IV. Complexity theory and mobile market design

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Mobile Market Design for Development
Mira Slavova

Abstract— This paper discusses current trends in the ICT4D
field towards mobile technology interventions and market
interventions. We define a mobile market concept and discuss its
design with regards to the developing country context. We
maintain that dynamic mobile marketplaces present significant
opportunities for increasing the number of transactions,
improving the access to up-to-date information regarding supply
and demand, and facilitating price adjustments with a view
towards market clearing. In order to realize these opportunities
market engineers in academia and industry need to develop a
design framework which takes into account the intertwined
structures of market microstructure and market mechanisms.
Furthermore, the design of technological delivery mechanisms
needs to be taken into account. A holistic design approach based
on complexity theory is discussed.
Index Terms— mobile commerce, market design, ICTs for
development
I. INTRODUCTION
w
E set out by noting two recent trends in the ICTD field.
The first involves the spreading access to mobile
telephony. Across the developed and the developing world
this trend has awaken governments, inter-governmental
organizations, non-profits , social entrepreneurs and NGOs to
the opportunities for socio-economic development offered by
mobile technology. It has led to a turn in focus away from
established, fixed, wired ICTs and towards emerging, mobile,
and wireless ones.
This shift is particularly relevant to the use of ICTs for the
facilitation of market transactions. Mobile phones have
become constant companions of traders throughout the world.
Mainly through their voice capabilities, mobile phones are
used to facilitate the arrangement of transport, the exchanges
of information about the quantity and quality of current stock
levels, etc[1-6].
The second trend in the ICTD field refers to the prominence
of ICT initiatives promoting improvements in the functioning
of markets [7]. Such improvements are often understood as
sustainable due to subsequent increases in the volume,
frequency or quality of market transactions. Aspiring to
sustainability many recent projects have been targeted at the
introduction of ICTs as an alternative channel for business
transactions in developing countries. Among other ICT
applications, projects have focused on the ICT-enabled
dissemination of market price information12, the ICT-enabled
monitoring and recording of current stock (especially with
regards to food security)3, the collection of online directories
of buyers and sellers4, the distribution of information about the
latest job vacancies via text messaging5 and the online
auctioning of fish6.
Even though there have been multiple ICTD projects aimed
at improving the functioning of markets, to the best of our
knowledge there have not yet been attempts at fully
automating market transactions. Regardless, competitive
enterprises with popular household names such as eBay have
expanded beyond markets in advanced industrialized countries
(Philippines, Vietnam) and have been challenged by local
start-ups such as the Chinese Taobao. Therefore, we believe
that the movement towards dynamic market transactions,
including the automation of access to market information, the
automation of market negotiations and contracting, and the
implementation of remote payments is here to stay. Even
though full automation, in advanced industrial countries as
well as in developing ones, is probably still a long way in the
future, we believe that the idea is relevant to the process of
designing ICT interventions with business focus.
II. THE MOBILE MARKET CONCEPT
In this section we define the concept of mobile markets with
regards to the developing world, and consider its complexity.
Traditional markets are associated with a coincidence of
buyers’ and sellers’ location in time, as well as the presence of
their goods for exchange and the medium of exchange. In the
presence of all these constituents, market participants are able
to bargain and determine terms of trade. Due to the concurrent
presence of the buyers, the sellers, the objects of trade and the
medium of exchange, asymmetries of information are an
uncommon occurrence. Issues of trust do not emerge in as
much as buyers are capable of verifying the quality of the
exchanged goods, and sellers are able to detect counterfeiting .
By contrast, remote markets do not require a coincidence of
1
Manobi, http://www.manobi.net/worldwide/
trade at hand, http://www.intracen.org/trade-at-hand/
3 LINKS, http://lmistz.net/Pages/Public/Home.aspx
4 Tradenet, http://www.tradenet.biz
5 Mobile for Good, http://uk.oneworld.net/section/mobile
6 East African Fish Auctions, http://www.eastafa.com/index.asp
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Manuscript received September 22, 2008.
Mira Slavova is with the Leeds University Business School. (e-mail:
b.slavova@lubs.leeds.ac.uk).
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the location of the buyers and sellers, nor a coincidence in
time.
Internet technology has served much for the
development of these markets. Technology mediated remote
markets are usually subsumed in the term electronic commerce
[8-10]. Even though remote markets do not require a
coincidence of the participants’ location, they still require a
commitment from the participants to a fixed location.
Typically this is a location where participants can access
communication technologies such as the Internet and are able
to observe up-to-date market developments. An accepted
understanding of electronic commerce defines it as a subset of
electronic business [8]:
E-Business is the integration of systems, processes,
organizations, value chains, and entire markets using Internetbased and related technologies and concepts. E-Commerce is
merely a part of e-business and is limited essentially to marketing
and sales processes […]
Electronic commerce as a subset of electronic business
transactions could be strictly focused on the exchange of
digitally transferrable information products and services and
digitally transferrable payment information and verification
[11], or it could be understood in a broader sense.
By analogy to electronic commerce, mobile commerce can
be defined more strictly, or more broadly. A strict definition
can be as follows [8] :
[…] we define m-business as a collection of mobile
technologies and applications used to support processes, value
chains and entire markets using wireless technology (see also
[12]). M-Commerce is a subset of m-business and “...denotes the
transaction oriented part of mobile business towards the end
customer” ([12]). M-Commerce is therefore “...any transaction
with a monetary value that is conducted via a mobile
telecommunication network” ([13]).
For our purposes we will use a more general understanding
of mobile markets, in alignment with [8]’s definition of
mobile commerce:
Mobile Commerce is any transaction, involving the transfer of
ownership or rights to use goods and services, which is initiated
and/or completed by using mobile access to computer-mediated
networks with the help of an electronic device.
Other definitions of mobile commerce include:
“M-commerce is the use of mobile (hand-held) devices to
communicate and conduct transactions through public and private
networks […].”[14]
“M-Commerce is […] the buying and selling of goods and
services, using wireless hand-held devices such as mobile
telephones or personal data assistants (PDAs).” [15]
We will understand as mobile markets ICT services which
enable mobile access to up-to-date information about at least
one of the following:
 Sellers’ level of stock availability, and/or buyers’ level of
demand for stock); market-wide information about
products’ supply, and demand.
 Dynamic negotiations of the terms of trade between
traders from both sides of the market. These negotiations
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could be fully automated and follow a specified format, or
they could follow a free style of bargaining.
 Exchange of goods and payments. Payment details could
be exchanged through ICT services, or otherwise. Goods
could be digital and thereby delivered digitally; or they
could be products dispatched in-person or through a
trusted delivery service.
 Information about the final terms of trade for realized
transactions.
In our understanding mobile markets are not exclusively
defined by the use of mobile networks, handheld devices, or
other communication technologies. Mobile markets are not
limited to the exchange of digitally deliverable goods, or
payments. [8] specify ubiquity, immediacy, localization,
instant connectivity, pro-active functionality and the simple
authentication procedure as particularly advantageous features
of mobile commerce. With regards to markets in developing
countries we consider the following as particularly
advantageous:
 Ubiquity: Technologically assured, geographically
independent access to mobile market transactions or
negotiations.
The ubiquity of mobile markets is
particularly relevant to the benefit of traders in developing
countries because trading commitments there tend to be
taken up informally and in addition to other commitments.
Thereby, the ubiquity of a mobile marketplace would
allow individuals to attend to their other activities without
compromising their market presence.
 Immediacy: Constant access to up-to-date information,
particularly time-critical information about changes in
market supply or demand, or about dynamic changes
during price negotiations which demand quick response.
Immediacy is particularly relevant to markets in
developing countries because the delivery system and
payment processing tend to be particularly unreliable.
Due to the immediacy of communication market
participants can make alternative payment or delivery
arrangements , as and when the need arises.
 Localisation: Mobile technologies allow for positioning,
thereby enabling sellers to offer goods and services to
buyers specific to their current location. This quality of
mobile technology provides an opportunity for the
automation of established trading practices in many
countries such as roadside trading.
 Pro-active functionality:
This feature ensures that
relevant information is provided to users at the “right”
place, at the “right” time. Users do not have to fear
missing some time-critical location-specific information
or getting it too late. This quality of the technology
provides an opportunity of automating time-dependent
trading practices. For example, such are the practices of
holding periodic markets in remote areas, or timedependent markets for perishables such as fisheries.
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Mobile commerce is particularly relevant for the facilitation
of market transactions in developing countries because it
provides access to context-specific, time-critical information,
facilitates spontaneous decisions and needs, and increases the
efficiency of already established routines [8].
Immediacy and ubiquity make mobile commerce
particularly relevant when seeking improvements in the
functioning of markets in developing countries. These features
of mobile commerce render possible dynamic price-setting
using mobile services.
Through their influence on
microenterprise ICTs in general and mobile phones in
particular, have a significant effect on livelihood outcomes [46].
III. COMPONENTS OF THE DESIGN PROBLEM
The design of mobile markets can be viewed as
encompassing the design of buyer-seller networks, the design
of market mechanisms and the design of technological artifacts
used within the mobile practice of exchange. In [16] we
argued that the design of functioning technology-based
marketplaces should integrate the areas of market
microstructure, market mechanisms and technology. This
view is necessitated by the far-reaching consequences of the
introduction of mobile technologies in existing markets.
Mobile technologies affect social networking processes,
change existing informal norms and the level of trust and
predictability in the marketplace. They change the contractual
completeness of the market environment; and impact the
quality and quantity of information signals market participants
are able to receive and respond, thereby affecting the dynamics
of market behavior and adjustments towards clearance.
Mobile technology also challenges established information
practices and creates new ones. It affects socialization within
the context of market exchange.
A. Mechanism Design
The design of the market mechanism is a readily identifiable
component of the mobile market design problem. It consists
of designing game rules which induce rational, self-interested
participants to behave according to the rules and contribute
towards the achievement of a particular optimal outcome.
Market designers are concerned with invoking behavior
conducive to optimalities such as individual rationality,
truthful reporting (aka incentive compatibility), allocation of
the goods to those who value then the most (aka allocative
efficiency) and revenue maximization [17].
It is the responsibility of market designers to choose an
optimality guiding the design of the rules governing the market
mechanism. Revenue maximization and allocative efficiency
are two commonly sought optimalities. Aiming at their
achievement mechanism designers specify rules regarding the
dynamic (or otherwise) process for determining the allocation
and terms of trade agreeable to the participants. These rules
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include requirements regarding the negotiation method through
which the final allocation and pricing of the goods is achieved.
They specify variables regarding auction formats (increasing
or decreasing), the availability of dynamic information about
prices changes (closed or open mechanism), deadlines, price
change increments etc.
The design of appropriate and well-functioning mobile
market mechanisms in the challenging environment of less
developed countries necessitates a broader, more
interdisciplinary view of markets compared to the mechanism
design approach typical of theoretical Economics and
Computer Science. The problem of mobile market design in
the context of developing countries is complicated by at least
two factors which are not addressed at a level of detail relevant
to practitioners by the traditional field of economic theory and
mechanism design.
B. Market Microstructure Design
We use [18]’s understanding of market microstructure:
In finance, the study of intermediation and the institutions of
exchange is called market microstructure. I apply the term market
microstructure to markets in general.
The first problem which points to the specificity of markets
in developing countries is the lack of stable (formal or
informal) institutions which could assure compliance to market
and non-market rules and assist participants with the formation
of truthful expectations. Formal institutions in developing
countries tend to be weak and fragile [19, 20], therefore it is
problematic to treat markets in isolation from them. The
balance in developing countries is shifted towards informal
institutions which are by definition fluid and evolving. As
such they remain malleable and highly susceptible to the
introduction of information technologies as means for
interpersonal communication [21].
In addition to carefully considering the rules of the market
mechanism we propose that governments, enthusiasts and
charities interested in implementing market-oriented ICT
interventions should consider the market microstructure [18].
The physical presence of intermediaries or the presence of
technology substituting their functions could have a
considerable impact on the trust and contractual completeness
surrounding market transactions.
Contractual completeness, or trust in the opposite side of the
market is needed in the context of market transactions because
they involve mutual interdependence between the two
contractual parties. The ability of buyers and sellers to
exchange information via mobiles or other ICTs has the
potential to and does benefit market participants. But
improvements in the operation of the market are much more
dependent on the quality of this information. Its credibility,
reliability, and the commitment it implies are crucial for
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successful transactions.
There are many alternatives for the achievement of
contractual completeness and trust between buyers and sellers
in mobile markets.
Formal institutions and evolving
interpersonal norms of reciprocity can complete the
contractual environment. Alternatively, the technological
mechanism could be designed so that it takes into account the
.preferences of buyers and seller over who to transact with.
These preferences could be elicited from the individuals and
incorporated in the mobile technology protocols so that
information about unacceptable partners is not pushed to
market participants.
C. Mobile Interaction Design
The second factor which remains unaccounted for in
economic theory is the impact of information technology on
market behavior. Information technology is capable not only
of transferring information and automating interactions among
market participants, but it is also capable of distorting the
messages participants seek to convey. Issues such as the
freedom yielded to users by technological implementations to
clearly express their own preferences are capable of seriously
distorting market outcomes. Similarly, the technological
literacy of users could affect their ability to express their
preferences [3]. In countries with multiple local languages and
cultures these could affect the way market information is
understood and interpreted.
They could also impact
individuals’ responses to incoming up-to-date market
information. Therefore, approaches such as communication
design, information design, user interface design and user
centered design are particularly relevant to the design of
interactions between market participants and their handheld
device [22]. Such approaches could facilitate information
exchange and make it compatible with existing market
practices and information practices.
Due to the complicating role of the market microstructure
and the mobile technology, the design space for mobile
marketplaces in developing country settings needs to be
expanded to include the set of possible market microstructures
and technologies. This extended design problem is difficult to
state using the tools of mechanism design and economic
theory. It is more difficult to solve and probably impossible to
solve at a level of specificity useful to practitioners.
Therefore, we propose complexity theory as a holistic, mobile
market design method which takes into account not only
economic theory but also the role of institutions, and the
interaction between human agents and mobile technology.
IV. COMPLEXITY THEORY AND MOBILE MARKET DESIGN
Having described the problem of designing mobile
marketplaces we turn towards a proposed complexity theory
approach for the solution of this problem. Complexity theory
has been hailed as an analytic framework throughout
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management studies, and recently been acknowledged as a
framework for the design of information systems [23-26].
[26] presents an introduction to complexity science
technology and related ideas, aimed at information systems
researchers. Complexity theory provides a framework for the
analysis of emergent adaptive systems. The language and
metaphor of complexity theory have been applied extensively
to organizational behavior [27, 28].
We focus on a complexity theory approach broadly
following Kauffman’s well-established NK-model [29-31].
[32] defines the concepts of genotype (or design space) and
epistasis for the purposes of complexity theory. In order to
introduce a complexity theory approach to the problem of the
integrated design of mobile marketplaces we propose that the
genotype consists of three significant elements. Namely, the
genotype is the collection of the market microstructure, the
market mechanism and the mobile technology used for
accessing the marketplace information. Each element in the
design space is assigned a fitness value. The main qualitative
research question with regards to the genotype concerns the
full and complete description of all the possible values of the
genotype elements (alleles). N-value is the number of
genotype elements descriptive of the complex system.
Interdependencies among the functioning elements of a
complex system i.e. the realized values of different alleles
(phenotype) are known as epistatic relations. With regards to
mobile markets the phenotype consists of the implemented
arrangements concerning market microstructure, market
mechanisms and mobile technologies. Epistatic relations have
the capacity of reducing or increasing the overall fitness of the
complex system. The ensemble of epistatic relations among
the elements of a complex technological system is the
technology’s architecture.
The number of possible
architectures of a system increases exponentially with the
number N of elements that describe it.7 K-value is the number
of elements that each element is affected by. Systems without
epistasis have minimum complexity K = 0. Systems of max
complexity have K = N−1. Intermediate architectures have 0 <
K < N−1. NK systems constitute only a subset of complex
systems as they are subject to the restriction that all elements
are affected by an equal number of other elements.8 In the NK
model the fitness value of each realized complex system is
computed as the mean of the fitness values of its constitutive
elements. The design exercise consists of identifying the
genotype specification which gives rise to the fitness-optimal
complex system. The search involves scoping the design
space and its associated fitness landscape. The presence of
local fitness optima i.e. the ruggedness of the fitness landscape
7 For a mobile market with N = 3 the number of possible architectures,
exp(3) is approximately 20.
8 This implies that the mobile microstructure is affected by the mechanism
and the technology interaction, the mechanism is affected by the
microstructure and the technology interaction; and the technology interaction
is affected by the microstructure and the mechanism.
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is associated with the degree of epistasis K in the complex
system. The higher the complexity of the system and the
larger its size, searches of the design space are more likely to
become trapped in local optima.
V. EMERGENCE
Complexity theory is meaningful for the successful design
of ICT-enabled market interactions because of its focus on the
concept of emergence. [26] describes the phenomenon as
follows:
Emergence refers to the phenomenon whereby the macroscopic
properties of the system arise from the microscopic properties
(interactions, relationships, structures and behaviours) and
heterogeneity of its constituents. The emergent macroscopic
‘whole’ displays a set of properties that is distinct from those
displayed by any subset of its individual constituents and their
interactions.
The phenomenon of emergence is well recognized in the
discussion of individual market behavior and overall market
outcomes:
In systems such as the economy, the actions of individual
players in the market are not co-ordinated in any way, yet the
overall behaviour of the market emerges from the combined
impact of their actions.[33]
Learning systems produce new, emergent orders. Events of
emergence are instances whereby coherent structures are
formed through the co-specifying activities of individuals.
These systems arise spontaneously and therefore can be selfmaintaining and sustainable. See[30] for details. Shifting
away from a literal view of markets as exchanges, the
emergent view insists that exchange takes place as a collective
practice within communities. It is a culturally and socially
situated activity. Social norms and interaction patterns in
exchange are described as properties of an emergent unity.
Due to the addition of mobile communication technology for
the facilitation of the market transactions, the social
interactions are mediated by the technology. Ideas of
emergence, adaptation and learning borrowed from the study
of complex systems [29-31, 34, 35] serve as the unifying point
for holistic, integrated approach to mobile market design.
Complexity theory is a viable methodological approach for
the design of mobile marketplaces because it provides insights
into the codetermination of overall market outcomes and
individual market behaviors. It can shed light on the
dependence of social welfare outcomes on the institutional
environment, the market mechanism and the mobile
technology mechanism, as well as on their interdependencies.
Furthermore, complexity-orientated method could clarify
micro-level prerequisites for the formation of stable social
networks, the evolution of efficient trading patterns and the
establishment of functioning symbolic orders within specific
cultural settings.
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VI. CONCLUSION
We have defines a concept of mobile markets relevant to the
context of developing countries and discussed the
opportunities offered by such markets. In Section III we
considered the challenges to market design posed by the
problem of designing mobile markets in developing countries.
These challenges include the weakness of the institutional
background and the complications of market interactions
which could be caused by the use of mobile technology.
Subsequently, we proposed an understanding of mobile
markets based on complexity theory in general, and
Kauffman’s NK-model in particular [29-31]. The way forward
for the design of mobile markets in developing country context
would involve the development of an appropriate mixed
methodology for the application of a design framework based
on complexity theory. Such methodology would involve the
construction of overall fitness measures i.e. composites of
quantitative measures of achieved market outcomes and
qualitative descriptions of market microstructure and mobile
interactions.
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