ECOHYDROLOGY: KEYSTONE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University Introduction It is widely acknowledged that water is fundamental for human life and the keystone of environmentally responsible development. Poverty, disease, and political collapse will follow the failure of environmental support systems (Brown, 2006). The dynamics of the hydrologic cycle is at the heart of these environmental systems. A crucial component of ecosystem functioning is the hydrologic dynamics responsible for many fundamental ecological patterns and processes. Ecohydrology is precisely the study of such dynamics and lies at the frontier of the environmental sciences where it takes place the natural convergence of the biological and the physical sciences. This convergence will transform our understanding of the processes that control the stability and sustainability of natural environmental systems. Such knowledge is critical for a safe and sustainable future and will play a key role in problems related to food production, land degradation, preservation of biodiversity, ecological services, desertification and many others. Sustainable Development and Climate Change “Although it is natural to think first of temperature when we think of global warming, the impact of climate change in precipitation may be even more important in the long run for many places and many people” (Henson, 2006). The ecohydrological impacts of climate change are related mainly to precipitation and streamflow and their consequences are both in terms of quantity and quality of the water resources as well as in the ecosystem functions which are crucial to conserve biodiversity and secure the important ecosystem services they provide. It has been clearly demonstrated that changes in the frequency of rainfall events, even when the total rainfall in the region remains unchanged, will frequently lead to dramatic shifts in the water balance of ecosystems which are then accompanied by serious impacts on the net assimilation of plants, changes in vegetation type and structure, soil conditions, etc. (Porporato et al., 2004). When the changes on the frequency of the rainfall events is accompanied by a change in the total rainfall the impacts become even more dramatic. Accounting for changes only in mean responses to climatic variability is far from sufficient for a realistic evaluation of the impact of climate change in ecosystems. Soil moisture dynamics, photosynthesis, and plant assimilation are greatly dependent on the temporal dynamics of precipitation. Changes in the frequency of rainfall events as well as in the precipitation depth of such events are being detected throughout the planet with consequences which extend from floods and droughts, to food production and biodiversity. Climate-Vegetation Interaction Defining the dynamic interactions between vegetation and climate is a research priority for the quantification of criteria for sustainable development. Vegetation responds to climatic fluctuations over a range from diurnal to multidecadal time scales as well as from local to regional spatial scales. This response is especially significant in savanna ecosystems which cover 40% of the earth’s terrestrial surface and are vital to the survival of a large part of humanity. They are commonly water-limited ecosystems, highly coupled to rainfall variability which show a relatively robust coexistence between trees and grasses. The hydrological aspects of these ecosystems are crucial to why savannas exist and persist. In particular the dynamical nature of the vegetation in savannas, very much linked to the rainfall characteristics, is a key factor which promotes robustness in an environment that has a fluctuating limiting resource. There exist thresholds in the composition of vegetation-e.g., trees and grasses- beyond which the ecosystem will not recover and will shift to a different structure or disappear completely. These thresholds could be surpassed as a result of changes in climate-e.g., rainfall dynamics-or through man induced consequencese.g., overgrazing-or both. Some key questions related to the functioning and sustainability of savannas are thus: 1-What are the controls on the variable wet season grass fractional cover? 2-What are the effects of the dynamic grass cover on the overall ecosystem water use? 3-Are vegetation assemblages with a variable growth component more favorably suited to persist in a fluctuating rainfall environment? It has been found that the dynamic character of the grass cover enhances the degree to which the savanna vegetation is optimized with respect to water use and helps to close the water cycle at the land surface (Scanlon et al., 2005). Also, the frequently found transition from the nutrient-limited to the water-limited savanna ecosystems is related to the shift from the open to closed hydrologic cycle at the land surface. Impacts of Large-Scale Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks Fluctuations in the recycling component of precipitation over large spatial scales leads to dramatic shifts in the probabilistic behavior of the soil moisture balance equation (Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., 1991). Thus, an increase in the coefficient of variation of the rainfall component resulting from the local evaporation (rather than from external or advective sources) will lead to important changes in the probability distribution of the soil moisture over the region. With a not too large increase in these fluctuations of precipitation, the probability distribution of soil moisture shifts to a bimodal regime where the moisture stays preferably in either a wet mode or a dry mode, the second one frequently being the most likely one. The appearance of a multiple mode regime in soil moisture is of key importance for the ecosystem sustainability. Long periods of unusually severe droughts become much more likely with the soil moisture exhibiting a strong persistence to remain for long periods below or above its statistical average. Such a dynamics in the moisture content of the soil induces drastic changes in the vegetation of the ecosystem. This is the case, specially, in savannas where it may lead to irreversible transformations that will have profound and lasting consequences in the sustainability of the region. References Brown, L.R., Plan B 2.0-Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, W.W. Norton and Co., 2006. Henson, R., The Rough Guide to Climate Change, Penguin Books, 2006. Porporato, A., E. Daly, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, Soil water balance and ecosystem response to climate change, American Naturalist, vol.164, n.5, 625-632-2004. Scanlon, T.M.,K.K. Caylor, S. Manfreda, S.A. Levin, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, Dynamic response of grass cover to rainfall variability: implications for the function and persistence of savanna ecosystems, Advances in Water Resources,Vol.28,291-302,2005. Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.,D. Entekhabi, and R .L. Bras, Non-linear dynamics of soil moisture at climate scales,1Stochastic analysis, Water Resources Research,Vol.27,1899-1906,1991.