Joshua Tanner
GIS 510 – Final Project
Writeup
12/3/2011
Finding Suitable Relocation Sites in North Carolina
Introduction:
One of the benefits of computers and technology is the ability to store large amounts of (historical)
data that is easily accessible to the public. These datasets can be used in creating models that can
predict future events, or allow scientists to identify global climate trends in a new way. This project
utilizes historical event data and spatial technology to help predict where future events might be likely
to occur.
Problem Statement:
I am a personal fan of the weather channel am particularly glued to the television during hurricane
season. Living on the coast of South Carolina, everybody pays close attention to the tropics and hopes
that we are safe for yet another year. This year hurricane Irene's path skirted along the east coast,
missing South Carolina but making landfall in North Carolina and parts of the northeast. In it's wake
there was major flooding, structural damage, and even loss of life. While news and weather channels
invoke fear by predicting and broadcasting my impending doom, I have decided to rethink where I call
'home'. To determine where my new hypothetical home is to be located, I have decided to determine
where prior natural hazard events have caused injuries or deaths. My goal is to move somewhere that
is safe, but also meets other 'creature comforts' such as being close to water, near a populated city, and
have a low rate of unemployment. The final sites will consist of an intersection of all the following
criteria:
1. Within 10 miles of a populated city (15,000 people or more)
2. Within 5 miles of water
3. Within a county below the NC average (11.7%) unemployment rate
4. Within a county that is below the average for natural hazard incidents (deaths + injuries)
Data Requirements:
Layer Name: NC_Counties
Contents: Contains all counties in North Carolina with a FIPS key that allows easy joins to census and
other National Atlas data.
Source: National Atlas
Layer Name: Major Hydrography
Contents: Surface water polygons (oceans, sounds, eastuaries, rivers, streams, lakes and reservoirs) for
North Carolina.
Source: NC Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (from NCSU Library) Basin Pro8
Layer Name: Hazard Events
Contents: 17 Databases that portray county-level hazard data for the United States between 1995-2000.
Events include: avalanches, coastal events, drought, flooding, fog, hail, heat, hurricanes/tropical
storms, landslides, lightning, severe storms/thunderstorms, tornadoes, tsunamis/seiches, wildfires,
wind, and winter weather.
Source: Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina (National
Atlas)
Layer Name: ACS_10_3YR
Contents: Employment statistics by county, age, and other characteristics.
Source: American Fact Finder (community survey)
Layer Name: Towns_Cities
Contents: Contains all of the towns and cities in North Carolina with population from the 2000 census.
Source: USGS and US Census Bureau (National Atlas)
Layer Name: Roads
Contents: North Carolina road infrastructure features
Source: NCSU Libraries (Basin8Pro)
Analysis Questions:
1.) What is the total area North Carolina that is within 5 miles of a body of water and what percentage
of North Carolina is within that area?
Answer: There are 19,017 square miles of land in North Carolina that are within 5 miles of a water
body which makes up 38.6% of the state. These water bodies include ocean, sounds, estuaries, rivers,
streams, lakes and reservoirs.
2.) What is the average unemployment rate in North Carolina, and how many counties are below it?
Answer: The average unemployment rate in North Carolina is 11.07% and there are 46 counties that are
below this level. This makes up a little more than half of all North Carolina Counties.
3.) What is the total area that meets all of the criteria (within 5 miles of water, near a populated city,
low unemployment and low hazard incident rate)?
Answer: There total area that is suitable for relocation is 1945.6 square miles or roughly 4.0% of North
Carolina's total area.
Analysis Plan (Overview):
The initial factor into deciding my new home location is safety from natural events or disasters. For
the purpose of this project, I am less concerned with the type of natural event, but the amount of
fatalities that came as an end result. The sum of fatalities from each event will be joined to each
county, which will provide an overhead view of potential vulnerability. Next I will select cities or
towns that have a population with over 15000 people and buffer them within 10 miles. With this buffer
I can select counties that touch the buffer boundary. By selecting only the water features that I desire to
live by (beach, sound, river), I can buffer the result and determine which counties are within a desired
distance of the buffer. Finally, the community survey census data (employment) can be joined with the
counties so that we may determine which counties have low rates of unemployment. With these
processes we should have everything needed to answer our analysis questions. The final location will
be determined by finding the largest location that meets the following criteria: 5 miles within a desired
body of water, within 10 miles of a populated big city, be below the mean for all hazard fatalities and
injuries, and also be below the average unemployment rate for North Carolina.
Results:
The results of my analysis illustrate that there are locations within North Carolina that meet all of the
criteria that I am looking for during relocation. The coastal regions were not determined to be ideal
due to the high number of incidents from natural hazard events, possibly from tropical storms and
hurricanes. Some of the largest cities offered large areas that would be suitable, including: Raleigh,
Durham, Winston Salem, Charlotte, and Fayetville. They are located mostly in central North Carolina,
where the western areas may be susceptible to winter related storms and hazards. The total area
available a future site selection is ~1945 square miles representing around 4.0% of the state.
Conclusions:
The results illustrate the ability to perform site selection based on historical and geographic data. The
hazard events data is comprised of data over 15 years, and allows for analysis of where locations might
be prone to future hazards. The final output provides an interesting analysis of North Carolina,
showing that criteria used for this analysis limit the relocation sites mostly to central North Carolina.
This is due mainly to hazard events along the coast and Appalachian regions, but the other factors also
played an important role in these sites. The results also support the concept that larger populations
surround water bodies, and these clusters of larger populations tend to have a lower unemployment
rate. Although these sites were selected based on the analysis of historical data, it is important to note
that there are often shifts in the data over time that could influence the location of these boundaries.
Procedure Log
Objective:
Find areas within 10 miles of towns and cities with a population of 15000 people or greater
Method: Select
Input Feature: NC_TownsandCities
Output Feature: Cities_15000
Expression: "[POP2000] > 15000"
Method: Buffer
Input Feature: Cities_15000
Output Feature: Cities_15000_Buffer10
Linear Unit: 16090 Meters
Dissolve Type: All
Objective:
Determine areas that are within 5 miles of a major water feature
Method: Buffer
Input Feature: NC_MajHydro
Output Feature: Water_5mi
Linear Unit: 5 miles
Side Type: Outside Only
Dissolve Type: All
Objective:
Find Counties that have an unemployment rate below the mean
Method: Join Field
Input Table: NC_Counties
Input Join Field: [FIPS]
Join Table: ACS_10_3yr_Unemployed
Output Join Field: GEOID2
Join Fields: VCO17
Method: Select
Input Features: NC_Counties(2) (Joined)
Output Feature Class: Counties_Unemploy11_7
Expression: [VC017] < 11.7
Objective:
Find Counties that have had below the average incidents from natural hazard events
Method: Join Field
Input Table: NC_Counties
Input Join Field: [FIPS]
Join Table: Hazards
Output Join Field: [FIPS]
Join Fields: SumIncidents
Method: Select
Input Features: NC_Counties (Joined)
Output Feature Class: Counties_Hazard_8
Expression: [SumIncidents] < 8
Objective:
Determine the intersection of all suitable features
Method: Intersect
Input Features: Counites_Unemploy11_7
Cities_15000_Buffer10
Counties_Hazards_8
Water_5mi
Output Feature Class: Suitable_Intersect
Method: Clip
Input Feature: Suitable_Intersect
Clip Feature: NC_Counties
Output Feature: Suitable_RelocationSites