Environment Canada - Meteorological Service of Canada
Meteorologists’ Training Monthly Newsletter
February - 2002
Upcoming Training
RADAR Training Workshop
MSC Winter Weather Course
2nd Annual National Severe Weather Workshop (NWA)
Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop
College of DuPage Severe Weather Workshop
Doppler Radar and Severe Weather Conference
25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6th Annual Northern Plains Workshop
13th Conference on Applied Climatology
10th Conference on Aviation, Range and Aerospace
Meteorology
12th Joint Conference on Air Pollution Meteorology and
Waste Management
The Northern Environment - 36th CMOS Congress
11th Conference on Cloud Physics
10th Conference on Mountain Meteorology
21st Conference on Severe Local Storms
19th Conference on Weather Analysis & Forecasting
15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
7th Int'l Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting
15th Int'l Conference of Biometeorology and Aerobology
Week of February 11
February 17 - March 1
March 1-2
March 1-2
March 14-16
March 21-23
April 29 - May 3
May 8-10
May 13-16
May 13-16
Vancouver, B.C.
Boulder, Colorado
Norman, Oklahoma
Seattle, Washington
Chicago, Illinois
Des Moines, Iowa
San Diego, California
Bismarck, North Dakota
Portland, Oregon
Portland, Oregon
May 20-24
Norfolk, Virginia
May 22-25
June 3-7
June 17-21
August 12-16
Rimouski, Quebec
Ogden, Utah
Park City, Utah
San Antonio, Texas
October 21-25
October 28 - November 1
Banff, Alberta
Kansas City, Missouri
Inside This Issue
-1Environment Canada - Meteorologists’ Training Monthly Newsletter - February 2002
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2 Editor’s Note
4 Pacific Region
Report on the 18th Conference on Weather
Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference
on Numerical Weather Prediction
2 National
CMOS Congress 2002 - Rimouski
MSC/COMET Winter Weather Course
3
Prairie and Northern Region
5 Edmonton MOIP Does Summer in January
Project Phoenix Training Continues at the Prairie
College of DuPage Severe Weather Workshop
Storm Prediction Centre
MSC Citation of Excellence for Support to
Training and Outreach
Services, Clients and Partners Directorate
Report on the 18th Conference on Weather
6 Analysis and Forecasting
Call for Papers: Doppler Radar and Severe
Weather Conference
Doppler Radar Workshop Given by Training
Services Unit Winnipeg
7
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Editor’s Note
This issue of the Meteorologist’s Monthly Training Newsletter contains two articles on last summer’s 18th
Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, one by Karen MacDonald and the other by Richard
Joseph.. Their different perspectives are appreciated and the editor wishes to thank them for their
contribution. The editor would also like to thank all those who submitted and/or reviewed articles for this
newsletter. Your contributions are most welcome and greatly appreciated!
National
CMOS Congress 2002 - Rimouski
Meteorologists are invited to participate in the 36th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and
Oceanographic Society (CMOS), to be held on May 22-25, 2002, in Rimouski, Quebec. (Rimouski is located
on the south shore of the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary) The theme of the congress is the Northern
Environment and there will be presentations by internationally recognized keynote speakers, scientists and
students from across Canada and abroad. Scientific contributions in the fields of meteorology,
oceanography, hydrology, and biology dealing with all aspects of the Northern Environment are welcome.
Areas of interest include permafrost, ice, sea ice and snow, the seasonal cycle, atmosphere-ocean exchanges,
limnology, fjords, polynyas, climate change and variability, the carbon cycle, biogeochemistry, Arctic
chemistry, paleoclimate, glaciation, ecosystem boundaries and contaminants. Contributions in all fields of
meteorology and oceanography, such as atmospheric, coastal and oceanic processes, boundary layer
meteorology, cloud physics, energy and radiation, measurement methods and operational forecasting, are also
welcome. In addition, for the first time in the history of the CMOS Congress, a special session on “Women
in Science and Technology” has been scheduled.
The CMOS congress offers a tremendous low-cost opportunity to host meetings on various national and
international programs. It has always been a favourite among students, scientists, and all lovers of the
environment for learning and sharing their knowledge, developing new friendships and collaborations, and
making interesting new discoveries on the present and future state of our environment.
For more information, visit the Congress web site at http://scmo-cmos-2002.osl.gc.ca.
MSC/COMET Winter Weather Course
The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), in conjunction with the Cooperative Program for Operational
Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET), will hold its Second Winter Weather Forecasting Course
from February 17 to March 1, 2002 at the COMET facility in Boulder, Colorado. The Alaska Region of the
U.S. National Weather Service (NWS), who has joined the MSC/COMET training initiative as a partner, will
also be taking part. Funding for the MSC/COMET training initiative is provided through the Environment
Canada Learning Fund.
Representatives from all five MSC Regions, the Aviation and Defence Services Branch and the Canadian
Meteorological Centre will be participating. NWS will be sending six participants, including three from
Alaska. Course instructors include professors from leading U.S. and Canadian universities, as well as experts
from MSC and NWS. In response to the feedback from the evaluations provided by participants in the
inaugural course in 2001, much of the most valued material will be repeated. New material and instructors
have also been added, which will hopefully further enhance the learning experience.
The course will once again focus on hazardous winter season meteorology, from the synoptic scale to the
mesoscale. The ultimate goal of the course is for participants to increase their understanding of winter
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weather phenomena and to then transfer this knowledge to local forecast centre meteorologists. To further
enable this knowledge transfer, efforts will be made to make as much of the material as possible available to
the participants to take back to their offices as PowerPoint presentations or web-based modules.
Once again, comprehensive evaluations will form an important part of the course structure. This will enable
further improvements to be made in subsequent classroom-based courses and help design other learning
materials and methods to contribute to MSC’s goal of developing a sound scientific basis for the forecasting
process.
For more information, please contact Peter Lewis at plewis@comet.ucar.edu or the MSC COMET Winter
Weather home page at: http://www.comet.ucar.edu/class/aes_canada/index.htm.
CALL FOR PAPERS: Doppler Radar and Severe Weather Conference
The Central Iowa Chapter of the National Weather Association (NWA) is planning the 6th annual forum of
the Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference. The conference will begin on Thursday, March 21 and
end on Saturday, March 23, 2001. Anyone wishing to present a paper for consideration should submit a
200-word abstract to:
Central Iowa Chapter - NWA
P.O. Box 7512
Urbandale, IA, 50322
E-mail entries will also be accepted at: candersn@iastate.edu.
The deadline for abstracts is February 28. More information is available on the web site at:
http://www.iowa-nwa.com.
College of DuPage (Illinois) Severe Weather Workshop
The College of DuPage Meteorology Department will be holding its third Severe Weather Conference for
Undergraduates at the College of DuPage, Glen Ellyn, Illinois, from Thursday, March 14 through to
Saturday, March 16, 2002. The conference is intended for meteorology majors, professional meteorologists,
storm chasers, severe weather spotters and severe weather enthusiasts. The primary focus of the conference
is on the latest techniques for severe weather forecasting, physical processes leading to the development of
supercells and tornadoes, and the effective use of remote sensing in severe thunderstorm evolution and
behaviour. More information, including the agenda, is available on the web site: http://weather.cod.edu/svrconf.
MSC Citation of Excellence for Support to Training and Outreach
An exceptional effort to promote meteorological training and spread the word about career opportunities at
MSC has earned Spencer Silver of the Aviation and Defence Services Branch a Citation of Excellence.
Marc Denis Everell, Assistant Deputy Minister of MSC, presented the award to Spencer at a town hall
meeting at the LaSalle Academy in Ottawa on December 13.
In September 2000, Spencer took over the publication of the Meteorologists’ Training Monthly Newsletter,
an internal publication that keeps over 300 subscribers informed about MSC training issues. To help promote
diversity and employment equity at MSC, he leads a working group on the issue, has been instrumental in
developing a strategic action plan for MSC, and networks with organizations for Aboriginal peoples and
persons with disabilities, schools and independent living centres in Manitoba. He recently submitted a special
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educational supplement to an Aboriginal magazine. Keep up the good work, Spencer!
Pacific Region
Report on the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the
14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Richard Joseph, of Meteorological Operations at the Pacific Weather Centre, attended both the 18th
Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference Numerical Weather Prediction,
which were held from July 30 to August 2, 2001 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Richard wrote a report on these
conferences, a very brief summary of which follows.
After opening remarks by chairperson Cliff Mass, of the University of Washington, a joint session on
mesoscale models was held. Sessions were held on the following topics:
1. Mesoscale data assimilation
2. Instruments and data collection
3. Operational use of analysis for forecast development and ensembles
The Miami National Weather Service Forecast Office gave a daily weather briefing during the lunch hour.
There were also poster sessions and a regular joint panel and group discussion/debate/dissertation that
addressed a particular topic related to the day’s proceedings (e.g., how would the role of forecasters in
mesoscale weather prediction change over the next few decades?)
Highlights of several topics relevant to operations are as follows:
 Mesoscale Models: There are still problems regarding mesoscale predictability. The location and
character of mesoscale systems depend heavily on their planetary scale environment, which contains
uncertainties that profoundly affect predictability on the mesoscale.
 Mesoscale Predictability: A study suggests that accurate prediction of weather-producing gravity waves
can only be achieved when strong balance constraints are not used for initialization. Initialization
problems cause a transient period of poor forecast quality, and may, among other things, degrade longerterm forecast skill.
 Santa Cruz Eddy: This summertime circulation is somewhat similar to the “Carmanah Low”, with which
PWC Marine Forecasters are familiar.
 Mesoscale Meteorology of the Columbia Gorge: This study, which focuses on how outflow wind, or
“gap flow”, defines the climate of a surrounding region, can be very useful in understanding the
importance of the dynamical processes occurring within the Fraser Valley and mainland inlets.
 Essential Ingredients for Heavy Orographic Rainfall: Events studied in the United States, Europe and
Asia reveal that there are common features leading to heavy orographic rainfall:
 a conditionally or potentially unstable airflow against the mountains;
 a very moist low level jet;
 presence of other very steep orography; and
 the presence of a quasi-stationary synoptic system.
 Data Collection and Assimilation: A scarcity of in-situ data in remote areas and the oceans can be dealt
with by assimilation of satellite data and scatterometer observations of the ocean wind speed and
direction.
 Use of Improved GOES Satellites: The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) uses
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




cloud-drift infrared and cloud-top water vapour derived winds for initialization in observation-poor
regions.
Impact of Lost Russian RAOBS on NWP Skill: A decrease of 65 to 70% of RAOBS from a number of
Russian sites between 1994 and 1999 led to a systematic loss of skill in the short range (less than three
days) in Asia, Alaska and Northern Canada. For over three days, there was no loss of skill.
Model Trend and Satellite Imagery in Forecasting: This paper discussed a particular significant
initialization problem that has led to erroneous forecasts.
Mesoscale Meteorology Primer: This primer is tailored for, and targeted at, the military forecaster, but is
useful to other forecasters.
Overview of Ensemble Forecasting and Data Assimilation: While ensemble-based data assimilation
techniques are valuable, because of problems dealing with computational expense, model errors and
non-Gaussian statistics, these techniques are not yet ready for operational use.
Ensemble Methods Applied to Hurricane Track Forecasting.
In his report, Richard Joseph lists papers associated with each of the above topics, and suggests that they be
required reading at operational centres in the Pacific and Yukon Region.
Contact: Richard Joseph at (604) 664-9385, or Richard.Joseph@ec.gc.ca.
Prairie and Northern Region
Edmonton MOIP Does Summer in January
The Edmonton Meteorological Operational Internship Program (MOIP 2001-02) recently completed a oneweek simulator course on convective weather. The simulator ran during the week of January 7-11, 2002.
During that week, interns used their newly acquired forecast skills to “hunt” for convection. A total of eight
convective days were assessed using a combination of analysis and diagnosis skills combined with short range
forecast techniques. The students were asked to find the day’s “threat area” and the “severity” of the
convention (e.g. type of convection: single cell, multicell or supercell). In the end, the interns produced a
number of products including a T+12 Miller prognostic chart, two clouds and weather GFA panels, TAFs
and public forecasts for the threat area.
The course ran with archive data in an “almost real time” environment. Access to this data was made
possible by using LINUX workstations and a newly developed archive data retrieval system set up by the
Edmonton Informatics Department. A big thanks goes out to Informatics staff Richard Juszkiewicz, Andrew
Ellis and Richard Serna for developing the system and getting it up and running. This system allowed the
instructors to easily load up to eight archive data CDs (containing IM and AM data) onto the intern server.
Once the CDs were loaded, the students could access the data from their individual workstations. As a
result, the data that was available to the interns was identical to what “real time” forecasters would have seen
on each particular day.
For more information contact: david.whittle@ec.gc.ca.
Project Phoenix Training Continues at the Prairie Storm Prediction Centre
The Prairie Storm Prediction Centre (PSPC) successfully ran its 4th Project Phoenix during the third week of
January. Project Phoenix is a simulated weather centre training system that is designed to prepare forecasters
for the “weather centre of the future”. This three-person simulator allows forecasters to fine-tune their skills
in the more critical forecast timeframes, such as the first 24 hours, where the majority of users make the most
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weather-related decisions. This form of forecasting, known as “nowcasting”, puts greater emphasis on the
diagnosis of weather observations, the forecasting of significant weather, and the utility of the forecast. To
help achieve this approach, the forecasters learn to take greater advantage of computer-generated weather
forecasts for forecasts beyond the first 24 hours, while focusing on observed weather data for short-range
forecasts. This forecasting approach is what is visioned for MSC weather centres in the future. The PSPC is
already adopting the lessons learned in Project Phoenix. Further Project Phoenixes are planned for the
months ahead.
Contact: Pat McCarthy at 204-983-1904, or Patrick.McCarthy@ec.gc.ca.
Services, Clients, and Partners Directorate
Report on the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Editor’s note: This report is by Karen MacDonald of Weather Services Centre Comox.
The 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting was held from July 30 to August 2 in
Fort Lauderdale, Florida, an interesting location given that it was the beginning of hurricane season. Early on
in the conference, one of the chairpersons remarked that “if you gather that many meteorologists together in
southern Florida at that time of year, something is bound to happen”. Lo and behold, Tropical Storm Barry
kicked up right over southern Florida later that week. Wednesday evening, at the conference banquet, held on
a boat, we had heavy showers, wind and lightning.
The conference itself had a very tight schedule, with presentations every day from 8 a.m. through until about
5 p.m. The conference was held jointly with the 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, and there were
joint panel discussions on the Monday, Tuesday and Thursday evenings.
The following is a summary of some very interesting presentations:
Ed Bensman, of the Air Force Weather Agency, gave an overview of numerical weather prediction at the Air
Force Weather Agency, which currently operates a model with 66 windows in different parts of the world. It
has interactive tools for spot forecasts. Its downfall at this time is its very coarse resolution.
Jocelyn Mailhot, of MSC, Dorval, introduced the next version of our operational GEM regional mesoscale
model. It will have an increase in both horizontal and vertical resolution, as well as an improved physics
package. Improvements over the current version are most noticeable in the surface temperature and the QPF
forecasts.
Changes to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ETA model are also being planned.
Some of the changes, such as extension of the Meso ETA forecast to 84 hours, have already taken place. The
remainder are planned for November 2001. These include an increase in resolution as well as assimilation of
radar data and GOES cloud cover data.
One of the posters looked at a comparison of MM5 cloud forecasts and GOES cloud analyses. It found that
MM5 did much better for thicker cloud and also does better on runs initialized in day (i.e., 00Z).
Another poster by Kim Curry, Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center, introduced a mesoscale
meteorology “primer” for the operational forecaster. Four of the proposed 16 modules are completed, one
of which is on west coast fog. The primer is a series of webcast CBT modules available over the Internet.
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One of the presentations in the Mesoscale Processes Conference dealt with the impact of California’s coastal
mountains on the evolution of an approaching front. A southeasterly flow near shore retards the easterly
motion of the surface front. The upper portion of the front continues eastward allowing cold air to move in
aloft above the warm air still remaining at low levels leading to instability.
Verification of HIMAP’s cloud and super-cooled water (SCW) forecasts was done using data collected during
four winter storm projects (two based in Newfoundland and two in the Great Lakes region). Based on the
results of this study, Hong Guan of MSC, Downsview, said that the GEM (HIMAP) will be changing to a
new cloud scheme. The current scheme (Sundqvist) has only one prognostic variable (total cloud water – ice
or liquid). Other schemes examined in this study were more complex and results from them were much
closer to reality.
Brent Shaw of NOAA Research-Forecast Systems Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, gave an interesting
overview of the new version of LAPS (Local Analysis and Prediction System). It is still officially in test mode
but has been run in real-time mode since the fall of 2000. It is available both on the Internet
(http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov) and on the AWIPS workstation at the Weather Forecast Office in Boulder for
operational evaluation. Verification results show significant improvement in 0-12 hr forecasts of cloud and
precipitation.
The topic of Monday evening’s joint panel discussion was “How will the role of humans in mesoscale
weather prediction change during the next few decades?” The discussion was very lively and entertaining,
with various people both on the panel and in the audience giving their opinions on where we’ll all be and
what we’ll be doing in 20 years. (One opinion was that we will be ‘toast’.)
This conference was actually a combination of the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and
the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. While I found the conference very worthwhile, it
leaned a bit too heavily towards numerical weather prediction for my liking. I would have liked to have seen
more practical presentations geared more toward the operational forecaster.
On that note, we, as operational meteorologists, should be much more confident about presenting papers at
conferences such as this. Operationally, we often have a better overall understanding of the weather than
many researchers, who tend to have a very narrow perspective. They know a lot about their own particular
area of expertise, but sometimes lose track of the big picture.
Attending these conferences also provides an opportunity to learn more about what is being talked about and
looked at by the meteorological community. As a result, we gain a better idea of what is happening outside
of our own little office.
Contact: Karen MacDonald, WSC Comox, at (250) 339-8242.
Doppler Radar Workshop Given by Training Services Unit Winnipeg
On January 10, 2002, Training Services Unit (TSU) Winnipeg staff gave a full day Doppler Radar Workshop
to their colleagues at DND’s Canadian Forces School of Meteorology (CFSMET). The workshop was
attended by the DND meteorological technician instructors at CFSMET, CFSMET Commandant Kim
Redekopp, a seconded MSC employee, and other DND meteorological technicians from outside CFSMET,
including some from the Canadian Forces Weather Office - Winnipeg and the 1st Canadian Air Division
Headquarters (1CAD), both located at 17 Wing Winnipeg. Four meteorologists from MSC’s Prairie Storm
Prediction Centre also attended the session.
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The workshop was given by Louis Richard and Barry Konzelman, two MSC meteorologists with the TSU
Winnipeg who between them have worked for CFSMET for over 30 years. The objective of this workshop
was to increase the radar knowledge of CFSMET and other CFWOS (Canadian Forces Weather and
Oceanographic Service) staff with the addition of “Doppler Radar Basics” through to “Interpreting Doppler
Radar Mesoscale Patterns”. The workshop was a combination of classroom lectures and hands-on exercises
in the CFSMET weather simulator/laboratory. Everyone who attended enjoyed the course and hopefully it
will be repeated for other CFWOS staff in the future. The staff at TSU Winnipeg are continually striving to
provide their client, CFSMET, with the best possible combination of senior course instruction and additional
in-house instruction when time allows. In addition to this work, TSU Winnipeg maintains up-to-date course
materials and in-depth reference manuals for the senior level curriculum at CFSMET.
TSU Winnipeg is part of the Meteorological Training Services Division of the Aviation and Defence Services
Branch, which is under the MSC’s Services, Clients and Partners Directorate. TSU Winnipeg is located at
DND’s Canadian Forces School of Meteorology at 17 Wing Winnipeg and provides services to DND
through a memorandum of understanding.
For more information, contact Jasmin Paola, manager, TSU Winnipeg, at (204) 833-2500, local 5838.
Readers are encouraged to submit articles related to learning, training and recruitment. Submissions, editorials, or
any questions related to items without a contact can be directed to Spencer.Silver@ec.gc.ca
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