Electronic Supplementary Material for: What drives community dynamics? Crispin M. Mutshinda*, Robert B. O’Hara, and Ian P. Woiwod * Author for correspondence: crispin.mutshindamwanza@helsinki.fi Description of Data The scientific names (short-hand in brackets) and common names of the species involved in the study, species’ taxa, sampling periods as well as mean population densities and standard deviations are given in Table S1. It should be noted that one of the moths Mesapamea secalis is in fact a two species complex (secalis/didyma). These two species can only be separated on genitalia and were not recognized as separate when the sampling started so we have kept the taxa as one for consistency. All datasets are available to scientists upon request. We refer to Rothamsted Research at URL http://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/ for the moth data. The Hinkley fish and crustacean data can be obtained from Pisces Conservation Ltd at URL www.irchouse.demon.co.uk, the rodent data from Sevilleta Long Term Reseach Project at URL http://sevilleta.unm.edu/data/, and the bird data from Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study at URL www.bubbardbrook.org/ . 1 Scientific Name Common Name Agrostis exclamationis (Agrexl) Diarsia mendica (Diamen) Xestia xanthographa(Xesxan) Noctua pronuba(Nocpro) Orthosia gothica (Ortgot) Hoplodrina alsines(Hopals) Mesapamea secalis (Messec) Cosmia trapezina (Costrap) Agrochola macilenta(Agrimac) Conistra vacinii (Convac) Hypena proboscidalis(Hypprob) Hermina grisealis (Hergri) Limanda limanda (Limlim) Liparis liparis (Liplip) Merlangius merlangus (Merner) Platichthys flesus (Plafle) Pomatoschistus minutus (pommin) Solea solea (solsol) Sprattus sprattus (Spraspra) Trisopterus luscus (Trilus) Trisopterus minutes (Trimin) Liocarcinus holsatus (Liohol) Carcinus maenas (Carmae) Cancer pagarus (Canpag) Palaemon serratus (Palser) Pandalus montagui (Penmon) Crangon crangon (Cracra) Paciphaea sivado (pacsiv) Setophaga ruticilla (Setrut) Empidonax minimus (Empmin) Vireo olivaceus (Viroli) Dendroica caerulescens (Dencae) Seiurus aurocapillus (Seiaur) Dipodomys ordii(Dipord) Dipodomys spectabilis (Dipspe) Perognathus flavus(Perfla) Heart & Dart Ingrailed Clay Square-spot Rustic Large Yellow Underwing Hebrew Character The Uncertain Common Rustic The Dun-bar Yellow-line Quaker The Chestnut The Snout Small Fan-foot Dab Sea snail, Common Whiting Flounder Goby Sand Sole (Dover sole) Sprat Pout Poor cod Swimming Crab Shore Crab Edible crab Pawn Pink Shrimp Grey Shrimp Crust6 American redstart Least flycatcher Red-eyed vireo Black-throated blue warbler Ovenbird Ord’s Kangaroo rat Bannertail Kangaroo rat Silk pocket mouse Taxa (Sampling Period) Moths (1964-2003) Fish (1981-2001) Crustaceans (1981-2001) Birds (1969-1984) Rodents (1989-2003) Mean population Density (SD) 3.73 (0.93) 4.58 (0.63) 4.58 (0.55) 5.20 (0.62) 4.19 (0.39) 4.01 (0.85) 4.26 (0.85) 4.23 (0.81) 4.54 (0.85) 4.02 (0.75) 4.28 (0.92) 4.26 (1.02) 3.76 (1.13) 4.48 (0.81) 7.12 (0.81) 4.34 (0.46) 5.38 (0.84) 4.63 (0.63) 7.07 (0.94) 4.18 (1.07) 4.83 (1.13) 5.57 (1.50) 3.77 (1.01) 3.98 (1.39) 6.35 (1.07) 7.21 (0.98) 9.70 (0.41) 8.40 (0.84) 3.31 (0.35) 3.11(0.22) 3.11 (0.22) 2.35 (0.26) 2.37 (0.31) 2.22 (0.82) 2.72 (0.66) 1.81 (0.90) Table S1. Scientific names (short-hand in brackets), common names, taxa, sampling periods as well as mean population densities (on the natural logarithmic scale) and standard deviations for the populations involved. 2 8 0 2 4 6 Dipodomys ordii 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2000 2002 2000 2002 2 4 6 Dipodomys spectabilis 0 Density 8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 8 1990 0 2 4 6 Perognathus flavus 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year Figure S1. Error-bars (mean 1SD) of the posterior predictive distributions for the rodent data with the observed values (open circles) plotted on top. 3 Seiaur Environmental Forcing Density Dependence Species Dencae Viroli Empmin Setrut 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 R e l a t i v e C o n t r i b u t i o n to T e m p o r a l V a r i a t i o n Figure S2. Error bars (posterior mean 1SD) for the proportions of temporal variation attributable to environmental forcing (black diamonds) and to intra-specific interactions (grey boxes) in the dynamics of individual bird species. 4 Species Environmental Forcing Density Dependence Sampling Error Perfla Dipspe Dipord 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 R e l a t i v e C o n t r i b u t i o n to T e m p o r a l V a r i a t i o n Figure S3. Error bars (posterior mean 1SD) for the proportions of temporal variation attributable to environmental forcing (black diamonds), intraspecific interactions (grey boxes), and sampling error (black triangles) in the dynamics of individual rodent species. 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 Viroli 1 1 1 1 1 Empmin 1 1 1 1 1 1 Dencae 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Setrut 1 1 1 Seiaur -1 0 1 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 -1 1 0 1 Figure S4. Posterior densities of environmental correlations for the bird data; darker shading corresponds to a correlation with a posterior mean further from 0. 6 1 1 1 1 1 Dipspe 1 1 Dipord 1 1 1 Perfla -1 0 1 -1 0 1 -1 1 0 1 Figure S5. Posterior densities of environmental correlations for the rodent data; darker shading corresponds to a correlation with a posterior mean further from 0. 7