Concern Worldwide
Climate Change in the Coast of Bay of Bengal:
Impact, Resilience and Implications
1
THE STUDY TEAM
Author and Lead Consultant
Khurshid Alam, Disaster and Climate Change Specialist
www.khurshidalam.org
Quantitative Research Advisor
Khan Arif-Ur Rahman
Qualitative Research Advisor
Khaled Hossain, Shafiul Alam, Swarna Kazi, Sayeeda Farhana, Sunil Misra,
Mohammad Boby Sabur, Sumaiya S Kabir
Advisor
Shameem Siddiqui
Concern Worldwide Core Team:
Saroj Das, Nobi Khan and Sweta Mishra
2
Acronyms
AA
BCAS
BCCRF
BCCSAP
BCDPC
BDRCS
CCA
CDMP
CDP
COP
CPP
CRA
CSP
DMB
DMC
DP Plans
DP
DRM
DRR
EC
EWS
FGD
FOFCC
GDP
GOB
GP
HDI
HDR
HFA
HH
IAY
IPCC
JJS
KAP
KII
LDC
LFA
LG
LGED
LGRDC
MDG
MOFDM
NGO
OSAPCC
OSDMA
ActionAid
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies
Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund
Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan
Building Community Disaster Preparedness Capacity
Bangladesh Red Cross and Red Crescent Society
Climate Change Adaptation
Comprehensive Disaster Management Program
Comprehensive Disaster Preparedness
Conference of the Parties
Cyclone Preparedness Program
Community Risk Assessment
Country Strategic Paper
Disaster Management Bureau
Disaster Management Committees
Disaster Preparedness Plans
Disaster Preparedness
Disaster Risk Management
Disaster Risk Reduction
EuropeAid
Early Warning System
Focused Group Discussion
Focus Orissa Forum for Climate Change
Gross Domestic Product
Government of Bangladesh
Gram Panchayet
Human Development Index
Human Development Report
Hyogo Framework for Action
Household
Indira Awas Yojana
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Jagrata Juba Shangha
Knowledge Attitude and Practice
Key Informant Interview
Local Disaster Committees
Logical Framework Analysis
Local Government
Local Government Engineering Department
Local Government and Rural Development Council
Millennium Development Goals
Ministry of Food and Disaster Management
Non Governmental Organization
Orissa State Action Plan on Climate Change
Orissa State Disaster Management Authority
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Oxfam GB
PNCCA
RCDC
RCS
SECC
SoD
SRDI
SW
TA
TNA
ToR
UDMC
UN
UNDP
UNEP
UNICEF
Union Parishad
Upazila
URC
UzDMC
VAP
VCA
VDMCs
WB
Oxfam Great Britain
People’s Network on Climate Change Actions
Regional Centre for Development Cooperation
Red Cross Society
Solutions Exchange for Climate Change
Standing Order on Disasters
Soil Research Development Institute
South West
ThinkAhead
Training Needs Assessment
Terms of Reference
Union Disaster Management Committee
United Nation
United Nations Development Program
United Nations Environment Program
United Nation International Children Emergency Fund
Union Council, lowest administrative level of Bangladesh
Sub district, third administrative level of Bangladesh
Upazila Resource Centre
Upazila Disaster Management Committee
Village Action Plans
Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment
Village Disaster Management Committee
World Bank
4
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We are pleased to submit this baseline assessment report on the Impact of Climate Change in the Coastal
Areas of the Bay of Bengal to Concern Worldwide.
As a team we enjoyed working in this important research and we believe the results will help Concern
and communities in building more resilient communities to climate change in the coastal areas of the
Bay of Bengal.
Many people have contributed to this study. We deeply acknowledge their input and support.
First and foremost, we acknowledge the research participants for giving their valuable time to the study
team. In addition, we appreciate the substantial inputs from the many government officials, NGOs
and individual experts who were consulted on this report and provided their feedback.
Furthermore, this report was prepared with active technical and financial support from Concern
Worldwide. We are especially grateful to Saroj Das and Kwanli Kladstrup of the Concern Worldwide
office in Dhaka. Mr. Das, Mr. Nabi Khan and Sweta Mishra were involved in all phases of the study
and provided useful feedback to the study team and their in-depth review of the drafts greatly enriched
this report.
We also acknowledge the staff of RCDC, Shushilan and JJS for providing quality support and
hospitality to the team and shared their vast knowledge and experience.
Finally, heartfelt acknowledgement to the ThinkAhead team, consisting of Khaled Hossian, Shafial
Alam, Sumaiya S Kabir, Farhana Sayeeda, Mohammad Boby Sabur and Swarna Kazi, for analysing the
information and preparing the report--their efforts are highly appreciated.
Khurshid Alam
Study Team Leader
www.khurshidalam.org
Managing Director
ThinkAhead Limited
5
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
08
Section 1 Introduction
12
The Report
Concern Worldwide’s Climate Change project
Purpose of the Study
Study Methodology
Report’s Structure
Section 2: Context of the Study Location
The big picture in Bay of Bengal: Poverty and climate change nexus
Institutional response continue to emerge-pace is slow
Section 3: Climate change and disaster
Knowledge of Vulnerable People about Present and Future Climatic Risk
Impact of most recent disasters on life and livelihoods
Section 4: Vulnerability to climate change
Physical Feature of the Study Villages
Settlement Pattern
Livelihood Characteristics
Fragile Housing
Access to cyclone shelter
Access to Early Warning
Understanding Early Warning
Summary of the Vulnerability
Section 5: Coping and adaptation
Current Mitigation and Adaptation Activities
Village Practicing Climate Change Adaptation
Capacity for Mitigation and Adaptation
People’s Engagement in Alternative Livelihood
Section 6: Institutions
Villages Disaster Preparedness Plan
Status of most vulnerable people in the community resilience plan
Quality of participation of vulnerable people in DP plan
Inclusion of the most vulnerable households’ concern in the village DP plan
Functioning DMCs at Union and GP level
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12
13
13
16
17
17
20
21
21
29
32
32
32
33
34
36
38
38
40
42
42
44
44
46
47
47
47
47
48
48
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Awareness of DMC members about their Roles and Responsibilities
Inclusion of DRR and CCA in the organizational plan and policies
Section 7 Conclusions and Call for Actions
49
49
51
Referances
7
Climate Change in the Coast of Bay of Bengal:
Impact, Resilience and Implications
Summary Report and Call for Action
INTRODUCTION
1. This report presents the views, of hundreds of poor people living in the coast of Bay of Bengal,
about climate change and its impact on their life, livelihood and environment.
2. This study was prepared as a baseline for Concern Worldwide’ climate change adaptation
programme being implemented in the state of Orissa of India and South West Coast of
Bangladesh. Concern shares this report to wider public and policy makers considering its possible
contribution to the ideas and knowledge that shape current climate change policy and actions in
the study countries as well as international climate change negotiation in Durban in November
2011.
3. The study focus was selective to the baseline indicators of the project. But it produced far greater
analysis and views sufficient to raise significant issues relevant to today’s climate change discourse.
4. It was conducted in June 2011, by an experienced team in Bangladesh and India, with support
from a group of climate change specialists. This covered four districts in Bangladesh i.e. Khulna,
Satkhira, Patuakhali and Bagerhat and two districts i.e. Kendrapara and Jagatshingpur of Orissa
state of India. The study team utilised CWW’s Asset, Inequality and Risk framework in designing
the study.



Taking a broad definition of asset, it examined how climate change impact on social, political
and economic asset of poor people and how comprehensive protection of these assets can
enable poor people to adapt with climate change.
It carefully examined historical inequality in the societies in the form of gender, religion, caste
and economic ability—and studied how climate change resulted in disproportionate impact on
people living in inequalities.
Finally, it investigated how climate change influences nature and pattern of risks in the coastal
Bay of Bengal.
CONTEXT
5. The catchment area of the Bay of Bengal, the world’s largest bay, is home to 400 million people.
Although poverty reduction is high on agenda and action in both the countries it remains as one of
the biggest development challenges. More than 50 million people are still living in extreme poverty
(BBS 2006), while Orissa with a population of 40 million has the highest incidence of poverty in
India with 47% people living below poverty line. Nevertheless there has been significant progress
in reduction in poverty rate. Incident of poverty reduced to 32.5% in 2011 from 51% in 1995 in
8
Bangladesh and Orissa’s Human Development Index (HDI) increased from 0.27% to 0.40 in
2001.
6. Climate change is now among the key drivers that perpetuates poverty in the coastal region of Bay
of Bengal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2008) predicts South Asia and
the Coastal Region of Bay of Bengal as among the world’s most vulnerable regions.
7. This would not only increase mortality risk because of increased frequency and intensity of
disasters, but also alter the bio-physical and hydro-meteorological character - such as changes in
precipitation, increase in salinity intrusion and the rise in sea level leading to the displacement of
millions of people. Cyclonic pattern has been changing in South Asia where more than 750 million
people (75% of regional total) have been affected by weather related disasters since 1990. Cyclone
frequency during November and May over the North Indian Ocean has increased two-folds in last
122 years. The World Bank (WB) estimated that agriculture, on which majority of the population
depends, will be severely affected by changes in the monsoon dynamics caused by changes in the
conditions of the Bay of Bengal and the Himalayas. This projected sea level rise could flood the
homes of millions of people living in the low-lying areas of South Asia.
KEY CONCLUSIONS
8. The coastal communities in the Bay of Bengal are already experiencing climate change, as
predicted and observed by the scientific community. The study finds changes in the selected areas
of biophysical environment in both Orissa and South West Coast of Bangladesh - which the
livelihood of majority of the people depend on. Although the nature of changes follows a similar
pattern across the coasts, the degree varies according to localised physical characteristics. The
major changes as experienced in the study villages include: salinity intrusion in water and soil;
increased frequency and intensity of tidal surge, sea coming closer and coastal erosion; and
increase in cyclonic events.
9. These changes have considerable implications on the quality and volume of natural resources i.e.
soil; ground and surface water; grazing land and fish catch in the villages where salinity intrusion is
most acute. Their combined implication has been felt on food and nutrient security of the
population. They have reached a stage at which people cannot cope with their existing resources
and technologies as observed in at least in 12 study villages in Bangladesh and Orissa.
10. Majority of the people in the study villages are poor and are going through change in their
livelihood, which is primarily due to the change in the bio-physical environment. Agriculture,
which is the primary source of livelihood, is completely destroyed in four villages of
Bangladeshand moderately affected in some other villages in Orissa and Bangladesh coast.
Supplementary livelihood of rural household such as homestead gardening, poultry and animal
husbandry have been affected - complete destruction in the villages affected by cyclone Aila. In
these areas cropping is no longer a viable option and significant reduction in crop yield is taking
place forcing people to migrate, or rely more on safety nets or options for day labour.
Sharecropping, a major source of livelihood for people in Bangladesh and Orissa coast, is no
longer available to them as landowners have become more interested in shrimp farming. This is
due to increase salinity in the land and water that reduces yield.
11. By now many studies concluded increasing frequency and intensity of cyclonic events in the Bay of
Bengal. The study population too have experienced such changes in pattern and nature of hazards
9
such as cyclone, flooding, drought and tidal activities. For example, people experience more
intense tide in the form of heights and geographical coverage. ‘Sea coming inward’ and ‘increase in
river and sea erosion’ erode productive landmass that further heightens the number of landless
people in the villages close to sea and river. Combined with increasing cyclone occurrence (and
frequent cyclonic warning) and sea level rise, there is prevalence of significant fear among the
study population.
12. Intensity of such problem contributes to increased migration although lack of previous data limits
the study to conclude whether migration has been increased. There are insignificant but new trend
of cross-border migration evident in certain villages of Bangladesh.
13. The study highlighted importance of rethinking some of the developmental policies such as
expansion of commercial shrimp farming, commercialisation of common property resources;
water management and infrastructure development as they in some cases exacerbate the impact of
climate change changes.
14. The vulnerabilities of the population to current disaster and climate variability are more likely to
contribute to the vulnerability to predicted climate changes. Historical inequality between sexes,
ages and powerful and powerless continue to determine people’s vulnerability to climate change.
Climate change not only creates an impact on existing inequality but the same inequality limits
people’s ability to access adaptive resources such as information, fund and technology and ability
to influence climate change policy and actions. This study indicates that the impact of past
disasters was higher on the people living at bottom of wellbeing ranking. The other immediate
vulnerability includes access to natural resources, fragile physical environment, limited
preparedness at HH and institutional level and lack of knowledge to adapt to climate change.
Women are clearly taking on more burdens than men; for example, women collect water from
distant sources. Poor household having to resort to buying water are restricting/limiting their
expenses on other developmental investments such as education; and many people belonging to
poor households and landless are migrating to cities simply because the available natural resources
found in former dwelling area can no longer provide adequate income. The poor women are
taking greatest burden in providing security for their families as they engage in risky livelihood
options as observed in many villages in the study locations. While most women catch fish fry in
rivers, certain others migrate to metropolitan areas to work in garments factories that increase not
only their physical stress but their social insecurity as well. On the other hand it is clear that people
have limited knowledge about the decision making at the village level and above; they have little
participation in the community level planning process. This analysis highlights the likelihood of
vulnerable people’s participation being missed out in future climate action and policy at the local
level.
15. The study documents an array of coping activities to existing climate change impacts. They are
most likely to exceed once the degree of impacts go higher (the situation exist in the villages in
Khulna and Satkhira). Thus transformation of coping strategies to adaptive ones requires urgent
investment to prevent the population from falling into further poverty and becoming exposed to
disaster mortality. This study highlights that building climate resilient communities requires three
concrete actions at the local level- protection from direct impact of climate change, building
people’s ability to accessing climate resources and investment on empowerment to influence
climate policy and actions. Public and NGO investment have so far been highly engaged in the
first actions while later two remain areas with significant gaps. Introduction of saline tolerant
paddy, improved access to early warning and increasing investment on disaster risk reduction
already started to pay off. A significant portion of the study population is not aware about climate
change and various planning process in the villages and local government levels.
10
16. An array of active and dormant institutions exists at the local level in Orissa and Bangladesh
coasts. These institutions lack significant knowledge and skills required for climate change
planning and implementation at local level. Climate change planning in Orissa and Bangladesh,
intensified recent years, is yet to reach the local level. They have creditable understanding about
urgency of climate change. Increasing degree of climate change impact requires a maximisation of
capacity. The study identified three key actions for this. First is the transforming of dormant
institution to active one otherwise likely climate change resources flowing to the local level would
be least effective. Secondly, the climate change impact of current scale cannot be mitigated until
there is a shift towards the decentralization of planning process. The third dimension is to
maximize household and community level capacity by identifying and addressing the capacity that
are currently dormant or inactive.
17. Communities’ initiative to address the climate change problem is evident in both coasts. These
initiatives range from the formation of new forms of institutions in managing sluice gates to
collective initiatives in maintaining embankments, raising homestead, maintaining water channels
and drains. It is also evident that the capacity of communities to come up with innovate solutions
to the climate change problem largely depends on the scale of the problem. The communities tend
to be more innovative where the scale of the problem does not exceed the existing capacity.
Collective innovation is limited where scale of the problem is acute and significant on all aspects of
life and livelihood of the poor people as people invest their full capacity in managing their day to
day livelihoods.
IMPLICATION OF FINDINGS ON POLICY AND ACTIONS
1. Current pace of climate actions are not adequate to enable people to adapt with climate change.
Far more bigger and urgent actions needed to help people from falling further into poverty that is
the key national and international priority at the moment.
2. Climate change policy and actions must address the inequality in the communities. There should
be specific measures to make sure that actions reach the most vulnerable. The policy and actions
must take great care about the local political economy of project selection. Decentralised
management and leadership of local government is most important in the implementation of
climate actions but greater emphasis should also be placed on the participation of the people living
in inequalities such as women, minorities, lower castes and small holder and landless farmers.
3. Urgency in reappraisal of development---assist protection. Far greater emphasis is put on
protection of biodiversity. But it is not enough—access and control over these resources are
important.
4. Far greater attention needs to be paid on disaster risk management in Orissa and some parts of
Bangladesh.
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Section 1 Introduction
1.1 The Report
A considerable number of the world’s poorest people live on the coast of Bay of Bengal1 that is also
the world’s largest bay. The coast is rich in natural resources and monsoon that makes it greatly
suitable for agriculture and fishing. The bay is also the source of some of the deadliest cyclones in the
past century killing millions of people. The coast is now impacted by climate change. This means
intense cyclonic activities, frequent flooding, drought, sea level rise and salinity intrusion that will be
posing additional and significant threat to an already vulnerable population and environment. The
coast of Bangladesh and the Indian coast of Orissa are among the most vulnerable regions in South
Asia with significant cyclonic exposure and high mortality risk--now further affected by climate
change.
Historically people living in the coast innovated science and arts to live with disasters and shocks that
hit them although these efforts are now inadequate to the impact of climate change. With the
emergence of scientific consensus on climate change, the governments in the coast have intensified
their efforts to tackle the impacts. Bangladesh and India have formulated strategic actions to
strengthen national effort in sustainable development, poverty alleviation and disaster management.
To contribute to these efforts, Concern Worldwide (CWW) launched a five year project in 2011 in the
South West coast of Bangladesh (referred to as Bangladesh Coast) and the coast of Orissa along the
Bay of Bengal. This report documents pre-project (June 2011) situation against the indicators set out in
the project’s logical framework.
1.2 Concern Worldwide’s Climate Change project
With funding support from EuropeAid (EC), the project set out the objective to build resilience of
coastal communities along the Bay of Bengal by increasing their ability, along with that of authorities
and organizations, to prepare for and adapt to the impacts of hazards and climate change. The project
formulated following four result areas:
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
1
Increased capacity of state and non-state actors leading to the integration of appropriate DRR
and climate change adaptation activities into relevant multi-sectoral development plans.
Increased capacity of target communities to withstand, respond to and recover from the
impact of hazards through a number of preparedness measures.
Pilot projects implemented to demonstrate practical way for climate change adaptation.
Lessons learnt are promoted and shared amongst practitioners and policy makers at state
national, regional and international levels.
Bay of Bangle includes India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand and Sri Lanka—and located in South Asia.
12
In order to achieve these results project included number of broad activities: support to build adaptive
capacity, building of regional knowledge, support people to influence climate policy and actions,
enhancement of DRR at different levels and piloting alternative livelihoods.
The project has been implemented in two coastal districts of Orissa and four districts of the southwest
coast of Bangladesh. The project planned to support 1.2 million people with direct benefit planned for
more than 80,000 people.
1.3 Purpose of the Study
Knowledge on climate change and its implication on coastal population continue to emerge in
Bangladesh and India. However, significant knowledge gap exist when entire coast of Bay of Bengal is
taken into account as a single unit.
The study has two broad purposes. Firstly, the internal project management purpose—that it was
designed to document pre-project situation for accountability and impact assessment purpose. Second
one is more external and broad that aims to contribute in meeting the knowledge gap by creating
synergy of the findings for the public and the policy makers in India and Bangladesh.
Specific purpose of the study:
a) Updating present scenario of climate change and disaster risks on the overall poverty in the project
areas,
b) Identifying community based adaptation and coping strategies and the available institutional
capacity at the local level, and
c) Collecting information against all project indicators as outlined in the logical framework.
1.4 Study Methodology
Following are the overall approach adopted for the study:
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


Selection of indicators. The study was designed to be selective in focus –examined 20
selected indicators of project logframe.
Conceptual Framework. The study was built on knowledge and experience of the people
living in the Orissa and Bangladesh coast. A conceptual framework underpins four broad
concepts: impact of climate change, adaptive capacity, impact of most recent disasters and
institutional capacity—and all these aspects are examined through CWW’s poverty framework
of Asset-Inequality-Risk. The study used qualitative and quantitative research techniques. A
Knowledge Attitude and Practice (KAP) study was conducted to generate analysis for a
number of indicators.
Sampling. Multi-stage sampling procedure was performed.
Quality of the information. High quality training was organized for the research team.
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1.4. A. Conceptual Framework
Following four concepts adopted in the study:
a)
Climate Change Impact. Down-scaled climate change predictions are not available but it
was necessary for the study to engage the community members for documenting their current
and required adaptive capacity. The problem was addressed through: i) drawing together
observed changes in the climate and their current impact; and ii) extrapolating this information
together with community by using regional and national climate change prediction. The
approach helped community to come up with a number of climate change impacts that has an
immediate and long term impact on their life and livelihood.
b)
Adaptive capacity of community and most vulnerable people. Although many
frameworks exist to analyse adaptive capacity of the people at risk of climate change, the study
undertook a broad framework to document people’s current level of coping and adaptation.
No rigorous analysis has been performed. Capacity maximisation framework that ThinkAhead
developed for Oxfam GB was used that examines HH preparedness, access to cyclone
shelters, access to early warning and types of housing.
c)
Impact of most recent disasters. The study considered Orissa Super Cyclone of 1999 for
Orissa, and Cyclone Sidr of 2007 and Cyclone Aila of 2009 for the project districts of South
West coast of Bangladesh. Impact of most recent disaster should be used as caution as each
disaster is unique and they can create impacts in different ways. A rigorous analysis is also
given by analysing characteristics of some of the most recent disasters.
d)
Institutional preparedness and integration of CCA and DRR. Institutional analysis
performed with village level organizations, disaster management committees, Concern’s
partner organizations to understand their level of preparedness, extent of inclusion of CCA
and DRR into the planning, status of functioning and status of poor people in the policy,
planning and actions.
These concepts are applied within the Assets—Inequality—Risk framework of CWW that it has been
using in analysis and programming purpose.



Taking a broad definition of asset, it examined how climate change impact on social, political
and economic asset of poor people and how comprehensive protection of these assets can
enable poor people to adapt with climate change.
It carefully examined historical inequality in the societies in the form of gender, religion, caste
and economic ability—and studied how climate change resulted in disproportionate impact on
people living in inequalities.
Finally, it investigated how climate change influences nature and pattern of risks in the coastal
Bay of Bengal.
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1.4. B. Selection of Indicators
A set of 20 indicators is selected from the project LFA, which are grouped under five categories.
Table 1.1 Study Indicators by Categories
Climate change
Institutions
1.
3.
4.
2.
Knowledge of vulnerable people about
present and future Climatic Risk
Causes of Disaster Mortality Risk and
Impact of most recent disasters on life
and livelihoods
Disaster and vulnerability
12. Access of vulnerable people to early
warning
13. Coverage of early warning
Existence of village DP plan
Vulnerable people’s understanding and awareness about
the DP plans
5. Status of most vulnerable people in the community
resilience plan
6. Extent and quality of participation of vulnerable people
in DP planning
7. Extent of inclusion of the vulnerable households’
concern in the village DP plan
8. Status of functioning of DRR committees.
9. Awareness of DRR committee members about their roles
and responsibilities
10. Inclusion of DRR and CCA in the organizational plan and
policies of selected institutions
11. Extent of the inclusion of vulnerable people’s risk and
vulnerability issues in the development plans
Coping and adaptation
Concern’s partners
14. Current Mitigation and adaptation
activities in the villages ?
15. Practicing of Climate Change
adaptation activities
16. Capacity of the vulnerable people to
undertake mitigation and adaptation
activities
17. Engagement of vulnerable people in
alternative livelihood
18. Level of participation of Concern and Partners in the DRR
and CCA Network
19. Existence of system for collecting and disseminating
good practices on DRR and CCA
20. Existence of Strategy and Plan on DRR and CCA related
Advocacy
1.4. C. Tools and Techniques
For the quantitative part of the study, a structured questionnaire was used to collect baseline
information. This technique was used to gather information related to household level indicators. On
the other hand, community and institutional level information were collected through qualitative
process. Synthesis of the key findings was developed through an analysis workshop in Dhaka.
1.4. D. Coverage and Sampling
The project LFA indicates four different categories of study populations: i) communities (villages); ii)
most vulnerable households; iii) GP/Union level institutions; and iv) Concern’s partner organizations.
All project districts and three partner organizations of Concern were selected for the baseline, while a
multi-stage sampling procedure was employed to select the other study populations.
15
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
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Selection of district. All six districts from Orissa and Bangladesh coasts were covered. In
addition, two unions/GPs were selected purposively from each project districts for the
purpose of union level analysis.
The village selection. A total number of 20 villages from Orissa and Bangladesh coast were
selected purposively based on their relative vulnerability to climate change (closeness to sea or
river).
Selection of most vulnerable households. A group of 400 households was pre-determined
using statistical procedure of 95% confidence; and considering potential drop-out and nonresponse. A number of 20 HHs as allocated to each village, which were chosen from the HHs
identified at the bottom of wellbeing ranking in each village.
1.4. E. Quality Assurance
Experienced staff from the Concern’s partner organizations conducted both qualitative and
quantitative part of the study. They were trained by experienced staff from the external study team and
by the senior staff of Concern. Two research supervisors in Bangladesh and one in Orissa were
deployed to provide on-job support to the field study team.
1.5 Report’s Structure
The report is divided into eight sections. First section presents an overview of the research problem
and methodology of the study. Section two deals the immediate and broad context of the study
locations highlighting climate change risk, vulnerability and key policy development. Section three to
seven presents results of the study by categories of indicators. Section eight puts together a set of
conclusions and recommendations.
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Section 2: Context of the Study Location
This section presents an overview of context of the Bay of Bengal coast with specific focus on climate
change. These pieces of information should be used to interpret the baseline results. The context is
shaped by the following key characteristics.
A. Climate change has already become among the main factors acerbating poverty in the coast of the
Bay of Bengal and the study locations.
B. Clearly, poverty and climate vulnerability share similar cause in all contexts. And, vulnerability to
existing hazards can play a similar role in causing future climatic risks at various scales. A range of
physical and social factors contribute to the vulnerability of populations in the study locations.
C. Climate change policies and actions continue to emerge in both Orissa state and Bangladesh.
Emergence of new climate change actors in both the countries play an important role in shaping
climate change policy and actions. Climate change planning, institutional arrangement and funding
mechanisms now have taken the centre stage of development policy making. Evolving funding
opportunities for climate change mitigation and adaptation created incentives toward more climate
resilient development, while many policies exist that acerbate climate change impact.
2.1 The big picture in Bay of Bengal: Poverty and climate change nexus
A quarter of world population live in the countries on the Bay of Bengal and 400 million people live in
the catchment area of the Bay of Bengal2. The Bay is rich in natural resources—and gifted with some
of the world largest rivers, biggest delta (Bangladesh) and one of the largest mountain range (HimalayaHindu Kush mountain range). It has also the largest concentration of poverty in the world.
Poverty reduction is high on the development agenda in India and Bangladesh - achieving significant
reduction of poverty in recent years. Incident of poverty has been reduced to 32.5% (BBS 2010) in
2011 from 51% in 1995. Progress is also made in reduction in child mortality, improvement in
nutrition, literacy and access to cleaner water or environment in recent years. On the other hand,
Orissa’s Human Development Index (HDI) increased from 0.27% in 1981 to 0.40% in 2001 (GoO
2004). Nevertheless, poverty remains a key challenge for both India and Bangladesh - Orissa too. More
than 50 million people are still living in extreme poverty (BBS 2006) in Bangladesh while Orissa with a
population of 40 million has the highest incidence of poverty with 47% people living below poverty
line and almost 90% live in the rural area (Merylyn, H and Vaideeswaran, S 2010).
Table 2.1: Selected Human Development Indicators of India and Bangladesh
Country
HDI Rank
Bangladesh
India
139
127
% population without
sustainable access to
improved water source
in 2000
3
16
% population living
below US$1 a day
(most recent year
during 1990-2002)
36
34.7
Daily per
capita
calorie supply
(Kcal) in 1999
2201
2417
Source: Human Development Report 2007/2008. UNDP.
2 http://na.nefsc.noaa.gov/lme/text/lme34.htm
17
The 10th Plan of the Government of India has set an 8% growth target to achieve rapid reduction in
income poverty and improvement in human development (UNDP 2008). The 11th five-year-plan of
Orissa (GoO 2010) targets to achieve sustainable, shared economic growth and accelerating human
development. Bangladesh also sets an ambitious goal to become middle income country by 2020. But
occurrence of recent mega disasters in the coast of Orissa and Bangladesh and emergency of climate
change as top international development agenda led these countries to reappraise their development
priorities.
Climate change is now among the key drivers that perpetuate poverty. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change predicts South Asia and the Coastal Region of Bay of Bengal as among the most
vulnerable regions to climate change in the world. This would not only cause an increase in mortality
risk from increased frequency and intensity of disasters, but also alter the bio-physical and hydrometeorological character - such as changes in precipitation, increase in salinity intrusion and the rise in
sea level leading to the displacement of millions of people. World Bank (WB) estimated that
agriculture, on which majority of the population depends, will be severely affected by changes in the
monsoon dynamics caused by changes in the conditions of the Bay of Bengal and the Himalayas.
Cyclonic pattern has been changing in South Asia where more than 750 million people (75% of
regional total) have been affected by weather related disasters since 1990 (WB undated). Cyclone
frequency during November and May over the North Indian Ocean has increased two fold in last 122
years (Singh, O. P., Khan, T. M., & Rahman, M. S. 2000). Bangladesh and India already tops the
UNDP’s list of countries exposed to high cyclonic mortality risks i.e. 75.5% in Bangladesh and 10.8%
in India (United Nations. (2009). Nicholls et al. (1995) estimates that 42% of the nearly 1.9 million
cyclone-related deaths in the past two centuries have occurred in Bangladesh and over 27% have
occurred in India; while Orissa alone experienced 27% of total cyclone landfall in India (SMRC 1998).
People’s exposure to cyclone is most likely to increase with climate change. Using the Bay of Bengal in
a hydrodynamic model, the WB (WB 2010) estimates that cyclone exposed area in Bangladesh will
increase by 26% and the affected population will grow as high as 122% by 2050. Coastal population
now experience more frequent and intense coastal flooding, high tide and incident of drought.
The IPCC already documented the observed sea level rise as high as 25cm over the last 100 years (IPCC
1996). On the other hand, the North Indian Ocean sea level shows a linear increasing trend of 0.31
millimetres per year between 1958 and 2000 (Rabbani et. al.). This projected sea level rise could flood
the homes of millions of people living in the low-lying areas of South Asia. The potential impacts of a
1 meter sea level rise includes inundation of 5,763 square kilometres in India (TERI 1996); and
Bangladesh would be worst affected by the sea level rise in terms of loss of land (IPCC 2007).
Salinity intrusion has already become a significant problem in agriculture, the availability of drinking
water and other health hazards. Salinity is already changing the poverty map of Bangladesh making
salinity hit districts a newer poverty pocket (Daily Star 2011). According to Bangladesh Soil Salinity
Report (SRDI 2009) prepared by Soil Research Development Institute (SRDI), there has been an
increase in the salinity affected agricultural land by 22% since 1973. The report also suggests significant
spread of salinity intrusion inside the coast and this has also intensified its levels. The level 5 (very
strong saline area) category of land has increased by 79%3 since 2000. Salinity has also affected the
coast of Orissa where at least 11.8% land has already become saline. A study conducted in four
According to SRDI's soil salinity report-2009, lands categorized as Level-5 (representing soil with very strongly
saline with some strongly saline category) was 157,088 ha in 2000 which has increased to 198,486 ha just within
nine years.
3
18
districts puts this figure at 1.4 % in Ganjam, 26.2 % in Puri, 29.7 % in Balasore and 36.4 % in Cuttack
(Planning Commission Government of India (1981).
Map 1: Bay of Bengal
19
2.2 Institutional response continue to emerge-pace is slow
There has been increasing recognition in India and Bangladesh that climate change is a threat to the
poverty reduction targets that tops the government’s agenda4. The Tenth Five Year Plan of India has a
detailed chapter on Disaster Management5 while policy makers in Bangladesh recognise that climate
change poses a serious threat to Bangladesh’s goal of becoming a middle income country by 2021.
This recognition led GoB to formulate its Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) and
establishment of a trust fund for its implementation to be financed by both national government and
international donors. On the other hand, the state government of Orissa also formulated a climate
change action plan in 2010. Although very young, these planning processes sparked the process of
climate change integration into development planning as well as investment on climate change
mitigation and adaptation actions.
Historically, the governments of Bangladesh and India made substantial investment on agriculture,
disaster management and water management in the current context of climate variability. After the
1999 super cyclone in Orissa, the state government and other development agencies intensified their
efforts to put in place improved disaster defence at local to national level. The OSDMA was created
together with higher investment on cyclone preparedness and building of cyclone shelters. The
government has also recently initiated a number of projects such as National Cyclone Risk Mitigation
Project-I and National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP) to strengthen disaster preparedness
such as embankments, cyclone shelters and early warning for the coastal community. Bangladesh
Ministry of Food and Disaster Management have so far invested USD 10 billion on disaster
management in the country (BCCAP 2009). The country has well developed early warning system,
trained volunteers, local disaster management committees and cyclone shelters; however they remain
inadequate to the risk posed by cyclones. A significant sum of public funding has also been allocated to
upgrade the country’s disaster defence system in Bangladesh.
There have been efforts by non-state development actors - UN, NGOs and donors - to engage in
DRR and climate change adaptation in both the countries. National and international NGOs, Red
Cross System and UN agencies are increasingly integrating climate change into their DRR efforts in
both the coasts, and specifically in all the study locations.
In India, the 10th Plan of the government has set a high growth target of 8% to induce rapid reduction in
income poverty and attain ambitious human development goals. In Bangladesh, the percentage of people below
the poverty line has decreased from 70.6 percent to 32 since 1973-74. The government plans to halve the
proportion of people below the poverty line by 2010.
5 Disaster Management in India: a Status Report. Government of India Ministry of Home Affairs National
Disaster Management Division.
4
20
Section 3: Climate change and disaster
This section of the report presents a summary of the impact of climate change in the life, livelihood
and physical environment in the study locations. This highlights current knowledge about climate
change among the most vulnerable people and they way they see nature and degree of the impact.
3.1. Knowledge of Vulnerable People about Present and Future Climatic
Risk
Over past few years there has been growing awareness about climate change among policy makers,
academia and media in India and Bangladesh. Occurrence of three major disasters in 2007 (cyclone
Sidr and flood in 2007; and cyclone Aila in 2009) climate change has become centre of public
discussion. Many NGOs working in Bangladesh also adopted climate change into their programmes
and discourse. But this study found that such shift in discourse and discussion did not reach to the
people. Only 42% most vulnerable people in Bangladesh and 86% people from the same
category actually heard about ‘climate change’.
Whether people in the study villages heard about climate change or not, they observed
changes in the climate. Almost all the vulnerable HHs in Bangladesh coast and 68% HHs in
Orissa coast observed some change in the climate. Vulnerable people have very high level of
understanding about nature and degree about climatic risk as presented in figure 3.1.
People in the study villages also have some understanding about how changes in the climate have
already affected their life and livelihoods. But the study did not find any difference between Orissa and
Bangladesh coast in terms of nature of the impacts but there is considerable difference in the degree of
the impacts (see figure 3.1). The table 3.1 presents nature of climate change impacts as observed by the
study communities (please also see table 4.1 for specific climate change risk).
Table 3.1: Observed climate change in study locations in the context of South Asian
Climate Change Prediction Climate change impacts
Observed Climate Change Impacts by the
for South Asia
documented by other
communities in Orissa and Bangladesh
studies
coasts
 Land and sea surface
 Frequency of cyclone has 1. Bio-Physical environment changed
through increased salinity intrusion in
temperatures
been increasing during
soil and water; sea and river erosion;
increased. (IPCC AR4)
last century.
changes in the sea behaviour and
 Altered precipitation
 Mean sea level rise
shrinking of forest and bio-diversity
and hydrological
slightly less than 1 mm/yr
degradation.
character.
in the Indian coast
2. Increased frequency of both high
(Unnikrishnan).
 Cyclonic activities will
intensity and low intensity hazards such
increase in intensity
 Temperature increasing
as cyclone, flooding, drought and tidal
and frequency.
in both India and
surges.
Bangladesh.
 Accelerated global sea
3. Severe impact on food and nutrient
level rise and higher
 Intensity of salinity
security through decreased crop yield;
extreme water levels
increased in the coast of
destruction in fisheries, livestock and
may have acute effects
Bay of Bengal (Allison et
homestead based farming.
on human populations
al., 2003).
4.
Increased health hazard and hardship
(IPCC b)
 Other significant
among women and children.
implication through
 Serious coastal flooding
21

problems, erosion and
salinity intrusion.
Crop yield would
reduce by 30% in South
Asia. IPCC.
recent disasters [e.g. 40%
school dropouts in Orissa
and (HDR) and 800
schools destroyed since
1970 (Alam)]
5.
Evidence of climate change becoming a
factor for displacement and migration
22
Figure 3.1 Nature and Degree of climate change impact observed by vulnerable people
Coast of Orissa
Severe
Moderate
80
60
40
20
0
Uncertain
80
60
40
20
0
River or sea Erosion increased
Highest of sea increased
Salinity in drinking water
Salinity in our Farm
More cyclones
More flood
More tidal surge
Water logging
Bangladesh Coast
Moderate
0
20 40 60 80
100
Severe
0
20 40 60 80
100
Uncertain
River or sea Erosion increased
Highest of sea increased
Salinity in drinking water
Salinity in our Farm
More cyclone
More flood
More Tidal surge
Water logging
23
3.1.1. Changes in the Bio-physical Environment
The study population experience salinity intrusion - in the ground and surface water systems and in
agricultural land - in varying degrees determined by their physical environment. The situation is most
acute in the villages located in Satkhira and Khulna district which were affected by cyclone Aila in
2009. Moderate problems still persists in the study villages of Patuakhali and Barguna; although there
are pockets of villages close to sea and rivers with acute salinity problem. In Orissa, the population
experienced salinity problems in combination with water logging which continues to increase in
severity. Salinity decreases crop yield, reduces availability of fresh water and increases incidences of
diseases. For example, people in 10 villages in Bangladesh have started buying their drinking
water, which has become an additional expense on the poor households.
River erosion has been increased in all the study villages in both coasts at varying scales causing
considerable impact on land ownership of the poor households. Many HHs have already become
landless with significant social and economic implications on the local economy. Erosion is most acute
in all study villages located close to the sea and river. Erosion is also reducing agricultural land, where
89% of the most vulnerable households in Bangladesh do not have any while the figure for India
comes to 46.9%. Many farmers already grow their crops on land close to the sea or river (land
located within 1 km of the sea - 40.6% in India and 6.3% in Bangladesh). Since the agricultural
lands of the southwest coast households are located outside the embankments, they are unprotected.
In Orissa, only one third of the agricultural land is not protected. A significant portion of farmers in
the study villages in Orissa are changing their livelihood and some have opted for migration.
While sea level rise is scientifically observed in Bangladesh and India, people experience it in many
different ways. Most people reported to have observed the coastline moving further inland and
they also observed an increase in land erosion. There is a location; variance i.e. the villages in
Patuakhali and Barguna are most vulnerable due to their closeness to sea. ‘Sea coming inward’ has
become a phenomenon that leaves people with an extremely high fear and anxiety about
losing their ancestral homes.
The fishermen in both coasts are experiencing a decline in fish variety and catch for which
they have blamed an increase in the roughness of the sea, reduction of mangrove and changes
in climatic factors.
3.1.2 Increase in Disaster Frequency
The study populations in both coasts experience multiple hazards some of which are shared and some
that are common in nature. The shared hazards include cyclone and sea level rise, while common
hazards include flooding, drought, tidal surges, and coastal erosion. The Bay of Bengal remains the
source of majority of these hazards while intensity of common hazards varies due to an array of
localized factors.6
All study HHs were affected by at least one disaster in last 15 years. However, the number of times
that they were affected by disaster varies largely by the country - more than 50% HHs in
Bangladesh coast have been affected more than three times during the same period. The study
population in Bangladesh experienced two mega cyclones since 2007; and in Orissa, Jagatsinghpur
Shared hazards have the same origin i.e. cyclones that affect Orissa and Bangladesh are formed in the Bay of
Bengal. Common hazards are same hazards with different origins.
6
24
experienced the super cyclone in 1999 while Kendrapra was hit by a cyclone in 1971.Common hazards
reported by the people in Orissa and Bangladesh’s southwest coast include tidal surge7, flood and
drought. The flooding has been reported beneficial by some villagers in Orissa, where salinity is a
major problem as it washes out the salinity contamination in water and soil. The frequency of drought
is increasing in Orissa with major consequences on crop, livestock and poultry.
The increased frequency and intensity of the hazards alters risk exposure of the coastal communities
already in the top list of countries with cyclone mortality risks index (UNDP). This will increase the
potential affected population by 177%. Alam et. al. (2009) suggested that increase in localized and low
intensity hazards (such as sea tide) can increase vulnerability to high impact hazards (such as cyclone
and flood) as they weaken disaster protection infrastructures such as embankments.
The table below, adopted from Alam et. al. (2008) presents the implication of changes in pattern and
nature of hazards brought by climate change.
Table 3.2: Implication of increased hazard on poor people
Climate change implication in
disaster
Pattern
Frequency increased
Nature
Cumulative impact of low impact hazard
increased
Less benefit from disasters
Intensity of high impact hazard
increased
Unpredictability of all hazards increased
Impact of changing pattern and nature of hazard on
people
 Reduced recovery time/deepening poverty
 Exhausted social capital
 Supply falls short to demand: aid, assistance and
care






Geographical coverage of disaster increased
Out migration likely
People likely to lose natural resources for their
livelihood
Vulnerability to high impact hazard increased
Community assets are not withstanding
Current HH preparedness may not be able to adapt
to likely scale of disaster
3.1.3 Food and Nutrition Security
Rain-fed agriculture i.e. paddy cultivation, fishing and livestock is the major source of livelihood for
the study population. These are becoming increasingly exposed to climate change through salinity,
erosion, tidal surges and cyclone. Up to 85% people living in rural Orissa are dependent on agriculture
and at least 60% of agricultural activities depend on rain. Similarly, rain dependency characterizes the
agriculture in Bangladesh coast. Almost all study villages in Bangladesh can only grow one crop in the
month of November.
People also identified height and duration of water surge increasing. The height and duration covered before
was: 8ft and 4 months in 2005; 8ft and 4.5 months in 2006; 9ft and 4.5 months in 2007; and 10ft and 5 months in
2008. The trend has become such that nowadays the second water surge comes right after the occurrence of the
first. So one surge overlaps the other and the area remain under water for an extended period. People of this area
experience flood for 6 months and the rest of the year they face drought.
7
25
Crop yield has been substantially reduced in all study villages due to a number of factors
related to change in the climate and in particular to salinity intrusion. This is prevalent in all
study villages in Bangladesh although its degree varies. Khulna and Satkhira districts have experienced
total loss of land fertility because of increased salinity in soil and water. A number of villages (four out
of six) in Patuakhali and Barguna also have salinity problems affecting the productivity. These areas
have become new pockets of poverty marking a change in the geographical distribution of poverty8.
Soil Research Development Institute (SRDI ) study finds that land with severe salinity (level 5) has
increased to 198,486 ha from 157,088 ha in 2000. David and Amit (2008) indicate that a quarter of
four Orissa districts - Balasore, Cutiack, Puri and Ganjam - have been affected by salinity. Baseline
study in Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara highlights similar salinity problem for agriculture. The farmers
reported decrease in paddy production which is due to lack of rain in recent years.
The second reason is the unavailability of fresh water for irrigation. Lack of fresh water from upstream
during dry season has forced farmers to grow Aman only in the monsoon. This situation has increased
the dependency of farmers on the conditions in the monsoon season; however, even the monsoon
even cannot help farmers in areas where salinity is severe (e.g. villages affected by Aila).
Cyclone also destroys crops as the cyclone season overlaps with the cropping seasons of the study
locations. Cyclone Sidr for example, destroyed all the standing crop in an area of 1.6 million acres. The
Orissa super cyclone also caused a similar problem in 1999. Sand casting brought in by tidal surges and
cyclones have also been mentioned by farmers as a major threat in villages recently affected by cyclone
Aila and Sidr.
Homestead based gardening and fruit production constitutes to almost 16% of the income or
expenditure saving of rural households (especially for FHHs) in Bangladesh (CPD 2004). This farming
and fruit production also provides as a major source of nutrient in the diet of children in rural
households. The villages in Khulna and Satkhira experienced 100% destruction of homestead based
fruit and vegetable production due to salinity brought in by cyclone Aila, a condition which persisted
even at the time of the study. Although the study population in Orissa did not experience acute nature
of the problem, their homestead gardens had been destroyed by the super cyclone in1999. In many
villages, people are not able to grow kitchen garden due to regular flooding, tidal surges and salinity.
Climate change has a significant impact on livestock. Livestock population substantially declined in
cyclone Sidr9 and Aila with similar impacts felt after the Orissa super cyclone. While the affluent
people in some villages in Sidr affected areas were able to recover domestic animals, the poorer people
due to lack of fodder were left with no animal at all in both Aila and Sidr affected areas. Increased
salinity affected supply and prices of fodder. The experience was similar in Orissa where the super
cyclone killed as high as 90% of domestic animals that people were not able to recover (citation
required from Orissa Livestock study).
8
Professor Wahiduddin Mahmud quoted in Daily Star.
9 Large numbers of cattle, buffalos, goats and poultry have been killed. The GoB estimates that nearly 382,000 livestock animals were killed; the large majority of these are
believed to be cattle. Livestock losses represent not only a loss of critical household assets, with an associated loss to wealth and income, but also a loss in milk production
for own consumption. Approximately 2.2 million are in need of food assistance, both in terms of dry food (first 1-2 weeks), then rice, and finally a more complete food aid
basket with pulses and cooking oil for a 2-3 month period.
26
3.1.4. Specific Impact on Women and Children
Climate change impacts such as bio-diversity degradation, food insecurity and increasing disasters have
affected already fragile human security of women in both study locations. Traditional and modern
gender role makes women specific and more vulnerable and less capable to adapt with climate change.
Consequences are disproportionate---increase in violence against women during and after a disaster;
increase in unpaid care work such as collection of water and fuel; marginalization in labour market;
girls being dropped out from education; deterioration of reproductive health due to less intake of food
and water; and increase in unplanned migration and trafficking of women and girls. Women also
receive less information than women and increase in workload prevents women from participating in
the formal decision making. More women die in disasters not because they are physically weak but
social inequality. A 2006 study of 141 natural disasters by the London School of Economics found that
when economic and social rights are fulfilled for both sexes, the same number of women and men die
in disasters.
The baseline study documented a range of specific and additional impacts of climate change on
women and children. Existing gender role and inequality in both coasts make women specifically
vulnerable to climate change. The impact is experienced by women on three specific areas: direct
impact on available economic activities, increase in hardship and reproductive health.
The first impact is on women’s economic activities which are considerably hampered by climate
change in most study villages. Many women are reported to have lost control over their income due to
changes in biophysical environment, acerbated by other development factors such as imposition of
new forest conservation laws and expansion of commercial shrimp farming. Women also mentioned
about increase in workload to manage food for their families. For example, in Bagapatia in Orissa,
women used to make mats using Kendu leaves collected from the mangrove forest. Now, with
resources becoming less and with new restrictions in place, they cannot collect Kendu leaves and
produce mats. Similarly, the effect on homestead based agriculture force women to take up hazardous
income generating options such as collecting shrimp fry from the sea.
The second impact is related to increased hardships that were particularly mentioned in Bangladesh.
Women and young children are currently engaged in collecting water from distant sources (as
high as 60%) due to unavailability of water sources near their homes.
The third impact is on the reproductive health of women with deterioration of nutrition as
major cause in both the coasts. The lack of health facilities in Bangladesh and the large distance to
health facilities in Orissa are two other causes adding to the deteriorating health conditions. As
drinking water gets expensive, many women started drinking less water. Finally, prolonged stay in
saline water for fish fry collection not only causes physical stress and social insecurity but also
puts a strain on their reproductive health.
27
Table 3.3 Additional impact of climate change on women and girls
Major Climate Change
Impact
Salinity contamination in
groundwater and surface
water
Land is becoming saline
and gradually
approaching inland
Loss of agriculture land
due to increased sea and
river erosion
Specific and additional impact on women







Increase in frequency
and severity of
hydrological events.





Increased hardships in collecting water and fuel wood from
distant sources causing health deterioration and mental stress; and
increases social insecurity.
Drinking water intake reduced and hygiene practice deteriorated with severe consequences on reproductive health.
Degradation in the natural resources has restricted income
opportunities for women.
Increased salinity in the homestead creating nutritional deficiency
as they can’t do gardening anymore.
Food security for women and female headed HHs reduced and
become uncertain.
Women pursuing hazardous livelihood such as shrimp fry
collection causing serious physical and mental stress.
Health problems drawn mainly from the nutritional deficiency
and hazardous livelihoods.
Temporary and permanent migration increased among women.
Lack of training about DRR and early warning makes women to
disasters causing increasing death of women.
Female headed HHs are not able to recover from past disasters.
Women cannot engage themselves in the community decision
making due to increase in workload.
Increase in drop-out from school and early marriage among
women due to poverty in post disaster circumstances.
3.1.5. Displacement and Migration
The IPCC 4th Assessment Report highlighted the likelihood of out-migration due to climate change in
the low-lying areas (IPCC 2007). Other available studies in Bangladesh estimated displacement of 43
million people if sea level rise comes to 88cm. Ahmed and Neelormi (2008) estimated as high as
225,000 people affected each year due to salinity, river erosion, water logging and storm surge. A
Greenpeace study estimated 50 million people likely to be displaced in the coastal regions due to
climate change10. The study estimated likelihood of 4 million climate related out-migration from
Orissa.
Disruption of livelihood due to recent disaster, decrease in agricultural productivity and loss of
household assets have led to increase in out-migration in the study locations. Although, it is not
possible to accurately present the degree of such increase due to lack of pre-disaster migration data.
Migration is a usual response to poverty in rural part of Bangladesh and Orissa. What is happening is
an addition of climate change dimension in the decision making of migration. There are insignificant
but increasing evidence of cross-broader migration in areas affected by cyclone Aila.
10
Climate Migrants in South Asia: estimates and solution. Greenpeace.
28
Migration of people is increasingly taking place from study locations both in Bangladesh and Orissa.
Often, this is induced by loss of livelihood options, cultivable and inhabitable lands due to saline
intrusion and inundation by tidal waters. While many are partial/seasonal migrants, moving to cities
during dry season, others have been temporarily displaced to living on road sides or embankments due
to loss of their houses and assets in the disasters. The situation is acute in Amtola in Barguna.
3.2. Impact of most recent disasters on life and livelihoods
The entire study population is exposed to regular cyclonic winds and associated surges but
mortality may vary by characteristics of the hazards and vulnerability of the population at a
particular time. Therefore extreme caution should be taken while using disaster mortality as an
indicator for impact assessment of a climate change project. However, factors that contribute to the
mortality can be used as a wider indicator for the impact assessment. The major factors that have
contributed to deaths in past disasters in both the coasts include:
A. Access to early warning and risk perception. Analysis on cyclone Sidr by Alam et.al. (2008)
concluded that most death occurred due to decision made by the people about when and
whether to go to cyclone shelter. He also concluded that dissemination of early warning was
not the major problem but people’s interpretation for taking an action. Many people did not
know about the meaning of “signal 10” and as a result they tried to relate the warning trend
according to their observations of immediate weather conditions. A similar situation also took
place during cyclone Nargis in Myanmar11 and Orissa Cyclone 199912
B. Access to safe place for taking shelter. Availability and access to cyclone shelter is an important
determinant for the death in a context where cyclone resistant buildings are not available. This
is evident from research that late start for the cyclone shelter or taking shelter in a weak
infrastructure was a major cause of death (Alam 2009). There were only 26 cyclone shelters in
the coast of Orissa before the cyclone of 1999.
C. Character of a hazard such as wind speed and coverage of an impact area.
D. Time of landfall. A night-time cyclone may cause more death than day time. Landfall during high
tide may increase height of tide. For example, cyclonic mortality has been significantly high by
cyclones that make landfall during high tide (cyclone in 1970, 1991) compared to cyclone Sidr
in 2007.
E. Level of preparedness at HH and institutional level. Level of preparedness at HH and community
level help reducing cyclonic death. Comparing number of areas with and without pre-cyclone
disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, Alam concluded that people were more likely to go to
cyclone shelters on time in the areas where DRR programmes existed. Further, pluralism in
means and actors of dissemination helped people in reviewing their perception; often helped
those to move faster in BCDPC area compared to others.
F. Natural protection such as mangroves. Saudamini Dasa et.al. (2009) concluded that mangrove has
helped reduction of death significantly by the Orissa super cyclone.
11
12
Author’s personal communication with the Director Meteorology Department of Myanmar.
This was also a case for Orissa Super Cyclone.
29
The table below presents the key characteristics of the past cyclone in Orissa and Bangladesh and their
impact on four levels - overall impact, impact on study districts, impact on the study villages and
impact on the most vulnerable people.
Table 3.4 Impact of most recent disaster on study population
Character of Base Disasters District
Impact on
Name
Overall District
Cyclone Sidr
Death: 457
Injured: 8500
Houses Damaged:
53,291
HH affected:
252,300
Barguna
Death: 1292
Injured: 16310
Missing: 26
Houses: 95,412
HH affected:
217,279
Death: 14
Injury: 50
House: 60%
Crop destroyed:
100%
Death: 9
Injury: 25%
House destroyed: 26%
School day loss: 78%
Crop lost
Wage lost: 73 days/HH
Khulna
Death: 59
Injured: 5357
Houses: 105767
HH affected;
128,229
Crops damaged:
2045 Acre
Death: 57
Injured: 543
Houses Damaged:
58721
HH affected:
122,672
Fully Damaged
Crops: 3146 Acre
Death: 469
Death: 1
House destroyed:
99%
Crop destroyed:
100%
Asset destroyed
(%): 100
Death: 2
House destroyed:
93%
Crop destroyed:
100%
Asset destroyed
(%): 98
Death: 1
Injury: 13%
House destroyed: 26%
School day loss: 61%
Wage lost: 88 days/HH
Death: 0
Injury: 10-20%
Disability: 10-20%
House (fully)
destroyed: 82.5%
Crop destroyed
(%): 98.3%
Asset destroyed
(%): 41.6%
Death: 3
Injury: 57%
House destroyed: 97%
School day loss: 81%
Wage lost: 36 days/HH
Death: 8119
Death: 6
Injury: 30-40%
Disability: 30-40%
House (fully)
Overall impact:
Death 3300 people,
affected 8.7 million and
costing 1.7 billion and 2.6%
GDP
Occurrence: 25 May 2009
Time: 1200 hours
Wind speed: 110km/h
Height of tide: 8m max
Category: 1 cyclone
Satkhira
Overall impact:
Death 330, affected 3.9
million people, economic
cost $40.7 million.
Orissa Super Cyclone
Kendrapara
Occurrence: October 25
1999
Landfall time:
Wind speed: 260km/h
Tide height:
Category: 5
Overall impact:
Death 15,000, affected
people 19.5 million and
economic cost $4.5 billion.
Vulnerable HH in the
villages
Death: 0
Injury: 47%
Fully House destroyed:
24%
School day loss: 61%
Wage lost: 20 days/HH
Patuakhali
Occurrence: Nov 15 2007
Landfall time: 1815
Wind Speed: 260 km/h
Height of tide: 10m max
Category: 5 equivalent
Cyclone Aila
Combined in the
village
Death: 5
Injury: 96
House destroyed:
30%
Crop destroyed:
97%
Jagatsinghp
ur
Death: 3
Injury: 8%
House destroyed: 24%
School day loss: 39%
Wage lost: 180
days/HH
Death: 4
Injury: 43%
House destroyed: 4%
30
destroyed: 95%+
Crop destroyed
(%): 100%
Asset destroyed
(%): 80%
School day loss: 80%
Wage lost: 114
days/HH
31
Section 4: Vulnerability to climate change
This section presents two important analyses - an overview of the vulnerability of the study population
and presents the result from the study on specific indicators.
4.1 Physical Feature of the Study Villages
As a wider coast of Bangladesh is part of deltaic plains of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna
Rivers and is located on the banks of various tidal rivers and within close proximity of sea (10 km), the
land-water interface is intense in most of the Bangladesh study villages. Similarly, the villages in Orissa
are located with a close proximity to Devi-Kathajodi, Brahmani and Baitarani rivers. All the rivers in
both Bangladesh and Orissa coasts experience increased siltation (that reduces the capacity of water
flow), which increases river bank erosion and flooding.
The villages of Khulna and Satkhira are located within seven kilometres of the Sundarbans, the world’s
largest mangrove forest. Similarly, the villages in Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur are located in close
proximity to mangrove swamps and the Bhitarkanika National Park, respectively. There is no forest in
or around the targeted villages of Patuakhali and Barguna.
Most of the study villages in Bangladesh are protected by embankments from high tide and cyclone
storm surges. However, occasional breaches in embankments due to lack of proper maintenance and
poor shrimp farming practices cause saline water to come inside the villages.
4.2 Settlement Pattern
More than 90% households in Orissa and southwest coast live within 1 km of the coast while at least
half of the surveyed population in the southwest coast in Bangladesh live on the shore and slightly
more than 80% live within 1 km of the sea or river in Orissa.
The people living outside the embankment are significantly more exposed to cyclone and tidal surge.
As high as 25% people in Orissa live outside the embankment, while the figure is significantly lower in
Bangladesh (5%). However, around 20% of the respondents in southwest coast Bangladesh live on
embankments.
Location of agricultural determines HHs exposure to climatic risk. The survey indicates that 89% of
the most vulnerable households in Bangladesh do not have any agricultural land while the figure for
India comes to 46.9%. Land located within 1 km of the coastline is 40.6% in India and 6.3% in
Bangladesh. All households in the southwest coast have agricultural lands that are located outside of
the embankments, thus unprotected. In Orissa one third of the agricultural land is not protected by
embankment.
32
Figure 4.1: Distance of the settlement from sea/river
Location of House from Sea/River
Bangladesh Coast
Orissa Coast
6.69%
6.96%
9.49%
52.3%
41%
83.54%
On the shore
Within 1 Km of sea or river
Within 2-5Km of the river/sea
On the shore
1 Km of sea or river
Within 2-5Km of the river/sea
4.3 Livelihood Characteristics
The major sources of income and livelihood of the study population are highly sensitive to climate
change. These include agriculture, fisheries, animal husbandry and off-farm activities. While there is a
big number of people dependent on forest resources, in Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur in Orissa, and
Khulna and Satkhira in Bangladesh, they experience increasing restriction through conservation efforts
by their governments. For example, establishment of Bhitarkanika National Park in 1975 imposed
restrictions on collecting forest resources such as Kendu leaves from the mangrove forest in Orissa.
33
Figure 4.2 Composition of livelihood in the study location
4.4 Fragile Housing
Vulnerability of Bangladesh’s coastal population is constructed by the fragile structure of houses and
unavailability of buildings resistant to surges and winds, which are among the key reasons for cyclone
related deaths. Likewise people do not have appropriate cyclone resistant animal sheds to keep their
livestock which are considered as the most valuable assets by the population.
The forest and agricultural raw products are the primary materials used in building houses in all the
villages. Concrete houses, even though they exist, are highly insignificant in number. Even before
being affected by cyclones many people in Bangladesh used to live on embankments, a practice which
has increased significantly after Sidr and Aila. People in six villages in Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur
have raised the ground to build their houses.
Almost 50% people in the southwest coast of Bangladesh and 57.5% in Orissa live in self owned
dwellings. As high as a quarter of the surveyed population live on government khas land in both
countries. Raw natural materials are used to construct households in both the coasts which make
houses specifically vulnerable to cyclones. The figure 4.4 presents the construction materials used in
housing. CI sheets as roofing materials, which increases the vulnerability by causing death and injury
during a cyclone, are used by a majority of households in the coasts (90%) and Orissa (11%).
34
Figure 4.3 Use of construction materials in the house
Orissa Coast
Bangladesh Coast
80
Wall Materials
60
Wall Materials
74.38
40
40
60
60.42
18.75
20
20
25
9.58
6.25
4.58
.63
0
0
.42
Mud
Wood
Local materials
Mud
Wood
Local materials
Tin/CI sheets
Cement/brick
Bangladesh Coast
Orissa Coast
Roof Materials
Roof Materials
Tin/CI sheets
Cement/brick
20
20
40
40
60
80
60
85.63
11.25
0
0
3.13
Tin/CI sheets
Cement/brick
Wood
Local materials
Tin/CI sheets
Cement/brick
Bangladesh Coast
Orissa Coast
Pillar Materials
Pillar Materials
50.63
50
50
49.17
43.33
30
30
40
40
43.75
10
20
20
10
Wood
Local materials
7.5
0
0
5.63
Wood
Local materials
Cement/brick
Wood
Local materials
Cement/brick
35
4.5 Access to cyclone shelter
Adequate and ready cyclone shelters, timely and accessible early warning information and available
killas (shelters for livestock) are the three most critical foundations accountable for the success and
failure of any safeguard against cyclones. A typical cyclone shelter is a multi-storied concrete building
that allows water surges to flow underneath and can provide temporary shelter to 500-700 people at a
time. The GoB started building cyclone shelters following the 1970 cyclone which killed half a million
people. There are currently 2,591 cyclone shelters in the coast of Bangladesh with capacity to
accommodate 2.8 million people or 7.3% of the coastal population (WB 2010). However, cyclone
shelter concentration is significantly lower in the southwest coast compared to the southeast coast13. At
the time of Orissa Super cyclone there were only 23 cyclone shelters, a number which has now
increased to 43. Orissa State Disaster Management Authority (OSDMA) has also built 5,350 new
primary schools that are used as shelters during cyclones14.
This study finds that more than 55% of the study population (Bangladesh 54% and Orissa 57%) do
not have access to cyclone shelters, while 21% can access some sort of shelter within 2 km of their
homes.
For people living in remote areas, distance becomes a hurdle and takes even longer to reach the nearest
shelters given the muddy roads during cyclones or storm surges. 13% of the study population
mentioned bad road conditions to the cyclone shelter. A recent study (Alam 2007) in same Bangladesh
districts have identified a number of problems related to cyclone shelters: inadequate space within each
shelter, poor maintenance, weak structure, poor condition of approach road, dysfunctional water and
sanitation facilities, poor ventilation and lack of privacy for women.
As major cyclone shelters construction programme followed occurrence of cyclone in 1970 and 1991, which
hit Southeast coast of Bangladesh.
14 Besides, more than 500,000 cyclone-resistant houses have been built under the Indira Awas Yojana (IAY)
programme, a special government scheme. In addition, nearly 10,000 primary school buildings have been
strengthened and almost 900 high schools have been provided with concrete buildings.
13
36
Figure 4.4 Access to cyclone shelter in Bangladesh and Orissa
Access to CycloneFlood Shelter
60
Orissa Coast
40
57.35
20
20.59
13.97
1.47
3.68
1.47
0
1.47
My house is pucca
Others
Cyclone shelter is too far
There is another safe place
Road condition is too bad
Cyclone shelter within 2km
There is no cyclone shelter in our village
Bangladesh Coast
60
Access to Cyclone/Flood Shelter
40
53.78
20
26.05
8.40
8.82
0
2.94
Cyclone shelter is too far
Another safe place in the village
Road condition is too bad
Cyclone shelter within 2km
No cyclone shelter in our village
37
4.6 Access to Early Warning
The governments in both the locations provide cyclone signals and flood early warning to the people
through radio and television. This information gets disseminated by various means and channels such
as the local government, local disaster committees and NGOs at the local level. Dedicated volunteers
of cyclone preparedness programme in Bangladesh and Red Cross in Orissa also help dissemination of
warnings. Study finds that almost all HHs have in their possession at least a radio, a mobile phone or a
television. At least half of the households in Orissa and a quarter in the Bangladesh coast have mobile
phones in their possession. Use of radio is popular in Orissa (22%) compared to Bangladesh (15%)
while a negligible number of HHs in both the coasts have a television in their possession (below 5%).
More than 60% HHs in both the locations receive cyclone early warning while there is a
significant regional variation (Orissa 80% and southwest coast 65%). There is also statistically
significant variation by district - Barguna (55%) being the lowest in Bangladesh and
Kendrapara (72%) in Orissa. While people do receive early warning but getting it on time has
been mentioned as a major problem in both the coasts (see figure 4.5). These correspond to the
historic investment on early warning. There was no major cyclone in Kendrapara since 1971 and early
warning system has been relatively weak in Barguna.
But there are challenges with the dissemination system: often people living in marginal areas, many of
them are women, do not get the information on time. Often as socio-cultural systems in Bangladesh
do not favour women’s mobility within public spheres such as marketplaces, women are less likely than
men to receive information about e.g. early warning, trainings, and assistance. The current means of
Early Warning dissemination is fragile and cannot reach all people in all circumstances. For example,
when the cyclone hits at night, the flag which is hoisted on the marked shelter building as an early
warning is not visible. Thus Early Waning does often not reach people living far away from shelters.
Receiving timely early warning is a critical factor for fishermen to decide whether to go back to land if
they are at sea and there is a cyclone warning. Radio is the only means for them to hear the warning.
Only a quarter of fishermen in both coasts carry radio on their boats while they go for fishing.
The data also indicates the presence of some sort of institutional presence in almost all villages in both
the coasts. Pluralistic channel, rather than a single one, of early warning dissemination help ensure
equitable access to the early warning by people. The figure 4.1 presents various challenges people
experience in accessing and understanding early warning.
4.7 Understanding Early Warning
Knowledge about cyclones, access to early warning, preparedness information and people’s ability to
make use of these, can significantly reduce the impact of cyclones and flooding.
While majority of the households can access early warning, their interpretation of the message they
receive remains an area of concern. As high as 40% vulnerable people in Bangladesh and 25% in
Orissa do not understand the meaning of the cyclone warning. A significant number of people
also do not know what they should do when they get the warning (fig 4.5). People’s perception
of risk has domination over making a decision on whether and what to do once people receive a
warning. The past studies suggest that the people often respond to early warning late or not at all when
their perception of risk does not match with the early warning that they receive. The result can be fatal.
While receiving early warning on time was not a problem, Alam (2007) argued that more people died in
cyclone Sidr because of people’s late response to the government warning (many people started going
38
to shelter during night at the time of cyclone’s landfall). This study, also indicate prevalence of
such risk factor in people’s mind as many believe (Bangladesh coast 30% and Orissa 66%) that
they would decide to go to cyclone shelter when warning match with their observation.
Fig 4.5 Problems vulnerable people experience to access and understand early warning
Bangladesh
Orissa
B an g l ad e sh Em p ty0
In di a Em pty0
Values
7 5.0
5 0.0
2 5.0
0 .0
Problems of getting early warning
We do not get on time
Warning does not match with our obs ervation
They give warning but no cyclone occur
They do not tell us what to do
We do not get them if we are at work in the sea
No res pons ible institution to provide the early warning
We do not unders tand the m eaning
We do not know what to do
Others
39
4.8 Summary of the Vulnerability
The table below presents a summary of the key risks and vulnerabilities against the climate change
impacts discussed earlier.
Table 4.1 Key climate risk and vulnerability
Major Climate Change
Risk to population groups
Impact
Salinity contamination
in groundwater and
surface water resulting
in scarcity of fresh
water, loss/change in
livelihood and
productivity of
agricultural lands






Land is becoming
saline and gradually
approaching inland
resulting in
loss/change in
livelihood and loss in
productivity in crop
production





Loss of (agriculture
and inhabitable) land
due to sea and river
erosion causing
migration, food and
shelter insecurity




Sweet water scarcity will increase.
Work load for women most likely
to increase at expense of their
participation in decision making at
various levels.
Long term negative impact on
health.
Crop yield will certainly be
reduced.
Temporary and permanent
migration will increase as a result
of loss of livelihood based in
agriculture.
Children’s access to quality
education will most likely to go
down.
Work load increase for women and
men with negative impact on
health
Crop yield reduced (introduction
of saline resistant varieties reduced
the risk)
Homestead based farming most
likely to be hampered, with high
consequence of nutrition security
for poor HHs.
Temporary and permanent
migration will increase as a result
of loss of livelihood based in
agriculture
Land productivity will permanently
decrease
Poor HHs become landless
(certainly)
Massive internal displacement and
migration (most likely)
Livelihood pattern may get change
(certainly)
Food and nutrition security go
down and coverage of safety net
Key Vulnerability to Climate Risk
and Exposures
1. Geo-physical location of land,
water sources and settlement
being close to the sea.
2. Existing gender role in the
society.
3. Lack of resources for poor
HHs to invest on water
conservations.
4. Limited public investment on
sweet water management and
supply of drinking water.
5. Poor HH lacking
information, knowledge, skills
and technologies to adapt
with change context.
1. Geo-physical location being
positioned close to the sea. In
addition, the villages lie
adjacent to rivers which at a
distant open to the Bay of
Bengal.
1. Geo-physical location being
positioned close to the sea.
2. Fragile infrastructures such as
partially damaged
embankments.
40
Increase in frequency
and severity of
hydrological Events.



increased (most likely)
Mortality will go high in short term
(likely) and permanent migration in
long term (most likely).
Poverty increased further among
most vulnerable HHs (most likely)
Eroded social capital and natural
resources (most likely)
1. High exposure of the
population due to settlements
being positioned close to the
sea.
2. Fragile infrastructures such as
partially damaged
embankments.
3. HHs are less able to produce
surplus income to invest on
preparedness.
4. Climate change is not
adequately factored into the
planning.
5. Limited public investment on
adaptation.
6. Most vulnerable people have
limited influence over DRR
and CCA planning.
41
Section 5: Coping and adaptation
5.1 Current Mitigation and Adaptation Activities
Vulnerable communities collectively and its members individually develop their own ways to deal with
exceptional circumstances caused by disasters, which is generally called coping mechanism or
strategy15. Coping strategies are very specific to culture and are governed by a range of available
resources, experiences and value system16. While there are specific forms of collective strategies
constructed by leadership, skills, available resources, knowledge, power and value system of the
community, not all individuals or households follow a similar strategy. Individuals fit into the collective
strategy based on their ability, knowledge and experience. Distinction between coping mechanism and
adaptation in relation to overall life and livelihood strategy of a community is an important issue to
factor into a coping strategy. In a given disaster context, a community’s regular life and livelihood
strategy may or may not be effective to deal with the existing or likely disasters; they may a need new
or revised strategy to deal with such contexts. Coping is the temporary form of strategy used by the
community until disaster circumstances become normal. When recurrent nature of disasters’ impact
cannot be withstood by existing coping mechanism and the community or individual needs to change
their regular life and livelihood strategy for a longer term, it is called adaptation.
While communities have been coping with changing nature and climate, a newer nature of
adaptive activities continue to emerge in the study locations in response to the key impacts of
climate change. The study categorised these activities into the following six broad types:
A. Adapting to shifting livelihood in response to change in bio-physical environment
B. Changes in personal choice and lifestyle at individual level
C. Researching and adapting to newer technologies for their livelihoods such as boat, water
harvesting, housing and agriculture
D. Organising institutional management such as water management, disaster preparedness
E. Re-organising local economy such as adapting to newer business, moving to off-farm activities
F. Adapting migration - both national and international - and investing on the preparation for
this
Table5.1: List of adaption activities by Key Impact and study location
Major Impact
Coping and Adaptation
Patuakhali and Barguna
Khulna and Satkhira
(Recent Disaster-Sidr)
(Recent Disaster-Aila)
Salinity
Intrusion in


Rain water harvesting.
Purchase of water for

Raising ducks and
swans (50% villages)
Kendrapara and
Jagatsinghpur
(Recent Disaster- Super
Cyclone)
 Introduction of selfmanaged drainage
15
Alam, Khurshid. 2006. Why should community coping mechanism be the centre of disaster reduction policy and
practices? Key note paper for CCDB south Asia conference on Community Coping Mechanism. www.khurshidalam.org
16
ibid
42
ground and
surface water
drinking purpose.


Salinity in land
and its gradual
intrusion inland.
.





Piloting new saline
tolerant paddy varieties
as well as changing
cropping pattern with
support from GoB and
NGOs.
Adopting multiple
livelihood options.
Introduction of small
scale water
management.
Engaging off-farm
activities by taking loan
from NGOs.
exploring deeper seas
with vessels and nets
for catching more fish




that are more
tolerant to salinity.
Reduction in use of
fresh water for
personal hygiene
purposes.
Purchase of water
for drinking
purpose.
Adopting small scale
homestead
gardening
Use of hand-pump
to irrigate during
dry-season.
Engaging off-farm
activities by taking
loan from NGOs.
exploring deeper
seas with vessels
and nets for
catching more fish










Sea and river
erosion
Increase in
frequency and
severity in
hydrological
events.




Shifting homes
Temporary migration
Change in livelihood
Community initiative to
reduce erosion.



Adopting cyclone
resistant technologies
such as homestead
raising, design and use
of materials.
More attention to
cyclone signals.
Changing design of
boats.







Shifting homes
Temporary
migration
Change in livelihood
Community
initiative to reduce
erosion.
Adopting cyclone
resistant
technologies such
as homestead
raising, design and
use of materials.
More attention to
cyclone signals.
Redesigning boats.



system.
Small scale water
management and use of
traditional knowledge to
drain out saline water.
Piloting saline resistant
crops with support from
NGOs.
Shifting to alternative
livelihood
Seasonal, permanent,
intra-district and crossborder migration.
permanently migrating
to other places in India
Pursuing off-farm
activities such as
vocational training
More people going
under safety net
programmes.
Establishing local
systems to retain
natural resources
Community groups
formed to protect forest
resources.
exploring deeper seas
with vessels and nets
for catching more fish
Community initiative to
reduce erosion.
Careful monitoring of
weather and climate
using indigenous
knowledge
Adopting cyclone
resistant technologies
such as homestead
raising, design and use
of materials.
43
5.2 Village Practicing Climate Change Adaptation Activities
The study indicates practice of adaptation activities in some form or another in all the study
villages, although their degree and effectiveness may vary.
Using HH level preparedness as proxy indicator, the study found that as high as 80% vulnerable HH in
Orissa and 63% in southwest coast do not think they are prepared to face cyclone or flood in the
future. There is a clear difference in the level of household level preparedness between male-headed
and female-headed households. Almost 100% female-headed households in India and 73% in
Bangladesh believe that their HH are not prepared to face disasters. Whereas 80% male-headed
households in India and 59% in Bangladesh feel that they are not prepared to face a disaster.
Households in both coasts undertake various preparedness activities to face disasters. These activities
include: repair house (70%), keep money in hand (75%) and repair radio (43%). However these
activities are pursued in the context of existing and known disaster risks. The study finds that people
do not have adequate information to be confident to pursue a solution might work for climate change
adaptation and more disasters in future. Technological access such as crop varieties has been a
challenge for farmers in both the locations to adapt with increasing salinity. Finally, people cannot
implement available knowledge due to lack of financial resources. The Poor people take loan from
various sources for financing their preparedness activities followed by selling out HH assets.
5.3 Capacity of the Vulnerable People to Undertake Mitigation and
Adaptation activities
By definition, capacity is a combination of all the strengths and resources available within a
community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk. Study finds array capacity exists in
all study villages to undertake mitigation and adaptation activities although they are dependent on
degree of the impacts of climate change. At the village level, such capacity can be categorized into
six—Cognitive, physical, human capital, institutional, technological and access to natural resources.
Although they exist at community level, not all capacities are being used in same degree but arguably
offer opportunity to maximize their utilization for adaptation. For example, women in most
communities lead household or community to recovery from disaster loss but their capacity is least
utilised at institutional and policy levels. The capacities identified by the study thus categorised into
four considering their level of functions:
A. Active capacity. The capacities that are within the control of individual, household and
community and are fully utilized for DRR and CCA purpose. Often external DRR actors address
only this part of the capacity.
B. Weak and inadequate capacity. These exist as sub-set of the above, but inadequate, having all
potential to strengthen them. This may include capacities that might have proved effective in a
context but unavailable or inadequate in another.
C. Non-accessible capacity. Capacities those are necessary to manage a risk, but their accessibility is
conditioned by a range of factors, often beyond the control of vulnerable people.
D. Dormant. These capacities are plenty exist at various levels – but not utilised for disaster risk
reduction and adaptation purpose.
44
Low
Active: skills, human capital, natural
resources, government support
Weak/inadequate: social capital e.g. neighbourhood,
local government (lack of CCA planning skills), physical (cyclone shelter,
embankment)
Non-accessible: Gov. budget (not planned for DRR and CCA), social services (not
transformed for CCA), technology (e.g. saline resistant paddy) and information (not seen
priority), early warning
High
Dormant: knowledge/local science about CC, array of institutions (not engaged in CCADRR), natural resources (not have access)
17
Fig 5.1: Capacity at the village level to undertake mitigation and adaptation activities
Maximisation of these capacities is required to support people adapting with climate change impact at
scale. For example, people cannot adapt with salinity intrusion in agriculture in some study villages that
requires all the dormant and inactive capacity to be made active. Therefore, for end line assessment,
capacity should be used together with challenges people face to adapt with climate change. For disaster
context, such challenges include: lack of knowledge (73%), lack of money (80%), not having sufficient
time to invest on preparedness (35%), lack of support from government and institutions (30%) and
lack of human capital at household (19%).
Neighbours remain the major source of knowledge for people in both the study locations (Orissa 44%;
and Southwest coast 58%) to learn about disaster preparedness and early warning together with: Red
Cross (25%), IEC materials like posters (9.6%). Only 8.4% people in both the locations (Orissa 1%;
Southwest coast 12.9%) and mentioned of having training as source of knowledge on disaster
preparedness.
17
This figure was developed by Khurshid Alam for Oxfam GB—and modified for this report.
45
Fig 5.2 Challenges people experience to undertake preparedness at HH level
Orissa Coast
0
20
40
60
80
Bangladesh Coast
Do not know what preparation to take
Do not have time for preparedness
Do not have money
No support from govt. and others
No human capital at home
5.4 People’s Engagement in Alternative Livelihood
Over 35% most vulnerable HHs reported to have thought about changing their livelihood because of
climate change with regional variation - Bangladesh coast 24% and Orissa 57%. Only a negligible
percentage in both coasts (only 12 HHs) already changed their livelihood.
46
Section 6: Institutions
The study found an array of institutions in the study villages ranging from community based
organisations, local government and other traditional institutions such as school and religious places.
Both the study locations have vibrant presence of local government while number and diversity of
NGO presence vary. Bangladesh has more NGOs working at the local level and most of them have
some kind of DRR activities. Ongoing DRR activities are also high in number and depth in Bangladesh
as these locations are going through post cyclone reconstruction. Comprehansive Disaster Managment
Programme also has wide-variety of DRR activities.
In both study locations, these institutions play an important role during and immediately after a
disaster such as dissemination of early warning, evacuation of people, etc., in absence of critical service
from public institutions. People participating in the institutional analysis also identified their
neighbours as important part of their social capital. Institutional support may take a few days (3-7 days)
to arrive after a big disaster, but they do not come at all in small and high frequency disasters. In such
cases, cooperation among vulnerable people is a vital safe guard.
6.1. Villages with Disaster Preparedness Plan
There is no disaster preparedness plan existing in any study villages in both the coasts. There
are a number of reasons for that. First, the village or union has been the primary unit for DRR
planning in Bangladesh while the OSDMA in Orissa has a plan to prepare village disaster preparedness
(DP) plan. The current focus of the Government of Bangladesh is to strengthen DP plans at the
Union level. The government led Comprehensive Disaster Management Program (CDMP) has already
put together a community risk assessment (CRA) plan in all their surveyed districts but they only
prioritize a number of unions with high exposure to cyclone. The OSDMA has already put together a
district level plan in Kendrapara. The Red Cross Society in India has established community
contingency plans in the villages where there a cyclone shelter exists and is managed by Red Cross.
Only 5% people mentioned about the existence of some kind of DP plan in their villages. This
information should be rechecked in the villages in Orissa coast as ADPC (2002) indicates
establishment Community Contingency Plans (CCP) in most villages and GPs of Kendrapara and
Jagatsinghpur. Similarly, villages in Lalua and Latachapali might have some kind of DP plans that
should be further checked by the project.
6.2. Status of most vulnerable people in the community resilience plan
Since there is no disaster preparedness plan in most villages, people are not aware about them. The
study examined whether people are aware about the plan - the results were statistically insignificant.
47
6.3. Extent and quality of participation of vulnerable people in DP plan
Community awareness of and participation in the village DP, is not relevant since no such plan exists..
However, extent and quality of community’s participation in the Community Risk Assessment (CRA)
process in Bangladesh provides an insight into the likelihood of their participation in any future
planning process. The CRA preparation in study union of Bangladesh indeed involved selected
members from the villages, while community contingency plans in Kendrapara did not involve people
in the preparation of the plan.
The CRA processes are managed by local government in partnership with local NGOs. The
formulation process has gone through a series of community consultations although the approach was
selective and targeted to reduce cost of the formulation process. The DRR plans in all unions
formulated before Cyclone Sidr have not been updated.
6.4. Extent of inclusion of the most vulnerable households’ concern in the
village DP plan
Because of non-existent of village DP plans the assessment was not possible to conduct. Therefore,
study suggests non-inclusion in 100% cases to be considered for monitoring and impact
assessment purpose.
6.6. Functioning DMCs at Union and GP level
Again, the team was not able to assess extent to which DMCs were functioning in the selected unions
as new local government leadership were just elected. They would form new DMCs in coming month.
However, information gathered from GoB and local NGOs indicated that almost all Union DMCs
have gone through certain kind of basic disaster management training (see table below). This also clear
from past studies and key informants that DMCs in both the countries are only active when there is a
disasters. They lack motivation, mandate, knowledge, skills and resources to undertake regular DRR
and CCA activities. However, there are many examples where DMCs played very important role in
investing on vulnerability reduction (mostly in infrastructure development and maintenance) work
through their regular resources.
Table 6.1 Past capacity building initiatives for DMC
District
Upazila
Khulna
Koira
Satkhira
Shamnagar
Patuakhali
Kolapara
Barguna
Barguna Sadar
Union
Uttar Bedkashi
Moharazpur
Koira Sadar
Gabura
Atulia
Burigoalini
Lalua,
Latachapli
Mohipur
M. Baliatali
Badarkhali
Naltola
Village
Gazipara
East Mothbari
Ghatakhali
Ckakbara
Sohalia
Modia
Charipara
Kolaipara
Shudhirpur
Khuntakata
Uttar
Tentulbaria
Amtola
Baseline Status
Rupantar did basic training
for all UDMCs and Caritas
did for Koira Sadar.
CDMP and Caritas separately
trained all UDMCs
All UDMC training covered
by Rupantar, Latachapali by
CDMP and SCF
Rupantar covered all UDMCs
training and CDMP
48
6.7. Awareness of DMC members about their Roles and Responsibilities
Bangladesh has recently gone through local government election and a new set of officials are now
took the office. New DMCs are formed in number of places. These new officials are not trained on
DRR and CCA although some of them have high quality knowledge about disaster management issues.
Similarly, OSDMA, Red Cross and NGOs have helped villages and GP to form disaster management
committees, and some of them are not active due to lack of follow-up.
6.8. Inclusion of DRR and CCA in the organizational plan and policies of
selected institutions
The climate change action plan in both Bangladesh and Orissa state are yet to be factored into the
decentralized planning process. The study notes significant growing interest among the officials
working at Upzila in Bangladesh and Block level in Orissa. These officials have interest to
include climate change into their programme but lack of funds and planning skills do not
support them to do so. Study also like to emphasis on a systematic dissemination of key
climate change documents by the governments. Often officials do have copies (often not aware
about) key climate change strategies such as BCCSAP and NAPA in Bangladesh although many of
them heard about these documents through media.
However, Bangladesh part of the study indicates some specific climate change activities by the GOB
from the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund. They were mostly related to housing,
infrastructure development, while international NGOs such as ActionAid working with communities
in Patuakhali have developed specific climate change action plans at the union level. The GOB has
already formulated a community risk assessment (CRA) in almost all unions of seven coastal districts.
Out of twelve project villages in Bangladesh seven already have formulated CRA while none of the
unions in Khulna has any CRA. By design the CRAs are DRR plans with no specific focus on climate
change.
The number of CRAs the study analyzed has the following key activities: physical infrastructure such
as construction and repair of embankments, construction of small water management structures,
afforestation, raise of the plinth of the houses, construction of cyclone resistant houses, establishment
of information centre, modernization of shrimp farming, supply of drinking water, etc. Among these
priorities only increase of houses plinth has been implemented. Other activities received commitment
from the government. The Disaster Management Committees and the officials of other line ministries
have gone through different training and orientation on climate change, although they do not have
knowledge and skills to incorporate climate change into their planning.18 As part of ActionAid’s
climate change programme, two unions in Patuakhali districts already developed their CCA
plan through active participation from the vulnerable household.
Climate change has already been incorporated into the strategic plans of all partner organizations of
Concern’s Paribartan project. For example the long run strategic plan of Shushilan has adopted two
strategic directions (out of eight) related to climate change and disaster risk. Similarly climate change is
integrated into the thematic priorities of environment, food and disaster management in the strategic
objective of JJS in Bangladesh. RCDC with mandate on natural resource management has adopted
18
There are several initiatives to mainstream climate change into the national planning process.
49
climate change among the main thematic area in their organizational perspective plan for 2011-2015.
Shushilan has specific disaster management manual.
50
Section 7 Conclusions and Call for Actions
1. Poverty. People already experience the impact of climate change. Climate change
very likely to increase poverty.
2. Urgency in response.
3. Asset. More asset people have less vulnerable they are. Twin impact of climate
change and market driven polices deprive poor people to enjoy access control and use
of natural resources. Adaptation programming and polices needs to adopt a broad
view and should be an isolated issues.
4. Inequality. People living in inequality experience greater hurdle from climate change.
People already have less access to planning so they are least likely to be able to
influence climate policy. Climate change resources such as fund, technology and
information should be distributed such a way so that inequality is not a barrier.
Climate change impact women heavily.
Call for Actions
51
Annex A: Assessment of Concern and partners
The project is implemented by Concern India and Bangladesh programme. Two partner NGOs in
Bangladesh-Shushilan and Jagrata Juba Shangha (JJS) and one in Orissa - Regional Centre for
Development Cooperation (RCDC) have been implementing the project. This section covers current
situation of these organizations against the selected indicators.
7.1. Level of participation of Concern and Partners in the DRR and CCA
Network
The partner organizations are well known for their Poverty, Environment and DRR in their respective
state and region. They are also active part of various disaster management committees at different
levels. Both JJS and Shushilan are active members of various national and international forums and
networks related to poverty, education, environment and coastal issues. JJS provides secretarial support
to People’s Network on Climate Change Actions while Shushilan is an active member of NGO
Coordination Council for Climate Change. RCDC in Orissa also is a part of state, national and
international forum and network such as Focus Orissa Forum for Climate Change and Solutions
Exchange for Climate Change. RCDC has contributed drafting the Orissa State Action Plan on
Climate Change.
7.2. Existence of system for collecting and disseminating good practices
on DRR and CCA
Among the partner organizations RCDC is most active in collecting and disseminating good practices
on climate change. They publish English and Oriya newsletters in bimonthly and quarterly basis.
Shushilan on the other hand is engaged with World Bank and LGRD in a horizontal learning process
although climate change is not specific focus of the group. JJS runs an independent website through
which they published a number of good practices (non specific to climate change) in the past.
7.3. Existence of Strategy and Plan on DRR and CCA related Advocacy
Although Concern is well known for its vulnerability reduction to disaster and poverty related work in
Bangladesh and Orissa, the institutional focus on climate change is still emerging. The recent country
strategy plan (CSP) in Bangladesh shifted its approach towards more specific climate change work as
well as integration of climate change into regular development project and activities. Although
vulnerability reduction to disaster and degradation of common property have been the key focus
Concern India’s CSP ending in 2011, climate change is emerging as institutional learning that may be
incorporated into the next CSP.
52
The programme leadership in Bangladesh is well connected with key actors and policy makers in
climate change that has helped Concern to increase its advocacy profile since 2010. It has participated
in COP-16 in Cancun and followed that up by organizing a national level round table in January 2011
to support the government delegation to provide feedback to the nation. This early climate change
work has inspired Concern Bangladesh to focus on more specific advocacy strategy that will emerge in
the coming months. In Orissa, Concern has strong partnership with high profile advocacy
organisations. They have in the past, organised international conference on Global Commons, that
indicates their networking and advocacy profile. They are well networked with government and civil
society institutions. Both Concern in India and Bangladesh do not have climate change programming
process.
53
Annex B: Recommendations
The recommendations presented below have emerged from the study but also has been enriched by
other studies conducted by the authors. They are presented in three categories: Strategic,
Programmatic and Project Management. Concern should carefully examine the relevance of these
recommendations with their existing plans and emergency of various climate change policy and actions
in both countries.
9.1. Strategic Recommendations
1. Adopting an inequality based programming framework. Three important actions should be
undertaken to implement such a framework: i) enhance adaptive capacity of the people living in
inequalities to protect their life and livelihood; ii) build capacity of vulnerable people to understand
implication of climate change in their life and to access resources for adaptation and iii) building
capacity to influence climate change policy and actions supported by improved capacity of the
local government. At the institutional level, Concern should also take up three approaches:
building constituency of the most vulnerable people, building solidarity support with like-minded
civil society organizations and influencing public policy through evidence based research and
monitoring the situation. Project staff should be supported with the necessary skills to understand
and implement the framework.
2. Investment on knowledge sharing mechanism. In line with existing plan on knowledge and
lessons, Concern should focus on documenting experience from areas with higher climate change
impact and adaptation capacity to areas with lower impact and capacity.
3. Capacity maximisation as a framework should be adopted to support people’s resilience to
climate change. As a start, knowledge building and research capacity of people on climate change
should be seen as important priority to address uncertainty associated with climate change (please
read ActionAid’s lesson paper titled ‘Unsustainable Success in Uncertainty’ presented in COP-15).
9.2. Programmatic Recommendations
Programmatically, Concern can invest in four specific areas: capacity building of the most vulnerable
people, undertake specific pilot projects, investment on disaster preparedness and building capacity of
the local government on climate change planning.
4. Capacity Building of the most vulnerable people. The key approaches to be adopted include:
enhancement of research capacity of the communities on climate change, support them to
understand how to access climate change resources and advocacy skills to influence climate change
and policy actions.
54
5. In line with current plan on piloting alternative solution, the following priorities can be
considered:
A. Piloting technologies and human capacity building on homestead gardening in the areas
already affected by salinity. The activities may include: preservation of sweet water (experience
can be brought in from Japan and Brazil), improved seed varieties and gardening techniques.
This investment would ensure supply of food and nutrition.
B. Investment on community based DRR in the areas where disaster frequency has been
relatively low (e.g. Kendrapara). It should focus on retaining community knowledge about
disaster preparedness by preserving social evidence of disaster in public areas and schools.
C. Conservation mangrove and other natural resources.
D. Pro poor institutional model on sweet water conservation and small scale water management
scheme.
E. Investing on critical facilities or services that help reducing burden and work load on women
F. Preservation of bio-physical environment (from salinity intrusion) through research with
support from technical organisations.
6. Capacity of the local institutions focused on CC planning.
7. Further Research: There is a substantial gap in technical knowledge existing in the study areas in
which Concern can make some investment. These include: sustainable water supply, small scale
sweet water management, capacity assessment of the local government for climate change
planning, long term implication of climate change and livelihood strategies, technology for cyclone
resistant housing, animal sheds, boats and nets, effective preparedness in the context of increasing
cyclonic frequency and political economy of climate change impacts at the local level.
9.3. Project Management
8. The mid-term review of the project should carefully examine size of the project’s activity at
different levels to available resources and time for making a sustainable impact.
9. The project’s log-frame has more indicators that should be required. Some of them are SMART.
Concern should agree with the project’s donor (EC) to revise the indicators for end line, impact
assessment and regular monitoring purpose.
10. Investment on staff capacity, as many of the staff interviewed by the study team did not have prior
experience and training in climate change programming.
55
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