Aquaculture in the coastal zone: pressures, interactions and externalities David Whitmarsh and Gianna Palmieri CEMARE, University of Portsmouth 1. Introduction Aquaculture worldwide has grown rapidly, but there is concern over its environmental impact and sustainability. Within Europe there are quite marked regional variations in the intensity of marine aquaculture (Table 1), and the fact that this occurs in areas where there is already pressure on coastal resources from competing activities suggests that the scope for conflict is considerable. In this paper, the DPSIR (Driving forces – Pressure – State – Impact - Response) framework is used to explore the issues and to suggest policy solutions. In formulating policy it needs to be understood that marine aquaculture not only creates externalities but is also the ‘victim’ of external costs generated elsewhere by other activities in the CZ. The next section reviews the evidence relating to externalities caused by marine environmental disturbance, and provides the context for the more specific focus on aquaculture which follows. The contextual discussion is important for two reasons. Firstly, it highlights the fact that externalities associated with the exploitation of marine and coastal resources typically arise from multiple activities, amongst which aquaculture is but one. To study aquaculture in isolation is therefore misleading. Secondly, in order to gauge whether aquaculture causes environmental damage to the marine environment it is helpful to have knowledge of what is at risk; in other words, we need to know how valuable marine resources are and to what extent that value is impacted by fish farming. Several published studies have attempted to place an economic value the marine environment, and these will be reviewed. 2. Externalities caused by marine environmental disturbance: an overview The marine environment provides goods and services, which support economic activities and the welfare of individuals directly. These resources include commodities such as fish and raw materials, and services ranging from nutrient cycling, disturbance regulation, and biological control, to recreational and cultural services. Many of these resources are unmarketed, which means that no property rights are assigned over their use and that there are no markets reflecting their scarcity. This means that users can make resources scarce for others but this is not reflected in any change in their cost of access to the resources. This market failure is called an externality. In economic theory a negative externality is said to occur when the production or consumption decisions of an economic agent have an impact on the utility or profit of a third party in an unintended way and the generator of the impact offers no compensation to the affected party. What happens is that some of the costs of private production or consumption decisions are ‘external’ to the economic agents making those decisions and, consequently, are not taken into account in their decision process. Externalities may affect a production activity by modifying the efficiency of the production process and consequently its profitability, or affect the satisfaction (utility) of a consumer. In 1 the case of the marine environment, for example, an oil spill may reduce the yield for fishermen and fish farmers and the enjoyment of the marine landscape by visitors. In order to take into account the impact on human welfare of changes in the quantity or quality of environmental assets, it is necessary to assign a monetary value to them. Many criticisms have arisen among those who consider such an approach unethical, but this is to miss the point. Monetary valuation is essentially a means of measuring the social importance of the marine environment in a way that enables choices to be made. To take an aquaculture example, deciding whether or not to impose (say) an effluent charge on salmon growers as a way of ‘internalising’ the externalities of nutrient release logically requires the decision-maker to know what economic costs such emissions impose on society. If it were shown that nitrate and phosphate release from fish farms represented a significant external cost to society, the legitimacy of imposing such a measure on the polluters would be upheld. Conversely, if the external cost were estimated to be trivial, the legitimacy of imposing an effluent charge would be called into question. Monetary valuation is thus a way of bringing the environment into the reckoning of cost-benefit analysis, which may then be used by decisionmakers to evaluate policy options in a rational and consistent manner. This raises the question of how easy it is in practice to estimate such values, and what progress has been made in valuing the environment. To date, empirical studies related to the valuation of marine resources have focused primarily on wetlands or on particular resources (such as mangrove and coral) adjacent to the coast, and only rarely on ocean resources. A study by Costanza et al. (1997) on the value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital estimates the value of marine systems to be US$20.9 trillion annually (63% of total ecosystem services and natural capital) within which coastal systems contribute some 50%. Although these are quite crude estimates and the authors themselves point out the limitations of their study, what is clear is that marine resources have an economic value, which can be affected by environmental disturbance of anthropogenic origin. This is demonstrated more clearly in the case studies discussed in the Appendix, which look in detail at the estimates of economic value associated with three types of environmental impact: oil spills, nutrient enrichment, and ecosystem degradation arising from mangrove and coral reef destruction. 3. Interactions between aquaculture and the marine environment Aquaculture is affected by the externalities created by other activities, and is itself a contributor to such externalities. In this section we look more closely at these interactions and their socio-economic significance. The key linkages are illustrated in Figure 1, which is based on the DPSIR framework. We may start by considering the operating performance of commercial aquaculture in terms of a number of standard indicators (e.g. productivity, costs, prices and profits), which for a given production system are determined by the state of technology and the prevailing economic conditions. If these conditions alter, production from the aquaculture sector will change as firms respond to market opportunities and pressures. As Figure 1 suggests, operating performance may be impacted by various external events. Some of these can be classed as either totally or partially anthropogenic (e.g. acute or chronic pollution, ‘red tides’ linked with eutrophication), while others are 2 caused by natural hazards (e.g. storms). Our concern is with the former, where experience suggests that such events can be financially ruinous to individual fish farmers and to the sector as a whole. The Amoco Cadiz oil tanker disaster in 1978 caused serious losses to the Brittany oyster farming industry, estimated at 107 million FF (= US $26 million) at 1978 equivalent values (Grigalunas, 1986), while the more recent Prestige incident in 2002/3 is reckoned to have led to a drop in the annual production value of Galician aquaculture (mussels and turbot) of approximately 9 million euros (Garza-Gil, 2005, in press). In another high-profile case, the Exxon Valdez oil spill off the coast of Alaska in 1989, published statistics strongly suggest that aquaculture was adversely affected by the incident. Figure 2 shows that the annual value of farmed oyster production by the US in the Pacific NW region fell sharply in 1989, due mainly to very low prices. While there were no doubt other factors at work, it would be remarkable if the events of that year (e.g. concern over the seafood edibility) had not had some impact on oyster markets. As well as acute pollution incidents such as oil spills, chronic pollution has also been shown to be damaging to aquaculture. This is well illustrated by the effects of organotins on shellfish, a particularly noteworthy case being the culture of oyster (Crassostrea gigas) in Arcachon Bay (France) where reproductive failure and shell deformation caused by the presence of TBT resulted in very heavy financial losses by the shellfish industry in the early 1980s (Santillo et al., 2001). A final example of how external events may adversely impact on aquaculture concerns harmful algal blooms (HABs), which in the US are estimated to have caused losses to commercial fisheries (capture and culture) of between $13 m. and $18 m. annually (Anderson et al. 2000). The financial burden of these external events arises in different ways. To start with, and perhaps most obviously, there may be biological injury (e.g. in the form of increased mortality or reduced growth) which in the extreme may cause a fish farm to cease production completely. A more common situation, however, is where a regulatory body responds to a pollution incident by closing a fishery and banning the sale of the product. In such cases there may no biological injury per se, but the cost to the aquaculture producer in the form of lost revenue is nonetheless real. The financial impact of pollution incidents may also be felt where concern over the edibility of the product translates into a fall in consumer demand, as happened to Shetland salmon growers following the Braer oil tanker disaster in 1993. Water quality differences can impose indirect costs on producers, the best example being the need for shellfish growers in areas not meeting the Class A standard (< 300 faecal coliforms or 230 E.Coli per 100g) to undertake compensatory investment in order to make their product saleable. In the UK this includes a requirement that shellfish undergo purification or relaying, which for Class C areas (< 60,000 faecal coliforms or 46,000 E.Coli per 100 g) must be a period of at least 2 months (Younger and Kershaw, 2004). The final way in which external events may impact financially on aquaculture is through risk management costs, most obviously via insurance or else through physical precautions to reduce the probability of harmful incidents occurring (e.g. siting farms in low risk areas, vaccination of stock, etc.). Indeed, given that aquaculture is perceived by underwriters as a very high risk activity (Secretan, 2003, p. 11) , such precautions are generally a condition for obtaining insurance cover. Indicative figures for the insurance premia charged for specific risks (‘named perils’) that may cause stock mortality in aquaculture are given in Table 2. 3 Aquaculture may itself create externalities via its impact on the marine environment (Figure 1), and though it is not always possible to quantify the importance of these effects in monetary terms there is little doubt that they can often be significant for human welfare. One of the most clearly demonstrated negative effects of aquaculture (i.e. external costs) is the degradation or loss of critical marine habitat, which may in turn lead to a reduction in biodiversity. The best documented example of this is the conversion of mangrove swamps to shrimp farming and the consequent removal of an important nursery area for juvenile fish. Barbier and Strand (1998) estimate the effects of changes in mangrove area on the shrimp fisheries of Campeche State (Mexico) based on a production function methodology, and using data for the decade 1980-90 find that a 1 km2 decline in mangrove area leads to a loss of 14.4 tonnes of commercial shrimp harvest worth some US$ 144,000. Though mangrove deforestation over that period was comparatively small, the authors point out that in the future this is likely to worsen due to urban expansion and mariculture development (p. 163). In other words, shrimp aquaculture has the potential to impose significant external costs on society by indirectly causing a decline on the harvest of capture fisheries. Habitat degradation caused by mariculture may also result from farming species other than shrimp, however, and we would point to the evidence which reveals the growing threat that cage aquaculture poses for seagrass meadows in the Mediterranean (Holmer et al., 2003). Sedimentation of waste products from fish farms has been shown to adversely impact the growth of seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) in the vicinity of sea cages, and given that seagrass is an important source of food and habitat for several varieties of marine organisms it seems likely that fish farms located inappropriately close to P. oceanica meadows may have indirect negative effects on the biodiversity and productive capacity of the marine environment. This is likely to translate into an external cost, most obviously a reduction in the harvest of capture fisheries, though the magnitude of this loss is as yet unknown. Aquaculture may engender a number of other negative externalities, some of which may impact on commercial fisheries whilst others may be felt by other users of the coastal zone (e.g. tourists) or by society at large. There are at least two mechanisms by which fisheries are affected. To start with, it is argued that growth in demand for fishmeal used in intensive aquaculture increases pressure on stocks such as anchovy, sandeel, etc., with potentially adverse effects on the production of edible supplies from marine capture fisheries (Hannesson, 2003). The problem, however, is at least as much to do with the way capture fisheries are managed as with the growth of aquaculture per se. Where fisheries are effectively open-access, the over-exploitation of stocks caused by increased demand for fishmeal is likely to be more severe. A second way in which aquaculture may impose external costs on capture fisheries is through the spread of disease and infestations, a particularly controversial example being the transmission of sea lice from salmon cages to the wild salmon stocks. While the evidence for this is still a matter of dispute, if the link were to be established it would be potentially serious in socio-economic as well as ecological terms. Apart from its impact on fish stocks, cage aquaculture may affect the coastal environment in ways which reduce its amenity value, possibly with implications for tourism. One way is through reductions in water quality as a result of nutrient enrichment and eutrophication, another is through visual intrusion due to the inappropriate siting of 4 sea cages. The external cost of eutrophication from coastal cage salmon farming in the early 1990s has been estimated using Swedish data to be between 50 and 100 SEK (= US$ 6.4 and US$ 12.8) per kg of nitrogen (Folke et al 1994), figures which it is claimed would make salmon farming unsustainable if added to the cost of production (i.e. internalised). Though this particular study has been severely criticised for its methodology (Black et al. 1997), it is worth noting that an economic assessment of eutrophication in the Baltic based on a Willingness to Pay approach (Gren et al. 2000) has estimated the external cost of nutrient release (N) from all sources to be 62 SEK per kg N and hence of a similar order of magnitude to that found by Folke et al. This finding might appear to support the claim that salmon farming is unsustainable, but it should be acknowledged that the external costs of nutrient release in a water body such as the Baltic are likely to be higher than in less eutrophic areas. Indeed, evidence showing that nutrients released by fish farms situated in oligotrophic waters may increase productivity in local capture fisheries (Machias et al. 2004) strongly implies that in such circumstances the externalities of cage aquaculture may be positive rather than negative. 4. Institutional responses and policy implications The DPSIR framework illustrated in Figure 1 suggests that the response to the externalities of aquaculture will come from a variety of institutions, most obviously from government departments or agencies in the form of controls on fish farms intended to mitigate or prevent potential environmental damage. The regulations that currently apply to European aquaculture, which for some countries imposes quite severe restraints on fish farms, is clear evidence that national governments are not indifferent to such risks (Fernandes et al. 2000, Read and Fernandes 2003). The institutional response may also come from other bodies and stakeholder groups, and it is worth noting that consumers are increasingly being called upon to make ‘informed choices’ when they purchase seafood according to a set of environmental criteria. As well as established ecolabelling and certification schemes such as that operated by the Marine Stewardship Council, information is now available to consumers to enable them evaluate fisheries products using an environmental ranking system. This approach has lately been pioneered by the Blue Ocean Institute and applied to farmed fish sold in the US, with species awarded a score based on their supposed environmental impact (Table 3). A further type of response may come from commercial firms linked with the supply side of aquaculture, for example by the provision of pollution-abatement technologies and inputs that are environmentally less damaging (e.g. altering the nutritional composition of pelleted feed to include less fishmeal). These responses may not, however, be sufficient to address the problems suffered by aquaculture or caused by it. Within the DPSIR framework, the ways institutions respond is a function of the information that they receive, and if that information is inadequate or unbalanced the response will misdirected. The messages emanating from some of the environmental groups concerning the supposed environmental harm caused by aquaculture testifies to the fact that information in this area is far from objective, and if such messages are listened to and acted upon they carry the risk that decisions made by government agencies or consumers may be inappropriate. These considerations underscore the important role of performance indicators, chosen and constructed so that unbiased and essential information can be communicated to policy makers. 5 Table 1: Regional variations in the intensity of coastal aquaculture Country Denmark Germany (inc. ex-GDR) Greece Spain France Ireland Italy Cyprus Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovenia Sweden United Kingdom Croatia Turkey Iceland Norway Faroe Islands (DK) Total value of marine aquaculture production (Thous €) Value of production per km of coastline (Thous. €) All fishery products All fishery products 16,166 20,179 304,663 253,148 413,537 95,485 181,946 9,766 3,504 78,042 36,319 533 4,151 418,256 13,971 159,571 9,256 1,183,527 165,997 Finfish 16,147 (No data) 292,205 157,745 40,460 53,862 117,514 8,593 3,504 (No data) 14,534 399 3,292 391,868 12,852 158,606 9,175 1,182,473 165,997 2.2 8.4 22.3 51.0 120.7 65.9 23.9 15.1 17.8 173.0 20.3 11.4 1.3 33.7 2.4 22.2 1.9 47.1 148.6 Finfish 2.2 n/k 21.4 31.8 11.8 37.2 15.5 13.3 17.8 n/k 8.1 8.6 1.0 31.5 2.2 22.0 1.8 47.0 148.6 Note: Figures refer to 2003. Source: Calculated from data published in Eurostat New Cronos Database and CIA The World Factbook 6 Table 2: Aquaculture insurance rates for offshore production systems Named peril Bass / Bream Salmon / Char Pollution (as defined below) 0.40 0.50 Malicious acts and theft 0.25 0.20 Predation or physical damage by predators 0.30 0.40 Storm, lightning, structural failure, etc. 0.80 0.90 Freezing, supercooling and ice damage 0.10 0.50 De-oxygenation due to competing biological activity 0.60 0.80 Change in water chemistry (inc. pH and salinity) 0.50 0.50 Disease 0.70 0.75 Notes: (i) (ii) Rates apply to the value of the fish stock, the standard method of assessment being the costs incurred in growing fish to market size. Pollution is typically defined as ‘the presence of any foreign substance or material of a toxic nature that causes mortality or results in a total loss of market value’. (Secretan, 2003, p. 25) Source: adapted from Secretan (2003) 7 Table 3: Environmental ranking of seafood: the Blue Ocean Institute Scoring system Fishery product Farmed fish sold in the US (selected species) Species Environmental score Catfish Ictalurus punctatus 2.35 Hard clam Mercenaria mercenaria 3.05 Blue mussel Mytilus edulis 3.30 Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas 2.80 Rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss 2.15 Atlantic salmon Salmo salar 0.95 Bay scallop Argopecten irradians 2.75 Shrimp (US) Litopenaeus vannamei 2.30 Shrimp (imported) Penaeus spp. 0.55 Tilapia Cichlidae family 2.30 Note: The overall score is based on 5 separate environmental criteria, covering (i) Inherent operational risks (ii) Feed (iii) Pollution (iv) Risks to other species (v) Ecological effects. The maximum value of the score on any of these criteria and overall is 4.0. (See the Blue Ocean Institute website for full details of the scoring methodology). Source: http://www2.blueocean.org/ Retrieved September 2005 8 Figure 1: Economy – environment interactions associated with aquaculture Operating performance of aquaculture Productivity Costs Prices Profits Controls on fish farms Consumer demand Technical innovation Responding institutions Ministries and agencies Research organisations Environmental bodies Consumers Feed manufacturers Equipment suppliers Externalaties External events ‘Accidents’ (e.g. oil spills) Chemical pollution Algal blooms Natural hazards (e.g. storms) State of the marine environment Critical marine habitat Biodiversity Wild fish stocks Water quality Socio-economic impacts Competition for ocean space Incomes (e.g. fishing, tourism) Amenity values Edible quality of farmed fish Human health Supplies from wild fisheries Public attitudes 9 Farmed oyster production by the US from the Pacific NW region - total value 40000 1000 35000 900 800 Price (€ / tonne) 30000 Value (€ x 1000) Farmed oyster production by the US from the Pacific NW region - prices 25000 20000 15000 10000 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 5000 0 0 1984 1989 1994 1999 1984 1989 1994 1999 Figure 2: Evidence for the effects of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill incident on aquaculture 10 Appendix: Effects on social welfare of marine environmental disturbance of anthropogenic origin A1. Economic values and valuation methodologies Economics attempts to apply a common measurement unit to all the resources and services that contribute to social welfare. While many of these goods are traded in markets that express their scarcity, others are not. A sizeable proportion of the goods and services provided by the environment are not priced and this leads to their overexploitation. The absence of market prices also means that there is no simple metric by which to measure economic value, and it is to overcome this problem that a number of valuation techniques have been developed. An important starting point is the concept of total economic value (TEV), which recognizes the fact that the environment provides not simply direct use values but also a range of indirect and ‘passive’ use values to society. Direct use values arise from the direct consumption of a resource, for example the coast for recreation, or fish as food. Indirect use values are benefits that are derived from the environment without human intervention, as in the case of life support services (e.g. gas regulation function of the open ocean) or ecological services that are inputs into a process of production (e.g. mangroves as breeding grounds for fisheries). Passive use values are assigned to a resource for its mere existence (existence value) or for its availability to future generations (bequest value), as in the case of endangered animal species such as whales. In order to take into account the impact on social welfare of changes in the quantity or quality of nonmarketed resources and services, economists make use of a range of techniques, which have different contexts of application. Several categories of technique may be identified, differentiated according to the type of market they are based on and whether they make use of actual or potential behaviour of individuals. The first category includes techniques that are directly based on market prices or measures of productivity. These can be used when a change in an environmental resource or service affects actual production or productive capability. When, for instance, non-marketed goods are used in production as inputs and such values are reflected in market prices, information about a marketed good can be used to infer the value of a non-marketed good. This is termed the production function approach. The second category of techniques uses data on potential expenditure valued in conventional markets. They are derived from the costs of providing a proxy for the resource or service to be evaluated. An example of these is the replacement cost method. Valuation techniques using implicit markets infer values for an environmental resource or service from a related or surrogate market. An example is the travel cost method, which uses travel costs as a proxy for the value of an openaccess recreational site. Finally, when there is no market and not even an implicit market from which to infer the value of an environmental good, a hypothetical market can be constructed. This is the approach used by the contingent valuation method. Through the use of surveys, this technique infers demand for an environmental resource or service by eliciting individuals’ willingness to pay for an environmental improvement or willingness to accept compensation for a loss in environmental quality. Currently, the contingent valuation method is the sole valuation method capable of capturing passive use values. 11 In the following sections a number of case studies will be presented which analyse the impact on economic activities and other aspects of human welfare of three different sources of marine environmental disturbance of anthropogenic origin, namely oil spills, nutrient enrichment and eutrophication, and ecosystem destruction. A2. Oil spills Tanker accidents have been the cause of most of the very largest oil spills: of the 66 spills in which at least 10 million gallons (34,000 tonnes) of oil were lost, 48 were from tankers (NOAA). Oil spills happen all around the world. Spills in the size range of at least 34,000 tonnes have occurred in the waters of 112 nations since 1960 with particularly high frequencies in the Gulf of Mexico, the North Atlantic, and the Mediterranean Sea (NOAA). The effects of oil pollution upon the marine environment can be seen as a decrease in the flow of services provided by a marine resource, which can extend over a number of years. Impacts on the marine environment of oil spills include losses for economic activities, most notably fishing, fish farming and tourism (EEA 1999), and reductions in other aspects of social welfare, such as non-marketed recreation losses. In order to shed light on the type and magnitude of these impacts, the cases of two well documented major oil spills from tankers that took place in the last decades are discussed below. A2.1. The Amoco Cadiz incident The Amoco Cadiz ran aground on 16 March 1978 off the coast of Northern Brittany in France spilling its cargo of 220,000 tons of oil. Over 350 kilometres of coastline were contaminated. Given the unavailability of catch and effort data by boat, Grigalunas et al. (1986) estimated losses to off-shore fisheries using a trendextrapolation model based on monthly estimates of the loss or gain in the months following the oil spill up to the end of 1979. The model was used to capture the decline of physical outputs, which were then evaluated at the levels of real prices predicted to have occurred in the absence of the oil spill. Losses to fisheries were evaluated at 4.7 1978 million dollars. Much worse was the situation for the Brittany oyster farming industry which accounted for 15% of French oyster production. Oyster and shellfish losses included the value of stocks destroyed, the value of lost production during the period of stock recovery, avoidance and cleanup costs, and the costs of additional promotional activities aimed at preventing any erosion of France’ ‘product image’ in this market. Losses were conservatively estimated at 26 1978 million dollars. As for the Brittany tourism industry, an estimated 245,000 visitors chose not go to Brittany summer resorts following the oil spill and losses were estimated at 27.5 1978 million dollars. Using interviews with tour operators and a range of stated preference techniques (travel cost and contingent valuation methods) non-marketed recreation losses to tourists and to residents were estimated in the range of 10-80 1978 million dollars depending on the assumptions at the base of the estimates. A2.2 The Exxon Valdez incident On the night of 24 March 1989 the supertanker Exxon Valdez ran aground on Bligh Reef in Prince Williams Sound, Alaska, spilling 38,800 metric tons of crude oil. Although the quantity of oil spilt was relatively small compared to other incidents, the 12 Exxon Valdez case is considered to be the worst ever in terms of environmental damages as it occurred in an ecologically pristine area. In fact, ecological systems have not fully recovered to date (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council). The case of the Exxon Valdez spurred a heated debate about liability for the loss of passive use values and their measurement (see Portney 1994). Lost passive use values were evaluated through a contingent valuation survey which described the damages caused by the oil spill and established a referendum market for eliciting the value respondents placed on preventing a future accident that would cause an equivalent amount of damage in the Prince William Sound area. Lost passive use were initially estimated at 2.8 1990 billion dollars but in 2003 a new valuation by the same authors estimated them at 4.87 billion dollars (Carson et al. 2003). Losses to recreational fishing for the period 1989-1990 were estimated by Carson and Hanemann (1992) using the travel cost method. These were found to be in the range of 3.6-50.5 million dollars depending on the assumptions at the base of the estimates. Losses to salmon fisheries were estimated by Cohen (1995) using a method similar to that used in the Amoco Cadiz case (see Section A2.1.). These amounted to as much as 155.1 million dollars for the years 1989 and 1990. However, these estimates should be taken with care since Alaska experienced several other biological and economic perturbations in those years that might have contributed to those losses. A3. Nutrient enrichment and eutrophication Many human activities use marine ecosystems as free of charge waste sinks for their by products. Runoff from agriculture, discharges from septic systems and sewers, and other human-related activities increase the flux of substances such as nutrients (especially nitrogen and phosphorus) into marine ecosystems. Nutrient enrichment can favour eutrophic conditions which create negative externalities and impact on social welfare decreasing the value of the marine environment such that recreation, fishing, and aesthetic enjoyment may be hindered. However, nutrient enrichment may lead to positive externalities under certain conditions, as in the case of nutrient-poor marine ecosystems. For instance, this has been the case in the Mediterrenean Sea, where nutrient enrichment has led to an increase in fishery productivity (Caddy et al. 1995, Machias et al. 2004). Moreover, even events such as algal blooms, which are favoured by eutrophic conditions and have caused considerable losses in human welfare (see, for instance, Wessels et al. 1995), have not a purely anthropogenic origin. In order to shed light on some of these issue, two case studies are discussed, namely the case of the Baltic Sea and the case of the Black Sea. These are water bodies that, due to their peculiar characteristics, are especially susceptible to pollution from nutrients. A3.1. The Baltic Sea case The Baltic Sea environment and resources are particularly vulnerable due to a combination of biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. The Baltic Sea is the largest brackish body of water in the world and it is characterised by a very slow water exchange. The catchment area covers around 1,670,000 square kilometres and contains a population of about 85 million people. A significant proportion of the world’s industrial production comes from the countries surrounding it. Current loads of nitrogen and phosphorous are high. The agriculture sector and sewage treatment plants are the major sources of nutrient discharges with the former accounting for 13 50% and 33% of nitrogen and phosphorus loads respectively, and the latter for 33% and 66% respectively (Gren 2000). The Baltic Sea coasts are popular tourist areas. High nutrients loads cause problems such as water turbidity and algal blooms, which decrease the recreational value of beaches and archipelagos. The Baltic Sea waters also serve as spawning, nursery, and feeding grounds for several species of marine and freshwater fish. Turner et al. (1999) estimated the economic value of eutrophication damage due to changes in the stream of a range of services provided by the Baltic Sea. Using the contingent valuation method they estimated the total economic value of reducing the effects of eutrophication, as well as sub-components of this total value, such as use (e.g. beach recreation) and passive use (e.g. existence of preserved species) values. Although the estimate provided (SEK 37,892-69,310 million per year) is highly uncertain due to difficulties in the estimation process, it is still clear that the value of the services provided by the Baltic Sea is high. The effect of eutrophication on fisheries appears mixed. While total fish catch has increased tenfold since the 1940s and eutrophication has been ascribed as one of the causes of this increase, some species such as cod have been negatively affected by eutrophication (Gren et al. 1997). A3.2. The Black Sea case Like the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea also is very vulnerable to pressures from human activities. This water body is almost completely enclosed and has shallow waters. It receives the drainage from a 2 million square kilometres basin covering about a third of continental Europe (17 countries with a population of around 160 million people). Discharges of nitrogen and phosphorous are high, largely as a result of agricultural, domestic, and industrial activities (BSEP 1994). In the case of the Black Sea it appears that nutrient enrichment may yield some positive welfare effects under certain assumptions. Knowler et al. (2001, 2002) attempted to model and to empirically estimate the welfare effects of changes in the level of phosphates on the Black Sea anchovy fishery in order to assess the desirability of nutrient enrichment programs. Knowler and Barbier (2000) estimated marginal values of phosphates as an environmental input in fish production from $45,000 to $713,000 (in US$ 1989/90) per μM (phosphate unit). The latter value refers to an undisturbed ecological state, while the former refers to a disturbed ecological state due to the introduction in the 1980’s (likely through ballast dumping, another source of negative externalities in marine environments) of an invasive species of comb-jelly (Mnemiopsis leidyi), which both preys and competes with anchovy. In order to evaluate the overall impact on social welfare of the Black Sea nutrient enrichment, the above figures should be compared to other values of social welfare that are likely to be negatively affected by nutrient enrichment (e.g. other fish species, water quality, recreation and tourism). The authors also tried to estimate the effects of nutrient enrichment on the anchovy fishery under the assumption that Mnemiopsis leidyi outbreaks are favoured by nutrient enrichment. In this case results were ambiguous. A4. Ecosystem destruction Important ecological systems such as mangroves and coral reefs are under threat in many countries worldwide, especially in developing countries where these systems are threatened by the expansion of activities such as agriculture, aquaculture, tourism, and urban and infrastructural development. The root of this problem is the failure to 14 take into consideration in development decisions the considerable value of the ecological functions served by these ecosystems. Economic causes and magnitude of losses of mangrove conversion and coral reefs destruction are discussed below. A4.1 Mangrove conversion Mangroves line the tropical and sub-tropical coastlines of approximately 117 countries worldwide (WCMC 1994). They serve important ecological functions such as the protection of coastlines from sea erosion and hurricanes, and the provision of nutrients and shelter to many aquatic organisms. They also provide local communities with commercial and subsistence commodities. Mangroves are disappearing at alarming rates in many countries. The main factors contributing to this process are increasing population pressures in coastal areas, overharvesting of timber, and in more recent years the demand for land by primary sector activities such as mining, conversion to salt ponds, and agriculture and aquaculture expansion. The disruption of the ecological and economic functions performed by mangroves has resulted in many countries in fishery decline, degradation of water supplies, salinisation of coastal soils, erosion, land subsidence, and the release of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. There are few studies on the economic causes of mangrove deforestation. Barbier and Cox (2003) developed a cross-country analysis (89 countries were included) of the extent to which economic development influences mangrove loss worldwide. They concluded that increases in agricultural GDP per person employed have the largest impact on mangrove loss: a 10% rise resulted in a 10.5%-10.9% loss in mangrove area. Shrimp aquaculture was also linked with mangrove loss but less severely: a 10% increase in shrimp aquaculture production was associated with a 0.14%-0.18% loss in mangrove area. However, losses due to shrimp aquaculture were severe in some major shrimp-exporting countries. For instance, the same authors (Barbier and Cox 2004) analysed the factors determining mangrove conversion in Thailand’s coastal provinces during the period 1979-1996. They found shrimp aquaculture to be an important cause of mangrove deforestation but also found evidence of other activities such as agriculture, tourism, industrialisation, and urbanisation contributing to mangrove conversion. As for the valuation of mangrove services and resources, a few studies have attempted this analysis, in particular the impact on fisheries of the loss of breeding and nursery grounds provided by mangroves. Barbier and Strand (1998) adopted a production function approach in order to evaluate the effect of mangrove loss on the production and value of the wild shrimp fishery in Campeche State, Mexico. Results indicated that mangroves were an important input into shrimp fishery but that the low levels of deforestation during the period under consideration (19801990) implied relatively small losses (US$ 278,704, equivalent to a reduction of 0.4% in the revenue of the wild shrimp fishery). More substantial losses are to be expected when mangrove deforestation is high. In Thailand, for instance, losses to the artisanal demersal and shellfish fisheries due to mangrove losses were estimated to range between $1.3 to $1.6 million annually during the period 1983-1996 (Barbier 2003). Values for several mangrove resources and services were estimated by Sathirathai and Barbier (2001) for a small local community in Southern Thailand (652 residents). Using field surveys the value of direct use of wood as well as other resources collected from the mangroves was estimated to be $88 per ha. Benefits in terms of off-shore fishery linkages were estimated using a production function approach and were in the range of $21-$69 per ha. The value of coastline protection was estimated 15 using a replacement cost method (based on the cost of replacing mangroves with breakwaters to prevent erosion) and amounted to $3,679 per ha. Over a 20 years period, the total present value of the mangrove system to the local community was estimated to be as much as $27,264-$35,921. A4.2 Coral reef destruction Coral reefs are highly productive and biologically diverse ecosystems covering only 0.2% of the ocean floor, yet supporting an estimated 25% of all marine life (Spalding 2001). They provide a range of resources such as seafood, pharmaceutical substances, and goods traded in the jewellery and souvenir markets, as well as providing recreational and cultural benefits to a vast number of individuals. They also serve important ecological services such as the protection of coastlines from sea erosion and the provision of spawning, breeding and feeding grounds for a multitude of organisms. Many coral reefs are threatened worldwide. Several causes contribute to the decline of coral reefs including urbanisation, deforestation, intensive agriculture, overharvesting of reef resources, destructive fishing methods, and uncontrolled tourism (Moberg and Folke 1999). Only some of the values associated with coral reef resources and services have been estimated (Moberg and Folke 1999, Spurgeon 1992). Valuation studies have predominantly focused on the impact of coral reef degradation on economic activities such as tourism and fisheries. More rarely, other values were estimated. An example is the study conducted by Cesar (1996) who used market-based techniques to estimate the welfare losses caused by a range of activities damaging to coral reefs in Indonesia. For instance, on a 25-year time horizon and applying a 10% discount rate, blast fishing was found to cause losses to fisheries and to tourism for US$86.3 6 and US$2.9-US$481.9 per km2 respectively, and to impair the coastal protection function of coral reefs for a value of US$8.9-US$193 per km2. Losses due to coral mining activities were found to be US$93.6 and US$2.9US$481.9 per km2 for fisheries and for tourism respectively, and the coastal protection function of coral reefs was impaired by this activity by US$12-US$260 per km2. Sedimentation from logging activities was found to cause losses to fisheries and to tourism for US$81 and US$192 per km2 respectively. 16 References Anderson DM, Hoagland P, Kaoru Y, and White AW (2000). 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