7th Grade Lesson Core Connections 2 MS-CCRS Taught 7.SP.C.5 1.2.1 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. 7.SP.C.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times. 7.SP.C.6 1.2.2 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times. 7.SP.C.7b Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land openend down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies? Lesson MS-CCRS Taught 7.SP.C.7a 1.2.3 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources College Preparatory Mathematics Focus for Lesson This is the ONLY lesson in the text that covers 7.SP.C.5 so the emphasis needs to be placed heavily here. (1-51) Chapter 1 MS-CCRS Specific Problem(s) Optional Supplements and Adjustments Pre-requisite standards and skills None No pre-requisite standards taught in prior grades. None No pre-requisite standards taught in prior grades. 7.SP.C.6 comes back up in a couple lessons and is in regards to approximations of probability and reasonableness. (1-55) 7.SP.C.6 again focuses on reasonableness and approximations of probability so questioning should reflect these ideas. (1-66) Having students observe frequencies to build a nonuniform probability model should be emphasized throughout the lesson, as it is reflective in 7.SP.C.7b. (1-63) Focus for Lesson This lesson focuses on equal probabilities. The wrap up of the lesson is vital to ensuring students understand the MS-CCRS Specific Problem(s) None Optional Supplements and Adjustments Pre-requisite standards and skills No pre-requisite standards taught in prior grades. Desoto County Schools 7th Grade 1.2.5 Core Connections 2 of the discrepancy. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected. point of the lesson. (1-78) 7.SP.C.8a This lesson serves as a review of fractions and links them to percentages. This idea will need to be linked to probability and is an introductory lesson for this standard. (1-101) Comparing various events using fraction models and is an introduction to compound events. (1-120 and 1-122) None No pre-requisite standards taught in prior grades. 1-124 (7.SP.C.8a) No pre-requisite standards taught in prior grades. Big idea for students is: although a compound event is made up of two events occurring, its probability is written with one fraction in relation to the new sample space. None Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. 7.SP.C.8a 1.2.7 1.2.8 Chapter 1 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. 7.SP.C.8a Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. 1-125 (7.SP.C.8a) No pre-requisite standards taught in prior grades. Assessment Understanding According to PARCC (Section Quiz and Chapter Assessment) MS-CCRS EOY or PBA Math Practice 7.SP.C.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is College Preparatory Mathematics Clarifications EOY 4 Calculator or No Calculator None Chapter Mastery Now Calculator Full mastery is expected. Future Desoto County Schools 7th Grade Core Connections 2 Chapter 1 neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. No future lesson. 7.SP.C.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times. EOY 4 7.SP.C.7a Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected. MS-CCRS 7.SP.C.7b Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies? 7.SP.C.8a Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. College Preparatory Mathematics Tasks require the students to make a prediction based on long-run relative frequency in data from a chance process. Data can be provided, or if the task is technologyenhanced, the task can simulate a datagathering process. Now Full mastery can be assessed Calculator Future Lesson 5.2.3 will review this standard on probability. Simple events only. Now Probabilities of simple events only. EOY 4 Calculator Future Lesson 5.2.1 will expand on uniform models. EOY or PBA Math Practice Clarifications EOY Calculator or No Calculator Now Data can be provided, or if the task is technology-enhanced, the task can simulate a data-gathering process. 4 Chapter Mastery Calculator This is an introductory lesson but does cover the entire standard. Future Lesson 5.2.2 reviews this standard with technology. EOY 4 and 5 None Calculator Now Exposure is limited Desoto County Schools 7th Grade Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. Core Connections 2 Chapter 1 to simple probability or compound probability of “either-or” type. No multiplying to events to find new probability. Future Lists, tables, and trees, and solving multiple event probability will be covered in chapter 5. College Preparatory Mathematics Desoto County Schools