ACRIS Livestock Density Update 2009-2011 Updated information to that provided in Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse Gary Bastin, ACRIS Management Unit CSIRO, PO Box 2111, Alice Springs NT 0871 (email: Gary.Bastin@csiro.au) This project is supported by Ninti One Limited, through funding from the Australian Government. 1 The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. 2 ACRIS Livestock Density Update 2009-2011 Gary Bastin, ACRIS Management Unit CSIRO, PO Box 2111, Alice Springs NT 0871 (email: Gary.Bastin@csiro.au) Grazing pressure exerted by domestic livestock (sheep and cattle), kangaroos and feral herbivores (goats, donkeys, camels, rabbits etc) is a major driver of change in the rangelands. The cumulative effect of all grazers in an area is ‘total grazing pressure’ (TGP). The Australian Collaborative Rangelands Information System (ACRIS) has the capacity to semi-regularly report changes in livestock, kangaroo and goat densities. Change in livestock densities between 1992 and 2002 were reported in Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse (Bastin & the ACRIS Management Committee 2008). A more recent account of change (2003-2008) is available at www.environment.gov.au/land/publications/acris/acris-livestock-update.html. This report updates change in livestock density between 2009 and 2011. Key points ACRIS has an embedded process for reporting change in livestock density based on periodic census and surveys of agricultural businesses by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Annual stock returns from South Australian pastoralists are now the data source for that state. The combined data are processed for ACRIS by Queensland Government staff. ACRIS is not able to quantify the reliability of all regional data derived from ABS sources; past jurisdictional data show there is agreement for some bioregions and differences elsewhere. Previous reporting covered the periods 1992 to 2002 and 2003 to 2008. The most recent data show that: Stock density (almost exclusively cattle) has continued to increase in many northern pastoral bioregions. In particular, 2011 densities were more than double the average between 1984 and 1991 (defined as a base period) in the Daly Basin, Gulf Coastal, Pine Creek, Gulf Fall & Uplands and Davenport Murchison Ranges bioregions (all in the NT). In contrast, regional livestock densities continued to decline between 2009 and 2011 in parts of the south eastern, southern and south western rangelands. 2011 cattle numbers were also reduced in the MacDonnell Ranges and Burt Plain bioregions of the southern NT. In some bioregions, livestock densities appeared to broadly track seasonal quality (indicated by decile rainfall) through the initially drier and then wetter years of the last decade. This is the expected result and can indicate sustainable grazing management. In other bioregions, particularly parts of northern and central Australia, reductions in density considerably 3 lagged declining seasonal quality. Timely monitoring of landscape function and critical stock forage is critical where this is the case. Kangaroos contribute significantly to total grazing pressure and recent changes in their regional populations are reported in the associated product “ACRIS Kangaroo Density Update 2009-2012”. Information about feral goats as a component of TGP is available at www.environment.gov.au/land/publications/acris/acris-feral-goats.html and the Australian Feral Camel Management Project is assisting efforts to reduce the impact of camels, particularly on nonpastoral lands. Livestock densities in rangelands Change in livestock density in response to seasonal conditions (seasonal quality) is a useful indicator of sustainable management. There are two components to regional livestock density: (i) the inherent productivity or capacity of the land to carry stock (i.e. long-term carrying capacity) and (ii) the number of stock on the land relative to recent seasonal quality. For example, the Mitchell grasslands in northern Australia have a high capacity to carry stock, but stock numbers are usually reduced during periods of below-average rainfall. The eastern margin of the rangelands has inherently greater pastoral productivity in terms of livestock density (Figure 1, see Box 1 for data sources). Central and western pastoral bioregions have the lowest stocking densities. Change over time in livestock density at bioregional scale is relatively stable compared with the large differences in densities occurring between IBRA regions. Annual livestock density for each bioregion since 1992 is tabulated in Appendix 1. Figure 1. Stocking density for 2011 (Dry Sheep Equivalents / km2). Data sources: ABS, SA Government, Qld DSITIA. Map: ACRIS Management Unit. not stocked 4 Box 1. Data on livestock numbers The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) conducts a complete Agricultural Census every five years (most recently, 2011) and, in intervening years, surveys businesses to estimate levels of agricultural production. The ABS compiles and reports census data by Statistical Local Area (SLA) and survey data by larger Statistical Divisions (SD, i.e. groups of SLAs). Additionally, the SA and WA Governments require pastoral lessees to submit annual returns of livestock numbers. The ABS livestock data are used by the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts (DSITIA) for AussieGRASS simulations. John Carter (DSITIA) concorded the most recent ABS census data (2011) to bioregions (IBRA version 7) for New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The low level of sampling in much of the rangelands means that it is not appropriate to concord the survey data collected between census years. Rather, these data were used to interpolate probable IBRA-level livestock numbers between the 2006 and 2011 censuses based on yearly change in the SD data. Annual property-level livestock returns for South Australia were aggregated to bioregions. During this process, and for all pastoral bioregions, numbers of livestock of various types and classes are converted to Dry Sheep Equivalents (DSE: 50 kg wether at maintenance). These data were then made available to ACRIS. ACRIS does not report livestock densities for bioregions where less than 25% of the area was grazed or where there were fewer than five pastoral leases. The mapped area of grazed native and modified pasture in each rangeland bioregion was used to calculate IBRA-level livestock density (data source: 2005-06 land use mapping, BRS 2006). The accuracy of interpolated livestock numbers in the years between ABS Agricultural Censuses is an important issue when interpreting and reporting changes in density at the bioregional level. In the years between the five-yearly censuses, surveys only sample a small proportion of pastoralists and the ABS data are reported at SD level (i.e. grouped SLAs). Data accuracy is obviously higher in the years of census (1997, 2001, 2006, 2011). Also, where properties are very large, they may extend across more than one bioregion causing a relatively poor correspondence between SLAs and bioregions. This can further reduce the accuracy of the livestock densities reported here. For Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse reporting, comparisons of the ABS-sourced data with livestock returns to the WA and SA pastoral land boards showed variable levels of agreement. There was broad agreement for the main pastoral bioregions in SA and parts of WA. However, there were some discrepancies in other parts of WA, notably for the Kimberley and Yalgoo bioregions. Further examples of the level of agreement for WA pastoral bioregions were provided in the appendix to the previous livestock density update (see www.environment.gov.au/land/publications/acris/acris-livestock-update.html). In summary, a caveat applies – use caution when interpreting the changes in livestock densities reported in this update. 5 Change in livestock density To enhance the extent of IBRA-level change, ACRIS reports the percentage change in yearly densities between 2009 and 2011 relative to the average of a base period (1984-1991) (Figure 2). Maps of relative changes for preceding years (1992-2002 and 2003-2008) are available in earlier reports (Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse and www.environment.gov.au/land/publications/acris/acris-livestock-update.html). Yearly index values of change and the base-period livestock density for each grazed bioregion are reported in Appendix 2. 2009 2011 2010 not stocked Figure 2. Percentage changes in livestock densities for rangeland bioregions between 2009 and 2011 compared with the mean stocking density for the 1984-91 period. Data sources: ABS, SA Government, Qld DSITIA. Map: ACRIS Management Unit. 6 Much of northern Australia had a considerably higher livestock density between 2003 and 2008 compared with the average between 1984 and 1991 (Figure 2). This was a continuation of the trend between 2003 and 2008 reported in the previous update. In particular: 2011 densities were more than double the base period in the Daly Basin, Gulf Coastal, Pine Creek, Gulf Fall & Uplands and Davenport Murchison Ranges IBRAs in the NT. The Sturt Plateau, Northern Kimberley, Mount Isa Inlier, Mitchell Grass Downs and Gulf Plains IBRAs had densities in 2011 of 140 to 200 percent above the base period. Conversely, much of the south eastern, southern and south western rangelands had a continuing lower stocking density between 2009 and 2011 compared with the average for 1984-91, a trend identified between 2003 and 2008 in the preceding livestock density update. 2011 livestock densities in the Yalgoo, Murchison, Nullarbor, Coolgardie and Carnarvon bioregions (all WA) were less than a third of the 1984-91 base period. In south eastern Australia, the Riverina, Darling Riverine Plains and Murray Darling Depression had a 2011 density of one-half to three-quarters of the 1984-91 average. 2011 cattle numbers were also reduced in the MacDonnell Ranges and Burt Plain IBRAs of the southern NT being two-thirds to three-quarters that of the base period. Time-traces of relative stocking density in Figure 3 illustrate bioregions where cattle numbers have increased almost continuously since 1992 (Sturt Plateau), livestock numbers (as DSEs) have consistently decreased (Murchison) or fluctuated over the 20-year period (Pilbara). 200 Sturt Plateau (NT) 180 Murchison (WA) Pilbara (WA) % Change in Livestock Density (1984-91 base) 160 140 120 base 100 80 60 40 20 2003-2008 2009-2011 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 3. Percentage change in livestock densities between 1992 and 2011 for the grazed area of the Sturt Plateau, Murchison and Pilbara bioregions. Change is calculated relative to the average stocking density of each region for the 1984-91 period (dashed line). Data sources: ABS, SA Government, Qld DSITIA. Graph: ACRIS Management Unit. 7 Livestock density adjusted for seasonal quality An important indicator of sustainable grazing management is how quickly pastoralists adjust livestock numbers to match seasonal conditions, particularly when seasonal quality is declining. Two continuing examples1 of regional changes in livestock density and seasonal quality (based on decile rainfall) are shown in Figure 4. Pastoralists, collectively, in the Stony Plains bioregion appeared to match stock numbers to seasonal quality through the 20-year period, noting that decile rainfall is for April of the year shown through to March of the following year.. Over the last ten years, stocking density declined appreciably with predominantly drier years until 2007. This decline continued until 2008 and then stabilised until 2010 before increasing substantially in 2011. This lagged effect of stocking density to decile rainfall appears to represent the typical initial slow recovery in flock and herd numbers through breeding as pastoralists re-establish their businesses following drier years. In contrast, cattle numbers (on a DSE basis) in the neighbouring Finke bioregion remained well above the 1984-91 average between 2002 and 2008 during a period that included three years of below-average seasonal quality. Regional stocking density was then substantially reduced in 2009 as seasonal quality appeared to be improving. Further good seasons saw continuing increase in cattle numbers in 2010 and 2011. The pattern in relative stocking density between 2002 and 2009 suggests that some pastoralists in the Finke bioregion maintained cattle numbers as seasonal quality deteriorated until they were forced to destock (or cattle died). Where this was the case, it raises concerns about sustainable grazing management and emphasises the need for timely monitoring of both landscape function and critical stock forage to ensure that the natural resource base underpinning livestock production (i.e. soil and vegetation) is not being degraded. References Bastin, G. & the ACRIS Management Committee (2008). Rangelands 2008 – Taking the Pulse. Published on behalf of the ACRIS Management Committee by the National Land and Water Resources Audit, Canberra. Available at: www.environment.gov.au/land/rangelands/acris/index.html. BRS (Bureau of Rural Sciences) (2006). Guidelines for Land Use Mapping in Australia: Principles, Procedure and Definitions. A technical handbook supporting the Australian Collaborative Land Use Mapping programme, Edition 3. BRS, Canberra, Australia. 1 The relationship between relative stocking density and seasonal quality for the Stony Plains and Finke bioregions between 1992 and 2008 were shown in the previous livestock density update (www.environment.gov.au/land/publications/acris/acris-livestock-update.html). 8 10 170 decile rainfall 9 relative change in stock density Stony Plains IBRA 150 130 7 6 110 5 90 4 3 70 % of 1984-91 base stock density Seasonal quality (decile rainfall) 8 2 50 1 0 30 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10 170 decile rainfall 9 relative change in stock density Finke IBRA 150 130 7 6 110 5 90 4 3 70 % of 1984-91 base stock density Seasonal quality (decile rainfall) 8 2 50 1 0 30 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 4. Change in relative stock density related to decile rainfall (as an indicator of seasonal quality) for the neighbouring Stony Plains and Finke bioregions in central Australia for the 1991-2011 period. Change is calculated relative to the average stocking density of each region for the 1984-91 period (dashed line, also indicates median rainfall). Decile rainfall is the spatially averaged annual rainfall (April-March period) for each bioregion ranked against the long-term record (1890-2011). Data: Rainfall, Bureau of Meteorology; livestock density, ABS, SA Government and Qld DSITIA. Graphs: ACRIS Management Unit. 9 Appendix 1: Yearly livestock densities (DSE km-2) for pastoral rangeland bioregions Bioregion Brigalow Belt North Brigalow Belt South Broken Hill Complex Burt Plain Cape York Peninsula Carnarvon Central Kimberley Channel Country Cobar Peneplain Coolgardie Daly Basin Dampierland Darling Riverine Plains Davenport Murchison Ranges Desert Uplands Einasleigh Uplands Finke Flinders Lofty Block Gascoyne 1992 80 1993 73 1994 66 1995 66 1996 70 1997 73 1998 78 1999 78 2000 75 2001 92 2002 90 2003 76 2004 80 2005 89 2006 90 2007 93 2008 105 2009 89 2010 78 2011 94 82 78 77 79 81 84 90 91 100 89 85 73 86 88 85 88 98 86 84 89 14 14 16 18 15 15 16 13 14 14 13 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 13 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 6 10 8 11 7 11 9 11 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 8 9 10 5 10 6 9 7 10 10 20 10 18 10 15 9 19 9 17 9 16 9 18 8 14 8 16 9 14 8 12 7 9 7 11 8 12 8 19 6 18 7 13 8 16 7 19 6 20 14 13 12 11 12 12 13 12 13 14 12 10 8 9 9 8 8 11 11 13 64 60 57 59 54 54 52 46 51 48 45 39 38 38 37 34 33 33 32 35 9 19 20 124 9 19 16 106 9 20 18 105 9 19 17 104 9 23 18 96 8 25 17 99 8 24 19 96 10 21 23 92 11 21 26 93 10 22 24 90 10 23 20 82 9 22 15 73 8 27 15 76 8 27 17 74 7 28 28 77 6 30 26 66 5 32 20 74 6 86 24 75 6 106 29 74 5 112 30 73 11 10 15 10 11 12 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 21 22 48 46 40 40 40 40 44 58 57 56 52 51 54 56 55 62 53 53 48 55 44 43 39 37 38 41 41 57 56 48 53 56 51 52 51 55 46 53 45 50 5 31 5 31 5 30 5 27 5 29 6 27 6 28 6 26 6 23 7 23 7 24 6 20 6 24 7 25 7 24 7 23 7 18 3 23 4 22 4 29 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 10 Bioregion Gawler Gulf Coastal Gulf Fall and Uplands Gulf Plains MacDonnell Ranges Mitchell Grass Downs Mount Isa Inlier Mulga Lands Murchison Murray Darling Depression Northern Kimberley Nullarbor Ord Victoria Plain Pilbara Pine Creek Riverina Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields Stony Plains Sturt Plateau Victoria Bonaparte Yalgoo 1992 6 3 11 1993 6 3 9 1994 6 3 10 1995 6 3 11 1996 6 4 12 1997 6 4 13 1998 6 4 13 1999 6 4 12 2000 6 4 13 2001 6 5 14 2002 6 5 14 2003 5 5 13 2004 5 7 18 2005 5 8 18 2006 5 8 18 2007 4 8 20 2008 3 9 21 2009 4 11 19 2010 4 14 23 2011 5 15 24 27 11 29 10 30 10 30 11 28 12 28 12 29 12 25 11 35 11 33 12 35 13 33 12 38 9 31 9 35 9 32 10 36 10 38 5 35 6 39 7 37 35 34 35 32 31 34 33 37 40 36 31 36 34 37 35 36 40 42 46 18 20 20 19 19 19 21 18 26 25 25 23 32 26 29 27 30 26 25 27 28 4 25 25 4 24 25 4 25 26 4 27 26 4 23 27 4 23 29 4 23 29 4 20 31 4 22 25 4 22 23 4 20 17 3 17 18 2 18 20 2 17 18 2 17 18 2 16 20 2 15 23 2 14 22 1 14 25 1 18 14 14 13 20 14 13 14 15 17 15 13 10 11 12 20 18 14 16 19 20 3 21 3 20 4 21 3 21 4 22 4 22 4 23 3 22 4 23 3 24 3 24 3 22 2 22 2 23 2 26 2 27 2 26 3 16 3 20 3 21 7 24 128 6 7 28 118 6 9 27 116 6 8 30 108 6 8 33 107 6 9 35 107 6 10 34 98 7 10 28 91 6 10 30 94 6 11 32 95 7 12 32 87 7 10 32 74 6 13 30 79 5 12 30 77 5 11 31 82 5 8 33 72 5 9 39 61 4 11 36 51 4 9 43 50 5 8 47 62 6 5 15 6 14 6 16 6 18 5 19 5 20 6 19 7 19 6 19 6 20 7 21 5 20 5 23 5 24 5 25 4 26 3 28 3 21 3 26 5 28 28 29 32 33 32 34 33 35 36 38 38 35 35 36 40 42 42 24 29 31 16 15 15 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 4 4 4 Data source: ABS, SA Government and Qld DSITIA 11 Appendix 2: Mean livestock density for the 1984-91 (base) period (DSE km-2) and relative change in stocking density from 1992 to 2011 Bioregion Brigalow Belt North Brigalow Belt South Broken Hill Complex Burt Plain Cape York Peninsula Carnarvon Central Kimberley Channel Country Cobar Peneplain Coolgardie Daly Basin Dampierland Darling Riverine Plains Davenport Murchison Ranges Desert Uplands Einasleigh Uplands Finke Base (DSE km-2) 71.1 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 112 103 93 93 98 103 110 109 105 130 127 107 113 125 126 131 148 126 110 133 76.4 107 103 100 103 106 110 117 119 131 117 111 96 112 116 112 115 128 113 110 117 15.7 88 90 100 117 95 96 104 82 87 87 81 62 62 60 60 62 57 56 58 80 9.3 10.3 109 92 103 95 105 101 101 90 104 87 111 94 108 85 108 63 109 74 117 72 123 90 115 84 83 89 85 84 87 89 93 73 98 96 56 96 70 91 74 100 9.5 21.9 101 90 102 80 100 71 94 87 97 78 98 72 99 81 88 63 84 72 91 65 79 55 74 41 75 49 81 53 83 87 65 82 71 62 86 73 71 89 62 93 12.2 117 110 98 93 98 100 109 102 109 115 101 81 65 70 71 68 66 87 92 105 60.1 106 99 96 99 90 91 87 76 85 80 75 65 63 64 62 56 55 54 53 58 8.8 16.3 24.2 104 119 82 105 116 67 108 123 73 104 117 71 100 143 75 95 153 70 96 149 79 115 127 93 126 128 108 109 137 99 118 144 83 107 135 62 87 164 64 91 168 69 77 172 115 73 183 108 60 193 81 68 527 99 64 648 120 59 687 125 112.0 110 95 94 93 86 88 86 82 83 81 73 65 68 66 69 59 66 67 66 65 10.7 101 89 138 96 107 114 112 112 112 121 127 119 124 127 130 138 146 156 193 205 41.9 114 110 95 95 94 96 105 138 137 133 124 122 129 134 132 149 127 127 116 131 39.9 110 108 99 93 96 103 102 142 140 121 132 140 127 131 127 138 116 134 113 125 4.9 111 104 102 112 110 116 115 129 127 135 143 132 132 135 137 140 143 69 80 90 12 Bioregion Flinders Lofty Block Gascoyne Gawler Gulf Coastal Gulf Fall & Uplands Gulf Plains MacDonnell Ranges Mitchell Grass Downs Mount Isa Inlier Mulga Lands Murchison Murray Darling Depression Northern Kimberley Nullarbor Ord Victoria Plain Pilbara Pine Creek Riverina Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields Stony Plains Base (DSE km-2) 27.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 111 111 108 98 104 97 101 95 83 83 86 73 86 89 86 83 64 81 79 105 4.3 5.4 5.2 11.7 91 109 66 91 89 116 55 81 100 116 59 89 97 111 57 96 109 113 72 105 119 108 77 112 128 116 75 110 116 118 84 106 106 104 84 110 139 104 91 117 131 113 95 122 117 96 89 115 101 94 141 152 106 97 145 153 120 93 148 157 97 84 158 166 120 65 166 176 123 71 215 159 93 70 264 193 83 100 281 204 27.0 10.1 100 108 106 101 110 102 110 107 104 114 103 123 108 119 93 112 131 113 122 122 130 128 121 120 140 87 116 90 129 92 117 97 134 103 141 49 131 62 143 65 31.5 117 111 107 110 100 100 107 105 117 127 113 97 114 110 117 112 114 128 134 147 17.9 100 110 109 104 109 106 117 102 144 137 140 129 180 145 162 151 166 146 137 151 28.1 101 88 89 92 94 97 102 105 111 91 82 61 65 71 66 63 71 83 79 88 4.3 25.6 95 99 95 93 99 96 98 106 103 89 103 90 104 88 90 79 96 86 91 86 85 80 79 67 43 69 46 67 44 67 38 64 37 58 36 54 32 55 28 70 12.0 114 119 109 169 116 108 121 123 142 129 108 80 90 97 163 154 114 132 161 169 5.9 23.7 55 89 55 85 60 89 56 91 65 91 63 93 66 95 58 95 66 99 51 102 59 101 50 91 34 93 37 96 30 112 33 115 28 111 53 69 55 84 44 89 8.2 21.4 113.9 5.7 86 112 112 103 86 129 104 101 104 125 102 100 94 140 95 102 98 155 94 106 106 165 94 108 120 161 86 114 118 131 80 112 122 139 82 112 132 149 83 117 145 149 77 118 125 149 65 101 156 139 69 84 140 142 67 87 128 145 72 86 92 153 63 83 108 182 54 78 135 168 45 73 112 203 44 79 98 220 54 96 4.6 113 127 122 122 120 118 129 142 129 127 142 119 103 107 103 88 69 73 72 110 13 Bioregion Sturt Plateau Victoria Bonaparte Yalgoo Base (DSE km-2) 14.9 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 102 94 108 121 125 133 130 125 126 135 142 133 157 161 165 175 185 141 174 185 32.3 88 91 100 103 99 104 104 109 112 117 118 108 109 112 124 129 129 74 90 95 15.0 107 97 97 95 95 95 95 78 81 79 66 65 57 59 51 37 28 25 28 25 Data source: ABS, SA Government and Qld DSITIA 14