SUMMARY REPORT
POVERTY-RISK INTERFACE CASE STUDY
CONDUCTED BY THE RESEARCH TEAM IN IRAN
FOR CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL ASSESSMENT REPORT, 2009
DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT, CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES
The economy of Iran has experienced considerable
Figure 1: GDP Per Capita Growth (Percent)
6
developments in recent years, of course with some ups and
5
downs as depicted by Figure 1. Such fluctuations were in
4
great part resulted from fluctuations in oil export revenues
3
due to changes in the world oil prices. Besides changes in oil
2
revenues, the causes for such a fluctuating economic
1
0
performance must be traced back in economic impact of the
-1
Revolution (1979) and the eight-year imposed war with Iraq
-2
(1980-88), among others. Since end of the war the economy
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: CBI (2002, 2003 and 2005a)
managed to improve. As the economy was under pressure by
high population growth of 1980s, the growth rates of per capita GDP during the recovery years
after the imposed war should be considered. A sectoral disaggregation of GDP indicates that
considerable dependence of agricultural products to climate changes, and bearing in mind the vast
drought in the said period, the low share of agriculture in GDP further dropped in favor of other
sectors of the economy, from 14.3 percent in 1991 to 13.7 percent in 2004.
The recovery of per capita growth rates between 1991 and 2004, compared with the low (and
in some years, negative) rates of the previous decades, was mainly contributed by a steep drop in
Figure 2: HDI and its components (percent)
population growth. On top of that, considerable
measures were taken aimed at expansion of economic
growth rate, control of inflation, reduction of foreign
debts, reduction of budget deficit, enhanced utilization
of existing economic capacities, unification of the
foreign exchange rate and reduction of economic
vulnerabilities caused by external shocks.
Of three components of Human Development
Life expectancy index
Education index
GDP index
Index (HDI), education index experienced lower
Source: CBI (2002, 2003 and 2005a)
growth compared to the other two, namely per capita GDP and life expectancy at birth (Figure 2).
GDP index, despite its ups and downs resulting from fluctuations in oil income, enjoyed the
highest growth and has been the driving force of HDI. Moreover, owing to importance of health
and medical issues and special attention paid by government to these issues through significant
investment in health infrastructures particularly in less developed and rural areas, life expectancy
experienced an acceptable improvement. This is further highlighted by the smooth trend of life
2003 2004
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
1991
Summary Report, Iran Risk-Poverty Case Study
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1
2004
HDI
expectancy index. The education index also experienced an increasing trend, though less speedy
than the other two components of HDI.
Iran is facing a big challenge in regard with economic and social needs of the growing
number of population. The young people are emerging into adulthood and, together with the
increasing number of migration inflows towards the large cities and economic poles of the
country, will sharply augment the size of the labour force and, therefore, need new economic and
social facilities like decent and secure jobs, education and health services. The economy will
therefore be confronting a high supply of labour force and the phenomenon of population ageing
in near future.
A study of HDI and its components, disaggregated by provinces, provides a clear picture of
disparities among regions and raises the necessity for planners and policy makers to pay due
attention to redistribution of development resources among regions (Figure 3).
Figure 3: HDI by Province (percent)
90
Life expectancy index
85
Education index
GDP index
HDI
80
75
70
65
60
55
2
1
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: SCI (2004c and 2004f); MPO and UNDP (1999 and 2004).
Figure3: Human Poverty Index (HPI-1)
Unlike income poverty which is subject to
considerable fluctuations, human poverty is
following a stable decreasing trend (Figure 3). The
30
25
20
15
Summary Report, Iran Risk-Poverty Case Study
10
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Ministry of Health and Medical Education (1999a);
MPO and UNDP (1999).
an
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3
1993
st
ta
es
4
1992
he
rd
Si
Figure 4: Population with expenditures under $1
1991
uc
&B
an
st
es
W
Source: SCI (2002a); Ministry of Education (2004); LMO (2000); Ministry of Science, Research and Technology (2004); Alizadeh et.al. (2000).
NATIONAL POVERTY PROFILE
From a mere income point of view, based on a
poverty line of 1 dollar a day (in PPP), poverty in
Iran has decreased annually by about 17.2 percent
in average (Figure 4). The ratio sharply dropped
from 3.5 percent of population in 1991 to 0.3
percent in 2004. Certainly, this trend was
accelerating from 1992 to 1998.
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2
difference between the fluctuating trend of income poverty and the stable trend of human poverty
indicates that, in spite of decreasing purchasing power (mainly due to increasing inflation) from
1998 to 2001, household expenditures for provision of human necessities have been increasing.
Overall, implementing comprehensive programs aimed at improving welfare indicators and
access to public services in recent decades have resulted in improvements in living standards of
people in need, in particular through improvements in level of social services despite the
significant fluctuations in foreign income from oil exports. Quality of national human capital has
witnessed significant improvements such as reductions in under-five mortality, access to safe
drinking water, higher adult literacy ratios and improved enrollment ratios in different
educational levels, particularly in rural areas.
DISASTER INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE RISK PROFILE
Due to its geo-climatic situation, Iran is a natural disaster prone country. Based on
DesInventar, totally 6,559 natural hazard events were recorded in Iran for the period of 19862007, which caused 74,019 deaths and 508,301 buildings affected (damaged or destroyed). In
average, 3,364.5 people were killed and 23,104.5 buildings were affected per year by natural
hazards during this period.
Earthquake was the most frequent hazard in 1986-2007 accounting for 52.7 percent of total
events. Flood accounting for 38.1 percent of all events was in the second rank. Other hazards,
which totally account for 9.2 percent of events were as follow: storms (3.0 percent), landslides
(1.9 percent), thunder storms (1.4 percent), snowstorms (1.0 percent), hailstorms (0.9 percent),
drought (0.5 percent), forest fire (0.4 percent), avalanche (0.1 percent), strong wind (0.01 percent)
and frost, liquefaction, rains and tornado (altogether 0.04 percent). Except for floods, the upward
trend of climatic hazards is evident from 1986 to 2007. Landslides and storms are the major
contributors to this pattern.
Geologic events represented 53 percent of events, but responsible for 95 percent of recorded
mortality and 73 percent of buildings affected. While climatic events represented 47 percent of
events causing 5 percent of mortality and 27 percent of buildings affected.
Drought, earthquake, flood and storm have been the most important hazards of the country in
terms of causing various risks to the people’s lives and property. Earthquakes have been
responsible for 95 percent of total mortality and 73 percent of buildings affected, followed by
floods, which account for 4.5 percent of total deaths and 23 percent of buildings affected. RudbarManjil earthquake (1990) and Bam earthquake (2003) were mega disasters of last two decades
accounting for about 90 percent of total death. Floods in Loretsan (1991), Tehran (1987),
Golestan (2001) and Kerman (1993), which totally killed 1036 people, put the flood among top
10 killer hazards of Iran for the period of 1986-2007. Drought has affected the people more than
all other hazards and accounts for 37 million affected people around the country, mostly in Sistan
Baluchestan, Fars, Bushehr, Yazd and Kerman provinces. Guno Typhoon (2007) affected more
than 160,000 people in Sistan- Baluchestan province.
Mortality trend, in general, indicates 27 percent decrease in period of 1997-2007 compared to
1986-1996. While occurrence of geologic hazard shows increasing trends up to 126 percent, but
no change in climatic hazards, mortality trend reveals 25 percent and 59 percent decrease due to
geologic and climatic hazards, respectively. Reasons which might explain the declining trend in
Summary Report, Iran Risk-Poverty Case Study
3
number of deaths due to geological hazards despite increasing number of events could be
improved/expanded systems for detecting/registration/reporting geological hazards and
increased public awareness/evacuation measures given occurred devastated earthquakes
following pre-shocks in Manjil and Rudbar. The timely evacuation before the major shock
prevented a high probable large death toll in Lorestan Earthquake on 31 May 2006.
Despite a great diffusion of hazard occurrence across the country, there is a concentration
across a small number of provinces. The least hit provinces by natural hazards, i.e. Zanjan,
Markazi and Ghom, have experienced 1 to 5 natural hazard events per year. At the other end, Fars
and Kerman provinces experienced 23 to 32 hazards per year. Only about 8 percents of Iran’s
Shahrestans (equivalent to Districts) had no recorded natural hazards for the period of 19862007. Numerous of provinces, including South and North Khorasan, Kerman, Fars, Esfahan,
Khuzestan, Lorestan, Kermashah, Ardebil, Gilan, Zanjan, Ghazvin and Golestan experienced at
least 10,000 buildings damaged or destroyed from 1986 to 2007. Gilan and Zanjan were the most
affected provinces in this regard.
Intensive/Extensive risk analysis
revealed that less than one percent of
hazard events were responsible for 92
percent of total death and 62 percent of
buildings affected. Considering cut-off
of 50 death and 500 buildings affected,
96 percent and 90 percent of events
account for three percent of total
mortality and 10.5 percent of total
buildings damage or destruction,
respectively. This pattern is mainly due
to two major earthquakes of RudbarManjil (1990) and Bam (2003). While
the climatic hazards reveals different
Intensive/Extensive risk analysis, based on cumulative percent of event occurrence and death due to all-hazard
(top), geologic hazards (bottom left) and climatic hazards (bottom right), I.R.Iran, 1986-2007
pattern as about two percent and 0.5
percent of climatic hazards were responsible for 43 percent of total death and 10 percent of
buildings affected, respectively. Considering the cut-off of 50 death and 500 buildings affected,
98 percent and 92 percent of climatic events account for 50 percent of total mortality and 32
percent of buildings affected.
120.0
95.4
Cumulative percent
100.0
97.1
100.0
99.4
99.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2.8
3.6
6.0
8.2
1-50
51-100
101-500
501-1000
0.0
>1000
Death class
Event
Death
120.0
120.00
100.0
89.3
94.6
91.1
100.0
97.16
100.00
98.10
100.00
Cumulative percent
Cumulative percent
82.1
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
80.00
57.45
60.00
49.76
40.00
20.00
0.3
0.7
1-50
51-100
1.1
3.3
101-500
501-1000
0.0
0.00
Death class
Event
>1000
1-50
51-100
101-500
Death class
Death
Event
Death
POVERTY-RISK RELATIONSHIP
The number of dead people per ten thousand populations and the number of buildings
destroyed or damaged for a period of 1991 to 2006 has been considered as key variables that
could explain for disaster effects on human poverty. The models applied explain such effects on
household expenditures to measure the economic impact of disasters. This study is not directly
dealing with poverty measures for two main reasons. First, poverty is a human concept that has a
wide range of components, from economic to social, cultural, environmental and even political
ones. The concept of human poverty has in fact been introduced to depict all such aspects of life.
Summary Report, Iran Risk-Poverty Case Study
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In mere economic terms, the expenditures households spend on baskets of goods and services
well represent their physical satisfaction. Second, the standard poverty metrics like FGT are
defined on the basis of a poverty line. For many technical reasons, poverty lines are not calculated
and reported officially in Iran. While some rough estimations of the percentage of poor people are
reported, they are based on the international poverty line definitions of $1 and $2 expenditures
per person per day.
The basic econometric model used here is
cit   i  1i ( Death  cl ) it   2i ( Death  ge)it   3i ( Buildings cl )it   4i ( Buildings ge)it   5i ( Family Size)i   i
Where cti is differences in real expenditures of the urban households (adjusted for prices
using the urban CPI), Death and Buildings are the number of human losses per thousand
populations and buildings damaged or destructed due to natural disasters, respectively, suffixes
"cl" and "ge" refer to climatic and geologic based disasters, respectively, Family Size is included
as a factor affecting people's economic well being as in many poverty studies, and subscript i
refers to province and t is for time.
The reported impacts of natural disasters were not considerable in a number of provinces,
including Isfahan, Ilam, Khuzestan, Sistan & Baluchestan, Mazandaran, Yazd and Golestan, West
Azerbaijan, Fars, Kordestan, Ghazvin, Bushehr, Khorasan and Zanjan. Therefore, these provinces
are excluded from the regression analysis.
The coefficients of the number of death as well as the number of buildings damaged or
destroyed for the most disaster-prone provinces were significant. This suggests that in these
provinces, natural disasters play a main role in economic disruptions of people's lives. In
particular, Ardebil; Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari ;Khuzestan; Semnan; Hormozgan; Yazd; Kerman;
Kermanshah; and Lorestan. are among the disaster-prone provinces where the estimated
coefficients in number of death, number of damaged and destroyed buildings, or both were
significant and consistent with the hypothesis of the study.
Based on differences in demographic, climate, and style of life contexts across provinces, the
results should be interpreted province by province:
Ardebil: The human losses due to climatic disasters harm the economic well being of people,
while those due to geologic disasters still have a positive effect on changes of household
expenditures. Physical damages due to both kinds of disasters have a statistically significant
negative effect on people's standard of living. Family size is not an important factor in economic
situation of households in this province.
Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari: As a province mostly affected by climatic disasters (mainly
floods and frosts), the incidents of death due to such disasters turn to be the only channel of
disaster consequences on peoples standard of living. Physical damages are not important as the
buildings are subject to less damage after climatic disasters than they are during geologic
disasters.
Khuzestan: Human losses affect people's economic life only after climatic disasters, although
not statistically significantly. Building destructions due to geologic disasters have a significant
negative impact. A strange result is the positive effect of building destructions due to climate-
Summary Report, Iran Risk-Poverty Case Study
5
driven disasters. One possible reason could be that geologic disasters like earthquakes almost
destroy buildings and all household's properties and wealth and, therefore, have a long term
impact. On the other hand, climatic disasters cause minor damages to houses, to repair which
people have to spend only part of their savings. However, the affected people can save more in a
longer period of time. As a result, they may have a better and more effective life in their
refurbished shelter. Family size is an important factor affecting people's lives negatively.
Semnan: The number of buildings destroyed or damaged due to disasters have a considerable
negative impact on people's economic status, though the effect is statistically more significant in
case of geologic disasters. Human losses have a positive impact, which is more statistically
significant in geologic disasters. This may be related to the age structure of dead people, in cases
where the economic dependency ratio of households affected has improved.
Hormozgan: As earthquake is a dominant disaster in this disaster prone province situated in
Southern Iran, destruction or damage of buildings due to geologic disasters is the most important
factor making people worse-off economically. However, the number of dead people due to such
geologic disasters considerably improves household's consumption expenditures.
Yazd: Physical losses due to geologic disasters have a negative impact on households'
standard of economic life.
Kerman: As a highly disaster prone province, Kerman experienced the most catastrophic
disaster of the last decade nationwide, namely the Bam earthquake with tens of thousand people
dead and more tan 70 percent of the city infrastructures totally destroyed. The decomposed model
well explains the impact of Bam earthquake. Human losses due to both types of disasters have a
significant negative impact on household expenditures. However, due to a quick response by the
government as well as civil society, the city was physically reconstructed, where old
constructions were substituted by new modern buildings, in course of only a few years. This is
why the model demonstrates a positive estimated coefficient for the number of destroyed or
damaged buildings, which is of course more statistically significant in case of geologic disasters.
Kermanshah: The most important impact of disasters in Kermanshah is proved to be through
building destructions/damages due to climatic disasters. The number of family members is also
another factor of economic difficulties in this province.
Lorestan: As expected theoretically, human losses due to both types of disasters have a
negative impact on the living standard of households in Lorestan. There is the same story about
the impact of physical consequences: building damages/destructions due to disasters provide
households with better economic life (though the estimated coefficient is statistically significant
only for geologic disasters). The reconstruction programs, mainly implemented by the
government, are believed to be the main reason for such an estimation result.
Northern Iran: The provinces that are situated in the edge of the Caspian Sea, including
Gilan, Golestan and Mazandaran, are normally subject to sustained climatic disasters. That is why
their living styles and construction approaches are adapted with such climatic conditions. As a
result, people's economic welfare has not been significantly affected by natural disasters. This is
what our model explains too. Of course, there is an exceptional case for Mazandaran, where
climatic disasters have significant negative impact on living standards through loss of life.
Summary Report, Iran Risk-Poverty Case Study
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Do Disasters Affect Social Well-Being?
Besides the effect of disasters on their economic well being, as depicted by household
expenditures, people may also be affected by natural disasters through social channels. Health
and education are two main social variables that could represent the impact of disasters on social
aspects of life.
The models depict differences in health and education status of people across provinces as a
result of disaster-related human and physical losses as well as other conventional variables such
as the average household expenditures on health and the family size.
Yi   i  1 ( Death  cl ) i   2 ( Death  ge) i   3 ( Building  cl ) i
  4 ( Building  ge) i   5 ( Family Size) i   6 ( Exp.) i   i
The sample includes 28 observations, which is the number of provinces. Explanatory
variables are measured as 26-year averages (covering 1980 to 2006). Two separate regressions for
education and health were run. To measure education, three variables of education index (as a
component of human development index, HDI), adult literacy ratio, and combined school
enrollment ratio were employed. The best results were observed from a linear model with adult
literacy ratio as the dependent variable. To measure the health status of household, also three
variables have been used, namely the life expectancy at birth, percentage of population without
access to an improved water source and percentage of population without access to an improved
health care. The results for the model with life expectancy at birth as the dependent variable were
more reliable.
Human losses due to either of disasters result in reduction of adult literacy ratio: directly
through death of literate members of the household and indirectly through missing the
opportunity of education for those members of the family, who have lost their bread-winner and
have to work instead of going to school. The size of family has also a negative relationship with
adult literacy ratio, because in large families with high dependency ratios, besides the family
head, one or more members have to work and miss the chance of education. It is noticeable that
physical damages caused by natural disasters do not have an effect on literacy ratio. This must be
interpreted as the very special feature of the Iranian people that they assign the first priority to
education of their children, no matter whether or not their property is damaged or lost by natural
disasters. Furthermore, government support is a key factor in keeping the education services
unaffected after natural disasters. Provision of comprehensive education services by government,
particularly in general education level, is also the main reason for statistical insignificance of the
estimated coefficient for household's expenditures on education, as people do not have to pay for
general education in Iran.
The results for health are much similar to those for education: building damage/destruction
due to natural disasters of both types has a positive relationship with life expectancy of people at
birth, though more statistically significant in case of climatic disasters. Government health and
settlement support for families, whose houses are damaged/destroyed by natural disasters, could
be one main reason why the health status of affected households improves after natural disasters.
Human losses in a family considerably lower the life expectancy of the survivors. It is interesting
Summary Report, Iran Risk-Poverty Case Study
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to observe that the value of estimated coefficient for the number of death due to climatic disasters
is much greater than that for geologic disasters.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Studying hazard and risk profile of Iran reveals some crucial points that would be worthy to
be considered in policy making for disaster risk reduction and preparedness. While earthquakes
are responsible for 90% of death due to all natural hazards in Iran, occurrence of destructive
earthquakes would not be a surprise to Iranian community during next decade. High levels of
seismic risks, low resistant buildings and some infrastructure all over the country along with high
population density in urban areas increase various risks of Iranian communities caused by
earthquakes. Focusing the policies including techno-legal re-enforcements and investment of
resources on structural and non-structural mitigation along with raising public awareness and
strengthening the response capacity are highly recommended. It is worthy to mention that the
country has taken effective steps in this regard so far. As was mentioned above, decreasing trend
of mortality comparing two periods of 1986-1996 and 1997-2007, despite the increasing trend in
hazard occurrence, can be explained by number of interventions which are taken by the
Governmetn in effective risk management. Those measures include extensive investment in
improving/renovating the non-resilient structures in less developed and rural areas through
provision of soft loans and technical services, along with strengthening engineering inspecting
systems throughout the country. However, with regard to available resources and knowledge for
improving buildings resilience to earthquakes strengthening/institutionalizing those measures is
highly required.
Occurrences of climatic events in Iran have been on upward trend in line with the global
trend during last decades. Nowadays, there is growing evidence that the communities are being
suffered from the small scale disasters with few numbers of death and damage to properties,
which is called extensive risk. Since the people and policy makers/decision makers usually follow
headlines related to devastating disasters broadcasted by media, there is a concern that small-scale
but recurrent events would be ignored or underestimated by disaster mangers and policy makers
and even are underreported. Increasing pattern of extensive risk underpin the need to
strengthening local disaster management systems through enhancement of community-based
initiatives and strengthening the system at provincial and district levels. Fortunately most of the
climatic hazards can be warned early. The successful experience of early warning in Guno
Typhoon emphasize on strengthening of effective early warning systems.
The last but least policy implication that the current study suggests is the need for
strengthening the capacities of affected communities to rebuild their livelihoods than provision of
non-targeted/equal subsidies/aid to all affected population. This would help preventing adverse
effects on people’s well-being particularly extensive risks caused by climatic hazards.
National Disaster Management Organization (NDMO) of the Islamic Republic of Iran has
suggested important additional recommendations as follows:
- More attention to preventive measures,
- Rapid exchange of information on occurrence of disaster disasters
- Re-enforcement of critical public buildings
- Promotion of insurance and supportive funds
Summary Report, Iran Risk-Poverty Case Study
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Statistical Sources: Poverty Sections: CBI (Central Bank of Iran); SCI (Statistical Center of Iran); MoE (Ministry of Education);
MSRT (Ministry of Science, Research and Technology); MHME (Ministry of Health and Medical Education); LMO (Literacy
Movement Organization) and UNDP HDI and reports. Risk Sections: UNDP-Supported Iran DesInventar was the main source, in
which data from NDTF (National Disaster task Force), CRED, Etelaat Newsletter, FRWO (Forest, Rangeland and Watershed
Organization), Ministry of Road and Transportation is entered. However, the outstanding verification process of DesInventar is yet
to be completed by the NDMO/MoI (National Disaster Management organization of Iran).
This study was supported under the Government of the Islamic republic of Iran and UNDP Iran Joint Five-year National Programme
Strengthening Capacities for Disaster Risk Management. It was coordinated by Dr. Victoria Kianpour, Programme Analyst, Disaster
Risk Management and Recovery, UNDP Iran with inputs from Dr. Mirzamohammadi, the Leading Consultant (Poverty Section) and
Dr. Ali Ardalan, Technical Consultant (Risk Section). Establishment of Iran DesInventar was facilitated by Shaswati Das (UNDP
Consultant) and Abhilash Panda, IUNV with inputs from Julio Serje (UNDP International Consultant) and data was collected and
entered into system by a team of local university students from Tehran University. The team was led by Amin Shamsoddini.
Acting National Programme Manager: Farzaneh Agharamezanali
National Programme Director: Behnaz Pourseyed
Summary Report, Iran Risk-Poverty Case Study
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