Development and Implementation of Operational Coastal Forecasting Systems by
NOAA’s National Ocean Service
Frank Aikman III, Edward Myers and Aijun Zhang
NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS), Silver Spring, MD 20910 frank.aikman@noaa.gov
; 301-713-2809 x101
NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) applies hydrodynamic models for the development, transition and implementation of Operational Forecast Systems (OFS) in U.S. estuaries, ports, lakes and the coastal ocean. These systems have applications on synoptic time scales (hours to several day forecasts) in the support of safe and efficient marine navigation and emergency response as well as marine geospatial and ecological applications. There are currently thirteen water bodies in which OFSs are functioning. Once tested, fully evaluated, and deemed accurate by NOS standards, the systems are transitioned into the operational environment. The technical components of a real-time coastal and estuarine modeling system are configured in terms of a
“standard” Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) which increases the efficiency of research, development, transition and operations. The COMF includes the operational management of observations and forecasts of atmospheric, coastal and riverine inputs, as well as the operational quality control and dissemination of results. It also includes protocols and software for the skill assessment of operational forecast systems. COMF provides tools, observational data, and a test bed with which to configure, execute, and determine model uncertainties. A new strategy of transitioning from individual port or estuarine models to a regional modeling approach is also being developed. The first NOS regional model was recently implemented for the northern Gulf of Mexico. A similar approach is being planned for the U.S.
West and East Coasts. Current OFS coverage is ~30% of the coastal continental U.S. The NOS target is to have 100% coverage within five years. The vision is a system of OFS coastal models operationally coupled to atmospheric models, to global or basin-scale ocean circulation models, and to river or hydrologic models. The OFSs will also provide the operational physical foundation (inputs) to future operational ecological models and for evaluation of the coastal impact of climate change.