MANAGING SUCCESSFUL GOVERNANCE REFORMS: LESSONS OF DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION SYNTHESIS AND DESK REVIEW Mark Robinson Executive Summary Overview and purpose This paper presents the findings of three country case studies of successful governance reforms in Brazil, India and Uganda and a desk review of public sector governance projects supported by the World Bank from the late 1990s. In focusing on the political and institutional factors that contribute to successful outcomes, the paper highlights the feasibility of various approaches to improving public sector governance in different country and regime contexts. The case studies examine four areas of governance reforms: public financial management (fiscal management and tax administration), anti-corruption, civil service reform, and innovations in service delivery. The synthesis builds on country specific observations about the conditions for successful reform as a basis for framing generalisations on the factors that influence reform outcomes, rooted in comparisons of political dynamics and institutional factors. The desk review was informed by a range of reports and documents produced by the Bank from ten countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America with a view to generating lessons and insights from diagnostic work and lending activities. The third part of the paper considers the implications of the research for analytical work and Bank lending operations. It seeks to complement economic and sector work in the Bank by highlighting the political and institutional factors that shape successful reform outcomes in different reform contexts. This can deepen understanding of the risks and feasibility of different types of governance reform and how their design and implementation might be improved. Case study findings The case studies demonstrate that the successful implementation of governance reforms is conditioned by three sets of factors: variations in the type of reform, variations in the form of regime, and variations in technical capacity. These distinctions give rise to diverse reform trajectories, characterised by different combinations of political, institutional and technical factors. The case studies indicate that some categories of governance reform are easier to achieve than others. Incremental reforms that are carefully selected to minimise opposition and produce modest benefits in their initial stages have a greater chance of success and sustainability than large-scale reforms that are implemented quickly. These include innovations in service delivery, and measures designed to improve civil service accountability and incentives. These do not entail zero-sum games in that modest benefits resulting from improved delivery of services can generate popular support and embolden reformers, as a means of offsetting opposition from bureaucrats i and politicians who stand to lose power and influence. Bureaucrats also benefit from positive reactions from citizens who receive better services, elevating their status and job satisfaction, thereby creating positive incentives for reform. Reforms that require structural changes in fiscal management, tax administration, and the organisation of the civil service are more difficult to accomplish. Political commitment and material incentives to buy off potential opposition are important contributory factors but sustainability is hard to achieve in the absence of visible results that secure wider political support and societal assent. Reforms that entail wholesale institutional change can be accomplished in two ways: through a gradual, cumulative set of reforms that produce a new pact between interested actors, or the absence of a direct threat to societal interests who can block or derail reform initiatives. The nature of the regime is a major determinant of the political feasibility of reform. Political commitment is a significant factor in initiating and sustaining governance reforms irrespective of the form of regime. Visible commitment from the political leadership provides support to officials responsible for implementation and guards against opposition from those who stand to lose from the reforms. Democratic regimes with elected governments tend towards incremental approaches in order to minimise potential opposition to reform. The decision to embark on reform is motivated by a shrewd calculus governed by an assessment of the potential political costs and benefits. Initial reforms may be modest but there is recognition that the cumulative effect of small changes may generate political dividends from improved outcomes. Non-democratic political contexts enable governments to introduce more challenging reforms as they are able to distribute the costs of reform in a manner designed to minimise opposition. However, a lack of accountability combined with the imperative of maintaining political power in such regimes can subvert the longer term sustainability of governance reforms. The technical capacity of bureaucratic elites is a significant determinant of the success of the design and implementation of successful reforms. A high degree of technical capacity is common to successful reformers. Such capacity may be concentrated in particular ministries and agencies and may take time to cultivate and develop. Technical assistance from aid donors plays a key role where such capacity is initially weak and in short supply. The infusion of new types of technical skills into organisations dominated by traditional civil servants or sector specialists can foster experimentation with new approaches. Insulation of policy makers and technocrats from societal and political pressure at the inception stage provides a durable basis for institutional design, but the exclusion of organised interests during implementation is not conducive to accountability, effectiveness and sustainability. Excessive insulation limits scope for independent oversight and creates opportunities for rent seeking and patronage. Initial insulation followed by gradual opening up of the policy process during the course of implementation appears to be more conducive to successful outcomes. Lessons from the World Bank’s experience Governance reform lies at the heart of the Bank’s overall strategy, premised on the recognition that an accountable and efficient public sector are conducive to positive growth and poverty reduction outcomes. Governance and institutional issues ii routinely feature in country assistance strategies, informed by economic and sector work. Design weaknesses and the failure to anticipate political and institutional challenges were the principal determinants of the poor performance of civil service reform programs in the 1980s and early 1990s. The performance of Bank lending operations for public sector governance has improved markedly since the late 1990s, with growing recognition of the importance of political incentives for reform, the mobilisation of constituencies for reform, and the need to adapt institutional design to local conditions. There is greater appreciation of political and institutional factors in shaping the context of Bank operations and implementation of public sector governance programs at the level of country strategy and in lending operations. The insights of economic and sector work are often reflected in country strategy documents, especially in Latin America, where institutional and governance reviews have informed the design of lending operations. There is some reference in project documentation to the influence of political and institutional factors in determining the feasibility of reform and in shaping reform implementation. The political risk of different trajectories of reform also receives attention in country strategies, with implications for feasibility and pace of implementation. In this respect the recognition that civil service reform may not be politically feasible in many African and Latin American countries is indicative of greater appreciation of the limited incentives for reform. The importance of the time factor is also acknowledged, with the recognition that quick results within a single term of an elected government cannot be expected. The value of an incremental approach is reflected in longer time frames for implementation to allow for the development of a politically feasible sequence of reform initiatives. Country assistance strategies demonstrate growing awareness of the importance of political and bureaucratic commitment in ensuring positive outcomes and the sustainability of reform initiatives. High-level political commitment was undoubtedly a key factor in the successful implementation and sustainability of civil service reform, the formation of semi-autonomous tax authorities, and public expenditure management reforms. The absence of political commitment or prevarication was a contributory factor in the failure to realise reform objectives. There is evident recognition of the need to build incentives in Bank lending programmes to strengthen political commitment and provide leverage for those responsible for reform implementation. Deliberation of proposals for governance reforms within the political executive and the creation of special commissions to oversee implementation was an effective means of deepening support and avoiding excessive dependence on reform champions. However, there is little evidence of wider civil society participation in framing debates and policy options for structural reforms in the public service or tax administration. Such involvement was generally limited to decentralisation and service delivery initiatives that were not the main focus for this review. Anticorruption initiatives were largely focused on legislative and institutional reforms to promote increased accountability but with modest levels of civil society participation. Another theme that comes through strongly in Bank project documentation is the importance of technical capacity for implementing public sector reform programs. While the technocratic bias of civil service reform programs adopted by the Bank in iii Africa in the 1980s and early 1990s is less evident, the existence of capable technical elites within government bureaucracies is recognised to be an essential requirement for designing and managing successful reform as well as an intended outcome of reform exercises. The challenge of strengthening state capacity is recognised in many country programs and specific lending instruments are increasingly deployed to offer policy advice and technical support as a means of addressing capacity constraints. Implications for analysis and operations The findings of the case studies and review of Bank public sector governance projects have implications for economic and sector work and lending operations. The limited availability of comparative data on the impact of the Bank’s governance operations points to the need for more systematic evaluation of country level and sectoral experience. This would enhance internal knowledge of the Bank’s contribution in this area and demonstrate the progress that has been achieved to a wider constituency outside the Bank. Further case studies of successful governance reform in comparable thematic areas (such as public expenditure management and anticorruption) and would help to corroborate and provide greater consistency for the findings of this research, especially in poorer states with severe capacity constraints that are not consolidated democracies. Political feasibility analysis for public sector reform programs would emphasise risks and opportunities of country level reform strategies, taking into account the political characteristics of reform in specific regime contexts. Stronger skills in political and institutional analysis in country offices would be supportive of this approach. The Bank’s revised approach to development policy lending has several implications for public sector governance operations. Experience suggests that explicit attention to the political feasibility of reform, the need to build incentives for reform, and working with reform-minded politicians and bureaucrats would appear to be a fruitful approach. Widespread consultation on governance reform is a risky strategy that can provoke early opposition. Gradual opening up to wider involvement and creating channels for citizen feedback can strengthen domestic constituencies for reform. Longer-term time horizons and an incremental approach are conducive to successful implementation and sustained reform. The risk that governance reform may be downplayed as a policy objective in poverty reduction strategies highlights the need for continued investment in lending operations that strengthen technical capacity and ensure consistent focus on public sector governance issues. iv