Rainfed crop production and its association with precipitation,
temperature and sea surface temperature anomalies
Mohammad Bannayan*a, Sajad Sadeghi Lotfabadia, Sarah Sanjania, and Azadeh
Mohammadianb
Abstract
Climate variability adversely impacts crop production and impose a major constraint on
farming planning mostly under rainfed conditions across the world. Considering the
recent advances in climate science, many studies are trying to provide a reliable basis for
climate and subsequently agricultural productions forecast. The ElNiño-Southern
Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) is one of the principle sources of interannual climatic
variability. In Iran, mostly in northeast, rainfed cereal production shows a high annual
variability. This study investigated any possible association between precipitation,
temperature and SST indices at both annual and monthly basis with historically observed
rainfed crop yields (1983-2005) of both barley and wheat in northeast of Iran. Our results
showed that crop yields association with climate factors and SST indices at different
locations showed differently. For south of the study area as a very hot location, the
maximum temperature showed the limiting and determining factor for crop yields and
temperature variability resulted in crop yield variability. For the north of the study area
NINO 3.4 indicated a clear association trend with crop yields. For the central location,
NAO provided more solid basis in relationship between crop yields and climate factors.
a
Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
Faculty of Agriculture
P.O. Box 91775-1163
Mashhad, IRAN
b
Climate Research Center
Khorasan
Mashhad, IRAN
*Corresponding author
Voice: (+98) - 511- 879-5616
Fax: (+98) - 511- 878-7430
Email: bannayan@um.ac.ir
mobannayan@yahoo.com