Workshop on Use of Ensemble Prediction
(Beijing, 16-20 October 2000)
Provisional Programme
MONDAY 16
08h30 Registration
09h00 Opening ceremony
09h30
1. Recapitulation on ensemble forecasting systems:
In particular, different perturbation techniques of initial analysis
- Grouping, clustering or tubing on a geographical region
- Types of display products generated (plumes, spaghetti plots, mean fields, groups,
patterns)
Keynote speaker: - Mr Antonio GARCIA-MENDEZ, ECMWF
11h00
2. Statistical interpretation of ensemble output:
- Ensemble spread as an indicator of skill of the ensemble mean and of the
operational deterministic model or forecasting forecast skill
- Calculating probabilistic forecast
Keynote speaker: 2.1 - Dr Laurie WILSON, CANADA on “Statistical interpretation methods
applied to ensemble forecasts”
12h30 Lunch
14h00
Other speaker:
2.2 - (Abstract) Dr Anatoly MURAVIEV, RUSSIA on “Making best use of
Ensemble Long-range Forecast Products”
14h45
3. Verification of ensemble forecasting:
- How to verify?
- Verification of probabilistic forecasts
- Calculation of forecast reliability
Keynote speaker: - Dr Laurie WILSON, CANADA on “Strategies for the verification of
ensemble forecasts”
TUESDAY 17
09h00
4. Making best use of the “ensemble forecast” products, of probabilistic forecast,
forecast reliability and confidence index, as a forecaster.
Keynote speaker: 4.1 - Mr Jean NICOLAU, FRANCE on “Use of Ensemble Forecasting at
Météo-France”
Other speakers: 4.2- Dr Ken MYLNE, UK on 4.2.1 “The use of Ensembles in Operational
Forecasting at the U.K. Meteorological Office and 4.2.2 “An Operational
Display System for Ensemble Products””
4.3 - Mr Ove AKESSON, SWEDEN on “Use and application of EPS at
SMHI”
12h30 Lunch
14h00
5. Making best use of probabilistic forecast and confidence index as a public user
(economic applications)
Keynote speaker: 5.1 - Dr Ken MYLNE, UK on “Decision-making from probability forecasts
using calculations of forecast value”
End of afternoon: Visit of CMA forecasting office and computer centre

The schedule might be adjusted as need arises.
WEDNESDAY 18
08h00
6. Making best use of “multi-model ensembles” and “super ensembles”.
Keynote speaker:
6.1 - Dr Ken MYLNE, UK on 6.1.1 “Multi-model Ensembles, Poor Man’s
ensembles and Super-Ensembles” and 6.1.2 “Quasi-operational multimodel multi-analysis ensembles on medium-range timescales”
Other speaker:
6.2 - (Abstract) Dr Tony SIMMERS, NEW ZEALAND on “Ensemble
Forecasting in New Zealand”
09h45
7. Applications of ensemble forecasting products for short-range forecast:
- the forecaster view and user view (probabilistic versus deterministic)
Keynote speaker:
7.1 - (Abstract) Dr Steve TRACTON, USA on “Short-range Ensemble
Forecasting (SREF) at The National Centers for Environmental
Prediction”
Other speaker:
7.2 - Mr Jean NICOLAU, FRANCE on “Short-range Ensemble
Forecasting”
11h30 Lunch
Afternoon: Excursion
THURSDAY 19
09h00
8. Applications of ensemble forecasting products for medium-range forecast:
- the forecaster view, the public user view and the professional user view
(probabilistic versus deterministic)
Keynote speaker:
8.1 - Mr Warren TENNANT, SOUTH AFRICA
Other speaker
8.2 - Dr YANG Xuesheng, CHINA on “Ensemble Prediction System at
NMC/CMA”
8.3 - Dr Laurie Wilson, CANADA on “Ensemble forecasting - The
Canadian Experience”
12h30 Lunch
14h00
9. Applications of ensemble forecasting products for extended and long-range forecast:
- the forecaster view, the public user view and the professional user view
(probabilistic versus deterministic)
Keynote speaker:
9.1 - Mr Antonio GARCIA-MENDEZ ECMWF
Other speakers:
9.2 - Dr Soji KUSUNOKI, JAPAN on “Dynamical long-range forecasting
activities at JMA”
9.3 - Dr GONG Jiandong, CHINA on “Ensemble Forecast Method and
Application in Monthly Dynamical Extended-Range Forecast”
FRIDAY 20
9h00
9. (Continued)
Other speakers:
9.4 - Dr Iracema CAVALCANTI, CPTEC/INPE, BRAZIL on “Weather
Forecasts and Climate Prediction at CPTEC”
9.5 (Abstract) - Dr Marathan Soman, INDIA on “Ensemble Seasonal
Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon with AGCM”
10h45
10. Availability of ensemble forecasting products on GTS, on INTERNET?
Discussion
12h30 Lunch
14h00
10. (Continued)
- Wrap-up - Recommendations
16h00 End of workshop