Supplementary file – Evans et al. J.R. Soc. Interface
Observed date (leaf spotting)
a
b
Bridgets
Boxworth
High Mowthorpe
Mamhead
Rothamsted
Rosemaund
Terrington
120
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/2000
2000/01
2001/02
100
80
18
20
22
Mean maximum daily temperature
80
120
160
Sum of daily rainfall
Supplementary Figure 1. Phoma model construction. a, Relationship between
maximum daily temperature over six seasons (Tmax, mean for period 15 July to 26
September) and the date (days after 15 July, harvest date) when winter oilseed rape
crops were observed to have 10% plants with phoma leaf spot (Dlo) for seven sites
across the UK (R2 = 0.75). b Relationship between sum of daily rainfall over seven
sites across the UK (Rsum, total for period 15 July to 26 September) and date when
oilseed rape crops were observed to have 10% plants with phoma leaf spot for six
seasons (R2 = 0.46). Details of experiments given in supplementary Table 1.
Observed date leaf spotting (days from harvest)
120
Bridgets
Boxworth
High Mowthorpe
Rothamsted
Rosemaund
Terrington
100
80
80
100
120
Predicted date
Supplementary Figure 2.
Phoma model construction. Relationship between
observed dates (days after 15 July, harvest date) when 10% of winter oilseed rape
plants were affected by phoma leaf spot (Dlo) in experiments at seven sites in 1996/97
to 2001/02 growing seasons and dates predicted by a weather-based model (Dlp=
216.5 – 0.24 Rsum – 4.55 Tmax where Rsum = total rainfall and Tmax = mean maximum
temperature between 15 July and 26 September, respectively), assessed by linear
regression (R2 = 0.63). Details of experiments given in supplementary Table 1.
100
(days from harvest)
Observed date leaf spotting
a
80
Resistant cultivars
Susceptible cultivars
60
60
80
100
120
Predicted date (leaf spotting)
b
Observed date (canker)
340
300
260
Resistant cultivars
Susceptible cultivars
220
260
300
340
Predicted date (canker)
c
Observed canker severity
4
Resistant cultivars
Susceptible cultivars
3
2
1
0
0
1
2
3
Predicted canker severity
Supplementary Figure 3. Phoma model validation. Relationship between observed
and predicted a, date (days after 15 July, harvest date) when 10% of plants had phoma
leaf spot (R2 = 0.54), b, date when 10% of plants had phoma stem canker (R2 = 0.28)
and c, stem canker severity score at harvest (R2 = 0.045) for seven sites across the UK
in 2002/03 to 2006/07 growing seasons. Details of experiments given in
supplementary Table 2.
Supplementary Figure 4. Predicted number of days after harvest in summer (15
July) until the date in autumn when 10% of winter oilseed rape plants are affected
with phoma leaf spot (Leptosphaeria maculans) for a, baseline 1960-90, b, 2020LO,
c, 2020HI, d, 2050LO and e, 2050HI climates under low
scenarios.
and high
emission
Supplementary Table 1 Details of UK winter oilseed rape cultivars, seasons and field experiment locations that provided disease data on phoma leaf spot and
stem canker epidemics to develop a model for predicting the start of phoma leaf spotting in autumn (dataset A), the start of phoma stem canker in spring (dataset
B) and the severity of phoma stem canker epidemics at harvest in summer (dataset C).
Location
1992/93
1993/94
Rothamsted,
Hertfordshire
Envol (5)bc
Envol (5)bc
Boxworth,
Cambridgeshire
Rosemaund,
Herefordshire
Season crop was grown/cultivar(s) (HGCA resistance rating) 1
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/2000
2000/01
2001/02
Bristol (5)bc
Capitol (6)bc
Bristol (5)bc
Capitol (6)a2b*2c*
Lipton (5)abc
Apex (6)abc
Bristol (5)bc
Capitol (6) b2c*
Lipton (5)bc
Apex (6)abc
Capitol (6)bc
Lipton (5)bc
Apex (5)a
Pronto (5)a
Apex (5)a
Rocket (4)a
Alpine (5)a
Bristol c
Capitol bc
Apexabc
Apex ab2c
Pronto (5)c
Apex ac
Escort (7)c
Pronto (5)c
Apex a3c*
Recital (7)a
Royal (4)a
Escort (7)3c*
Pronto (5) 3c*
Apex(6)a
Apexa
Apexa
Apexa
Apexa
Recitala
Royala
Apexa
Apexa
Bridgets,
Hampshire
Apexa
Recitala
Royala
Mamhead,
Devon
Terrington,
Norfolk
High Mowthorpe,
North Yorkshire
aDataset
Apexa
Apexa
Apexa
Apexa
Apexa
Recitala
Royala
Apexa
Apexa
Apexa
Apexa
Recitala
Royala
A (40 sets), bdataset B (18 sets), cdataset C (32 sets). *In some seasons at some sites, more than one set of data were available for a particular cultivar
and the number of datasets used precedes the superscript letter used to denote that dataset.
1Numbers in parentheses indicate cultivar rating for resistance to L. maculans from the HGCA Recommended List for winter oilseed rape for that season (9, very
resistant; 1, very susceptible).
Supplementary Table 2 Details of UK winter oilseed rape field experiment locations, cultivars and
seasons that provided disease data on phoma leaf spot and stem canker epidemics to validate a
model for predicting the onset of phoma leaf spotting in autumn (dataset A) the onset of phoma stem
canker in spring (dataset B) and the severity of phoma stem canker epidemics at harvest in summer
(dataset C)
Season crop was grown/cultivars (HGCA resistance rating)1
Location
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
Rothamsted,
Hertfordshire
Canberra (7) 2a*2b*2c*
Canberra (7) abc
Canberra (7) 2a*
Courage (4) abc
Courage (4) abc
Courage (4) 2a*
Darmor (Res.) abc
Darmor (Res.) abc
174 cultivarsa
Eurol (Sus.) abc
Eurol (Sus.) abc
172 cultivarsac
173 cultivarsac
Escort (7) abc
NK Bravour (6)ac
Royal (4)abc
Labrador (5)ac
Boxworth,
Cambridgeshire
Winner (5)a
Recital (7) abc
Winner(6)abc
Rosemaund,
Herefordshire
Escortabc
NK Bravourac
Barrel (5)a
Royalabc
Recitalabc
High Mowthorpe,
North Yorkshire
Escortabc
NK Bravourac
Royalabc
Pollen (6) ac
Recitalabc
Terrington,
Norfolk
Winnerabc
Ashford, Kent
Caracas (7)abc
Labrador ac
Winnera
Winner (5)ac
Wolverhampton
Winnerabc
West Midlands
aDataset A, bdataset B, cdataset C. *In some seasons at some sites, more than one set of data were
available for a particular cultivar and the number of datasets used precedes the superscript letter
used to denote that dataset.
1Numbers in parentheses indicate cultivar rating for resistance to L. maculans from the HGCA
Recommended List for winter oilseed rape for that season (9, very resistant; 1 very susceptible).
2 Cultivars in 2004/05 season – Apex (5), Aragon (6), Bristol (4), Castille (7), Disco (4), Elan (5),
Escort, Expert (7), Fortis (5), Lioness (5), NK Bravour (6), NK Victory (4), Ontario (4), Recital, Royal,
Shannon (6) and Winner.
3 Cultivars in 2005/06 season (number in parentheses indicates a change in rating from previous
season) - Apex, Bristol, Castille, Disco (5), Elan (4), ES Astrid (8), Escort (5), Expert (6), Fortis,
Lioness, NK Bravour (5), NK Victory (5), Ontario (4), Recital (6), Royal, Shannon and Winner.
4 Cultivars in 2006/07 season - Apex, Bristol, Castille, Disco, Elan, ES Astrid, Escort, Expert, Fortis,
Lioness, NK Bravour, NK Victory, Ontario, Recital, Royal, Shannon, Winner.