WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
PANEL OF EXPERTS ON POLAR OBSERVATIONS,
RESEARCH AND SERVICES
EC-PORS-3/Doc.4.3.1
Submitted by: Services TT
Date: 23.I.2012
Third session
SODANKYLÄ, FINLAND, 6-8 FEBRUARY 2012
AGENDA ITEM: 4.3
EC PORS SERVICES UPDATE
SUMMARY
ISSUES TO BE DISCUSSED:
EC PORS will be informed about the progress of the EC PORS Task Team on Services. A
description of the activities over the past year is presented as well as a draft of the White
Paper regarding user requirements for weather, water, and climate services in relation to the
concept of a Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS).
The summary provides the context for the following break-out sessions and open discussion.
DECISIONS/ACTIONS REQUIRED:
1.
The Panel is invited to review and advise on the activities of the TT and to provide
feedback to the TT on the outcome of activities.
2.
The Panel is invited to comment and further advice on how to proceed with the White
Paper as well as how to interact with the TT on research.
3.
The Panel is invited to review the Marine Arctic Users Survey included in the White paper
and provide feedback on it.
4.
The Panel is invited to give guidance on how to proceed in gathering further user
requirements especially for Antarctica and the “Third Pole.”
REFERENCES:
1.
Draft White Paper on Polar Services Requirements
EC-PORS-3/Doc.4.3.1, p. 2
EC PORS Services Update
4.3.1
Report on actions
4.3.1.1
As an outcome of the Second Session of EC PORS in Hobart, Australia, October
2010, the Services TT of EC PORS agreed to facilitate the conducting of a survey to capture the
service requirements of the marine community in the polar regions. To get the most out of the
survey the team made use of already existing projects with similar tasks of finding user
requirements.
4.3.1.2
A questionnaire was developed in support of the 7th Framework programme of
the EC project entitled, Sea Ice Downstream Services for Arctic and Antarctic Users and
Stakeholders (SIDARUS) to find user requirements for sea ice services. The EC PORS
Services TT was permitted to add needed sections to the questionnaire to assess the needs
and perspective of these users/customers on weather, water and climate products in the High
latitude regions. Within the GMES project ICEMAR the same questionnaire is used for finding
user requirements and the answers received is handled jointly by the projects.
4.3.1.3
In mid April 2011, the user questionnaire was distributed by the SIDARUS project
to selected groups of maritime users within the area of Maritime safety, Marine and coastal
environment as well as Climate and forecasting. A user requirement review document has been
published by the project and some result from it is presented in the Preliminary Summary of
results of the survey.
4.3.2
The Survey
4.3.2.1
The Services TT wanted to assess how marine customers in the Arctic used
weather and ocean information for their missions. The users were asked to consider the use of
weather and information for tactical purposes (hours up to two weeks), operational planning (30
days or on a seasonal to inter-annual basis) or for strategic planning, e.g. development of new
logistics and investment on a time frame of years to decades.
4.3.2.2
While the responses cover a fairly wide spectrum of interests (government,
oil/gas industry, fisheries, tourism, research, shipping), about a third of the responses (so far)
came from the oil/gas industry and half came from research organization. Respondents noted
use of sea ice information for tactical and operational use more than for strategic planning or
other uses.
4.3.2.3.
Respondents were most interested in new types of sea information products from
satellite and models and electronic delivery of sea ice information such as electronic navigation
charts (as opposed to information on long-term changes to sea ice for strategic planning). They
favored also the most detailed, high-resolution options when presented choices about how
information regarding ice concentration, ice edge, ice type, and ice thickness.
4.3.2.4
Respondents favored the most detailed time and spatial options for sea ice,
ocean, and weather information - i.e., information updated "as often as possible."
4.3.2.5
For tactical and operational ice information, most responses fell between 2-3
days and 3-months (seasonal). Nearly half of the respondents (44%) said they did not have a
EC-PORS-3/Doc.4.3.1, p. 3
requirement for long-term predictions, "the effect of climate change on sea ice." When asked
what time period of historical information would be useful, more than half (53%) said "more than
one year."
4.3.2.6
In terms of product format and delivery, most respondents chose a simple image
format (JPG, PNG, PDG) and most chose either website or email as the delivery source. Only
25% of the respondents chose a constrained communications method (Iridium or text only
email), 25% could accept emails with small graphics (<1Mb), and 50% have unlimited
communications access.
4.3.2.7
When grading the "impact" of weather and ocean information on their business,
nearly all rated tactical use (i.e., hours up to two weeks) as "imperative" and operational
planning (i.e., 30-day, seasonal to inter-annual) as "useful." Respondents were most interested
in short-term weather and ocean forecast conditions in the hours to days (2-3 days) range,
followed by the 3-month to seasonal range. Nearly all placed importance ("essential" or
"useful") on having an estimate of forecast uncertainty.
4.3.2.8 The user requirements from both the southern polar region and the “Third Pole” are
not represented in this White paper. The TT recommends that at least one EC PORS member
from each of these regions be identified to better articulate their needs.
.
4.3.3. GAP Analyses
4.3.3.1
The White Paper gives suggestions for improvements enabling better services
especially in the arctic region. A summary of identified gaps are presented below.
4.3.3.2 The reliability of forecasts of extreme weather and water events must be improved by
reducing uncertainty and extending lead time. Sea ice services also need considerable
improvements, both in terms of ice edge and iceberg mapping, analysis and tracking, as well as
predictive services in daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual scales for decision
support. In general, predictive services in the high latitudes are not of equivalent accuracy,
resolution and reliability as similar products in mid-latitude regions. A primary reason is the
relative coarseness of the observational fields to support meteorological and oceanographic
modeling;
4.3.3.3
Improved forecasts will require regular observation of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean,
sea ice; improved coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean models and process-level understanding; and
development of services and information products for stakeholders. New in-situ, airborne, and
satellite observing technologies are needed to fill gaps in meteorological and oceanographic
datasets, with the intent of improving both local and global weather forecasts.
4.3.3.4
Improving daily to weekly sea ice models and forecasts and new seasonal
prediction services will fill a critical gap in marine weather and climate services that will benefit
community activities, support the managements of protected marine resources and improve
safe operation and navigation through these waters as marine transportation and industry use
expands.
4.3.3.5
Forecast improvements can be made by enhancing and integrating different types
of observations of the atmosphere, sea ice and ocean, one important being satellite based
information through which large areas with sea ice can be covered. In the future, near real time
EC-PORS-3/Doc.4.3.1, p. 4
satellite products may include information about various aspects of se-ice including parameters
such as ice concentration, edge, ice type, drift deformation etc.
4.3.3.6
Seasonal predictions, particularly the period of open water that defines an extended
operations and shipping season, are increasingly in demand. Special studies using climate and
earth system models need to target Arctic processes. Global models are necessary but not
sufficient for regional applications; therefore downscaling methods are a part of the required
methodology.
4.3.4
Next Steps
4.3.4.1
The development of a GIPPS will best be served by taking advantage of existing
mechanisms that have the same mission envisioned by the EC PORS members, such as
SIDARUS and ICEMAR. Currently, the only European meteorological service participating in
the SIDARUS project is the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
4.3.4.2 Given the present SIDARUS effort to develop and implement a set of sea-ice
downstream services in the area of climate research, marine safety, and environmental
monitoring, many of which will likely be delivered (disseminated) by the meteorological services
of the Arctic countries, the Services Task Team proposes that a logical next step would be for
the EC PORS members representing the meteorological and/or ice services of Iceland, Finland,
Sweden, Denmark, Russia, the U.S., and Canada to become partners of or Subject Matter
Experts (SMEs) to this 7th Framework Programme project to ensure a coordinated, Arctic-wide
integration of products and data that could demonstrate the viability of a GIPPS.
4.3.4.3
Furthermore, the SIDARUS project is not just focused on the Arctic -- it also
intends to support the needs within the Antarctic region. Thus, EC PORS members from the
southern polar region could also serve as partners or subject matter experts to support the
SIDARUS project.
4.3.4.4
Another European project that presents a good opportunity for the EC PORS
membership is with the GMES ICEMAR project.
4.3.4.5
User requirements from both the southern polar region and the “Third Pole” are
needed to complete this White Paper. The Services Task Team recommends that at least one
EC PORS member from each of these regions be identified to help better articulate their needs.