Meteorology 171B: Synoptic Weather Analysis and Forecasting
San Jose State University
Spring 2010
Mike Voss
voss@met.sjsu.edu
Lecture Th
3:00 – 3:50 pm
Office/Hours: Th 12:00-2:00 pm
Lab
T
12:00 – 2:45 pm
(408) 924-5204
Analysis MWR 2:00-2:50 pm
Duncan Hall 614
Course Website: http://www.met.sjsu.edu/faculty/met171b.html
Course Description
Continuation of synoptic meteorology topics covered in 171A, covered through both theoretical
and applied means. Students will be expected to synthesize mathematical concepts with
observational analysis to understand the physical basis for applied forecasting of atmospheric
motions in the real world. While advanced synoptic meteorology will be covered, we will
devote lecture time to the influence of large-scale climate modes on synoptic weather patterns. In
addition, localized weather phenomenon created by specific synoptic conditions will be
examined such as Lake Effect Snows, Orographic precipitation, and Severe Weather. This course
will also make use of data acquisition, manipulation and display using GEMPAK as a means of
better visualizing and analyzing datasets not only for use in the laboratory section of this course,
but also to add to your employable skill set. Real world applications of material learned will be
used in the weather briefing section of the course.
Course Goals and Student Learning Objectives
The main objectives of this course are for you as a student to achieve the following:
(1) A deeper understanding of how dynamics and mathematics can be useful in
understanding the evolution of weather systems.
(2) Be able to forecast the weather with JUST analysis maps.
(3) Proficiency (…or something resembling it) in forecasting by applying concepts from
lecture and lab to real world examples.
(4) Ability to design and implement and operational forecasting tool
(5) Understand how climate regimes/modes modulate synoptic scale weather patterns
Prerequisites
MET 100W, MET 121 A/B, MET 171A with grades of C- or better.
Logistics
Required Text
Mid-Latitude Weather Systems, T.N. Carlson, 1998, 507p (AMS website cost $32-$52)
Supplementary Text
Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey, Wallace and Hobbs, 2nd edition, 2006
An Introductory in Dynamic Meteorology, Holton, 4th edition, 2004
Articles and Supplemental Handouts will be provided in class and/or online
Assessment
Tests (a midterm and a final):30%, Lab Exercises: 17%, Project: 20%, Weather Briefing:33%
Lab Exercises: About seven in class laboratory exercises are assigned. These labs will draw
from lecture material and will utilize near real-time or recent notorious synoptic conditions.
Labs will mostly consist of computer analysis using GEMPAK. All labs will be due at the
beginning of lecture the week following the assignment unless otherwise indicated.
Project: Each student will complete an applied meteorology project related to synoptic weather
analysis. You will employ shell scripting, unix command tools, GEMPAK, and or GNUPLOT to
create an operational realtime forecasting or verification product. We will develop these in stages
as follows: 1) Idea – must be approved by instructor, 2) Design – a flowchart of the steps
necessary to make your idea a reality, 3) Implementation – this is the real part, which takes time,
4) Roll Out – make your product operational, 5) Presentation – show others what you did and
how you did it. Project must be approved by Mr Voss.
Possible Project Areas:
1) Precipitable water plots, total, upper vs lower.
2) Snow levels plots from model fields
3) Unix Bufkit, create detailed realtime model soundings
4) Interpolated precip for CWFC sites and California sites
5) New generation of Northern Hemisphere plots – 6 hourly
6) Ensemble plots
7) Short Range Ensemble plots (SREF)
8) Correct 3, 6, and 12 hourly precip totals for GFS maps
9) New generation of Cross Section maps using high res models
Grading Scale:
93-100% A
90-92% A88-90% B+
83-87% B
80-82% B78-80% C+
73-77% C
70-72% C-
68-70% D+
63-67% D
60-62% D>60% F
Preliminary Schedule
Updated Schedule will be posted on course webpage
Week
1
2
Lab
Date
1-26
2-2
Laboratory
3
2-09
January Storm
Work on Project
Proposal and
Design
Proposal Due
4
2-16
Project Day
2-18
Orographic forcing and lee side
cyclogenesis
Cyclone Development
5
1-23
TBD
2-25
Ageostrophic Motion
6
3-2
Project Day
3-4
Jet Streaks
7
3-09
Jet Streaks
3-11
8
9
3-16
3-23
Project Day
Comet Module
10
11
4-06
4-13
Fronts
Project Day
3-18
3-25
4-01
4-08
4-15
12
4-20
Project Day
4-22
13
4-27
4-29
14
15
5-04
5-11
Severe
Environment
Project Day
Class
Presentations
Atmospheric Rivers, Orographic
Precipitation
Midterm (weeks 1-7)
Fronts, Frontal Analysis
BREAK
Special Topics: Lake Effect Snows
Climate Modes: El Nino-Southern
Oscillation and PNA
Climate Modes: Madden-Julian
Oscillation
Synoptic conditions for Severe
Weather
Scheduled Final: TBD
Lect
Date
1-28
2-4
Lecture Topic
Reading
Review and Introduction
Development Equations:
Trenberth, Sutcliffe, and Petterson
Chapter 8
2-11
5-06
5-13
Course Review
Chapter 9
Chapter
10
Chapter
14
Chapter
15
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
University Policy
Campus policy in compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act: If you need course
adaptations or accommodations because of a disability, please make an appointment with me as
soon as possible.
Academic Integrity: Your own commitment to learning, as evidenced by your enrollment at San
José State University, and the University’s Academic Integrity Policy requires you to be honest
in all your academic course work. Faculty members are required to report all infractions to the
Office of Judicial Affairs. The policy on academic integrity can be found at
http://sa.sjsu.edu/judicial_affairs/index.html.