3.4 Assessment of impacts of climate change on coastal urban centres and
ecosystems for community resilience-building and ecosystem-based
adaptation, with a focus on urban environments in mega-deltas.
In building resilience, the UNEP Climate Change Strategy (2008) focuses on promoting
adaptation measures and building institutional capacity among the world’s most
vulnerable people. Around 150 million people live in areas within one meter of the high
tide level; 250 million live within five meters of high tide (USAID 2009). Occupying
marginal lands, some of the world’s poorest live in marginal urban areas, close to
beaches vulnerable to flooding and erosion, near sites prone to landslides, or close to
polluted land or unstable structures that would be quickly destroyed with an extreme
weather event.
Some of the most vulnerable areas to the impacts of climate change (outlined in the
UNEP Climate Change Strategy and discussed at World Ocean Congress in Indonesia
(2009)) are intensely populated urban centres, in particular, SIDS and low lying coastal
areas and mega-deltas in Asia and Africa. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (2007):
‘By the 2080s, many millions more people than today are projected to experience
floods every year due to sea level rise. The numbers affected will be largest in the
densely populated and low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa while small islands
are especially vulnerable.’
Asian and African mega-delta areas are particularly vulnerable due to large populations,
high exposure to sea level rise, storm surge and river flooding. The densely populated
Asian and African mega-deltas of rivers including the Yangtze (China), GangesBrahmaputra (Bangladesh), Mekong (Cambodia), Irrawaddy (Myanmar), Nile (Egypt),
and Niger (Africa), are at greatest risk of experiencing flooding events with changes in
climate. Therefore, providing support to such vulnerable mega-delta areas is the focus
for this project.
Traditionally, the management approaches to highly vulnerable mega-deltas have
focused on land use planning and urban design. Coastal Vulnerability and Adaptation
(V&A) assessment methods and tools, utilised through the National Communication
process to the UNFCCC (and other drivers for V&A studies), focus on establishing the
current physical condition of the coast (including delta areas), considering the variability
of each condition with changing natural environmental factors, and evaluating the likely
responses. Outcomes from these and similar assessment include incorporating options
such as retreat, defence, accommodation or coastal land buy-back, into urban planning
policies.
More recently, there has been a movement in coastal V&A towards complementing
specific tools with the application of broader V&A frameworks, incorporating local-scale,
bottom up participatory approaches. Experience from previous experiences with disaster
risk reduction (DRR), such as the Asian Tsunami in 2004 or Hurricane Katrina in 2005,
suggests that practical support to those charged with the management of ecosystems
with respect to ecosystem service provision is far less developed than that for urban
planners. Coastal and marine ecosystems provide critical services as natural buffers to
existing climatic events, helping to reduce the severity of impact on coastal cities from
such events. It is widely recognised that such ecosystem services will be critical in
reducing climate change vulnerability in the future. It is also important to stress that in
addition to the vital provision of DRR services, coastal ecosystems within, or adjacent to,
urban settings are critical in sustaining livelihoods. Therefore, ensuring a holistic
assessment of ecosystem services to enhance resilience to climate change is an
essential component of the adaptation process, particularly for highly vulnerable megadelta areas.
In this context, this project aims to provide support to urban ecosystem service
managers through a coordinated ecosystem-based approach to adaptation, known as
Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), complementing the work to be undertaken in SIDS
as part of project five (see section 3.5)
Project implementation will be in partnership with UN-HABITAT, under the umbrella of
the UNEP/UN-HABITAT Partnership Framework (2008-2013). This partnership builds on
the relative strengths of the two agencies and their long-standing success in working
together on the Sustainable Cities Programme (SCP), a programme established in the
early 1990s to build capacities in urban environmental planning and management.
The UNEP/UN-HABITAT partnership also builds on the relative engagement of each
agency with countries and regions. UN-HABITAT is one of the few UN bodies that works
with organizations across all levels. For example, UN-HABITAT works with local
governments to build, manage, plan and finance cities without slums, that are liveable
places for all, and which do not pollute the environment or deplete natural resources.
UNEP engages strongly with regional organisations responsible for coastal and marine
management through national focal points, usually in environment and natural resources
departments. This well-formed network will allow the project to successfully and quickly
engage with key stakeholders at regional, national and local levels. UN-HABITAT is also
an active member of the Cities for Climate Protection Programme managed by the
International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI).
In particular, this project will complement the existing UN-HABITAT Cities in Climate
Change Initiative, though focusing on adaptation of ecological systems and services,
rather than built infrastructure (the current focus of the Cities in Climate Change
Initiative). It is anticipated that an initial impact and adaptation assessment method or
framework will be developed through the Cities in Climate Change Initiative. Depending
on the final output, this method/framework would be adopted and/or refined for the
current project.
The project will be implemented through the following main components:

Review and assess the status of the UN-HABITAT Cities in Climate Change
Initiative with respect to coastal urban centres in mega-deltas, including analysis
of lessons learned from the project to date, together with latest innovations in
climate change impact assessment methods/tools, developed specifically for
marine and coastal ecosystems. The status of urban impact assessments,
undertaken through UNFCCC processes and other organisations, will also be
reviewed.

Develop selection criteria for choosing demonstration or assessment sites. These
criteria are likely to include consideration of UN-HABITAT assessments
undertaken to date, assessments undertaken by other organisations, including
national governments, and a range of bio-physical and socio-economic criteria.
The selection criteria will be jointly developed with the SIDA Africa project to
ensure alignment with the demonstration or assessment sites chosen in Africa.

EbA Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) assessment of selected urban centres
globally, cognizant of links to other projects within the current funding submission
and in consultation across UNEP and partner organizations. It is anticipated that
a small number (two to four) of carefully chosen demonstration/assessment sites
will be subject to in-depth analysis. It is anticipated that the sites will be
geographically distributed, with at least one in Asia and one in Latin America. It is
highly recommended to focus on at least one mega-delta in Asia or Africa. The
UNEP/UN-HABITAT partnership will allow engagement with urban management
authorities, NGOs, business and the community, at municipal and provincial
level, as well as environmental managers and NGOs, operating at the national
and regional levels. This will allow critical insights to be learned from a diverse
range of key stakeholders.

Synthesis of the EbA coastal mega-delta urban V&A assessments through
workshops and expert review undertaken through a network expected to include
experts across UNEP and the broader UN system, independent experts and
selected key stakeholders.

Development of methods and tools (assessment, planning, capacity building and
adaptation mainstreaming tools) applicable to coastal urban mega-delta V&A in a
diverse set of bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, and their broad
dissemination through UNEP, UN-HABITAT and other partner organisations.
In partnering with UN-HABITAT, UNEP seeks to complement existing projects and
programmes of work, and to develop of synergies across related initiatives in other
agencies in the UN family.