RISK TRAINING FOR APPROVED PREMISES STAFF
MODULE 1
Principles of risk assessment
and risk management
LEARNING OUTCOMES
•Understand the current definitions of risk and the procedures within risk
management and the importance of a victim perspective in risk assessment and
management.
•Understand the dynamic nature of risk and the need to continuously review
assessments according to criminogenic need.
•Understand and contribute to methods for identifying, predicting and managing
risk within agency policies and procedures.
•Understand the link between good practice, risk assessment and public protection.
•Apply principles of promoting equality, valuing diversity and anti-discriminatory
practice in assessing risk.
•The assessment and management of risk is central to the work of NOMS
The Probation and Prison services have a duty and responsibility to assess and
manage the risk posed by offenders in the community and in prison work
Current definitions of Risk
Risk has traditionally been a neutral term meaning the chance of gain or the
chance of loss. Increasingly however, risk has become associated with the notions of
hazard, danger or harm.
•The emphasis has shifted from the term ‘dangerousness’ to ‘risk, on the grounds that the
latter incorporates a wider consideration of contextual and circumstantial factors as well
as dispositional personality traits.
•A risk assessment can therefore be characterised as a:
…probability calculation that a harmful behaviour or event will occur and
involves an assessment about the frequency of the behaviour/event, its likely impact and
who it will affect.
(Hazel Kemshall 1996)
Current definitions of Risk
The definition captures the two key ingredients of any risk assessment:
•A calculation of frequency or likelihood, usually expressed as a probability calculation.
•A calculation of likely impact and where possible, identification of likely or potential
victims.
In particular, we are interested in:
–The behaviour of concern
–The potential damage or harm likely from that behaviour; and,
–The probability that it will occur and under what circumstances.
Current definitions of Risk
Harm is understood as psychological as well as physical, sexual and violent harm.
•Risk
assessment is a constant process involving risk management, review of its
effectiveness and re-assessment.
•Re-appraisal in cases of escalation or reduction of risks, bearing in mind that risks
change over time and in differing contexts.
•Risk is uncertain – only relative probabilities can be estimated.
Current definitions of Risk
Remember:
We Can Never Eliminate Risk
But Seek To Manage Risk
Through Harm Reduction
What Do We Mean By Risk?
Risk of Harm
•An estimate or assessment of the likely level of harm or dangerousness posed by an
individual offender
Risk of Reconviction
•The probability or likelihood of an offender committing a further offence
Risk of Serious Harm: Definition
Harm which is life threatening and / or traumatic and from which recovery,
whether physical or psychological, can be expected to be difficult or impossible.
Harm Categories
•Low
•Medium
To
•High
•Very High
Risk of Harm Levels
•Low
•no significant, current indicators of risk of harm
•Medium
•identifiable indicators of risk of harm
•Offender has the potential to cause harm but is unlikely to do so unless there is a change
in circumstances.
Risk of Harm Levels
•High
•identifiable indicators of risk of serious harm
•potential event could happen at any time and impact would be serious
•Very High
•imminent risk of serious harm
•potential event is more likely than not to happen imminently
•the impact would be serious
Remember
We have a greater duty of care to
•Children
•Staff
•Prisoners/Group members
Assessors will be concerned with any risk of harm and the category is based on
imminence.
Risk Management
•Offender management plans, strategies or interventions used by practitioners with the
aim of reducing or controlling the risk level posed by an individual offender
General Principles
•Identify what can be changed - not everything can be!
•Target specific behaviours, situational triggers, conditions, circumstances
•Reduce access to situations and limit the stressors or triggers
•Protect potential victims
•Listen to information from significant parties (including offender’s relatives) and act on
warning signals
•Recognise when effective work is NOT possible and your role becomes one of:
monitoring, surveillance and control
(Hazel Kemshall 1997)
Risk Management Strategies
•Multi-agency adds value
•External Controls e.g.: licence conditions
•Surveillance and monitoring
•Enforcement strategy/Contingency plans
•Offence focussed work
•Programmes
•Constructive Interventions e.g: ETE
•Supportive Measures
•Victims
•Diversity
Legislation
Victims Charter 1990, 1996
Criminal Justice Act 1991
Crime
and Disorder Act 1998
Criminal Justice and Court Services Act 2000
Criminal Justice Act 2003
Sex Offenders Act 2003
Context for Risk Policy and Practice
•Emergence of public protection as a primary objective
•Reduction of re-offending and harm
•National Standards
•Importance of Multi–agency approach
•What works
•Key to Offender Management
•MAPPA
Context for Risk Policy and Practice
•The role of the media
•Tragedies
•Public scrutiny
•Defensibility
•Accountability
•Legislative reform
•Serious Further Offences
Defensible decisions
•It is important to acknowledge that risk assessment is a highly fallible undertaking and it
is unlikely that any method can be found which will provide certainty and 100% levels of
accuracy for worker, agency and public.
•In
situations where accuracy cannot be guaranteed, the key to decisions withstanding
subsequent accountability and public scrutiny is their defensibility. In other words, how
decisions are evaluated with hindsight after negative outcomes have occurred and
whether decisions can be considered to be ‘reasonable’.
Defensible decisions
A defensible decision is made when:
•all reasonable steps have been taken
•reliable assessment methods have been used
•information is thoroughly evaluated
•decisions are recorded
•staff work within agency policies and procedures
•staff communicate with others and seeks information
they do not have
Defensible decisions
•‘The very worst practice doesn’t involve making wrong decisions, but no decisions
at all’
(Herschel Prins)
How Do We Assess Risk?
•e-OASys
•OGRS
•SARA
•Risk Matrix 2000
•Local AP specific assessment
Sources of Information 1
•Pre-cons
•CPS Papers
•Case Records
•Previous Reports
•Previous Risk
•Assessments
•Hostels' referral form
•Prisons
•MAPPA notes
•Informal information
Sources of Information 2
•Medical Services
•Psychiatric Services
•Police Intelligence
•Family/Partner
•Drug/Alcohol Agency
•Social Services
•Your Interview
Risk Factors 1
•Drug and alcohol use
•Violent and aggressive behaviour
•High levels of anger/hostility
•Use of weapons
•Mental Health
•Active symptoms - particularly psychotic symptoms such as delusions and
hallucinations
•Clinical diagnosis
•Medication non compliance
•Identified victims or target group
•Thinking skills
Risk Factors 2
•Identified victims or target group
•Thinking skills
•Relationships
•Social isolation
•Financial difficulties
•Lack of accommodation
•Lack of employment
•Sexual offending
•Lifestyle and associates
•Failure to attend appointments
General Principles of
Risk Assessment
•Risk cannot be eliminated
•Risk is dynamic: it is constantly changing, sometimes even over short spaces of time
•Risk may be general or specific
•Rigorous assessment and good practice can reduce risk
•Good risk assessment cannot be done in isolation
We need to know..........
•How serious is the risk?
•How likely is the risk?
Actuarial and Clinical Assessments
There are two basic approaches to risk assessment for offenders
•Actuarial, based on statistical calculations of probability (well used in the insurance
industry).
•Clinical, a diagnostic assessment derived in part from the medical and mental health
fields.
It is now generally accepted that the accuracy and consistency of risk assessments
is enhanced by assessment tools which combine actuarial calculations of probability with
detailed clinical interviewing, to establish the conditions and circumstances under which
risky behaviour might occur.
Actuarial and Clinical Assessments
Aims of e-OASys
To deliver a common, efficient and effective offender risk and needs assessment system
that enables the prison and probation service to achieve Home Office targets for
reduction in re-offending/reconviction rates and for increased protection of the public.
e-OASys: Evidence of Risk
•Section 1: Case ID & Offending Information
•Section 2: Offence Analysis
•Sections 3-12: Offending Related Factors
•Section 13: Health & and other considerations
•Risk of Harm Screening
•Self assessment
MAPPA
Key Processes
•Identification of offenders
•Information Sharing
•Risk Assessment
•Risk Management
Components of a good risk of harm assessment
•Full information concerning the offender
•Uses actuarial and clinical data
•Analysis of risk factors (to whom/under what circumstances)
•Risk Triggers (what will increase/reduce risk)
•A plan to manage the identified risk
•Communication with all interested parties
•Clarification of roles and responsibilities
Be Alert for Changes
Situational Factors
•Address
•Relationships
•Job
•Offender Manager
Be Alert for Changes
Presentation
•Under the influence
•Hygiene
•Mood
•Non compliance
•Over compliance
Always Remember.....
•Be vigilant!
•Explore/Investigate!
•Ask the unthinkable
•Communicate (Who needs to know ?)
•Be aware of Diversity and Equal Opportunities
•Liaise
•Think victim
References
•Kemshall,
H (1996) Reviewing Risk, A Review of Research in the Assessment and
Management of Risk and Dangerous. Home Office
•Kemshall, H (1997) Risk And Parole: Issues in Risk Assessment And Release in
Kemshall, H & Pritchard, J (eds) Good Practice in Risk Assessment and Risk
Management London: Jessica Kingsley
•Kemshall, H (2001) Risk Assessment and Management of Known Sexual and Violent
Offenders. Police research Series Paper 140. Home Office
•Powis, B (2002) Offenders’ Risk Of Serious Harm: A Literature Review. Home Office
•Prins, H (1999) Will They Do It Again London: Routledge
•Brown, Angela; Forbes, David (2005) Core Curriculum Learning Programme for PSO
Induction and Development 2005-2006 Module 5; London Probation