UNIT PLANNER TEMPLATE
for Math
Grade Level: 7
Unit Number: 6
Unit Title: Probability
Unit Time Frame: 4-5 weeks
Unit Overview:
In this unit students will:
• be formally introduced to the study of probability.
• begin to understand the probability of chance (simple and
compound).
• develop and use sample spaces.
• compare experimental and theoretical probabilities.
• develop and use graphical organizers.
• use information from simulations for predictions.
• understand the probability of chance by using the benchmarks
of probability: 0, 12� and 1.
• experience situations that have clearly defined probability of
never happening as zero, equally likely to happen as to not
happen as 12� or always happening as 1.
• experience situations in which the probability is somewhere
between 0 and 1 and express the probability as number between
those benchmark values.
• make predictions about the relative frequency of an event by
using simulations to collect, record, organize and analyze data.
• develop the understanding that the more the simulation for an
event is repeated, the closer the experimental probability
approaches the theoretical probability.
• develop probability models to be used to find the probability of
events.
• develop models of equal outcomes and models of not equal
outcomes and use them to determine the probabilities of events.
• begin to expand the knowledge and understanding of the
probability of simple events.
• find the probabilities of compound events by creating
organized lists, tables and tree diagrams.
• determine, from each sample space, the probability or fraction
of each possible outcome.
• continue to build on the use of simulations for simple
probabilities and now expand the simulation of compound
probability.
Essential Learning:

• Probabilities are fractions derived from modeling real world
experiments and simulations of chance.
• Modeling real world experiments through trials and
simulations are used to predict the probability of a given event.
• Chance has no memory. For repeated trials of a simple
experiment, the outcome of prior trials has no impact on the
next.
Unit Standards (Suggested Teachable Order)
Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability
models.
7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0
and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers
indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a
probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a
probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the
chance process that produces it and observing its long‐run relative frequency,
and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For
example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be
rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events.
Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement
is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability
to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of
events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class,
find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a
girl will be selected.
b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by
observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For
example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will
land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open‐end down. Do
the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based
on the observed frequencies?
7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree
diagrams, and simulation.
a. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a
compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for
which the compound event occurs.
b. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such
as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in
everyday language (e.g., “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes
in the sample space which compose the event.
c. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events.
For example, use random digits as a simulation tool to approximate the answer
to the question: If 40% of donors have type A blood, what is the probability that
it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type A blood?
• The probability of a given event can be represented as a
fraction between 0 and 1.
• Probabilities are similar to percents. They are all between 0
and 1, where a probability of 0 means an outcome has 0%
chance of happening and a probability of 1 means that the
outcome will happen 100% of the time. A probability of 50%
means an even chance of the outcome occurring. 
• If we add the probabilities of every outcome in a sample space,
the sum should always equal 1.
• The experimental probability or relative frequency of outcomes
of an event can be used to estimate the exact probability of an
event.
• Experimental probability approaches theoretical probability
when the number of trials is large.
• Sometimes the outcome of one event does not affect the
outcome of another event. (This is when the outcomes are called
independent.)
• Tree diagrams are useful for describing relatively small sample
spaces and computing probabilities, as well as for visualizing why
the number of outcomes can be extremely large.
• Simulations can be used to collect data and estimate
probabilities for real situations that are sufficiently complex that
the theoretical probabilities are not obvious.
Supporting Standards:
7.RP.3 Use proportional relationships to solve multistep ratio and percent
problems.
7.NS.2 Apply and extend previous understandings of multiplication and division
and of fractions to multiply and divide rational numbers.
7.NS.3 Solve real‐world and mathematical problems involving the four
operations with rational numbers.
7.EE.3 Solve multi‐step real‐life and mathematical problems posed with positive
and negative rational numbers in any form (whole numbers, fractions, and
decimals), using tools strategically. Apply properties of operations as strategies
to calculate with numbers in any form; convert between forms as appropriate;
and assess the reasonableness of answers using mental computation and
estimation strategies.
7.SP.1 Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a
population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a
population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that
population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative
samples and support valid inferences.
7.SP.2 Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population
with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or
simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or
predictions.
Key Concepts:
Teacher Resources
Georgia Department of Education
https://www.georgiastandards.org/CommonCore/Common%20Core%20Frameworks/CCGPS_Math_7_7thGrade_Unit6SE.pdf
Vocabulary
Chance Process
Compound Event
Empirical
Event
Experimental Probability
Independent events
Probability
Probability Model
Relative Frequency of Outcomes
Sample space
Simple Event
Simulation
Theoretical Probability
Tree diagram
Standards-Based
Scoring Form
Mathematical Practices
1) Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.
2) Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3) Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of
others.
4) Model with mathematics.
5) Use appropriate tools strategically.
6) Attend to precision.
7) Look for and make use of structure.
8) Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.