Using Multivariate Statistics to Identify Sensitive Biogeochemical Indicators in the Northern Everglades Corstanje, R., and Reddy, K. R. Wetland Biogeochemistry Laboratory, Soil and Water Science Department, University of Florida-IFAS, FL Portier, K.M. Statistics Department, University of Florida, FL The extent of vegetation displacement in the Northern Everglades and resulting changes in environmental conditions (loss of slough habitat, substrate quality for e.g.) has resulted in a need for a sensitive set of indicator(s) that prelude changes in the vegetative communities in response to nutrient enrichment. Microbial communities play a critical role in nutrient cycling, mediating and responding to nutrient levels. Consequently, multiple microbial parameters have been shown to individually respond to nutrient enrichment. However, in this complex array of indicator forms, which is the most sensitive response? Certain data analysis techniques are capable of screening multivariate data arrays in order to select the best “explanatory” variables, i.e. those variables that best distinguish grades of ecological disturbance. In this study, we used the extensive data base collected by researchers at the Wetland Biogeochemistry Laboratory for the past 12 years (Table 1). These biogeochemical data were collected along the eutrophic gradient in the Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA 2A) of the Everglades. We found that when complete set of variables describing chemical composition of soils were used, observations clustered naturally in multivariate groups that, with some misclassification, fell in line with the sites. No misclassification for the samples obtained from the impacted area; slight misclassification for the intermediate and unimpacted site. This precluded the necessity of an a priori classification of the data. Table 1 Description of the soil chemical and biological parameters used in the data analysis Chemical Parameters Total Phosphorus (mg/kg) TP Total Inorganic Phosphorus (mg/kg) TPi Labile Inorganic Phosphorus (mg/kg) Lab. Pi Inorganic Phosphorus (mg/kg) In Pi Fulvic Associated P (mg/kg) FAP Humic Associated P (mg/kg) HAP Residue Organic Phosphorus (mg/kg) ResidueP Labile Organic Phosphorus (mg/kg) Lab. Po Total Nitrogen (g/kg) TN Total Organic Nitrogen (mg/kg) TON Total Kjedhal Nitrogen (mg/kg) TKN Ammonia Nitrogen (mg/kg) NH4-N Total Carbon (g/kg) TC Total organic carbon (mg/kg) TOC Loss on Ignition (%) LOI Calcium (mg/kg) Ca Magnesium (mg/kg) Mg Iron (mg/kg) Fe Aluminum (mg/kg) Al Biological Parameters Microbial Biomass Phosphorus (mg/kg) MBP Potential Mineralizable Phosphorus (mg/kg/d) PMP Potential Mineralizable Nitrogen (mg/kg/d) PMN Microbial Biomass Nitrogen (mg/kg) MBN Microbial Biomass Carbon (mg/kg) MBC Alkaline Phosphatase Activity (ug/g/h) APA B-glucosidase activity (ug /g /h) Beta Dehydrogenases activity (ug /g /h) Dehyd Peptidase Peptidase activity (ug /g /h) Anaer. C02 Anaerobic Microbial Respiration (ug/g/d) Stepwise discrimination of the chemical soil characteristics resulted in two Discriminant functions that best described group membership. A plot of the first two functions (1 and 2 resulting in Can1 and Can2 respectively) is presented in Fig. 2, which illustrates the potential of the canonical Discriminant functions. The set of parameters that compromise Can1 are powerful at Figure 2 Stepwise Canonical Discriminant distinguishing between the impacted Analysis of chemical data set on clusters areas and the derived from the chemical characterization data. Biplot of the first two canonical variables transitional/unimpacted areas. (Can1 and Can2 or 1 and 2). Likewise the set of parameters that compromise Can2 are capable at separating the intermediates site from the unimpacted site. The first two raw canonical variables employed in the discrimination are; 1 = 0.0001*Ca + 0.26*TN – 0.026*TPi – 0.03*Al – 0.106*Lab. Po – 0.025* HAP – 0.001*Mg 2= 0.00004*Ca – 0.47*TN – 0.011*TPi + 0.01*Al + 0.015* HAP + 0.001*TOC – 0.01*FAP These functions are a subset of chemical variables that are the best predictors of group membership, i.e. site. In comparing the standardized coefficients, Can1 consists of a contrast of extractable Ca and total N content to the total inorganic P, extractable Al, labile organic P, humic acid associated P, and extractable Mg (Canr2=.833) and Can2 consists of a contrast of mainly Ca, Al and fulvic associated P with total N and total inorganic P (Canr2=.167). We then projected the microbiological soil characteristics of the observations on the groups established by the chemical soil characteristics. The biological response variables were extraordinarily successful (no misclassification) at predicting group membership of the observations. Discriminatory data Figure 3 Stepwise Canonical Discriminant analysis indicated that mainly the Analysis of biological data set on clusters microbiological measures derived from the chemical characterization associated with the phosphorus data. Biplot of the first two canonical variables (Can1 and Can2 or 1 and 2). cycle were determinant in predicting group (site) membership. The first two raw canonical variables employed in the discrimination are; 1 = 0.0089*MBP – 0.14*PMP + 0.020*PMN + 0.00023*APA 2 = 0.013*MBP + 0.026*PMP – 0.023*PMN – 0.00041*APA In comparing the standardized coefficients, Can 1 consists of a contrast microbial biomass P and alkaline phosphatase with potential mineralizable P (Canr2=.694), Can 2 contrasts microbial biomass P with potential mineralizable N (Canr2=.306). Of the entourage of biogeochemical indicators of ecological disturbance, microbiological measures were more adept at distinguishing a nutrient enriched site, a reference site and an intermediate site. We therefore show that biological responses variables are valid tripwire indicators in case of nutrient impacts, resulting in a selection of Everglades specific sensitive biogeochemical indicators. Ron Corstanje Wetland Biogeochemistry Laboratory Soil and Water Science University of Florida 106 Newel Hall Gainesville Florida 32611-0510 phone 352 3921804 321 fax 352 392 3399 corstanje@mail.ifas.ufl.edu