Weather Information for FIHTA Members
Issued 6pm Saturday 13 March 2010
At 5pm TC Tomas was now located approximately 500km north of Vanua Levu and moving
southwest at about 12kmph. Presently it is officially rated a strong category 2 cyclone by Fiji
Met Service with average winds of 100kmph and gusts to 130kmph however the Joint Typhoon
Warning Centre has it now at the lower end of Hurricane force (Category 3) with their winds
estimated to be averaging 130kmph with gusts to 170kmph. Either way it has certainly
intensified in the past 6 hours with satellite imagery showing increasingly tight banding of the
convective clouds around the centre with indications an eye is trying to form. The surrounding
environmental conditions remain very favourable for further strengthening tonight as it tracks
towards Fiji.
The overwhelming consensus continues to favour southwest then southerly movement taking it
directly towards the Vanua Levu coast. Attached are the forecast charts for movement from
JTWC and Fiji Met Service. Please be aware that all the times on both forecast tracks are Z or
UTC (Universal Time Corrected) time - to calculate the local (Fiji Daylight Savings) time you
must add 13 hours to the indicated time on both charts.
In both cases landfall is expected to be somewhere along the north coast of Vanua Levu.
However there is some disparity with the forecast time for landfall between the two charts.
JTWC are forecasting landfall on the coast just before 15/0000Z which (adding 13 hours) is
around noon to 1pm on Monday 15th. On the other hand Fiji Met Service are forecasting landfall
about 18 hours later just prior to 1800 UTC Monday 15th which is around 7am Tuesday 16th
local time. I would suggest you plan on the earlier arrival time as it is better to be prepared too
early than too late.
At landfall both agencies are forecasting TC Tomas to be a mid to strong Category 4 cyclone
with winds near the centre gusting up to 260 or 280 kmph. This makes it a potentially very
destructive cyclone and those in the direct path (Lau, Vanua Levu, Taveuni, Lomaiviti including
Ovalau) should prepare for a major impact. Those in the central division including greater Suva
and Nausori are strongly encouraged to consider adopting the same measures in case of
unexpected movement away from its forecast path.
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Secure property and store away loose objects.
Place shutters over doors and windows
Store water, non-perishable food, batteries and dry clothing somewhere secure if possible
Know the location of the nearest evacuation centre and have a plan for evacuation if
required. Deciding to evacuate when it is too late and the storm is near is hazardous and
can result in injury or death.
FOLLOW ALL LOCAL ADVISORIES FROM DISMAC AND LOCAL
AUTHORITIES
Those in the west should consider adopting precautionary measures - even if you do not feel the
direct impacts you can still be affected by rain and flash flooding, as well as experiencing water
and electricity cuts if other critical places within the country are affected.
Be aware that exposed coastal communities will likely see very large swells develop tonight and
tomorrow ahead of the cyclone. At high tide tomorrow some sea flooding may develop around
the Lau, Taveuni, Lomaiviti and Vanua Levu areas.
Next update will be issued around midnight tonight