VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS:
RESULTS OF STEADY STATE COUNT
(JANUARY-JULY 2007)
Michael Hitchcock
Tony Curson
Paola Parravicini
International Institute for Culture, Tourism and Development
London Metropolitan University
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 2
2. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 2
3. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................. 4
4. THE FINDINGS ................................................................................................................. 8
5. ANALYSIS OF FINDINGS ............................................................................................. 10
6. CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................... 16
7. THE FUTURE OF THE PROJECT ................................................................................. 16
VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The aim of the study conducted by London Metropolitan University on behalf of The Royal
Parks was to provide valid and reliable visitor numbers. Data was collected in the central
London parks between August 2006 and July 2007 and it was discovered that there had
been a considerable increase in visitors to all these parks as compared with the data
collected by the university in the mid 1990s. The most frequently visited park was Hyde
Park where there had been an increase from 4.7million in 1995 to 7.1 million in 2006-07.
Hyde Park had in fact overtaken St James’s Park, which was the most visited park in 1995
with 5.5 million visitors. In 2006-07 St James’s Park received 6.4 million arrivals to
become the second busiest park. The third most visited park was Green Park with 6.3
million in 2006-07, as compared with 3.4 million in 1995. Kensington Gardens had also
experienced a considerable rise from 2.9 million visitors per annum in 1995 to 4 million in
2006-07. The reasons why there has been such a marked increases since 1995 are explored
in the report.
The counts were undertaken manually using exit surveys, but to take into account the
growth in visitor numbers and the increased use of informal exits and entrances a Steady
State count was adopted from January onwards using a customised formula. In August 2007
the focus of the study turned to the remaining parks (Regent’s Park and Primrose Hill,
Greenwich Park, Bushy Park and Richmond Park) where a steady state count will be used
up until July 2008. Advice is also being provided by the university on the installation of
automated counters to provide a cost effective and sustainable solution for monitoring
visitor arrivals. Different options are being explored in different parks since many entrances
are devoid of power sources. The university is also examining ways of monitoring and
reducing the number of informal exits and entrances.
2. INTRODUCTION
The Royal Parks comprise: St James’s Park, The Green Park, Hyde Park, Kensington
Gardens and The Regent’s Park (with Primrose Hill) in Central London; Greenwich Park to
the east; and Richmond Park and Bushy Park to the west. Visitors use the Royal Parks for
many different reasons including energetic pursuits such as jogging, cycling, roller-blading,
horse riding and formal games, and less energetic ones such as attending exhibitions, quiet
relaxation, meeting friends and family, picnicking, dining in cafes and restaurants, and
watching wildlife. Increasingly, the parks are selected as a scenic and healthy route to work.
The Royal Parks make a major contribution to London’s cityscape and the capital’s
reputation and profile as a visitor destination and have an international reputation for
excellence in landscape design and management. In the Mayor’s London Plan they are
described as “cherished places” which should be given equal recognition as world-class
heritage sites alongside official World Heritage Sites. They are also valuable community
facilities for residents and workers and, as ‘free’ inclusive facilities have the potential to
contribute significantly to diversity objectives.
The Parks are managed by The Royal Parks, an executive agency of the Department for
Culture, Media and Sport. In 2006/2007 the Agency’s grant from Government was £25.8m
million and self-generated income was £9.3million. Collectively, the Royal Parks represent
one of the UK’s major historical, cultural, environmental and leisure resources and are
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VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
undoubtedly among the country’s leading visitor attractions. According to the studies that
were conducted by the University of North London (now London Metropolitan University)
in the 1990s they attracted millions of visitors each year (see Table 1).
Table 1 Estimated Total Visits to Park 1994-95
Park
Regent’s Park
Primrose Hill
St. James’s Park
The Green Park
Hyde Park
Kensington Gardens
Greenwich Park
Bushy Park
Richmond Park
Total
Millions of Visitors
1994
4.1
1.1
5.7
3.6
4.7
2.8
3.5
1.7
2.6
29.8
Millions of Visitors
1995
3.9
1.1
5.5
3.4
4.7
2.5
3.4
1.6
2.6
28.7
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VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
3. METHODOLOGY
The Visitor Count Study
The aim of the study was to provide valid and reliable visitor numbers to The Royal Parks.
The plan was to collect data in the central London parks between August 2006 and July
2007, and then to extend the counts to the remaining parks (Regent’s Park and Primrose
Hill, Greenwich Park, Bushy Park and Richmond Park) between August 2007 and July
2008. During the course of the Pilot Study (August – December 2006) a conventional
manual exit survey was undertaken and the following issues were noted:
 Many of the parks, especially the central London ones, have multiple exits and
entrances and are not entirely fenced in. Visitors are able to access them from numerous
directions, and it is not cost-effective to man them all for an exit survey.
 Very large numbers of people – sometimes including groups of a hundred or more –
were observed using informal entrances and exits in the four central parks. Not to take
these into account would lead to undercounting, but the logistics of covering all of them
and predicting where they would occur would add greatly to the cost of the study.
 Exit counts conventionally rely on 15-minute counts with researchers moving around to
different exits. The results are then grossed up to provide hourly figures. Early in the
Pilot Study it was noticed that the parks experience huge surges in visitation, sometimes
only lasting a few minutes. These surges coincide with the following: the arrival of
public transport; the arrival of coaches; the start of events (Changing of the Guard etc.);
changes in weather. Within a five-minute span as many a 2,000 visitors can pass a
single counting point. The introduction of parking restrictions around St James’s Park
has meant that coach parties currently access Buckingham Palace via Constitution Hill
or from Piccadilly, north of The Green Park. The groups disgorged in this fashion,
which can be very sizeable, often spill in and out of Green Park as they move towards
the palace. Such was the extent of these and other surges that they risked undermining
the 15-minute exit counts.
 Researchers standing and recording at exits are highly visible and this presented a
variety of problems. Since the major studies that were undertaken in the 1990s, security
concerns have increased. The security forces are especially vigilant around The Green
Park and St James’s Park. During the Pilot Study the police often questioned researchers
taking them away from their work.
 With large numbers of tourists around, many of whom wanting information, it becomes
almost impossible to stand still in a visible position without being asked questions. In
some important locations it became almost impossible to continue counting without
interruptions.
 A major thoroughfare separates Hyde Park and Kensington Gardens and the vehicles
that pass through contain many park visitors. Exit surveys on these roads required the
researcher to stand in especially visible locations and this proved to be especially
problematic.
 In most parks manual counts can be conducted on exit surveys, but with certain parks,
where the majority of visitors enter by vehicles, car park counts are more reliable. If this
method were to be applied in the case of parks such as Richmond it would have meant
counting parks with different approaches and this would have impacted on the
comparability of the data. Bushy Park and Richmond Park are, for example, very
different parks. It therefore became imperative to develop a methodology that could be
used in all parks.
4
VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
The Steady State Count
While the exit counts were being conducted a trial version of the steady state count was
used to build up a profile of the numbers of people actually in a given park at a key moment
in time (e.g. early afternoon). Each park was divided into segments and the counters walked
a previously arranged beat following a timed start to simply count everybody in each park.
This approach was later refined with the expert advice from London Metropolitan
University’s Statistics Operational Research and Mathematics Centre. The following
custom-made formula was designed specially for the Royal Parks project:
A= h N /t
A = the estimated total Arrivals
h = the effective hours open
N = the average Number counted and
t = the average time spent (time in park)
The Steady State count involves a series of poll counts to find the average number of people
in a given park on a weekday and weekend. Each person is counted once in each segment
by a researcher following a pre-arranged route to provide maximum visibility in a given
park segment. The counters commence counting in their respective segments at a precise
moment in time and they meet at the end of each count. The results of their counts are
recorded on a data sheet and then are added together to make a total for the park. Five
counts are generally used to work out each average.
The counting is supported by interviews in each of the parks being studied to find out the
average length of time the visitors use each park. The different categories of people passing
through the park – eg walkers, cyclists, joggers, skate boarders, etc – were interviewed to
increase the accuracy of the average. This is an especially important consideration for the
four central parks where people pursuing different activities spend differing lengths of time
in the parks, often with cyclists and joggers passing through rapidly and rollerbladers and
skate boarders staying for long periods of time. The interviews were also spread around
different locations in the park and data and observations about conditions were noted. The
various parks have different ‘time in park’ profiles and these averages are used as a
multiplier for the average of the counts.
The ‘time in park’ interviews were also used to calculate the average winter and summer
times. An effective time in park as opposed to the opening hours of the parks is used as a
multiplier to calculate the number of visitors on an average week or weekend day in a given
month. By using the number of week and weekend days in a given month as multipliers, the
average days can be used to calculate the monthly totals.
The counters also collected data on weather conditions, including temperature, and make
notes about any factors that might have an influence on the data. This additional data was
5
VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
recorded alongside the records of the Steady State Count totals and thus there is a field
record of the conditions in which the counts were conducted. The researchers also recorded
practical and social insights that might have some bearing on the data.
The total count data and the ‘time in park’ data were recorded on spreadsheets so that each
stage of the application of the formula could be monitored. This has led to the creation of a
template for presenting the findings of all future counts. Approval to proceed with the
Steady Sate Count came too late in January to work out weekend and weekday profiles and
thus the figures from this month do not have the same level of sophistication as the other
months, though it remains robust.
The counts were spread out to improve the quality of the averages by moving around the
start times for each month. On the weekday counts in April it was noted that visitor
movements were especially dynamic and thus two sets of calculations were used to
establish the weekday numbers: this is reflected in the spreadsheet entries. On one day in
January, inclement weather and fading light levels slowed the counts in Kensington
Gardens and only four counts could be undertaken before the park closed. This was the only
occasion where the average is based on less than five counts.
The steady state count was also applied in tandem with the Hyde Park counts to calculate
vehicular traffic passing through the count. In this case there are significant differences
between the ‘time in park’ figures for the different modes of transport . It is thus taking
longer to prepare a spreadsheet to represent this data, and it has not been included in this
report.
In consultation with the Royal Parks management it was agreed that there are certain
sensitive areas where counts would not be undertaken: The Mall, Princess Diana Memorial
Playground and the immediate environs of Kensington Palace. Since there is a reasonably
clear boundary between The Mall and St James’s Park proper the road was avoided.
Concerns about security also ruled out The Mall and the counters were made aware of the
need to be sensitive on the Downing Street and Horseguards side of the park.
The counts were also designed not to clash with major events in the parks and thus the
figures are conservative and under-represent the overall total. That said, there are large
numbers of small informal events in the parks that are arranged by visitors, possibly not in
consultation with the Royal Parks management. These visitors were included in the counts.
Smaller events that appear to have been arranged with the parks but did not appear with
accessible advanced publicity were also counted in. Visitors sitting around entertainments
(e.g. brass bands in bandstands) that might be considered to be part of the normal attractions
of a park were simply counted as ordinary visitors.
As with any research method there are advantages and disadvantages regarding the Steady
State Count and these may be summarised as follows:
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VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
Advantages






The counters are mobile and thus do not attract attention while working and there
were virtually no cases of interruptions to the counts from either security or the
general public.
It is more reliable than an exit survey when large numbers of informal entrances and
exits are in use.
It is a dynamic method that is well suited to capturing the rapid flows of visitors
within parks.
It is not as labour intensive as an exit count and is therefore more cost-effective.
The counters cover the whole park as opposed to just exits and are thus able to
collect a greater variety of observational data (e.g. visitor movements) that can be
used to help explain this study and to assist in framing other studies.
A greater variety of parks can be studied using the same method as compared with
the exit count.
Disadvantages



Visitors flow across the segments and thus there is some risk of double counting,
though the risk can be reduced by upping the speed of counts and by careful
mapping of segments.
When visitor numbers are moderate it is easy to count very accurately, but there is a
risk of under counting with regard to large volumes of visitors when it becomes hard
to distinguish one visitor from another.
It works less well in the early morning and late evening when light levels are low,
though the smaller number of visitors – with the exception of the commuters using
Green Park - offsets these concerns at these times.
Future Use of Steady State Count
The Steady State Count is more flexible than other manual counting methods since it is less
labour intensive and easier to manage. Should the Royal Parks eventually move to
automated counters, then the Steady State Count can easily be used to help calibrate and
confirm figures.
7
VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
4. THE FINDINGS
Monthly Figures
Between August and December 2006 two manual counting methods were used - exit
surveys and steady state counts – with an emphasis on the former because of its proven
reliability. Counts were recorded every five minutes on a data sheet and the length of counts
varied in accordance with the busyness of the exit. At quiet exits, counts varied between
fifteen and thirty minutes, but at very busy exits where huge surges were recorded, counts
lasted an hour and were repeated frequently. Weather details were also recorded, as well as
other relevant observations such as the use of unofficial exits. The locations chosen were
similar to and in many cases identical to those used in the studies of the 1990s.
The research team was aware at the outset that exit surveys would not be completely
representative because of the large number of exits, both formal and informal. As work
progressed the team became aware that use of unofficial exits was very much larger than
anticipated. It was to combat the possibility of undercounting that an early version of the
Steady State Count was adopted since it provided another view on the data. The research
team was also aware that it would be especially difficult to undertake exit counts in the
larger outer parks, especially Richmond Park, and were thus considering adopting a
counting approach like the Steady State count that could be used across all parks to provide
comparable data.
The overall results of the exit counts were transcribed on to data sheets for each park and
were analysed manually. The results below represent an estimate of the number of visitors.
The counts are not necessarily fully representative of the variety of weather conditions, all
gates, the seasonal influence, daily/hourly visitor flows, weekday and weekend use, events
and other factors influencing park use.
The term shoulder refers to off-peak times - early morning and evening which are outside
the core times when survey work has been undertaken. From previous experience, use of
the park at these times accounts for approximately 15% of the total. The term 'shoulder' is
borrowed from tourism, which refers to the periods either side of the main tourist season.
Table 2 Estimated Total Visits to Park in August, September and October, 2006
Park
Combined
Average Hourly
Count
Plus 15%
Shoulder x 90
Days
The Green Park
2279 x 8 = 18232
20967 x 90 =
First Quarterly
Figures (August,
September,
October 2006)
1,890,000
St James’s Park
2605 x 8 = 20840
23966 x 90 =
2,160,000
Hyde Park
Kensington
Gardens
2732 x 8 = 21856
681 x 8 = 5448
25134 x 90 =
6265 x 90 =
2,260,000
560,000
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VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
The current figures are based on the mid points between the November and January figures,
and it is proposed that Steady State Counts should be undertaken in the central parks in
December 2007 to provide completely accurate data.
Table 3 Estimated Visitor Figures for November and December 2006
Park
The Green Park
St James’s Park
Kensington Gardens
Hyde Park
Visitor Figures for
November 2006 (Exit
Survey and 15% Shoulder)
343,628
336,990
332,850
345,000
Estimated Figures for
December 2006 Based
on Mid Point Analysis
361,329
300,005
319,575
327,276
As had already been indicated in the exit surveys used in the Pilot Study, visitor
numbers were sharply up on the figures recorded during the mid 1990s. The fact that the
Steady State count also indicated similarly raised figures provides an important form of
crosschecking.
Table 4 Visitor Figures (Steady State Count January-July, 2007)
The Green Park
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
May 2007
June 2007
July 2007
Visitor Numbers
St James’s Park
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
May 2007
June 2007
July 2007
Visitor Numbers
Kensington Gardens
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
May 2007
June 2007
July 2007
Visitor Numbers
379,029
222,878
431,191
794,019
464,735
969 ,483
477,849
263,019
153,078
452,210
604,086
374,076
1,124,818
657,805
306,295
321,777
470,103
801,940
326,911
565,468
718,474
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VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
Hyde Park
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
May 2007
June 2007
July 2007
Visitor Numbers
309,551
251,652
448,836
1,129,456
512,906
614,959
904,660
Table 5. Annual Visitor Figures August 2006-July 2007
Park
First
Quarterly
Figures
Estimated
Figures for
December
Based on
Mid Point
Analysis
361,329
Result of
7 Months
Steady
State
Count
1,890,000
Visitor
Figures for
November
(Exit Survey
and 15%
Shoulder)
343,628
3,739,188
Annual
Figures
August
2006July
2007
6,304,145
The Green
Park
St James’s
Park
Kensington
Gardens
Hyde Park
2,160,000
336,990
300,005
3,629,095
6,426,090
560,000
332,850
319,575
3,510,871
4,219,296
2,260,000
345,000
327,276
4,172,025
7,104,301
Table 6. Comparison of Visitor Figures 1994, 1995 and 2006-2007
Comparison of Visitor Figures 1994,1995, 2006/2007
8
7.1
7
Millions
6
6.4
5.7
6.3
5.5
4.7
5
4.7
4.2
3.6
4
3.4
2.8
3
2.5
2
1
0
St. James’s Park
The Green Park
Hyde Park
Kensington Gardens
Parks
1994
1995
2006/2007
10
VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
5. ANALYSIS OF FINDINGS
The researchers and counters made careful notes of their observations and these provide
some clues as to why the figures are so high. The researchers also carefully followed the
weather forecasts and studied the data provided by Visit Britain and the Visit London. The
following observations help explain the rise in visitation documented by this study.
Growth in Tourism
As can be seen by the official web-site of Visit London, there is an expectation that parks
will be of interest to visitors to the capital since parks are featured as a major attraction in
the London area. It would appear that marketing is also having an impact on visitor level,
but it is not possible to analyse this on the basis of this study. In its mid year forecast for
visitor arrivals Visit Britain predicted a 4 per cent rise in arrivals the UK in 2007. Due to the
strength of the pound against the dollar visitor numbers to London were not expected to be
as great in 2007 as 2006, but nonetheless Visit London is predicting a 4.5% rise in visitors to
the capital, slightly above the national figure. Last year’s total visitor numbers were,
according to Visit London, 26.16 million and even with reduced growth in 2007, numbers
are expected to remain robust. Very large numbers of overseas visitors were seen by the
research team in parks such as Green Park and St James’s Park throughout the year and this
was supported by the ‘time in park’ interviews in which those questioned often supplied
their countries of origin without being asked.
Cool August Weather in 2006
The summer of 2006 was a record breaking summer, but August was not especially
noteworthy. The research team recorded temperatures of 16ºC and 18ºC and the weather
was often described as cool and overcast. The Met Office have described July 2006 as the
warmest month that year with a mean temperature of 19.7ºC, but this study commenced on
1st August, 2006 when temperatures took a plunge. The weather picked up in autumn and
the Met Office described it as the warmest ever with a mean temperature of 12.6ºC, and this
is reflected in the data for the parks, notably Hyde Park where large numbers of visitors
pursue weather dependent outdoor pursuits and games. Overall, The Observer has described
2007 as a record year with the second hottest winter, the hottest spring and the wettest
summer (02.09.07). The number of commuters passing through Hyde Park was down and
presumably the cooler weather had an impact of decisions to holiday abroad.
Warm Winter Weather
The Met Office described temperatures in January, February and March as being between
1.5º C and 3º C above average. April was an exceptionally warm month with average
temperatures of 5º C above the 1961-1990 average. The Central England Temperature
Record (CET), which dates back to 1659 and is the world’s oldest continual weather
dataset, tells us that this winter was the second warmest since 1989. The Met Office’s
records go back to 1914 and they show that the South of England experienced the warmest
winter on record with a mean temperature of 6.53º C. Temperatures held up in May and
June which were 1 º C above average, though the July mean temperatures were 2º C below
normal, representing a modest drop. According to the Met Office rainfall for July was also
above average. The data recorded during the park counts shows largely clement weather in
11
VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
January and February with top temperatures of 10º C-12º C not being uncommon. By
March the research team was recording top temperatures of 15º C and 16º C and by April
the top figures had risen to 18 º C and 20 º C, and even 25º C, though there were also
relatively cool periods when temperatures dipped to 9º C. Even during cooler periods
numbers in the central parks remained substantial. Visitor numbers are also related to
predictions of weather and people use existing weather conditions to judge whether or not a
visit to a park would be worthwhile. Thus a long period of clement weather makes potential
visitors more confident about making a visit.
Perceptions of Spring
It is possible that cultural factors such as the positive way that springtime is viewed may be
significant. Flowers, for example, start coming into bloom and this could well be an
important attraction. Given the widespread popularity of summer holidays, it is also
possible that spring has become the season in which leisure activities are pursued close to
home. London is also increasingly becoming a popular Easter holiday destination that
attracts both domestic and overseas visitors.
Parking Security Measures
The ban on parking coaches and other vehicles close to Buckingham Palace and Horse
Guards Parade appears to have had a marked impact on visitor flows across Green Park.
Coaches have to park to the north of Green Park on Piccadilly and tourists are thus
disgorged in large numbers to walk across the park to Buckingham Palace. Just before
Changing of the Guard, crowds, often several-hundred strong, can be seen passing quickly
through both Green Park and St James’s Park. Alternatively the coaches may park in
Grosvenor Place and visitors then walk down Constitution Hill to the palace. A very large
number of the latter often decide to pass over Constitution Hill into Green Park before
making their way down the southern border of the park. The parking restrictions may have
led to an increase is the arrival of large crowds by underground and visitors are using both
Green Park and Hyde Park Corner stations.
Use of the Underground and Buses
Green Park is one of the busier underground stations and is served by lines with some of the
most frequent services. The Victoria Line, which has 28.5 trains per hour at peak periods,
serves Green Park making it the third busiest line after the Central and Northern Lines. The
Piccadilly Line and the Jubilee Line with 24 peak hour trains per hour are equal fourth most
frequent services, and they also pass through Green Park. Many commuters alight at
Victoria Station and walk across Green Park either to the West End or to join the Piccadilly
Line. Piccadilly is also a busy bus route that is used by both tour buses and city buses, both
of which are used by numerous visitors to Green Park.
Outdoor Recreation
Changes in attitudes to health and recreation during the last decade have increased park
usage in a number of significant ways that make recording difficult, notably the huge surges
of cyclists in the Central London parks during the rush hours. In addition to the dog
walkers, sunbathers, picnickers, painters, rollerbladers, photographers, readers, joggers, and
12
VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
cyclists observed in the 1990s studies, there are now skateboarders, Frisbee players, circuit
exercisers, martial arts practitioners, dancers, baseball players and smokers of hubblebubble pipes, to name but a few. The increase in London’s population in the intervening
years, combined with increasing flat occupancy, could well account for part of the surge in
demand for outdoor recreation facilities. The introduction of the indoor smoking ban on 1st
July, 2007, also appears to have had a significant impact on visitor numbers, especially in
Green Park where office workers can be seen smoking at the Piccadilly end.
Major Scouting Anniversary
Lord Robert Baden Powell was born on 22 February 1857 and he founded the scouting
movement in 1907. 2007 is thus the centennial of scouting and the sesquicentennial of the
movement’s founder. It is perhaps not surprising that large numbers of the members of a
movement devoted to the outdoors should find their way into London’s parks. Their
appearance did not appear to be associated with specific events in the parks since the
scouting events were held to the east of London. Significant numbers of scouts from around
the world were spotted in St James’s Park in March and by the early summer their numbers
had risen sharply, though the 21st World Scout Jamboree did not begin until August. It is
attracting around 40,000 youngsters from 160 countries.
Impact of Events
Special events have not been included in this study since the organisers collect attendance
figures, but such events have an impact generally through raising awareness. In Hyde Park,
for example, music events have proven to be attractive to visitors in general and younger
visitors in particular. It seems likely that there is a link between the marketing of these
events and a general rise in visitor numbers.
Ongoing Interest in Diana, Princess of Wales
Some of the busiest places in the parks are those associated with Princess Diana, notably the
playground and the Diana Memorial Fountain. Members of the research team were often
asked to give directions to the Diana Memorial Fountain and what is significant is that
many visitors went first to Kensington Gardens before going on to the fountain. It would
appear that there is a very strong and widely held association between Diana, Hyde Park
and Kensington Gardens and it seems to be as applicable to UK residents as to overseas
visitors. This is something that would be worth following up with further research since it
may be one of the reasons why visitation in Hyde Park has risen so markedly.
Rising Population in London
London has gained about 190,000 people in the last two years alone and the projection of a
rise in population to 8.1 million is substantially higher than the 1996 Office for National
Statistics figures, used by the government, which envisaged a population of 7.6 million by
2016.1 London’s natural population increase – the excess of births over deaths – is about
40,000 a year and thus the remainder of the growth increase occurs as a result of people
moving into the capital. Each year London gains predominantly young people as students
1
Source: Mayor’s Office
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VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
and job seekers move in and it is predominantly older people who move out. London loses
around 50,000 inhabitants a year, but incomers surpass these numbers.
Tea and Lunch Breaks
The fine weather in winter brought large numbers of office, shop and hotel workers into the
central parks for brief periods for mid morning and afternoon coffee and for longer periods
at lunch-time. Because of their uniforms hotel employees, in particular, are visible but not
of undue prominence at the Piccadilly end of Green Park and when interviewed about the
‘time spent in park’ they usually responded with ‘under half an hour’. Even in less clement
weather these employees could be spotted in their usual corner of the park.
Impact of Migrants
An influx of migrants with a tradition of using public green spaces appears to have had an
impact on the figures. In Kensington Gardens and Hyde Park in particular parties of
picnickers can be observed at lunchtime on weekdays and throughout the weekend,
especially after mass on Sundays. Given the popularity of outdoor recreation in their
country of origin, it would be worth investigating whether recent migrants are having a
significant impact on visitor numbers in the Royal Parks.
Environmental Concerns
There has been an intensification of the debate in 2007 in the media about the influence of
holiday travel on unnecessary fuel use. What would be worth examining is whether or not
rising concerns about the need to reduce one’s carbon footprint had an impact on park use.
Comparison with Other Attractions
With the exception of the Blackpool Pleasure Beach, all the top ten attractions with
membership of the Association of Leading Visitor Attractions are located in London and
experienced an increase in visitors in 2006 (see Table 3). The robust levels of visitation in
the Royal Parks can thus be seen as part of a general rise in the use of leisure facilities
within the capital.
Table 7 Visits Made in 2006 to the Top Ten ALVA Members2
Name of
Attraction
Blackpool Pleasure
Beach
Tate Modern
British Museum
The National
Gallery
Natural History
Museum
2
Visitor Statistics
5,730,000
Charge (F =
Free/C=Charge)
F
Increase on
Previous Year
-4%
4,915,000
4,837,471
4,562,471
F
F
F
+21%
+7%
+9%
3,754,496
F
+22%
Source: Association of Leading Visitor Attractions web-site (http://www.alva.org.uk)
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VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
Name of
Attraction
Science Museum
Victoria and Albert
Museum
Tower of London
St Paul’s Cathedral
National Portrait
Gallery
Visitor Statistics
2,421,440
2,372,919
Charge (F =
Free/C=Charge)
F
F
Increase on
Previous Year
+19.8%
+24%
2,084,468
1,626,034
1,601,448
C
F/C
F
+7.9%
+17%
+4%
Table 8 Graph of Visitor Numbers to the Top Ten ALVA Attractions
Top Ten ALVA Attractions
Blackpool Pleasure Beach
Visitors in Million
Tate Modern
7,000,000
British Museum
6,000,000
The National Gallery
5,000,000
Natural History Museum
Science Museum
4,000,000
Victoria and Albert Museum
3,000,000
Tower of London
2,000,000
St Paul’s Cathedral
1,000,000
National Portrait Gallery
0
Attractions
Table 9 Graph of Visitor Numbers to Four Central Royal Parks
The Royal Parks
8,000,000
Visitors in Million
7,000,000
6,000,000
The Green Park
5,000,000
Hyde Park
4,000,000
Kensington Gardens
3,000,000
St. James’s Park
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1
The Royal Parks
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VISITORS TO THE ROYAL PARKS
6. CONCLUSIONS
Given the reasons outlined above, August 2006 to July 2007 has been a very unusual year,
not least because of the exceptionally warm winter weather in southern England. Fine
weather undoubtedly attracts visitors into the parks and it is possible that the cooler and
wetter weather in the summer will have an impact on the figures.
It is the conclusion that between 1st August 2006 and 31st July 2007, The Royal Parks were
amongst the UK’s leading visitor attractions. With 7,104,301 Hyde Park is the most visited,
possibly attributable in part to high profile events and the association with Princess Diana.
St James’s with 6,426,090 and Green Park with 6,304,145 are in second and third place.
Kensington Gardens with 4,219,296 occupying the eighth place after the National Gallery.
The figures for events are also not included in this study and it is possible that if they were
added Hyde Park’s overall figure would rise significantly. Vehicle data has also been
collected and the overall figure for Hyde Park is likely to rise even more once these figures
are factored in. Because the studies ran from August to July they are not, however, strictly
comparable with the annual records of the members of ALVA. According to the original
plan, data was to be collected in the central parks in the first year of the study and from the
remaining parks in the second year and the preliminary data so far indicates that these parks
also receive large numbers of visitors.
7. THE FUTURE OF THE PROJECT
The university is prepared to continue to collect data on the four outstanding parks until the
end of July 2008 using the Steady State Count and to make the current data set more robust
by counting in the four central parks in December. The data can be provided on a monthly
basis using the time in park figures that already exist. The formula could be further refined
as data from new winter and summer time in parks surveys are conducted. Sample sets of
data can also be squared to assess variance, which provides an additional check on the
figures. Variance is a value based on the aggregation of squared units and the university
would be happy to supply the formula and spreadsheets used for this assessment of the data.
Manual counts are inherently expensive and ultimately, The Royal Parks will require
figures based on automated counts. The experience gained from the project so far,
combined with our experience from the 1990s, will be very useful. Given the diversity of
the parks, it is suggested that one method of automated counting might not be suitable for
all parks. In some parks (e.g. The Green Park) it might be better to install turnstiles and to
use hedges to reduce the number of informal exits and entrances. Footfall data in St James’s
Park could be combined with steady state counts to work out the numbers arriving by
informal routes. An existing exit and entrance survey of St James’s Park could also be
referred to calibrate the footfall data and to ascertain the relative percentages of visitors
using the different routes. Estimates of the overall numbers of visitors could thus be
calculated using a limited number of pressure counters in the early stages. Given the
difficulty of providing power sources at Richmond Park it might be more cost effective to
conduct steady state counts for the time being from electric park vehicles. The university is
prepared to provide training to the staff in Richmond Park to enable them to carry out their
own steady state counts and to calculate the data. Detailed guidance on the various
possibilities for collecting data in each park will be included in the next report.
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