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A review of impacts of climate variability and change on semi-arid agricultural systems of Ethiopia:
Action steps and principles for adapting agriculture to climate variability and change
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Habtamu Admassu, Kidane Georgis, Olani Nikus, Aklilu Mekasha, Mohammed Yesuf, Kinde Tesfaye,
Emana Getu, Melesse Temsgen, Dejene Aberra, Mezgebu Getinet, Lemma Desalegn, Tolessa
Debele,Solomon Assefa, Setegn Gebeyehu, Tsegaye Ketema,, Tesfaye Gissila and Henry F. Mahoo3
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Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Melkassa Agricultural Research Center, P.o.Box: 436,
Nazreth/Adama, Ethiopia, 3Sokoine University of agriculture, P.O.Box 3003, Morogoro, Tanzania
ABSTRACT
Agriculture is the pillar of the Ethiopian economy. However, it is affected very much by challenges of
climate variability and change. Climate change has caused drying of lakes, and reduced water availability
in reservoirs. It has also caused loss of the bio-diversity. Ethiopia’s GDP fluctuates with rainfall as well.
Due to climate change, human food and livestock feed have been reduced, and crop diseases and pests
have shifted in geographic spread. Household farm power and fuel supplies are threatened, and ecosystem
has shifted in a pace difficult to cope with. Thus, climate change is not a distant worry in Ethiopia any
more – it is real, it is happening and will continue to happen. The key issue now is how the agrarian
community can be assisted to adapt to these changes and produce enough food on sustainable basis and
reduce poverty and achieve the desired food and feed security. A synthesis based on extensive review of
available literature on the historical impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural systems
of the semi-arid areas of Ethiopia revealed that the critical answer lies in implementing action steps and
adopting principles aimed at: developing capacity for adapting agriculture to climate variability and
change. These should include increasing public awareness about climate change impacts, and encouraging
them to implement available adaptation options, enhancing rain water productivity, financing localized
climate variability and change adaptation options, developing and promoting agricultural rainfall risk
insurance schemes, improving institutional capacity to generate and apply climate information at local
level, developing and improving human capacity in climate change science, and harmonizing policies and
institutional frameworks affecting climate change adaptation.
Keywords: Adaptation, Action steps and principles, Climate variability and climate change, semiarid agricultural systems
1. INTRODUCTION
In Ethiopia, climate variability and change has serious direct impacts on natural resources, agricultural
output, road and transport services, water intensive-industries, electric power production, and on human
health. Climate driven agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic pillar accounting for over 40% of
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GDP and 90% of national foreign exchange earnings (USDS, 2007). The sector is sensitive and subject to
climatic variations and frequent droughts which contributes to massive food shortages. The Initial
National Communication of Ethiopia (NMSA, 2001) show decreasing trend in annual rainfall over the
Northern parts of the country and increasing trends over the Central parts of the country. Global
Circulation Model projections for the year 2030 show an increase in temperature by 1oC and a decrease of
rainfall by up to 2%. According to these projections, climate change is the cause of high current climate
variability and will increase the frequency of extreme events making agricultural sector more vulnerable.
This will definitely culminates in poor harvests and/or complete crop failure, leading to shortages of food,
pasture and animal feeds (UNFCCC, 2001).
Examination of the long-term rainfall data of 92 meteorological stations in Ethiopia indicated a
coefficient of variation (CV) ranging from 20-89%. Fifteen (15) of the 92 stations data examined had CV
of more than 50% indicating the extreme variability of rainfall in the country (Figure 1). From Figure 1,
there is a decline in the total amount of rainfall as variability increases. In semiarid areas where rainfall is
already unreliable, this has severe impacts on crop production (Habtamu, et al., 2007).
2. Manifestation of climate change impacts
2.1 Flood, frost and drought extremes
In Ethiopia, climate variability, and frequencies of extreme events have increased over time. For instance,
flooding has become a common problem and occurs in lowlands where rivers flow over the gentle slopes
with higher volume of water from the highlands. The Awash River in Afar region, Baro River in Gambela
region, Wabeshebele, Genale and Dawa rivers in Somali region, Omo, Weyto and Segen Rivers in South
Omo region commonly inundate large area of grazing lands and inflict heavy loss of life and damage to
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resources. Flooding caused by heavy rainfall and river overflowing has regularly affected people and their
property, especially those in the low lying areas of Somali, Afar, Gamella, Oromiya, Amhara and the
Southern regional states. The devastating flood incidences in Dire Dawa city, Gode in the Somali
Regional State and South Omo in the South Nations and Nationalities and Peoples Regional State
(SNNPRS) in 2006 are recent examples. Flash floods affect all regions depending on the intensity of
rainfall. Some floods such as those in 1996 and 2006, triggered disasters which claimed the lives of
hundreds of people, displaced hundreds of thousands and destroyed physical, natural and economic assets.
According to UNDHA (1995) and Osman and Sauerborn (2002), a series of flooding had inflicted
environmental as well as socio-economic damage to the central highlands of Ethiopia.
Extremely cold temperatures are becoming common in the highland areas of the country exacerbating the
existing food insecurity. Fore example, the incidence of frost damage to field and vegetable crops as well
as some ornamental plants grown in the valley bottoms and lower landscape positions particularly in the
surroundings of Sinkhole lakes and the lower positions of the sub-catchments in the highlands of East
Hararghe is often taken for granted with varying degrees of severity from year to year. However, unlike
other years, frost incidence occurred twice at the end of 2004 cropping season in these areas. The first
incidence occurred between late October and mid to late November with some deviations depending on
localities, and caused severe damage on field crops (mainly sorghum and late planted beans) and some
vegetable crops (Alemaya University, 2005).
Through out its history, Ethiopia has encountered a number of drought crises. There is an increase in the
frequency of drought from one in 100 years in the 1st century to one in six years in the 20th century and
also once in 3 years around the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. In general,
the intensity, frequency and the effects of droughts have increased since the mid 1970s. Besides climate
variability, the dramatic increase in the frequency of drought in the past three decades is attributed to
global climate change.
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2.2 Impacts of on crop production
Impacts of climate variability on crop production are manifested through its effects on planting times,
growing season length, crop type or cultivars choices and over all harvest size and productivity.
Therefore, crop production in the country is vulnerable to the effect of failure of rains or occurrence of
successive dry spells during the growing season, which often leads to food shortage. Though food
shortage resulting from adverse climatic conditions is not new in this country, it has increased in severity
and there have been frequent shortages in recent years. As a result of failure of the short and long rainy
seasons in 2002, lowland areas in the North, East, South and Central parts of the country faced severe
food shortages (FEWS Ethiopia Food Security Warning, US Agency for International Development,
2002). Some midland areas were also badly affected due to extended dry period between mid-April and
end of July. Reduction in maize and sorghum production in drought affected lowland areas is estimated
between 70% and 100%. Some surplus producing parts of the country have also been adversely affected.
The overall national food availability in the country was thus low. In coffee producing areas in western,
southwestern and eastern parts of the country, coffee, the country's main cash crop on which almost 15
million people depend, harvest in 2002/03 declined by 30% due to drought. Preliminary production
assessment results indicate that total annual crop production in 2002 decreased by 21% compared to the
five previous years. According to Devereux (2006) crop yield decline and high vulnerability of food
production are due to rain failure in semi-arid areas in recent years compared to the past decades. Near
complete dependence on rainfall and low-input farming methods are typical features of the Ethiopian
agriculture. Crop yield is strongly correlated with rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Lemi, 2005). Figure 4
on the left shows drought affected sorghum, and Figure 5 on the right side depicts considerable variation
in maize yield with rainfall for typical semi-arid areas of Ethiopia during 1992 to 2002 seasons (Habtamu,
Unpublished). Thus, the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall is the most important factor in
determining national crop production levels. On top of climate variability, climate change is predicted to
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present further serious challenges.
2.3 Impacts on livestock
Climate variability has impacted on feed and water availability for livestock. It has reduced livestock
numbers. This has already claimed lives of millions of livestock and had serious impacts on financial and
capital assets. Thus it has become a major threat to the livelihoods of great majority of pastoralists (Biruk,
2003).
2.4 Impacts on water resources
In Ethiopia, water availability has dramatically reduced in both rivers, streams, lakes and reservoirs. For
instance, climate change in conjunction with human activities triggered by climate related disasters have
killed Lake Haromaya (Tamiru et al, 2006; Furi, 2005). Lake Tana, Lake Ziway (Zeray, 2006), and River
Awash water resources are also under threat (Dekiyos, 2000). There is great fear and challenge of meeting
the demands of the escalating population and its demand on water needs for food production, irrigation,
domestic, municipal, industrial, and energy uses (Sadoff, 2006).
2.5 Impacts on national economy, ecosystems, biodiversity, pests and diseases
Ethiopian economy is also vulnerable to impacts of climate change. Grey and Saddoff (2005)
demonstrated strong links between Ethiopian economy and climate performance (Figure 9). Rainfall
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variability currently costs the country over a-third of its growth potential, and, is likely to reduce it by
38%, and to increase poverty by 25% over a 12-year period (World Bank, 2006).
Besides the economic and other impacts, the other devastating impacts include emergence and
proliferation of human disease such as malaria (Adugna 2002), livestock and crop diseases and pests
(Emana, 2007), and vector borne and water borne diseases. In addition, ecosystem is shifting in a pace
difficult to cope with. Bio-diversity losses are quite phenomenal (Amha, 2006). Furthermore, farm power
and household fuel supply is jeopardised by changed climate, and this has led to desperate actions that
culminated in de-vegetation, which has accelerated the pace of degradation of fertility and tilth (ICRA,
1999). Furthermore, the impact of climate change on food security in Ethiopia is also tremendous
(Stephen, 2000). The above presentation makes it clear that sustainability of climatic driven Ethiopia’s
agriculture is quite under risk.
3. The need for adaptation
Farmers in Northern, Central and Eastern part of Ethiopia have long recognized the changes in climate.
They have set out strategies to cope with variability taking different tracks. Their system based on trialand-error over long years of struggle for survival has in fact made significant contribution to the well
being of their family (Fujisaka, et al., 1996; ICRA, 1999). The greatest agricultural challenge in Ethiopia
is probably to feed the ever escalating population without further degrading the natural resource base.
According to Olesen (2009), climate change significantly enhances these challenges by reducing crop and
soil productivity, and availability of water and by increasing variability of temperature and rainfall. The
increasing confidence in climate change projections and the slowness in adopting effective mitigation
measures to combat climate change put increasing emphasis on effective adaptation measures in all parts
of society. Changes in climate variability will be very difficult for poor-resource and information farmers
to adapt to. Furthermore, adaptation strategies to cope with variability may be different from those
dealing with changes in mean climate (Olesen, 2009). Therefore, newer adaptation plans must be
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developed and employed. In addition, adaptation to climate variability and change being a social process
requires us to assess and respond to past climatic impacts, to increase adaptive capacity and resilience to
multiple stresses, and to formulate plans and policies in ways which reduce the risk of adverse outcomes
in the future. This requires an understanding of present day risks, as well as trends in climate, and how
both may change in years to come. This demands integration of climate change adaptation into national
agricultural development strategy. However, there may be several restrictions to effective implementation
of adaptation options, including social, institutional and technical ones. Perhaps equally challenging will
be the increasing scarcity of water for irrigation and also increasing concern in society for reducing
environmental impacts of agriculture and maintaining biodiversity, which will also be affected by climate
change (Olesen, 2009).
4. Required action steps and principles for adapting agriculture to climate variability and change
Based on extensive review, synthesis and analysis of available literature by interdisciplinary team of
researchers about the impacts of climate variability and change in the agricultural systems of Ethiopia, the
following action steps and principles for adapting Ethiopian agriculture to climate change has been
identified.
4.1 Raise awareness of the public about climate change and its impacts

Encourage NGO’s to launch aggressive public awareness campaigns about climate change
impacts

Mainstream climate change issues into formal and informal education curricula

Invest in communication and knowledge raising products with respect to climate variability and
change impacts
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
Use local-social networks to enhance the speed of co-learning and thereby increase public
awareness
4.2 Rain water productivity

Exploit fully the potential of rainfed agriculture

Learn lessons from past experiences to guide full utilization of existing knowledge and
technologies

Ensure use of climate forecast products to reduce climate induced risks

Take advantage of advances in Information and Communication Technologies

Integrate efficient agricultural water management practices with productivity enhancing
interventions

Manage water to prevent flooding, water logging, erosion and nutrient leaching under increased
rainfall
Exploit the potential of response farming technology
4.3 Financing

Invest into smallholder climate variability and change adaptation efforts

Pay serious attention to use IK for adaptation to climate variability and change

Encourage financial institutions to provide credit on timely and at low interest rate

Promote local savings and credit

Finance local initiatives for natural resource conservation and use

Allocate sufficient budgets for communication, sharing, and scaling up of available climate
change adaptation options
4.4 Develop and promote agricultural risk insurance

Develop and promote rainfall risk insurance schemes

Invest in agricultural risk insurance

Encourage risk financing institutions to insure rainfall risks
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4.5 Institutional capacity

Develop capacity to generate and apply climate information at local level

Make climate information products available timely in a format that that can easily be understood
and utilized by target communities

Enhance the operational and technical capacity of national institutions to develop and disseminate
regularly updated climate knowledge, products and adaptation plans
4.6 Human capacity development

Develop and improve human capacity in the science and practice of climate change and
adaptation

Train researchers in the science of climate change

Target research to fill technological adaptation deficits

Improve extension, education and partnership among stakeholders to effectively address
adaptation deficits

Establish village based platforms and operationalize participatory forecast production and
dissemination mechanisms on sustainable basis

Develop extension workers and researchers capacity in response farming techniques
4.7 Policy

Harmonize policies and Institutional frameworks affecting climate change adaptation

Mainstream climate change adaptation into poverty reduction and food security improvement
efforts

Formulate umbrella policies/strategies to reduce sectoral disconnect for climate change adaptation

Adopt cross - sectoral wide programs that have strong ownership by stakeholders to effectively
address climate change adaptation at different levels

Invest in technologies

Create additional opportunities for off-farm employment
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
Support migration

Invest in research on the use of new crop varieties and livestock species that are more suited to
drought conditions

Encourage informal social networks

Invest in irrigation

Exploit IK for adaptation to climate variability and change

Institutionalize climate change adaptation research
5. Summary and conclusions
5.1 Summary
As indicated earlier, in Ethiopia, extreme climatic events with impacts of varying magnitude are frequent
features. But, recent scientific evidence suggests that the frequency and severity of such events is
increasing, making adaptation an extreme necessity. In Ethiopia, the impacts of climate variability and
change are generally un-mitigated because there is little- knowledge, hydraulic infrastructure,
coordination and financial resource to store and manage water. Our limited adaptive capacity makes these
events beyond control. Thus, the challenge of adapting Ethiopian agriculture to climate change is not only
one of ensuring crop production to maintain food security. It is also a task of maintaining our soil and
water resources while at the same time protecting environment and biodiversity. This puts new challenges
to research to develop and ensure that adaptation strategies are effective not only in terms of crop
production, but also environmentally and economically robust. Adaptation must be addressed in a broad
development context, recognizing climate change as an added challenge to reducing poverty, hunger,
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diseases and environmental degradation. Building resilience to ongoing and future climate change calls
for adaptation to start now by addressing existing problems in land and water management. Strengthening
institutions for land and water management is crucial to effective adaptation and must build on principles
of participation of civil society, gender equality, and decentralization. Information for local adaptation
must be improved, and must be considered a public good to be shared at all levels. The cost of inaction
and the economic and social benefits of adaptation actions call for increased and innovative financing.
5.2 Conclusions
In conclusion, climate change is not a distant worry in Ethiopia any more – it is real, it is happening and
will to continue. The critical answer to assist the agrarian community to adapt to these changes and
produce enough on sustainable basis and reduce poverty and achieve the desired food and feed security
lies in implementing action steps and adopting principles aimed at: developing capacity for adapting
agriculture to climate variability and change. These should include: Increasing public awareness about
climate change impacts, and encourage them to implement available adaptation options, enhancing rain
water productivity, financing localized climate variability and change adaptation efforts, developing and
promotion of agricultural rainfall risk insurance schemes, improving institutional capacity to generate and
apply climate information at local level, developing and improving human capacity in climate change
science, and harmonizing policies and institutional frameworks affecting climate change adaptation.
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Figure 1 Relationship between annual total rainfall and its coefficient of variation based on date from 92
selected locations in Ethiopia (Habtamu, Unpublished).
Figure 2. Farmer clear frost killed khat plantation (left) Figure 3. Floods in 2002 claimed hundreds
and a frost attacked tree (right), January 2005 at of lives in Dired Dawa town in Ethiopia.
Haramaya, Ethiopia, (Source, AU, 2005)
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Figure 4. Drought affected sorghum
Figure 6. Feed supply condition in range lands
Figure 5. Relationship between annual total rainfall
and maize yield in Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
during 1992 to 2002 (Source: Habtamu, Unpublished
data
Figure 7. Drought affected livestock resources in
pastoral areas of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
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Figure 8. Lake Haramaya: dried up since 2005 (Source: Alemaya University, 2005).
Figure 9. Relationship of overall GDP, Agricultural GDP and rainfall in Ethiopia (Source: Grey and
Saddoff, 2005)
Acknowledgement
This publication was supported by the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) program, a joint
initiative of Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the United Kingdom’s
Department for International Development (DFID). The views expressed are those of the authors and do
not necessarily represent those of DFID or IDRC.
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