Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management in Developing

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Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management
in Developing Countries
John Furlow
US Agency for International Development
Glen Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit
Breckenridge 2012
What Is USAID?
USAID at a glance
• An independent federal agency under the general
policy guidance of the US Secretary of State
• Operating in 100 countries with over 75 field offices
• $ billions invested annually in:
•
•
•
•
•
Water and sanitation
Agriculture
Democracy & governance
Economic growth & trade
Environment
•
•
•
Education & training
Health
Humanitarian assistance
USAID’s Climate Change Program
Overall Goal: Assist countries as they develop in ways that reduce
emissions while building resilience to climate change impacts
Mitigation:
Clean Energy: 23 countries, 11 Regions/Bureaus
Reducing net GHG emissions by spurring the deployment of clean energy technologies. Priority
areas: energy efficiency, low-carbon energy, clean transport, and energy sector reforms.
Sustainable Landscapes: 14 Countries, 5 Regions/Bureaus
Reducing net greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector (e.g., tropical forest
destruction and degradation) and augmenting sequestration of carbon in landscapes, including
building capacity to measure, report, and verify emissions reductions.
Adaptation: 19 Countries, 12 Regions/Bureaus
Building capacity in vulnerable countries and communities to prepare for, reduce, or
cope with negative impacts of climate change; Designing resilience into development
assistance.
Adaptation portfolio 2011
Africa:
Asia:
Latin America & Carib:
Ethiopia
Cambodia
Dominican Republic
Kenya
Indonesia
Guatemala
Malawi
Philippines
Jamaica
Mali
Timor-Leste
Peru
Mozambique
Vietnam
Rwanda
Bangladesh
Barbados and Eastern
Caribbean
Senegal
India
Tanzania
Maldives
Uganda
Nepal
East Africa Regional
Regional Mission-Asia (RDM/A)
Southern Africa Regional
West Africa Regional
South America Regional
23 countries
$139 million in total
Adapting to Climate Change
Impacts in Developing Countries
Challenges to Adaptation in Developing Countries
• Underlying development
challenges
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
Education
Governance
Health
Infrastructure
Poor historical records
Poor current weather data
GCM uncertainty
Poorly adapted to current
conditions
• Numerous pressing needs
What Is Adaptation?
• IPCC: adaptation is “Adjustment in systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects. . .”
– Process of examining and understanding vulnerabilities
– Responding in some way to reduce vulnerability, build resilience
Why Adapt to Climate Change?
Ethiopia:
Rainfall,
Agand
GDP,
GDP
Ethiopia:
Rainfall,
GDP
Agric.
GDP
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
20
15
40
10
20
5
0
rainfall variation around the mean
-80
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
year
World Bank
2000
-5
-10
-15
-40
-60
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
-20
1983
0
1982
• ~70% of developing country
populations derive income
from agriculture
25
60
percentage
• Developing country
economies concentrated in
climate sensitive sectors
80
-20
-25
-30
Weather, Climate, and Livelihoods
Alerts for East Africa
Major crisis continues; response inadequate 06/07/2011
Conditions worsen in Eastern Horn
05/06/2011
Forecasts poor, crisis likely to worsen
03/15/2011
Poor Oct-Dec rainfall likely in East Africa 11/02/2010
Food security expected to deteriorate further 12/30/2009
Poor start of kiremt season in Ethiopia
08/13/2009
Forecast poor rains to deepen food insecurity 10/23/2008
High and rising food prices continue
08/12/2008
Food aid pipeline faces serious shortfalls
06/23/2008
Forecasts suggest increased food insecurity 03/31/2008
Making the Most of Adaptation Investment
Climate Stress in the Development Context
Economic drivers / Social development objectives:
Inputs or essential conditions:
Natural environment, fresh water, energy, transport systems,
labor, safety, governance, policy, financing, public awareness
Stressors (climate, non-climate):
Changes in rainfall, temperature, SLR, corruption, pollution
Interventions:
Information, capacity building, public awareness, freshwater
management, coastal/marine management
Resilience improved
Program design
Tourism, Agriculture, Manufacturing
Understanding climate vulnerability
Vulnerability: determined by exposure,
sensitivity, adaptive capacity
• Exposure: Is an asset out in the
elements?
– Flooding, drought, erosion,
sedimentation
– Agriculture is exposed, highly
dependent on weather/climate
• Sensitivity: Does exposure matter?
– Are crops suitable to a range of temperatures and precipitation profiles?
•Adaptive Capacity: Can you respond?
–Ag sensitivity can be reduced with irrigation, drainage, crop selection
–Crop and economic diversification can reduce damages
–Insurance spreads risk
15
Objective: Health, productivity, food
Inputs: Infrastructure, water, ecosystems,
management, information, climate, policy
Potential impacts
Vulnerability factors
Stresses
Non Climate
• Poor infrastructure,
maintenance
• Lack of regulation
• Pollution
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive
capacity
What
• Infrastruct.
• Populations
• Ecosystms
Climate
• Increasing temps
• Rainfall variability
Where
• Coastal zone
• Estuaries
• Quality of
infrastruct.
• Type of water
source
• Housing
• Health status
• EWS
• Governance
• Multiple
sources
• Skilled
decisionmakers
• Redundant
systems
Response options
• Seasonal weather forecasts
• Guidance and awareness
• Restore watersheds
• Redundant infrastructure
• Zoning, flexible land use
• Increase water storage
• Damaged
infrastructure
• Lost productivity
• Illness
• Food insecurity
Climate Service Partnership
Climate Service Partnership
Growing consensus that providing climate
information can help decision making
International Conference on Climate Services:
• NOAA, UK Met, German Climate Service,
WMO, Global Framework for Climate
Services, World Bank, USAID
Principles:
• Tailored to decision needs
• Focus on key development sectors
• Open access to data
USAID/West Africa: Climate Adaptation Support
Service for regional development
Value Chain of Climate Information
•Identify User Needs
•Translate Information for users
•Deliver Information
•Apply Information for decision making
•Robust Decisions
IRI – IFRC Map Room:
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.IFRC/.Forecasts/
SERVIR: Tools to Assist Development
21
SERVIR: Disaster Response
Vulnerability and Adaptation Training
Workshop
22
Climate Mapper Tool
Climate Mapper Continued
Rural Radio: RANET
Applying Weather and Climate
information: Index Insurance
Four main “buckets” for risk management
Frequent, less severe
events
Risk reduction
Risk retention
Risk transfer
Post-disaster assistance
Rare, very severe events
27
Probability
Losses
Risk reduction
Irrigation
Water use efficiency
Drought resistant varieties
Training on climate change
Access to forecasts
Reforestation
Community monitoring systems
Grain storage, seed banks
Retained
Insurance
Aid/Relief
Managing Climate Risks: Glacier
Lake Outburst Floods
Glacier Lake Hazards in Nepal
• Tourism: 50% of Nepal’s GDP
• Region accounts for 5% of arrivals
Some Statistics on our expedition:
• 35 scientists, development
practitioners, journalists
• ~25 porters and guides
• ~12 vertical miles walked
• ~75 linear miles walked
• 18 days on trail
Thank You
[email protected]
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate
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