Year 6 Teaching Sequence spring D3 – Probability (two days)
Prerequisites:
 Describe the occurrence of familiar events using the language of chance or likelihood (see Year 5 teaching sequence
D3 and oral and mental starter bank D3)
Overview of progression:
Children play a game with uneven numbers of red and blue cubes discussing why the game is not fair. They make predictions
of how many times they might draw out a cube of a particular colour based on the number of each colour of cube in the bag.
They roll a 1-6 dice lots of times and discuss what they notice. They then predict the numbers of times that given events
will occur (e.g. odd number, number greater than 3) and test out their ideas. Children begin to find a probability and record
it as a fraction.
Note that the main focus of teaching probability in the primary school is the language associated with it, such as degrees of
likelihood, and so it is important that children are encouraged to use this vocabulary when describing the activities.
Watch out for children who think that if the results aren’t exactly as their predictions, that their prediction was wrong.
Children need to understand that there is a difference between the theory of outcomes and the actual experimental
results.
© Original teaching sequence copyright Hamilton Trust, who give permission for it to be adapted as wished by individual users.
Y6 Maths TS_D3 – Spr – 2days
Objectives:
 Describe and predict outcomes from data using the language of chance and likelihood
Whole class
Group activities
Paired/indiv practice
Resources
Place five red cubes and 10 blue cubes in a
bag, showing chn as you do so. Ask a child to
close their eyes and draw out a cube. If it’s
red you win a point, if it’s blue I win a point.
Replace the cube and repeat another 19 times.
Draw a tally chart on the board to keep a
record of the results.
Oh look, I win!
Let’s play again. What colour do you want to
be? Why? Discuss how the game isn’t fair.
There were more blue cubes than red cubes in
the bag, so there was a greater chance of
drawing out a blue cube, which is why I won!
How many of each should we have to play a fair
game? Take up one of the chn’s suggestions
and repeat. If we carried on going until we’d
drawn 100 cubes, what do you think the
results would be? What if we did this 1000
times? Discuss how the results are unlikely to
be exactly 50:50 but that the more the game
is played, the more the results might ‘even
out’.
Group of 4-5 children
Place five red cubes, three blue cubes
and two yellow cubes in a bag.
Write the following events in Post-it®
notes:
Yellow,
Blue,
Red,
Yellow or red
Blue or yellow
Blue or red
Black
Blue, red or yellow.
Ask chn to help you to arrange the
Post-it® notes in order of likelihood.
Give each pair a bag and cubes as above.
Ask them to draw out a cube & replace
it 20 times, recording the results in a
tally chart. Collate the group's results
and use them to discuss their
predictions about the events, writing
the number of times each event
occurred on the Post-it®.
Easier: Events:
Yellow,
Blue,
Red,
Black
Chn place four red, two blue and
two yellow cubes in a bag. Chn
discuss in pairs how many times
they might draw each colour
during 20 draws. They take it in
turns to draw out a cube without
looking. They keep a tally chart of
their results. After 20 draws
they compare the results against
their predictions.
Easier: Chn place 4 red and 2 blue
cubes in a bag and then carry out
the activity as above.
Harder: They change the
proportions of the three colours
and repeat.
 Red, blue and
yellow cubes,
bags
 Post-it® notes
© Original teaching sequence copyright Hamilton Trust, who give permission for it to be adapted as wished by individual users.
Y6 Maths TS_D3 – Spr – 2days
Give each pair a dice. We’re all going to roll
the dice. Discuss the probability of each
number coming up. Which number do you think
might come up more often? Is 6 hard to get?
Ask each pair to roll the dice 20 times
recording their results in a tally chart.
As a class collate all the pairs’ results. What
do you notice? Why do you think that is? The
chance of getting a two is one in six; we might
expect one throw in every six to be a two. We
can write the probability as a fraction. Record
1/6 on the board, explaining that each number
has a one in six chance of coming up, in other
words a sixth of the results will be a 2 for
example.
What do you think the chance of getting a 4
will be?
What do you think the chance of getting a 5
or a 6 might be? Discuss how this is two out of
six, 2/6, or a third, in other words we might
expect a third of the results to be 2s or 3s.
Yellow, blue or red
Group of 4-5 children
Give each child a copy of an octagonal
spinner (see resources).
Write 1 in four sections, 2 in two
sections and 3 in two sections. Place a
pencil in the middle and spin a paper clip
around it. Which number has it landed
on? If I do this lots of times, which
number do you think will come up most
times? If I spun the paper clip 20
times, how many times do you think 1
might come up? And 2? And 3? Ask chn
to write the numbers the same amount
of times on their spinners but in
different places and spin the paper clip
20 times. Compare their results.
Work with a partner to write numbers
1, 2 and 3 on your spinner such that 1
and 2 are equally likely to come up and 3
is least likely. Test out your ideas.
Can we write numbers 1, 2 and 3 such
that there is an equal chance of each
coming up? Why not?
Easier: Use a hexagonal spinner (see
resources). Write 1 in three spaces, 2
in two spaces and 1 in the other space.
Ask chn to make a spinner such that all
numbers are equally likely to come up.
They test out their ideas.
Chn work in pairs to choose an
events card (see Activity sheet),
predict how many times they
think that event will happen in 24
rolls of the dice. They roll the
dice 24 times, recording their
results in a tally chart.
Afterwards they write a sentence
comparing their results with their
predictions.
They choose other cards and
repeat.
They choose two of their chosen
events and record the probability
as a fraction.
Harder: Chn also think of a
different event that might occur
8 times out of 24 throws, and an
event that might happen 16 times
out of 24. They test out their
ideas. They record the probability
(written as a fraction) for each
event.
© Original teaching sequence copyright Hamilton Trust, who give permission for it to be adapted as wished by individual users.
 1-6 dice
 Activity sheet
of Events
cards (see
resources)
 Octagonal
spinners (see
resources)
 Hexagonal
spinner (see
resources)
 Paper clips
Y6 Maths TS_D3 – Spr – 2days