Arctic Sea Ice Concentration from Operational Ice Charts and Satellite Passive Microwave Data or some other title Stern et al., including Meier, Fetterer, Fowler To be submitted to TGRS or JAOT February 7, 2007 Abstract Write this section last. Introduction Arctic sea ice varies annually from a minimum of about 6 million km2 in September to a maximum of 15 million km2 in March. Sea ice is an important component of the climate system, modulating the transfer of heat, moisture, and momentum between the ocean and the atmosphere; affecting the salinity of the ocean mixed layer through growth and melt; reflecting solar radiation back to space; and serving as an indicator of climate change. The decline of Arctic sea ice over the past 27 years is well documented, both in summer [Stroeve et al., 2005; ACIA Report, 2005; NSIDC reports on web, 2006; IPCC, 2007] and winter [Meier, Eos article]. The primary data source for monitoring sea ice concentration, extent, and trends since 1979 has been satellite passive microwave (PM) observations [references]. PM-derived sea ice concentration is also used to validate sea ice models [e.g. references] and to improve model fields through data assimilation [e.g. Lindsay and Zhang, 2006]. Since 1972 the U.S. National Ice Center (NIC) has produced weekly or biweekly Arctic and Antarctic sea ice charts. Data sources include various satellite sensors, aerial surveys, ship reports, model output, information from foreign ice services, and climatology. The charts are generated primarily for mission planning and safety of navigation. Although the charts do incorporate PM data, this occurs only where all other forms of data are not available [Partington et al., 2003]. Thus the NIC ice charts provide an alternative (albeit not completely independent) source of information on sea ice concentration. Previous studies have compared PM-derived sea ice concentration with NIC ice charts [Partington et al., 2003] during 1979-1994, and with Canadian ice charts [Agnew and Howell, 2003] during 1979-1996. These studies, discussed in more detail in the next section, generally found that the passive microwave products underestimated the sea ice concentration compared to the ice charts. This underestimation is in agreement with other studies that have examined passive microwave sea ice concentration [Comiso and Kwok, 1996; Fetterer and Untersteiner, 1998; Kwok, 2002]. 1 In the course of mapping the sea ice concentration using whatever source data, the location of the ice edge is of particular importance. NIC analysts who created the ice charts paid special attention to the ice edge and the marginal ice zone, as most military and commercial operations take place there. The ice edge location is also important for model validation, data assimilation, and understanding the physical controls on the sea ice extent. For example, Lindsay and Zhang [2006] assimilate PM-derived sea ice concentration into an ice/ocean model using a nudging technique that depends on the difference in concentration between the model prediction and the observations. When the difference is small, the model is weighted more heavily; when the difference is large, the observations are weighted more heavily. This has the effect of assimilating the ice extent, because large differences are likely to occur only near the ice edge. Thus an accurately observed ice edge is critical to the success of the assimilation scheme. Francis and Hunter [2006] examined the factors that drive ice edge variability, using the 50% concentration contour from PM data as their dependent variable. An accurately observed ice edge is important again, for correctly attributing the influence of the various driving factors. As discussed below, the NIC ice charts depict the ice edge more accurately than the PM data, offering the possibility of improved model validation, data assimilation, and physical insight. In this paper we analyze a new data set of Arctic sea ice charts spanning the period 19722004, which is available and fully documented at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) web site [Fetterer and Fowler, 2006]. While the charts from 1972-1994 were previously available on CD-ROM [Arctic Climatology Project, 2000], they have now been combined with the charts from 1995 through 2004 and made available on-line, including monthly climatologies of sea ice concentration at different levels, and browse images. In the next section we describe the data sets used in this study in more detail. This is followed by comparisons and results, and then concluding remarks. Data Sets NIC Operational Sea Ice Charts Against a background of steadily improving satellite instrumentation and chart production methods at NIC, two major efforts produced the data products that are the foundation for this data set. In 2000, NIC, in cooperation with the U.S./Russia Environmental Working Group (EWG), released the 1972-1994 Arctic ice analyses in digital format [Arctic Climatology Project, 2000]. This CD-ROM product, hereafter referred to as the EWG Atlas, is distributed by NSIDC. The undertaking included reviewing and correcting all of the historical weekly ice analyses in order to provide the most accurate products possible for archiving and for creating a climatology. Russian ice chart data are included in the product as well. 2 NSIDC asked that the ice chart files on the CD-ROM be made available in EASE-Grid (Equal Area Scalable Earth Grid) as well as in SIGRID (Sea Ice Grid) and GIS compatible formats. In response, ERIM International created EASE-Grid files and included them on the CD-ROM, following the convention established with the data set AARI 10-Day Arctic Ocean EASE-Grid Sea Ice Observations [Fetterer and Troisi, 1997]. This convention groups the many possible stages of development in a SIGRID source data file into five layers in the EASE-Grid file. For example, the EASE-Grid multiyear concentration layer has the combined concentrations of the WMO categories of old ice, second year ice, and multiyear ice stages of development from the source SIGRID file. In 2005, NIC contracted with NSIDC to update the EWG Atlas climatology. The first goal of the project was to create 5-year, 10-year, and 33-year total ice concentration climatology products for the Arctic region using the weekly NIC ice charts. The second goal was to make these climatology products, along with the entire series of weekly or biweekly ice charts, available in EASE-Grid. The equal area projection and gridded format of EASE-Grid data [Brodzik and Knowles, 2002], along with the existence of many other polar data sets in EASE-Grid, makes EASE-Grid format more useful for many researchers than the GIS format distributed by NIC. Thus the weekly or biweekly NIC ice charts for 1995-2004 were converted from GIS format to EASE-Grid format and combined with the 1972-1994 EASE-Grid files to create the complete data set. Since the products on the EWG Atlas have a pixel size of 25 km, the 1995-2004 charts were converted to 25-km pixel size also. Data quality issues associated with the ice charts are as follows: (1) The number of satellite data sources increased over the years and the resolution improved, resulting in more information content in the later charts. Before 1980, analysts depended heavily on visible, infrared, and single-channel passive microwave imagery. Multi-channel passive microwave data were added in 1980; higher resolution visible and infrared imagery in 1991; synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery in 1995; and scatterometer data in 2004. (2) The analysis systems evolved over time. In 1990, NIC's first computer-assisted production system was fully installed. NIC transitioned to digital imagery analysis tools in 1996-1997 and began to move toward a GIS production environment. (3) More attention to detail was given to areas of operational importance such as the ice edge and marginal ice zones of the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. (4) A large proportion of the NIC analysts are military personnel on two to three year rotations. Analysts vary in skill and level of training. (In order to mitigate this effect, the analyst training curriculum was codified and standardized in the early 2000s). (5) Prior to 1976 and after 1986, pack ice in the central Arctic was charted as 9 to 10 tenths concentration, if not known to be otherwise. The digitized charts record this as 95% concentration. Between 1976 and 1986, such ice was labeled 10 tenths. The digitized charts record this as 100% concentration. (6) Before 1995 only total ice concentration was reported. Starting in 1995 the charts recorded partial concentrations (multiyear, first-year, thin ice). The partial concentrations do not always add up to the total concentration. [MORE on this later, right?]. (7) Before 1995 NIC produced only Eastern and Western Arctic charts. By 1996 NIC was producing 39 non-overlapping regional charts. (8) In mid-June 2001, NIC changed from producing charts every week to every other week. (9) The transformation 3 of chart data from paper or vector format to gridded format results in some unavoidable loss of information and introduction of error. These have not been quantified. (10) The digitized land pixels in the 1995-2004 charts did not exactly match those of the EWG Atlas. We resolved this problem by applying a consistent land mask to all the charts (1972-2004) consisting of pixels that were land in either the 1972-1994 charts or the 1995-2004 charts. (11) The procedure for converting the 1972-1994 charts into digital EASE-Grid format for the EWG Atlas included several iterations and quality control steps. The procedure for converting the 1995-2004 charts was not exactly the same. (12) We believe that total ice concentrations before 1997 are biased low relative to those after, due primarily to the introduction of high resolution SAR imagery around that time. (13) The weekly charts are based on data that are not a snapshot of conditions, but rather were assembled over several days. The analysts project information forward so the chart is valid on a given day. This may introduce errors. So—what can we say about the overall accuracy (or uncertainty) of the total ice concentration numbers? We have to say something, and give reasons, even if they’re basically guesses. We should also reference Partington’s (2003) estimate(s). The primary strength of the NIC charts is that they were created by specialists using manual analyses of data from many sources. For example, if the ice concentration is difficult to gauge in the summer using SAR imagery because of surface melt, the analyst has the option of checking visible band imagery. If the ice edge cannot be located in visible band imagery because of clouds, the analyst can use scatterometry. This (mostly) manual form of multi-sensor data fusion produces ice information more accurately than any single data source or automated approach. Also, the operational source data receives additional quality control by NIC before being added to the final chart product, RIGHT? To summarize: The weekly 1972-1994 charts are from the EWG Atlas in EASE-Grid format. They consist of total ice concentration, with a separate designation for landfast ice. The weekly 1995-2004 charts (biweekly starting mid-June 2001) were converted to EASE-Grid by NSIDC. They consist of five layers: the concentrations of multiyear ice, first-year ice, thin ice, total ice, and a binary (yes/no) landfast ice indicator. All charts are 361 x 361 pixels with a nominal pixel size of 25 km. SUMMARIZE THE ACCURACY in one short sentence. See Fetterer and Fowler [2006] for the full documentation. Landfast ice pixels are counted as 100% concentration for the purposes of calculating the total ice concentration, ice area, or ice extent within a region. However, in this paper we do not examine the landfast ice distribution or trends; see Yu et al. [2007]. Figure 1 is a sample digitized ice chart from DATE, showing the total ice concentration for that date. DO WE even need this? 4 Satellite Passive Microwave Products A few sentences about SMMR and SSM/I, what passive microwave is, what it detects. Describe the NASA Team (NT) products [Cavalieri et al., 1996, updated 2006]. Describe the Bootstrap (BT) products [Comiso, 1995, updated 2005]. Give space/time coverage, how the algorithms differ, what they were designed for, and the estimated uncertainties in sea ice concentration [references]. Some points are: (1) NT and BT use the same underlying passive microwave data. The algorithms are designed for different purposes (say what). (2) NT and BT result in different sea ice concentrations. The differences are seasonal. BT is generally higher than NT. Maybe show a figure. (3) There are inconsistencies in the PM sea ice time series. The transition from SMMR to SSM/I is evident when you look at BT minus NT. There is seasonal variation. There are even differences within the same algorithm, depending on tie points, weather filter, coastal contamination/extended land mask. (4) Known underestimation of sea ice concentration esp. in summer by NT [references]. Mention other PM algorithms. NT2. NRTSI. Walt writes: BT and NT are applicable to both hemispheres. As I understand it, the motivation for BT was to resolve deficiencies of NT in the Antarctic. But they both use different tiepoints for each hemisphere. I’ve found that BT seems to be better than NT, in general, in the Arctic; I haven’t looked at the Antarctic much. The inconsistency issue for PM (point 3) is a good one. It’s something I’ve noticed, but nothing has been published on it, so I think that’s a potential key result, especially if we could provide some insight on (1) what caused it, (2) which algorithm it occurs in. Previous Comparisons of Ice Charts and Passive Microwave Products A study based on digital versions of the NIC charts covering the Arctic every week from 1972-1994 [Partington et al., 2003] shows that the charts consistently report about 4% more ice per unit area than passive microwave retrievals from the NASA Team algorithm. This holds for November through May. Beginning in June, the difference rises to about 23%, and falls off gradually over the summer and into fall freeze-up. The difference after freeze-up (which begins in September over most of the Arctic) is probably due to the insensitivity of the passive microwave algorithm to thin ice. Both chart data and passive microwave data show a negative trend in integrated arctic-wide concentration over the period 1979-1994. The difference between the passive microwave and chart trends is statistically significant only in the summer, where it is about 2% per decade steeper in passive microwave data. 5 A comparison of ice-covered area from the NASA Team algorithm with 18 years of Canadian Ice Service charts showed that passive microwave data markedly underestimate ice area by 30% to 40% during spring melt and fall freeze-up, for the Hudson Bay and East Coast regions [Agnew and Howell, 2003]. There is considerable scatter in the differences rather than a consistent pattern. The difference between chart and passive microwave-derived ice areas is greater for the Canadian charts than the U.S. charts. This is likely a reflection of the fact that the U.S. National Ice Center uses passive microwave data when other data are not available (which is often the case for the central Arctic and other remote areas) while the Canadian Ice Service only rarely uses passive microwave data, relying instead on airborne and satellite radar, satellite optical, and visual observations for charts of the Canadian Arctic. These methods detect thin ice, lower concentrations of ice, and flooded ice much better than passive microwave data allows [personal communication, J. Falkingham, Chief of Operations, Canadian Ice Service, December 2002]. Spot checks of the ice edge position using a 15% concentration cutoff against NIC ice charts show that when there is a broad, diffuse ice edge, the NRTSI and NASA Team products sometimes do not detect ice where the concentration can be as high as 60%. When the ice edge is more compact, the 15% concentration cutoff reflects its location fairly well. The large footprint of the 19 GHz channel means that a compact ice edge will be smeared out in passive microwave imagery. A study comparing passive microwave sea ice concentration data with 1-km resolution imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer [Meier, 2005] focuses on the ice edge. Four SSM/I algorithms are used. The work illustrates how algorithms often underestimate concentration. The NASA Team products underestimate concentration by about 10% on average, and by much more in some circumstances. Newer algorithms have been developed that perform better than the NASA Team algorithm. An enhanced version of the NASA Team algorithm, "NT2," incorporates the SSM/I 85 GHz channel and applies a forward-radiative transfer model to correct for weather effects that are exacerbated by use of the 85 GHz channel. This algorithm is the standard algorithm for arctic sea ice concentration retrievals with the AMSR-E instrument [Markus and Dokken, 2002]. So… summarize, and say what is new and different about our comparisons in the next section. Comparisons and Results Sea Ice Area and Extent In the first outline, I had separate sections for the hemispheric comparison and the regional comparisons. But now I think they should be combined, because the sum of the regions is the hemisphere, and all the numbers can go in one table (see Table 1). 6 Let Ak be the area of pixel k, with sea ice concentration Ck. The sea ice area within a region is the sum of AkCk over all pixels in the region. The sea ice extent is the sum of Ak over all pixels for which Ck is above some threshold, such as 15%. In this section we compare sea ice area and extent from the NIC ice charts, NT algorithm, and BT algorithm for nine regions of the northern hemisphere (Fig. X), and the hemisphere as a whole, in different seasons (?). OK, what exactly are we going to do? First we create monthly-average ice charts by averaging together all the weekly charts within a given month. Then we take the monthly-average NT and BT products and convert them to EASE-Grid by nearest-neighbor interpolation (right?). Then we have to reconcile the land masks: EASE-Grid vs. SSMI-to-EASE-interpolated. So we assign land to any pixel that is land in either case (right?). We also have to convert the region mask from SSMI to EASE. Then we can do comparisons by region (or even by pixel – i.e. difference images). Walt wrote: We have a paper coming out in Annals Glaciol., where we looked at regional trends (using enhanced regions) for NT, so could run for the others fairly easily. We also did significance testing, which is probably worth trying to do as well. Great! Did you use an EASE-Grid version of NT? Let’s back up a little bit and consider that we have 3 data sets (NIC, NT, BT). For each data set and each region (10 regions, including the whole northern hemisphere) we have a time series of sea ice area (and repeat all of this for sea ice extent). What do we want to show (in the way of plots) and report (in the way of numbers in a table)? Some possibilities for time series plots: 10 panels (one for each region) with 3 plots per panel (for NIC, NT, BT). But the time series will often be almost on top of each other, I think. Difference plots (NIC-NT, NIC-BT, BT-NT) to show seasonal variation. Plots by season (winter, spring, summer, fall averages). Plots by month (maybe just September and March). Include trend lines on some or all of the plots. Table(s) should report: Means and standard deviations of sea ice area. Means and standard deviations of the differences in sea ice area between data sets. Means and standard deviations of differences by season and maybe by month. Overall trends and seasonal trends. See Table 1 below. 7 Some points to make, not necessarily in this order: (1) In Walt’s sea ice extent plot, we see an increase in NIC extent in 1995 when NIC started using SAR data, which allowed better identification of the ice edge. This is also around the time when NIC transitioned to digital chart production, and began creating regional analyses rather than hemispheric. Also the chart data for 1995-2004 were processed differently than the pre-1995 chart data. So several factors here. (Why do we think the SAR factor is the most important one?) Also the switch to SAR caused rather significant changes in the trend, depending on time period, whereas the PM data sets are more consistent and the changes in trends over the years are due to changes in the ice cover, not changes in the data quality. (2) NIC assigned 10/10 ice concentration (hence 100% in the digitized charts) to the central Arctic during 1976-1986, but 9/10 to 10/10 ice concentration (hence 95% in the digitized charts) before 1976 and after 1986. This accounts for NIC ice area being slightly higher than NT and BT before1986, and then lower from 1987 to 1995 (when the SAR boost kicked in). (3) In general, NIC shows the most ice, then BT, then NT. The biggest differences of NIC minus BT are in the regions where the ice edge is present. These results motivate the analysis in the next section on the ice edge. (4) BT-NT shows the differences in the PM algorithms. How do they compare to the differences NIC-BT and NIC-NT? Can see the switch from SMMR to SSM/I at the end of 1987. (5) Can we explain the seasonal differences, why there is a seasonal cycle in NIC-BT for example? Should we also show some comparisons of weekly NIC charts with corresponding daily PM products, as in Walt’s poster (his Figure 3)? Walt wrote: The charts are produced to be valid on a given day – they interpolate/extrapolate earlier data sources to that day. However, using daily PM isn’t the best, especially for area, because there can be day-to-day changes that aren’t real but are artifacts of weather, surface anomalies, etc. I initially was going to use a 3 or 5 day mean centered on the chart day for PM. But that started to get to be a hassle when you take into account SMMR because SMMR doesn’t have daily data. I’m sure it could be done, I just ran out of time to solve those. OK. If we think some case studies would be a good idea, we could just do them during the SSM/I era when there was daily data. It would take a bit of work though. For the SMMR era we could pick a chart date that coincides with a SMMR daily product, and average the SMMR daily product with the ones from plus-or-minus 2 days. Again it would take some work. Comparison of Ice Edge Note that the definition of the ice edge depends on an arbitrary concentration cutoff in the chart data and PM data, because the pixels are so large that they contain a mix of ice and water, unlike, say, SAR pixels of 100m. 8 This would attempt to quantify what I illustrated in the bottom half of my poster: The ice concentration is generally higher in NIC than in BT near the ice edge. (Again this is monthly average data). Here is the idea. First pick a month, say March. For March the ice edge falls naturally into geographic segments: Sea of Okhotsk; Bering Sea; Baffin Bay / Labrador Sea; south tip of Greenland to Svalbard; Svalbard to Barents Sea. These are the regions 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 of the regional comparison above. For each region, look at the “extent map” like I show in my poster: yellow is where NIC and BT are both > 15%; blue is where NIC > 15% but BT is not; red is where BT > 15% but NIC is not. Calculate the blue area and the red area. Also calculate the length of the ice edge (details needed here). Then divide the blue area and the red area by the length of the ice edge. This gives an average “extent anomaly”, i.e. the average distance by which the NIC ice edge is “farther out” than the BT ice edge (for the blue area), or the BT ice edge is farther out than the NIC ice edge (for the red area). For each region we then have a time series (of Marches, 1979-2004) of extent anomalies relative to the 15% concentration cutoff. We can repeat for other concentration cutoffs. We could do 15%, 20% (suggested by Walt), and 50%. As for other months: we should do September, but of course the ice edge no longer exists in regions 1, 2, and 4. We would use regions 5, 6, and the central Arctic (region 7). I suppose we could do December and June too. And we could repeat the whole thing for the NT data. Then we make some summary statistics and a plot or two to illustrate the results. Walt’s good ideas: One thing to consider is that the charts map the actual ice edge, i.e., the 0% contour. For PM, 15% is often used because it agrees best with the ice edge. Due to the sensor footprint, etc., you can’t define a 0% contour. So it might be worth comparing PM 15% (or other %) to NIC 0% - which PM % provides the best agreement with NIC? Another thing, which may be too much to try to do, but is there a way we might be able to compare diffuse edges with sharp edges? – this probably has a lot to do with what % is best and how accurate in general the PM algorithms are. Maybe use the charts as a baseline (e.g., ice conc within 1-2 pixels of edge of 80-100% is a sharp ice edge, but ice conc within 1-2 pixels of 50% or less is a diffuse ice edge)? Multiyear Ice, First-year Ice, Thin Ice This section is the third column of Walt’s poster, his Figures 3, 4, 5. Describe how the partial concentrations were corrected so they add up to 1. Result: Relative to the charts, maximum PM underestimation of total ice concentration occurs between late June and early August, minimum underestimation at onset of freeze-up. This is explained in terms of PM response to MY, FY, and thin ice as in final paragraph of poster and Fig 5. How to assess the accuracy of MY, FY, and thin ice? For MY ice we can cite the recent GRL paper by Nghiem et al. [2006] where they used QuikScat (QS) data. To actually acquire and use QS data ourselves is probably too much extra work. 9 Walt adds: I didn’t calculate any trends for the partial ice conc., but it doesn’t look like there are any significant trends. This is another area that is new, but there are some issues I think in terms of the consistency of the partial fields. For example, as I think I mentioned, they didn’t generally label a lot of FY as FY, so the sum of the partials doesn’t add up to the total – I had to add the “unclassified” ice to the FY category. I think there’s also potentially some inconsistency in how they transition ice between categories. Conclusions Recap of the chart data set (with reminders about its limitations), say what we did again, and give the main results. Mention that there will be updates to the chart data set. Acknowledgments We acknowledge the far-sighted officers, enlisted personnel, and civilians at the National Ice Center who have made it possible for NIC charts to be published as a research data set. Production of the EASE-Grid climatology was supported by contract N00600-05-P0169 from NIC. Other support came from the National Science Foundation, grant ARC0454912, and by funding from NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) and the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC). References These are directly cut-and-pasted from the on-line documentation, so we will have to check them carefully and delete those that we don’t actually use. Arctic Climatology Project. 2000. 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National Ice Center/Naval Ice Center support to submarine operations Undersea Warfare: Issue 8, pp. 18-21. World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 1970. WMO sea-ice nomenclature= Nomenclature OMM des glaces en mer= (Nomenklatura VMO po morskomu l«du)= Nomenclatura de la OMM del hielo marino. Terminology, codes and illustrated glossary. Geneva: Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization. World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 2000. Sea-ice information services in the world. Geneva : Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization. WMO-574. Add these references: Cavalieri, D., C. Parkinson, P. Gloersen, and H. J. Zwally. 1996, updated 2006. Sea ice concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I passive microwave data, 19782004. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media. Comiso, J. 1999, updated 2005. Bootstrap sea ice concentrations for NIMBUS-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I, 1978-2004. Boulder, CO, USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media. 13 *** Shouldn’t we write this reference as “Fetterer and Fowler 2006”? *** National Ice Center. 2006. National Ice Center Arctic sea ice charts and climatologies in gridded format. Edited and compiled by F. Fetterer and C. Fowler. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media. Francis, J. A., and E. Hunter, 2006: New Insight into the Disappearing Arctic Sea Ice, Eos, Transactions, 87, #46, 509-511. Lindsay, R. W. and J. Zhang, 2006: Assimilation of ice concentration in an ice-ocean model. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 23, 742-749. Nghiem et al 2006 GRL Yu, Y., H. Stern, C. Fowler, and F. Fetterer, 2007: Interannual variability of arctic landfast ice between 1976 and 2004, submitted. 14 Table 1. Regions, Areas, Etc. # Name Area* 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Okhotsk/Japan Bering Sea Hudson Bay Baffin/Labrador Greenland Sea Barents/Kara Central Arctic Canadian Islands Gulf of St. Law. 2.15 2.19 1.10 2.65 2.85 2.46 6.90 0.54 0.58 Northern Hem. X.XX Field 1 Field 2 Etc * millions of square kilometers Parkinson et al. [1999] has 2 tables, one for sea ice extent and one for sea ice area. Each table has the nine regions above, plus the Northern Hemisphere. Each table reports the trends for: Yearly Winter Spring Summer Autumn where each of the above headings has sub-headings: Slope ± standard deviation (103 km2 / year), Significance, %/decade where the significance is either 99, 95, or blank, based on the F-test. For our comparison, we will have table sections for NIC, NT, and BT. For each region and each data set, we could report things like: Mean and standard deviation of sea ice area, 1979-1986 (8 years, decade I). Mean and standard deviation of sea ice area, 1987-1994 (8 years, decade II). Mean and standard deviation of sea ice area, 1995-2004 (10 years, decade III). Mean and standard deviation of differences, NIC-NT, NIC-BT, BT-NT, all decades. Mean and standard deviation of differences by season (winter, spring, summer, fall). Mean and standard deviation of differences for September and March. Trends for the whole time period 1979-2004. Trends for each decade. Repeat all of the above for sea ice extent. 15 FIG 1 HERE Figure 1. Sample digitized ice chart from DATE, showing the total ice concentration for that date. FIG 2(a) HERE FIG 2(b) HERE Figure 2. (a) Ice chart showing monthly-average ice concentration for MONTH/YEAR. (b) SMMR or SSM/I ice concentration product, NT or BT, the monthly average for the same month as the ice chart. Use the same color scale for both (a) and (b). Figure X. This kind of figure (NT minus BT sea ice area in the central Arctic Ocean) could be used to illustrate a couple of points: (1) there are consistent seasonal differences between NT and BT; (2) the transition from SMMR to SSM/I is evident in 1988. 16 1 2 7 8 6 5 3 4 9 Figure X. Regions used in analysis of sea ice concentration. See Table 1 for names and statistics. 17