Module Specification
An online version of this specification is available to prospective students at
http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/study/currentstudents/studentinformation/msc_module_handbook/section3_moduledescript/in
dex.html
GENERAL INFORMATION
Module name
Population Dynamics & Projections
Module code
2429
Module Organiser
Basia Zaba
Contact email
Basia.Zaba@lshtm.ac.uk
Home Faculty
Faculty of Epidemiology & Population Health
Level
This module is at Level 7 (postgraduate Masters ‘M’ level) of the QAA
Framework for Higher Education Qualifications in England, Wales & Northern
Ireland (FHEQ).
Credit
LSHTM award 15 credits on successful completion of this module.
Accreditation
Not currently accredited by any other body.
Keywords
Demography; Quantitative methods; Mathematical modelling;
International/global.
AIMS, OBJECTIVES AND AUDIENCE
Overall aim
To introduce students to the mathematical theory of changes in population size
and structure and its application to demographic estimation; to the types and
uses of demographic models; and to the principles and practicalities involved in
making population forecasts.
Intended learning
outcomes
By the end of this module, students should be able to:
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Define and interpret the main measures of fertility, mortality, migration
and age structure;
Describe and assess typical age patterns of fertility, mortality and migration
and explain the models commonly used to represent them;
Evaluate and explain the interactions between the components of
population change and the age structure of the population;
Explain the concept of population momentum;
Apply several estimation methods derived from the demographic theories
studied;
Construct national-level population projections using computer packages;
Review the main approaches used to forecast fertility, mortality and
migration.
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Target audience
The module is intended primarily for students on MSc Demography & Health
but is also suitable for others with an interest in mathematical modelling.
CONTENT
Session content
The module is expected to include sessions addressing the following topics
(though please note that these may be subject to change):
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Exponential growth (revision of basic concept).
Population measures of reproductive level and pace.
Stable population theory.
Models of fertility, mortality and migration, including survival time
approaches to fertility and migration analysis.
The effects of changes in fertility, mortality and migration on growth, age
composition and crude rates.
Population momentum and ageing.
Population projections and forecasts.
Ways of forecasting fertility, mortality and migration.
The concepts of quantum and tempo applied to synthetic cohort measures.
Variable growth rate methods as a generalisation of stable population
analysis and applications to demographic estimation in populations with
limited or defective data.
TEACHING, LEARNING AND ASSESSMENT
Study resources
provided or required
Outline materials, handbooks, readers and spreadsheet applications will all
provided to students.
Teaching and learning
methods
The 15 half-day sessions are a mixture of lectures and classroom and
computer-based practical classes. Detailed course notes are provided.
Assessment details
The assessment will involve producing a report for the non-specialist reader
interpreting the changes occurring in an example population using the sets of
demographic data provided in spreadsheet format. This is the only way that
the module is assessed and therefore accounts for 100% of the allocated grade.
For students who are required to re-sit, or granted a deferral or new attempt,
the task will be broadly similar to the original assessment but based on a
different example population undergoing a different combination of
demographic changes.
Assessment dates
The assessment task will be explained, and materials given out during lectures
in week 3, and the assessment will be due on the last Friday of Term 2.
For students who are required to re-sit, or granted a deferral or new attempt,
the next assessment deadline will be the standard School-recommended date in
mid/late September 2016.
Language of study and
assessment
English (please see ‘English language requirements’ below regarding the
standard required for entry).
TIMING AND MODE OF STUDY
Duration
The module runs for 5 weeks at 2.5 days per week, between Wednesday
lunchtime and Friday afternoon.
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Dates
For 2015-16, the module will start on Wednesday 24 February 2016 and finish
on Thursday 24th March 2016.
Timetable slot
The module runs in LSHTM timetable slot D2.
Mode of Study
The module is taught face-to-face in London. Both full-time and part-time
students follow the same schedule. For full-time students, other LSHTM
modules are available in the other half of the week for the C and D slots.
Learning time
The notional learning time for the module totals 150 hours, consisting of:
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Contact time ≈ 45 hours
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Directed self-study ≈ 20 hours
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Self-directed learning ≈ 60 hours
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Assessment, review and revision 25 hours.
APPLICATION, ADMISSION AND FEES
Pre-requisites
GCSE-level mathematics, together with an understanding of natural logs and
exponential growth, are needed to follow the mathematical aspects of material
introduced in this module. A thorough knowledge of demographic concepts
and methods equivalent to that taught in the term 1 Demographic Methods
module is needed.
English language
requirements
A strong command of the English language is necessary to benefit from
studying the module. Applicants whose first language is not English or whose
prior university studies have not been conducted wholly in English must fulfil
LSHTM’s English language requirements, with an acceptable score in an
approved test taken in the two years prior to entry. Applicants may be asked to
take a test even if the standard conditions have been met.
Student numbers
Student numbers are typically 20 per year; numbers may be capped due to
limitations in facilities or staffing.
Student selection
Preference will be given to LSHTM MSc students, particularly those registered
for the Demography and Health MSc, for whom this module is compulsory, and
other students who have completed the Demographic Methods module in term
1, and LSHTM research degree students. Other applicants meeting the entry
criteria will usually be offered a place in the order applications are received,
until any cap on numbers is reached. Applicants may be placed on a waiting list
and given priority the next time the module is run.
Partial Registration (partial participation) by LSHTM research degree students
is allowed for this module.
Fees
For registered LSHTM MSc students, fees for the module are included within
MSc fees (given on individual course prospectus pages).
If registering specifically for this module, as a stand-alone short course,
individual module fees will apply.
Tuition fees must be paid in full before commencing the module, or by any fee
deadline set by the Registry.
Scholarships
Scholarships are not available for individual modules. Some potential sources
of funding are detailed on the LSHTM website.
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Admission deadlines
For 2015-16:
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For registered LSHTM MSc students, the module choice deadline (for Term
2 and 3 modules) is Friday 20 November 2015.
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If registering specifically for this module, applications may be made at any
time. All applications should be submitted at the latest 8 weeks prior to the
start of the module. Formal registration will take place on the morning of
the first day of the module.
ABOUT THIS DOCUMENT
This module specification applies for the academic year 2015-16 .
Last revised: 22 June 2014 by Basia Zaba. Minor amendments 20 July 15 SDB
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St., London WC1E 7HT.
www.lshtm.ac.uk
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