A transition experiment on improved biomass cookstoves for rural households to form a technology niche Acknowledgements: The paper is based on two field based projects being undertaken by the The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi. Project Surya is being implemented in close collaboration with the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Unioversity of San Diego, La Jola, California and the United Nations Environment Programme. The project on “ Customisation and dissemination of renewable energy technologies is being implemented in close collaboration with the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, New Delhi. The authors would like to place on record the support and encouragement that the fuding institutions have provided. Ibrahim Hafeezur Rehman, Anupama Arora, Abhsihesk Kar, Ramchandra Pal, P Raman, Vivek Kumar Singh, Lokendra Singh Abstract : Globally, over three billion people dependent on direct combustion of traditional solid fuels (wood, dung and agricultural residues) for meeting their thermal energy needs, are also exposed to high levels of indoor air pollution In India nine out of the ten rural and a quarter of urban households use some form of biomass for cooking. Consequently, according to the World Health Organization 500,000 women and children die every year in India due to indoor air pollution caused by use of solid biomass as cooking fuel (WHO)1. Despite these startling facts, the present trajectory of limited technical and social change in the rural cooking energy, has been nonetheless persistent The recent launch of the Global Allianace on Cookstoves is a recognition of the enormity and the extent of the existing challenge that is cross cutting to include issues related to health, environment and development. However, the landscape of the rural household energy consumption has started to change with the introduction of several commercial cookstove models promoted by some global corporates. In the context of the changing landscape, The Energy and Resources Institute(TERI) in collaboration with Scripps Institute of Oceanography, United Nations Environment Programme (Project Surya) and Department of Science and Technology 1 http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/node/43705 (DST), Government of India (Project on Customisationand dissemination of Renewable Energy Technologies) has been engaged in two transition experiment, that are focussing on altering the dominant socio-technical regime related to cooking energy in rural India.. The experiments by TERI endeavour to create fundamental changes in the dominant socio-technical regime related to cooking energy in rural India by replacement of traditional biomass burning cook stoves and kerosene wicks with cleaner improved cook stoves and solar energy based lighting options. The focus area of the experiments, is the Indo Gangetic Plain (IGP) which is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. In the transition process the dominant regime factors that are being sought to alter include on the technical side the two or three pot mud stove, the socio cultural constraints related to acceptance of the improved biomass cookstoves by women and children being exposed to long hours of smoke (carbonaceous pollutants) and drudgery related to collection of fuel. In the course of the experiment TERI has disseminated close to 1000 improved stoves (forced draft). The transition experiment provides valuable insights into processes related to technology development and testing (including emissions); field trials for assessing the acceptability of stoves; market based mechanism for dissemination; and issues related to operation and maintenance. The present paper focusing on the two experiments examines the current socio-technical regime and the broader landscape factors pertaining to cooking energy needs in rural India and subsequently highlights the key challenges and gaps in the success of the experiment. To this end it undertakes critical analysis of how the complex web of social, economic, technical, organizational, and individual factors interact to influence adoption decision of cooking and lighting technologies at household level. As a means to achieve this, the paper dwells on the theoretical underpinnings of the literature on SNM and transition management. The acceptance of the disseminated technology in the experimental space enables development of niche which has the potential to develop into a market niche that can be commercially sustainable. Eventually, as the geographical spread of the technology increases it gathers the momentum to alter the regime factors, transforming the regime to a more sustainable one. The paper therefore not only highlights the key challenges to success of such transition experiments but also provides useful lessons having significant policy implications for scaling up transition experiment in the rural cooking energy space. The paper closely examines the dynamics of the niche formation processes in two experiments undertaken by TERI (DST and Surya). It further discusses the barriers to change of the current socio-technical regime to a more sustainable one. Since the amount of protection 2 extended in a transition experiment and the time of its withdrawal are important variables in determining the success of transition experiment the paper studies the role of protected spaces by drawing lessons from the two transition experiments which vary widely in context of both the level and type of protection extended. I. Introduction Energy Access and the MDGs When the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were conceived in September 2000, the issue of energy poverty merited only a brief mention. Less than a decade later, it has gained its due importance and today is one of the most important issues in the international agenda, alongside climate change and the environment. While there is no Millennium Development Goal (MDG) specifically related to energy, the Millennium Project emphasizes the central role of energy services for development and it is clear that energy access is vital for achieving the MDGs. The UN Millennium Project commissioned in 2002 to develop concrete action plan for the world to achieve MDGs , has called for adopting the following target to prepare the way for achieving the MDGs: By 2015, enable the use of modern fuels for 50 percent of those who at present use traditional biomass for cooking. In addition, support (a) efforts to develop and adopt the use of improved cook stoves, (b) measures to reduce the adverse health impacts from cooking with biomass, and (c) measures to increase sustainable biomass production (UNDP, 2006). Meeting such targets poses a considerable challenge given the current trends in traditional biomass use in developing countries. However, the issue is urgent given the serious health and environmental impacts of high reliance on traditional biomass. Biomass is used as a primary source of fuel by majority of the rural households in the developing economies in Asia. Biomass (fuel wood, crop residues and cattle dung) accounts for about 40% of India’s primary energy use, with the largest portion being consumed in rural areas (Banerjee 2006). In India 75% of households use solid fuels (firewood and dung), with the prevalence as 2 selective exposure to the selection environment. Protection refers to the shielding of the niche against harsh design and selection rules of the socio-technical regime high as 90% in rural areas (Indian National Census, 2001) Indoor Air Pollution (IAP) related to solid fuel use is therefore a major environmental health concern in India with important public health implications for women & children in particular who are exposed to long hours of drudgery due to the cooking dependent on collection and burning of traditional biomass. Globally, such household combustion is responsible for as much as half of all black carbon emissions from human sources, a few percent of methane and carbon dioxide emissions and significant amounts of total carbon monoxide and volatile organic chemical emissions, contributing significantly to global warming. Biomass is living matter derived from plants and animals. Energy sources from biomass are often divided into two main categories: biomass wastes (or residues) and energy crops. Biomass serves or impacts many inter-connected and critical functions/services, including housing, materials, maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nutrient cycles, water quality, erosion control, and recreation (Johnson, 2007). The effective management and utilization of biomass and bioenergy is the responsibility of the citizens of the society and the community at large as they are they have to play the role of caretakers of the natural resources so that they can be passed onto the future generations. Bioenergy have to potential to create more employments opportunities than any other renewable or non renewable source of energy. Furthermore, these jobs are created mainly in rural areas where poverty is worst, and thus can help to slow down or even reverse migration to urban centres. Rapid degradation of forests and soils for short-term profit will obviously not lead to sustainable livelihoods, whereas careful managed growth strategies can not only maintain the resource base but also in some cases enhance it. Biomass accounts for about 11% of total primary energy consumed globally, more than other renewable and nuclear power together. Unfortunately, however, overwhelming majority of biomass energy—over 80 is consumed as solid fuels in traditional uses at low efficiencies for cooking, heating, and lighting and there are over two billion consumers that rely on traditional biomass fuels and have no access to modern energy services (UNDP, 2004). The impact of the lack of access to modern energy is felt in many ways including deadly effects of indoor air pollution, the tremendous amount of time devoted to gathering firewood, the lack of health and education services that require reliable energy supplies, and many other problems. As a result of international oil price increases, households are becoming increasingly reliant on lower-grade biomass fuels, including unprocessed agricultural residue and cow dung which has been increasing indoor air pollution and causing various respiratory diseases The transition from traditional uses of biomass for energy to more efficient and higher quality bioenergy, often referred to as modern bioenergy, is important for many reasons, but foremost among them the following: Traditional use of solid biomass as fuel can only deliver poorly-controllable heat, whereas modern bio-energy can deliver a variety of efficient and well controllable energy services (Leach and Johnson, 1999). Modern bioenergy is much more likely to be sustainable in the long-term compared to traditional uses, due to savings in land, water, and other resources as a result of higher fuel efficiency and greater precision in matching the mode of implementation to the differing needs of energy users in particular applications. A transition from traditional to modern bioenergy technologies and forms in the developing world is thus an important element in the global transition to sustainable energy. The transition experiments provide means to reform current systems and practices for the better. Their success depends upon learning from the mistakes of the past, avoiding bottlenecks and introducing system level innovation that promote sustainability. In other words, transitioning away from unsustainable structures and practices requires a systems level redesign of the dominant socio-ecological regime and economic system (Beddoe et al., 2009) in a way that it sustains. However, this is a challenging task as existing energy systems are often locked in and are resistant to change (Cowan and Hulte´ n, 1996; Jacobsson and Johnson, 2000; Unruh, 2000). Systems related to rural household thermal energy use are often locked in through technological, institutional and social path dependency, resulting in a variety of barriers for new innovations such as the lack of a fuel infrastructure, the lack of clear government incentives and regulations or a network of incumbent actors that may not support the innovation. II. Need for improved biomass cookstoves The replacement of the traditional lower efficiency cookstoves with improved burning cookstoves has multiple benefits. Research has established that cooking with fuelwood, crop residues, and dung is associated with a significantly higher disease burden than other forms of cooking, due to indoor air pollution (WHO). Cleaner fuels and cookstoves that facilitate lower smoke exposures, as well as improved ventilation of cooking areas, can reduce the disease burden from smoke, lower child mortality rates, and improve maternal health (Smith et al). Further, greater efficiency, combined with enhancements in biomass fuel availability through such programs as agroforestry, can also reduce the time and transport burden of women and young girls who collect biomass, thereby increasing opportunities for education and income-generating work (Reference). III. India case In India close to 600 million people representing 58 % of the population are dependent on traditional biomass (Priddle 2002, p. 11). Majority of the Indian households use biomass in traditional mud stoves with low efficiency levels of 10-15% leading to significant indoor air pollution detrimental to the health and also contributes to climate change. Inefficienct use of fuel wood is considered one of the important causes of deforestation. Some of the key issues concerning use of traditional biomass based mud stoves are as follows; Difficulty in fuel collection. in India, two to seven hours each day can be devoted to the collection of fuel for cooking” (Practical Action 2005, p. 7) Forest deforestation : With rapidly reducing forest cover likely difficulties in the future in getting fuel Exposure to indoor air pollution due to traditional cooking practices and consequent health problems( respiratory problems). Up to one billion people, mostly women and children, are daily exposed to indoor air pollution at levels exceeding WHO guidelines by 100 times, causing respiratory illnesses to children, premature deaths, and miscarriages to pregnant women. Approximately 1.6 million people die from indoor pollution every year, making indoor smoke the fourth greatest health-associated killer (Wilkins 2002, p. 27; Practical Action 2006b, p. 2). Since women and children spend significant portion of the day in fuel collection. The practice keeps women away from useful economic activities and children away from studying Trade-off between using biomass for energy versus agricultural purposes, particularly when the biomass used is animal dung, since it could be used as fertilizer (Priddle 2002). Threat to the safety of women as they are exposed to snake bites, threats, assault, and health problems like back pain, neck pain and fatigue from carrying heavy loads for long distances (McDade 2004) Use of more efficient improved cookstoves is proposed as one of the measures that enable improvements based on enclosure to retain heat, maximization of heat transfer to the pot and improvement in combustion. Improved stoves besides being more efficient and thus enabling women to spend less time finding wood and cooking, also reduce indoor air pollution. The reduced demand for fuel wood and charcoal also helps in lowering the deforestation rate. While the cleaner cooking alternatives are available (Biogas and solar stoves are the best in terms of their impact on climate change and health), for 70% of India’s population currently living in rural areas, feasibilities for alternative (clean) sources of household energy is limited. Also LPG though a clean fuel option has not penetrated rural areas in a big way as it remains unaffordable to people even in urban areas (NSSO). Various models of improved biomass stoves are also available with the so-called “gasifier” stoves being the lowest-emission producing. The improved biomass stoves reduce emissions per unit of fuel as well as improve fuel efficiency and therefore the amount of fuel used and the carbon emissions per unit of delivered energy. Such climate mitigation strategy is expected to have a major positive impact at the local level (reducing fatalities among women and children); at the regional level (avoiding potential negative impacts on monsoon and glaciers that feed rivers like Ganges and Brahmaputra caused by soot); and at the global level (reduction of global warming). In India, it was found by a study that that “users of the improved stoves” actually rank the removal of smoke from the household as a higher priority than energy saving, with the exception of Andra Pradesh, where users picked “smoke removal” as a less beneficial aspect compared to “fuel savings” (Barnes and Kumar 2003). In light of the above factors , it perhaps would be correct to say that the communities with low incomes located in rural areas without access to markets or energy infrastructure are most likely to benefit from improved cookstove projects. Regime factors that the experiments seek to alter The use of trqaditoinal biomass based mud stoves and transition to improved cookstoves requires a change in the following regime factors Cultural factors associated with style of cooking and associated tastes that sustain and promote dependence on traditional and inefficient technologies Socio-economic factors related to affordability Current level of knowledge of the adverse consequences of using the traditional technology and of the benefits of the improved clean technology Absence of value chain and market delivery mechanisms for modern or innovative technology It is important to understand the socio-economic, cultural and technological characteristics of the current rural cooking energy regime before discussing the characteristics of transition and the methodology employed to achieve it. This could be understood in the context of ongoing transition experiments Surya & DST projects. IV. SURYA – CASE I In the strategic niche management terminology the the experiment is aimed at creating a technology niche. Kemp, Schot and Hoogma defined SNM as “The creation, development and controlled phase out of protected spaces for the development and use of promising technologies by means of experimentation, with the aim of 1) learning about the desirability of the new technology, 2) enhancing the further development and the rate of application of the new technology. The transition experiment Surya launched in 2009 introduced improved biomass cookstoves in a village. The experiments focus is to record indoor air pollution data at the household and village level with specific focus on Black Carbon and highlight the reduction in pollution by the introduction of forced draft stoves. The forced draft or gasification stoves use a fan at the bottom of the cookstove to improve the combustion efficiency. The fan can be powered by solar or grid electricity. Since 100% coverage was pre-reqisite for measuring reduction in pollution a protected space was created by dissemination of stoves to all the households. In terms of climate linkage of the experiment it has been listed as one of the top ten climate experiments in the world by Scientific American (Reference). To get a deeper insight into the nature of the experiment, the definition of explorative experiment by Hetland(1997) and Hoogma(2006: 2007) would be a good reference point. Explorative experiments are transition experiments that enable researchers to define problems, discover user preferences, explore possibilities for changing the innovation and learn how future experiments should be set up. They are ideal tools for using in the early stages of learning, when there are uncertainties about impact of an innovation. This is somewhat reflective of the Surya experiment as while the ultimate objective maybe to bring about a change in the dominant socio-technical regime of the village, the aim is also to understand the user preferences and attitudes so that the requisite change can be brought about in the deployment strategy and the technology to make it easily adaptable and acceptable to the households. In this sense the project is explorative in nature as it tries to acquire lessons for further improving the model of dissemination of cookstove. One of the major objectives of the experiment is also to demonstrate reduction in Black Carbon emissions and improvement in the health conditions in the households using improved biomass cookstoves. By monitoring and quantifying the changes in the Black Carbon emissions before and after the dissemination it aims to show the benefit of the new technology (forced draft stoves). In this regard it is also a demonstration experiment as it aims to show to the potential adopters how they would benefit from the new technology Summing up some of the important characteristics of exploratory and demonstration experiments that also apply to Surya include i) experiment is aimed at bridging the gap between variation and selection environment (evolutionary aspects) ii) experiment is protected from the dominant socio-technical regime and iii) experiment is characterized by high degree of uncertainty and limited structuring, particularly in the early phases Sustainability of the disseminated technology: The improved biomass cookstoves disseminated are energy efficient and also allow quicker cooking as a result of which there is less smoke and more fuel savings. Also the intensity of the black carbon released by the improved biomass cookstoves is much lower than that of the traditional mud stoves. The purpose of the experiment is also to understand the most ideal design of cook stove based on the existing cultural and social fabric of the community. A November 2009 study published in The Lancet, the British medical journal, estimated that a decade-long, all-out effort to equip about 90 percent of Indian households that burn biomass with clean-burning cook stoves by 2020 would reduce premature deaths by 17 percent annually, essentially saving 55.5 million years of human life. Thus it would lead to much lesser indoor air pollution preventing the women and children from inhaling harmful black carbon particles and suffering from respiratory problems. Also since women spend major time of the day gathering fuel for cooking, the technology aims at relieving them of this and instead utilizing their time and energy in a useful economic activity. Also the solar lanterns provided would allow work to go uninterrupted even when there is no electricity. It is expected to light up the lives of those households which have no access to electricity and live in complete darkness. It is expected that building on lessons from the present transition experiment, more transition experiments will be initiated in different parts of the country to ensure that the experiment can be gradually scaled up to 138,856,387 households currently using traditional biomass fuels Case Study 2 DST- Transition experiment (Description of the case and discussion of its results). The DST transition experiment implemented by TERI aims at development and dissemination of energy-efficient cookstoves and inducing readiness in the community to adopt them. The transition experiment is designed to transform the current unsustainable rural cooking energy regime into a sustainable one by scaling up the use of energy efficient cookstoves among the rural households. Like the previous transition experiment discussed the larger vision of the is also to establish wider adoption of affordable improved cooking technologies by developing commercially viable product. However, the two experiments differ with regard to the protection extended. While in Surya the cookstoves were disseminated for free, in the case of DST they were distributed first at a subsidized cost and subsequently on full cost through a local level entrepreneurial arrangement. The technological innovation offers the possibility of incremental improvement by close interaction with end users (co-construction of technology and markets along the process). This objective of the transition experiment is based on the fundamental principle of SNM of learning by doing Socio-economic and the technical regime Regimes are characterised by a high level of stability. Rules are similar and shared among many different locations. They are stabilized and embedded in a system of actors, social networks, technological artefacts and infrastructures. A regime that is stable will have an internal drive to remain stable, because of deep and embedded linkages between rules, technological artefacts and human actors. Most change will be incremental and occur slowly; there is internal resistance to change. Generally, a regime is stable because there is alignment between rules. For example, the cooking regime in India is stable because there is no economic cost to the use of biomass which is abundantly available source of fuel and also because there is at present a relatively higher cost for technologies like improved cooks stove. Alignment between these factors is a source of stability in the cooking regime. However, stability is also dynamic in nature (Geels, 2002a:98). For instance new laws by the government, negotiation of new standards by industry platforms, new preferences of users, need for new technologies to initiate new practices and policy reforms to enable environmental sustainability are various factors that can favor the interest in new technology and thus reduce stability of current regime. For domestic cooking purposes, traditionally firewood, crop residues and dried dung cakes are used as fuel in simple traditional cooking devices. Most of the homes uses firewood as the primary cooking fuel and a very few households uses dung cake as the primary fuel for cooking. Dung cake is basically used as the secondary fuel in most of the houses. Crop residue is used in the houses for lighting up the chulha. Though some of the houses have LPG stoves, the usage is infrequent and a single cylinder usually lasts for more than three months. Most of the houses use non-electric lamps on an average of 5 hrs a day which consumes an average of about 3 litres of kerosene per month. The average family size in the sampled houses was 6 members. The cooking fuel used in the study area was predominantly firewood, with varying proportion of dung cake and crop residue. The fuel mix depends on the cropping pattern, land and cattle ownership of the household. The variation is also seasonal in nature; in the post harvest season the share of crop residue in the fuel mix is strikingly high. For the households that used fire wood as fuel, the average fuel wood usage per household per day is around 6 kg. There were typically two major cooking sessions in a day- one in the morning and evening. However, each cooking session on an average lastsing for about 1.5 - 2.50 hours daily. The staple diets in the households consists of rice, vegetables, pulses and chapati (baked kneaded wheat roti). Cooking in the project villages is invariably the responsibility of women, they typically spend about 4 hours per day for cooking. The majority of families in the villages do not purchase fuel wood, but collect it from roadside or their own fields. In the villages of project area two types of cookstoves (chulhas) are widely available: fixed mud U shape and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) cook stove. Some households use Hara chulha for simmering milk and fodder cooking. The traditional chulha is made of clay, and due to its composition (of mud) it needs frequent maintenance. In 71% of households kitchen and living area is same while 29% of households have separate kitchen. The households with separate kitchen also have a chulha outside the kitchen. The consumption of fuels in traditional chulhas is very high and creates several health hazards. The community residing in project area is aware of the health implications of using traditional chulha. Hence, the regime is unstable and therefore market potential of efficient cook stove is high in project area. According to a village survey under the project, an average 52% and 47% of households showed willingness to buy efficient cook stoves at of cost of Rs 250-500 and Rs 500750 among all the village Evaluation of the stability of the dominant cooking energy regime with reference to Surya and DST Often the desires and the expectations of the actual beneficiaries are not kept in mind when designing new intiatives. Only by taking into account the concerns, aspirations and needs of the potential beneficiaries a project can succeed for which adoption of technolpogy is necessary (Sakubita 1990: 32). Often projects fail as the opinions or needs of the beneficiaries are not accounted for. Examples range from design shortcomings such as in Malawi where stoves were designed for use with a pot size and shape that nobody in the ‘target community’ owned, to more subtle cultural, environmental or resource oversights such as where stove have been designed for a fuel that is unavailable. (Ligomeka 1999: Pers. com). The evaluation of the baseline scenario by TERI acknowledges that for the success of the transition experiment it is vital to gain a detailed understanding of what the beneficiaries hope to get from the initiatives focussing on dissemination of improved cookstoves. Hara is a traditional earthen pot chulha, which is used for slow heating of milk. Factors that could motivate households to switch to improved cookstoves 100% % households 80% 60% 5 4 3 2 1 40% 20% 0% Increased fuel efficiency Affordable alternative technologies Cleaner Cooking Quicker Cooking Convenient to use Factors The baseline survey in Project Surya was designed strategically for ensuring an assessment of social, cultural, technological and economic characteristics of the present regime. Since the households due to the cultural lock in to the current cooking regime are unlikely to report the problems and issues in the technology they are currently using, it is more insightful to understand the factors that could motivate them to switch to an alternate improved technology. The strategy served two crucial purposes, firstly it gave an insight into the current challenges posed by the existing technology used by them and secondly it enabled understanding of the advantages the households desire in a new technology. Concequently, revealing the gaps in the technology disseminated and what further customizations could be made to make it more suitable to meet the needs of households. The survey revealed that majority of the 500 households (over 75%) ranked affordability as the most important factor that would attract them to a new technology. This indicates that economic factor is primary when households are making a decision about adoption of an alternative technology. The households ranked reduction in time taken for cooking & convenience to use as the second and third most important factors respectively for acquiring alternative technology. This indicates the excessive time and effort that goes into cooking using biomass in traditional cookstoves. Majority of the households ranked efficiency and cleaner cooking as the least important factors which indicates that households lack awareness about the benefits of the improved biomass cookstoves. Reasons for not using alternate technologies 120 100 Percieved inconvenience in using alternate technology Lack of knowledge about its availability 80 % Households Lack of availability everywhere 60 Satisfacton with traditional cookstove Relucatnce to use alternate technologies 40 Lack of knowledge on alternate technologies 20 0 1 2 3 4 Ranking of the reasons 5 6 Reasons for not using alternate technologies 120 100 Percieved inconvenience in using alternate technology Lack of knowledge about its availability 80 % Households Lack of availability everywhere 60 Satisfacton with traditional cookstove Relucatnce to use alternate technologies 40 Lack of knowledge on alternate technologies 20 0 1 2 3 4 Ranking of the reasons 5 6 However when questioned about the reasons for not switching to alternative technologies, majority of the households expressed satisfaction with the traditional cookstoves. Reluctance to try alternate technologies and lack of their easy availability also came across as significant factors hindering the adoption of improved cookstoves. The results demonstrate the strength of the current socio-technical regime. Reasons for using traditional mud stove 120 100 80 % Households Habituated to use Cooking convenience Local Tradition and culture No need for external advise No capital Investment 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 Preference ranking 5 6 When asked about the reasons for continued use of traditional mud stove majority of the households reported that they consider majority of the households(85%) ranked no capital investment as the primary reason for their continued use of traditional mud stoves. Local tradition and culture and habituation to use were ranked as the second and third most important reasons for continued use of traditional mud stoves by majority of the households. This could be understood better in the context of the nature of the dominant regime. Typically problems experienced in the dominant regime lead to structural instability in the regime that cannot be solved within the parameters set by that regime. This gives way to the emergence of alternative technologies. This regime instability inturn can create local opportunities for experiments and pilot projects like Surya, because niche actors develop expectations and visions linked to regime instability which a transition experiment like Surya and DST aims to achieve by bringing a shift in the current technology paradigm. Secondly when the instability increases the actors become interested in the niche. Therefore the potential for successful niche development is high when regime instability leads to high shred need for urgency of innovation, such as severe health problems or environmental degradation suffered in using traditional mud stoves. Therefore the cooking energy regime offers an opportunity for penetration of improved biomass cookstoves. However, not always there is a realization of this instability. Often despite the realization of the harmful effects of their current status there is no instability in the present regime as the users are not aware or have limited knowledge of the alternatives and so are happy with their present lifestyle and products they are using. The baseline survey in the Surya village reveals the dormant nature of the current instability in the regime as also indicated by the lack of awareness about the benefits of alternative cookstoves in the above results. The strength of the regime factors was also apparent in the trend observed in beneficiaries responses to the reasons they would like to continue with the traditional biomass based mud stoves they were using. It came out that majority of the households ranked satisfaction with the present technology (traditional biomass cookstove) as the most important reason for not exploring other technology options. While the negative effects of traditional biomass cookstoves are now a proven phenomenon the reported response from the household only reflects their unwillingness to any sort of change. They further ranked reluctance to alternative technology as the second most important reason for their aversion to new cooking technology. Regime instability is thus not a pre-condition; instead one of the main objectives of SNM is to nurture an innovation in stable regimes, contributing to initiation of process of regime change. Transitions in essence occur when the regime is sufficiently 'open', 'stable' or 'adaptive' to accept radical innovations; when there is sufficient pressure from the landscape for change; and when radical innovations have been developed in niches that can be used to exploit the opportunities for change. Sufficient institutional support, actor skills, knowledge and techniques must also be available in the existing regime to enable successful niche development. Learning processes SNM presents an approach based on improving the innovation process through learning and articulation, rather than based on defining the end-state and implementing incentives to reach that state. SNM is indeed closely related to the approach used in Constructive Technology Assessment (Raven, 2005). Learning is a central issue in the experimental introduction of technologies in society. Experiments can be designed to learn about different aspects, e.g. technological performance or economic feasibility. In the first transition experiment(Surya) discussed learning is the fundamental component as it involves collection of a wealth of pertinent research data for further improvement in research. To approach this, a small sensor on the roof of the home of the village leader will provide the first accurate measurements of how much carbon is actually reduced in the local setting. It is anticipated that the regional sensors and satellites will eventually help scientists learn more about more widespread pollution effects. In an ideal situation, experiments produce results, actors learn from the results and make adjustments to improve the technology or societal embedding. Learning should improve the alignment between the socio-technical configurations of an experiment. Surya aims to undertake comprehensive and rigorous scientific evaluation to date on the efficacy of switching to modern biomass-fueled cooking technologies on global warming, air pollution, and health and through this process learn about user preferences and attitudes so that the requisite change can be brought about in the deployment strategy and the technology to make it easily adaptable and acceptable to the households The DST project with its focus on customization of technologies and promotion of entrepreneurship is focusing on providing valuable insights on optimasition of cookstove technology taking into consideration the socio technical needs of local communities. In the process of arriving at current design a total of 10 stove models were tested first in the laboratory and then some selected models were tested at the rural household level to determine the technology and configuration most appropriate for the needs of households. The endeavour is also to systematically record data on robustness of improved cookstoves that have been provided. Based on the learning gathered in the first phase of the project wherein an existing branded model of forced draft cookstove was provided the feedback from the households facilitated development of a cheaper model with added features. Hoogma et al. (2002) distinguish five aspects that have been indicated belwo for actors to focus on when learning about an experimental introduction. Technical development and infrastructure: this includes learning about design specifications, required complementary technology and infrastructure. Both the DST and Surya experiments are focusing on creating local level infrastructure for decentralized entrepreneurshiprelated to improved cookstoves. Development of user context: this includes learning about user characteristics, their requirements and the meanings they attach to a new technology and the barriers to use they encounter. The baseline survey carried out prior to dissemination of stoves captured the user needs and perceptions. The post dissemination survey is currently being designed to assess the changes in perceptions and awaremeness amongst the user households. Societal and environmental impact: this entails learning about safety, energy and environmental aspects of a new technology. A close monitoring of the energy efficiency and environmental parameters specifically related to indoor and ambient air pollution are being closely examined in both the projects. Industrial development: this involves learning about the production and maintenance network needed to broaden dissemination. One of the initiatives as part of the experiment has been to identify a major manufacturer who has established the infrastructure related to largescale production of cookstoves. Government policy and regulatory framework: this involves learning about institutional structures and legislation, the government’s role in the introduction process, and possible incentives to be provided by public authorities to stimulate adoption. Both the DST and Surya project have been designed to demonstrate to the policy makers the potential of transition and the possible pathways to such transitions. For the purpose regular village based demonstration interactions are organized. One Another interesting dimension of looking at the learning processes at work in the present transition experiment involves analysin Hoogma’s (2000:58) concepts of first and second oder learning. First-order learning refers to learning about the effectiveness of a certain technology to achieve a specific goal and aims to verify pre-defined goals, to reach goals within a given set of norms and rules. On the other hand second-order learning refers to learning about underlying norms and assumptions and is about questioning these norms or changing the rules. The transition experiment presently bein discussed is operating at the level of higher learning order(second order learning) as it is not only aimed at verifying the technology by the way of demonstration of its beneifits but is also open to changing its assumption based on the resuls of the experiment V. The factors determing the process of niche formation and motivation for adoption of new technology: From the above two case studies it can be said that a complex web of social, economic, cultural, technical, organizational and individual factors determine the adoption of new technologies. Technical efficiency or the environment though important are rarely the exclusive factors determining whether or not a technology is widely adopted as evident from the results of the baseline scenario. For instance the economic status, more specifically the income level and cash status of the household are important factors influencing the decision to purchase a specific product at a specific price. Apart from affordability the technology must meet a variety of cultural requirements such as ease of cooking regional food and of combining cooking with childcare beyond simply efficient cooking. Broadly two important aspects of decision making in improved cooking technology adoption are : • Affordability and willingness of the economic decision maker to purchase the new cook stove (and processed fuel) at a specified price. • Willingness of technology users to adopt the new technology The first and most important determinant of adoption of a new technology is inherent motivation, which is connected with the perceived value of the new product or service. Cookstove programs are most successful when the cookstove is seen by prospective customers to provide concrete and observable benefits. For instance in urban areas, where fuelwood is often purchased, users are motivated by stoves that save money. On the other hand in rural areas where fuel is scarce or in refugee camps, people similarly see the value of fuel-saving stoves, which help reduce long or dangerous trips to collect wood. The value that outside observers usually see as paramount the improvement of health through elimination of indoor air pollution rarely ranks highly in the calculus of purchasers. Education about this benefit has for the most part been ineffective; even when informed about health benefits, users do not seem to value them highly enough to overcome preferences for traditional cooking methods. In most instances what have worked better are efforts that actually create and market new perceived value associated with the stove. For example: A stove could be seen, as contributing to a cleaner kitchen, adding new cooking functionality, or providing a status symbol associated with modernity. (Note that these other forms of value may hold more appeal to those who are already living above a subsistence level, pointing to the inherent challenge of dissemination to the very poor.) The commercial players who are most innovative in creating these kinds of observable value for their customers are therefore likely to be more successful. The expected future trajectory of transition experiments The development of the niche in the two transition experiments discussed above would be contingent upon the adoption of the disseminated cookstoves by the households and the success of the niche inturn would depend on its ability to attack the stability in the existing dominant socio-technical regime (traditional biomass cooking practice in rural areas). If the experiments are successful in the geographical areas where they are being implemented, through the process of niche branching (conducting series of transition experiments in different areas) the improved biomass cookstoves would become more widespread and receive increased support from users and producers. New standards, regulations, preferences and design heuristics might then emerge, with the potential to replace those of the existing regime. While this might provoke strong resistance from the dominant regime, at some point it will become weak enough to counter the pressure of the new new technology At this point the dominant technology would be abandoned and replaced with the niche technology, a development that would be accompanied by a reconfiguration of the social network and evolution of a new set of rules. Eventually, the new regime (a mixture of old and new rules) is embedded in (a mixture of) old and new technologies and supported by (a mixture of) old and new actors. The challenge that the two TERI experiments have thrown up is the need to further reduce the cost of the forced draft stoves from existing level of $ 45 (brought down under the project from $ 80) while adding to the improvement or features. The process is being taken forward by the DST experiment by development of a forced draft stove and inverter that can operate both the stove and a light point using solar or grid electricity. While the additional cost is only $ 10 dovetailing of lighting option makes the stove more attractive and relatively higher on value for money scale. The customized product is being rolled out through an entrepreneur who is investing in developing adecentralised value chain. According to Weber et al. (1999:20) and Hoogma et al. (2002:31) there are four patterns of niche formation that may emerge from the cycle of experimentation and not all niches lead to the transformation of the dominnat regime. In a number of cases the experiment at best leads to the formation of a technology or a market niche and stagnates beyond it. To understand this better it would be useful to look at the various patterns of niche formation. The first pattern, technological niche proliferation, results from a continuous process of new experiments. This pattern may include niche branching, i.e. jumps from one application domain to another, but also geographical jumps (Schot, 1998). At this level the niche though composed of a set of users which have accepted the technology, it has not gained by market share and therefore the technology is not able to compete with the dominant technology, and protection remains necessary. The second pattern, is characterised by the development of technological niches into one or more market niches, i.e. when the technology becomes economically sustainable in specific situations. However, the scale and scope are limited and only a restricted a number of users who switch to the new technology. There is no substantive effect at the level of the dominant regime. In the third pattern, regime transformation, the new technology develops through several stages of technological and market niches into the dominant technology, and transforms the regime. The new regime is usually composed of old and new elements, but the essential difference is that it is organised around a new set of technologies and practices (Hoogma, 2000:92). In the fourth pattern, technological or market niche extinction, the novel technology fails to attract further support and becomes (again) an R&D option. In the context of two TERI experiments it can be said that while the Surya project is still in the process of creation of a technological niche the DST project has moved beyond to technological niche proliferation through the setting up entrepreneurial ventures. The project is now moving towards regime transformation as it is expected that the efforts in both the experiments would work towards making the foced draft cookstove technology as the dominant technology. The Surya project with plan to extend to over 15000 households is aiming both at regime transformation and further on market niche extinction. VII. Dealing with barriers One of the most important barriers to the adoption of the cookstoves has been observed to be affordability. Affordability has come across as one of the most important drivers for the households in choosing one fuel over the other by several important studies including the above two case studies. It also has been one of the strongest reasons that has led to the dominance as a source of cooking energy fuel and mud stoves often comprising of nothing more than three stone fire as the most prevalent way of cooking in majority of the rural households in the history of rural India. In the baseline assessment of the households before the initiation of the transition experiment it was found that 85% of the households preferred using the traditional mud stoves as it doesn’t require any capital investment. However this perception ignores the fact that the inefficient use of fuel in the traditional mud stove infact leads to increased expenditure on fuel. Poor people in developing countries regularly spend up to a third or a quarter of their cash income on meeting their rudimentary daily energy needs Explaining the characteristics of an ideal cookstove for the villagers, Guru Swami, Professor University of Colorado stated that to be workable for billions of people who might live on as little as one dollar a day, a better cook stove has to have three main attributes: It has to reduce soot, it has to be long-lived, and it has to be cheap — ideally $10 or less. The good news is that inventors and engineers have come up with various versions of efficient cook stoves, some of them both simple to use and inexpensive. However affordability is certainly not the only factor. Researchers have found that it can be difficult to convince people to switch from traditional cooking methods to more advanced stoves, for a variety of reasons that range from uneasiness with unfamiliar or finicky technology, to upfront costs. Working with Yale development economist Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak and a local NGO, a team of researchers at Stanford University has found that many households in Bangladesh simply do not regard the high-efficiency cook stoves as great improvements. The group found that even when offered completely free stoves, more than 30 percent of households refused the offer. Some products can be sold in small volumes to bring them within the reach of the poor, but this strategy is not applicable to cook stoves. For most low-income consumers, stoves are simply not affordable with disposable income. Stoves can be made affordable to some with financing, especially in urban areas or anywhere where fuelwood is purchased. However, people at the absolute bottom of the pyramid—those living on less than $1 or $2 per day(BPL families) will not be able to afford a stove even with financing. In such cases, subsidies are necessary. The challenge is to ensure that such subsidies do not destroy nascent markets and are targeted as effectively as possible to the very poorest. Other cases for example, mosquito nets to prevent malaria subsidies have proved to be effective in encouraging widespread uptake of a product when motivation exists. On the other hand, various studies have shown that subsidized stoves turn into little more than scrap if target customers do not value the product to begin with. Another inter-related issue is that often the purchaser is not the user. In the typical patriarchal social structure (applicable across most regions in developing countries around the world), decision-makers are issue specific and are determined by the gender relations and division of labor in the household; leading to different decision-makers for different issues. For example, with regard to cooking technology, collection, use of firewood and cooking food are almost entirely responsibility of women while men strongly influence purchasing decisions, for example purchase of fuel. During the 1980s and 1990s several programs aiming at testing and disseminating energy saving technologies were implemented in Sudan. One of these technologies was improved cookstoves, which was intended to increase the efficiency of using energy from biomass sources. A study was carried out to examine the adoption rate and the factors affecting adoption of improved cookstoves in Khartoum State. The study was based on primary data collected through personal interviews with husbands and wives in 300 randomly selected households. Regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The results showed that the device's adoption rate was very low. The study further found that the improved cookstove's relative advantage, housewife's exposure to messages about improved cookstoves, educational level of the housewife and the average educational level of the female household's members had significant positive effect on the household3. The study also brought out the role of gender in the 3 Siddig El Tayeb Muneer and El Waseilah Mukhtar Mohamed Adoption of biomass improved cookstoves in a patriarchal society: an example from Sudan decision for the household to adopt or not adopt the technology. In the Sudanese patriarchal society all the household domestic tasks, particularly food preparation and related activities, are considered women's responsibilities and all the decisions related to them are taken by women. Therefore, these results could be understood as a reflection of the division of labor, gender relations and decision-making process in the Sudanese household. Since Northern India is also largely a patriarchal society the findings of the study has a lot of relevance for the present study. Benefits valued in new stove by percentage households Percieved benefits of new technology(dcision taker perspective) 120 100% 90% 100 80% 70% 80 60% Percentage Households Smart Looks Easier to handle Less fuel consumption Less time to cook Less Smoke 50% 40% 30% Smart Looks Easier to handle Less fuel Less time to cook Less smoke % Households 60 40 20% 10% 20 0% 1 2 3 Preferance ranking 4 5 0 1 2 3 Preference ranking 4 5 As can be seen from the above graphs while a significant percentage of men ranked less fuel use as the most desired feature in improved biomass cookstoves, very few women ranked it as an important factor in influencing their decision to switch to a new technology. This also suggests that men attach value to the expenditure on fuel consumption, women consider it as a secondary factor when compared to less smoke and quickness of cooking. This is because they are affected by the smoke the most A final barrier to adoption of a new technology by the poor can be the magnitude of the change entailed. Public health interventions such as vaccinations demonstrate that education plus subsidies can yield results at scale. However, the level of user engagement required in receiving a vaccination is fundamentally different from that needed to change one’s approach to cooking. Cooking touches on an entire lifestyle, which can include gathering wood (an activity with a strong social component) as well as cooking (an activity heavily influenced by tradition). Changes in lifestyle may bring significant benefits such as the ability to replace wood gathering with productive economic activities. In addition, products like improved cookstoves that are more complicated than traditional technologies may require training and ongoing correct use to reap their benefits. Once again, even extremely complicated products with significant associated lifestyle changes may be successfully adopted by the poor where significant inherent motivation exists. Motorcycles and electricity are examples among the somewhat higher income groups. Where such motivation is lacking, however, the spread of products requiring significant user engagement and change find it difficult to get a good headstart. What has made rural cookstove programs particularly difficult is that they face all three of the challenges described above together. They are expensive, imply a significant change in user habits, and, worst of all, are usually not highly valued by potential users at the offset. Therefore for a program to fully succeed in the cookstove space, it will need to be creative in addressing all three of these obstacles, besides dealing with long term challenge of developing cost-effective supply chains to remote rural areas. Most important of all are efforts to create compelling perceived value for consumers which goes beyond outsiders’ perceptions of the value that should already exist, such as for health. Because of the significance of the lifestyle change presented by a change in cooking methods, deep motivation on the part of consumers is required. Skilful design can be a key part of making the stoves as easy to use, robust, and highly valued as possible. While at the initial stage it is important to understand the preferences of the users and demonstrate how technology can provide them the desired benefits, at later stages the extent to which companies can profitably provide stoves to the poorest of the poor will then depend on how creatively they can apply tools of financing where possible and make subsidies available where necessary through partnerships with governments and NGOs. VIII. The role of actor expectations in shaping a transition experiment Actor expectations play a key role in early development of a technology as all investments have a certain opportunity cost and the investment made in these new technologies could have been instead used elsewhere on goods/services having some market value. These expectations determine the amount of money the actors are willing to invest in the new innovation. The result of the experiment inturn either confirms or discards these expectations. The expectations depending on the results of the experiment would either become more robust as larger number of relevant actors shares the same expectations. In the case of rural cooking energy regime often the users do not share the same expectations as the experimenters due to their habituation to using traditional mud stoves and ignorance and lack of awareness on the benefits of trying new technologies. However, if improved results are demonstrated to the households through the way of experiments like Surya and DST and consistency of the results of the experiments is maintained over a reasonable period of time these expectations can gradually become more stable leading to development of the niche. IX. Role played by protection (SURYA and DST) Protection is the main dimension which draws the boundary between niches and regimes. Hoogma (2000:83) believed that protection can be understood as a selective exposure to the selection environment. According to SNM literature the actors must strike a continuous balance in exercising and realeasing the protection in an experiment. While they must ensure sufficient protection so as to avoid the experiment from coming to a premature end due to competition from incumbent technologies, if the technology is not accepted and the niche is not developed the protection can be withdrawn and fresh experiments with different con. For instance tax, incentives, funding commitments by private companies. If the technology is not accepted the protection can be withdrawn the network can be utilized for conducting fresh experiments. Protection should also be withdrawn in case where the technology with good market prospects is ready to be exposed to the new market discipline as in such a case continued protection is likely to thwart or stall successful commercialization. In Surya and DST different levels of protection were in place. While in Surya initially the cookstoves weredisseminated for free, in DST the cookstoves were initially subsidized. It would be interesting to see how the strategies helped in development of niche by analyzing the niche dynamics. Since the traditional mud stoves have been used in the rural areas over generations, the households are suffering with several harmful impact of the traditional cookstove, since they are not aware of alternative technology and thus positive impact it can create in their lives, they don’t value he factors as much. Only once demonstration if done before them and they are made to experience the benefits of switching to alternative technology on their daily lives, they would understand the value of the new technology. This however, is tricky as the value the beneficiaries ascribe to the new technology may differ from that desired by the supplier of the technology. Also paying a price for an equipment which was initially available for free is fraught with numerous complexities which is beyond the scope of this paper The pattern of niche as a factor of level of stabilization and protection The patterns of the niche described in the above section could be understood using the dimensions of stabilization of the regime and the level of protection extended in the experiment for the development of the niche. These evolutionary and sociological dimension of niches when plotted in a matrix, gives a good insight into the factors that determine the development of niche and has important lessons for the transition experiments discussed. • Protection High • Forced draft Forced draft cookstoves at zero cookstoves capital cost in in the project at the project subsidized cost Low High •Stabilization Traditional mud Forced draft cookstove stoves at zero dissemination through capital cost market value chains Low Niche patterns in the cookstove dissemination process The horizontal axis represents the level of stabilisation in heuristics, regulations, preferences, etc; it represents the stability in rules at the niche level and to what extent this level provides structuration to local practices in experiments. The vertical axis represents the level of protection from rules in the regime The combination of these axes results in four different types of niches discussed in a previous section: • Niches in the upper left-hand corner are characterised by a high level of protection and low stabilisation (technological niches – Surya & DST). These niches are especially likely to occur during the early phases of experimental introduction of technologies. There are only a few experiments, there is limited interaction between the experiments, and limited exchange of information and experiences. Nevertheless, actors have high expectations, they protect the new technology by making ample resources available for testing and conceptual framework 48 experimentation, e.g. investment grants or regulatory exemptions; they protect the technology because it would otherwise be rejected by the market; • Niches in the lower right-hand corner are characterised by limited protection and a high level of stabilisation (regular market niches). This type of niche is especially likely to occur during the later phases of experimental introduction. At least some users benefit from the technology, e.g. because there is a distinct set of selection criteria, and protection is needed no longer or only in a limited form. Stability in the niche has increased, with more certainty about technological design and functionality; • The niche in the lower left-hand corner has limited protection and there is limited stability in the niche (dedicated market niches). Technological design and functionality have not stabilised, but there are special markets, in which users prefer the technology despite the absence of stability, e.g. because out of curiosity, because of local benefits, or because no other option is available; • The niche in the upper right-hand corner is characterised by a high level of protection and a high level of stabilisation (protected market niches). Despite much certainty about the technology and its functionality, there is still protection. X. Conclusion For scaling up the experiment over wider geographic boundaries the formation of a technology niche would be a pre-requisite, however it in itself wouldn’t be sufficient in itself as for a shift in the regime, the technology niche formed eventually has to transform into a market 4 niche whichwill have to scale up to wider geographical areas for a regime transformation to happen. 4 Small but profitable segment of a market suitable for focused attention by a marketer. Market niches do not exist by themselves, but are created by identifying needs or wants that are not being addressed by competitors, and by offering products that satisfy them. See also market segmentation. a loosely defined set of formal and informal rules for new technological practice, explored in societal experiments and protected by a relatively small network of industries, users, researchers, policy makers and other involved actors. Rferences: Raven R, Strategic Niche Management and Transition Experiments : From analytical tool to a competence kit for practitioners Johnson.F, Bioenergy and the Sustainability Transition: from Local Resource to Global Commodity, Climate and Energy Programme, Stockholm Environment Institute Astley, W.G., 1985. The two ecologies: population and community perspectives on organizational evoluation. Administrative Science Quarterly 30, 224–241. Raven. 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