Forecast International: Light Military Helicopter Sales to Decline
Based on data derived from its Platinum 2.0 Forecast System, Forecast International
says that the light military rotorcraft market has entered a period that will see annual
production generally head downward during the next 15 years. The firm projects that
manufacturers will build 165 light military rotorcraft in 2014 and 166 in 2015, with
production then climbing to 208 rotorcraft in 2016. However, this production spike is
expected to be a temporary, one-year phenomenon, with annual production resuming
a downward track in 2017, and declining to only 55 rotorcraft in 2028.
Forecast International's Platinum 2.0 system, an industry-leading system that projects
aerospace and defense production out 15 years, predicts that 1,495 light military
aircraft will be produced from 2014 through 2028. The Connecticut-based market
research firm estimates the value of this production at $23.6 billion in 2014 U.S.
dollars. The company defines a military rotorcraft as light when it has a maximum
gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 pounds).
The light military rotorcraft market is being impacted by a number of factors, most
notably the fact that many nations around the world are, and have been, reducing
defense spending. Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond
Jaworowski said, "Ongoing rotorcraft procurement programs are being stretched out,
reduced in size and scope, or even canceled altogether. At the same time, very few
new-start programs have emerged that would help keep production rates up."
This trend is especially pronounced in the U.S. and much of Europe. And, with North
America and Europe being the two largest geographic markets for light military
rotorcraft, the effect on the overall market is considerable. However, Forecast
International notes that manufacturers will still be able to find select sales
opportunities, particularly in the Middle East, Latin America, and much of Asia.
The Platinum 2.0 data indicate that Airbus Helicopters will be the leading light
military rotorcraft manufacturer during the 2014-2028 forecast period. Airbus
Helicopters is projected to produce 431 such helicopters, worth $7.4 billion, during
the period. Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) is projected to build 278 units during
the timeframe, while Bell Helicopter is expected to produce 269 units. (Vertical
Magazine)