
Biogas n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
$91 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Biomass n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
$118 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Geothermal n/a n/a n/a
$87 - $115
$85 - $144
$81 - $107 n/a
$81 - $103
$55 - $277 n/a
$92 n/a n/a n/a
Hydro - Small Solar Thermal n/a
$81 - $119 n/a n/a n/a
$176 - $177 n/a n/a n/a
$88 - $220 n/a
$120 - $186 n/a n/a n/a
$107 n/a n/a
$128
$130 - $137 n/a n/a
$119 - $125
$128
$128
$130 - $136 n/a
$130
Wind n/a
$74 - $101
$57 - $84
$74 - $101
$68 - $101
$68 - $101
$62 - $80
$68 - $101
$62 - $92
$68 - $101
$68 - $101
$68 - $101
$68 - $101
$68 - $101
14