1 Evaluating Carolina Bays As Surface Features In A Distal Ejecta Blanket: 2 Geophysical Flow Analysis Predicts Bay Orientations 3 4 Running Tile: Carolina Bays As Distal Ejecta 5 6 7 8 Michael E. Davias1 and Jeanette Gilbride2 9 Corresponding author: Michael E. Davias 10 11 e-mail: Michael@cintos.org 12 phone: 203-329-9044 13 14 1 Unaffiliated, 2 North Carolina State University 1 15 Abstract 16 The aligned oval basins known as "Carolina bays" are rimmed by distinctive deposits of siliciclastic 17 sands. This stratotype is notable for its lack of terrigeneous detritus, leptokurtic coarse-skewed size- 18 frequency grain distribution, hummocky cross-stratification, and invariant mineral composition at any 19 given locale. Gradualistic processes are commonly held accountable, although this specific 20 combination of traits is challenging for eolian, fluvial or marine depositional mechanisms. As an 21 alternative mechanism, we posit the distal emplacement of an ejecta blanket, rendered as fluidized 22 sand, emanating from a cosmic impact into sedimentary strata beneath the Wisconsinan ice sheet. We 23 interpret the basins to be voids created within the superheated ejecta blanket during a high-energy 24 deposition, such that basin orientations may represent the ejecta's arrival bearing, facilitating the use of 25 a triangulation network to identify the source crater. Previous attempts to triangulate bay orientations 26 have failed, as large-scale geophysical flow effects of an ejecta distribution were not considered. To 27 test our hypothesis, we engineered and implemented an analytical model to generate arrival bearings 28 reflecting ballistic trajectories over a rotating sphere, and its results compared to bay orientations seen 29 in a catalogue representing ~100,000 basins across North America. Our model's predictions correlate 30 well with actual bay orientations when an oblique cosmic impact in the Saginaw area of Michigan is 31 considered. Results from our research imply that the Carolina bays are depositional artifacts in an 32 ejecta blanket, chronologically constrained to ca 40.5 ka. A web-based version of the model is 33 available to facilitate independent testing of the hypothesis. 2 34 Prologue 35 In his scholarly examination of numerous then-current hypotheses for the genesis of Carolina bays, 36 Douglas Johnson stated: “No one has yet invented an explanation which will fully account for all the 37 facts observed” (1942). 70 years later, the geomorphology of these ovoid basins continue to challenge. 38 Their sheer numbers, bedding in an anomalous stratum of homogeneous sand, distinctly geometrical 39 circumpheral rims, variety of sizes, and common alignments across significant relief in any one area 40 are seen by us as enigmatic. We view the bays collectively as a geological singularity, justifying a non- 41 classical solution. Although it is possible that future models and/or observations may solve this 42 enigma, it has motivated us to explore a potential independent solution. The genesis of this exploration 43 was a visit made by the authors in 2005 to an expansive exhibit about the Carolina bays at the North 44 Carolina State Museum of Natural Sciences, Raleigh, North Carolina. 45 The inspiration for our ejecta deposition hypothesis was an observation by R. B. Daniels, et al (1970): 46 The Goldsboro ridge is a unique feature on the Sunderland surface and requires special 47 explanation whatever its origin. It must be either an erosional remnant of a once more extensive 48 sediment or a depositional feature. ...The Goldsboro sand overlies the Sunderland Formation 49 conformably. The contact is always abrupt but there is no evidence of deep channeling, basal 50 coarse material, and evidence of weathering at the contact. Even the Carolina Bays do not disturb 51 the underlying Sunderland materials.... The sand in the bay rim is not different from the Goldsboro 52 sand. Therefore, these Carolina Bays are merely surface features associated with the formation of 53 the ridge. 54 55 3 1 Introduction 56 57 Photographs of the Carolina bays have been available from the air since the early 1930’s. Those early 58 images sparked extensive research into their genesis, yet they reveal only a small part of their unique 59 planforms. Digital elevation maps (DEM) created with today’s Laser Imaging and Range Detection 60 (LiDAR) systems accentuates their already-stunning visual presentation, allowing for the identification 61 and classification of even greater quantities of these shallow basins across North America (Post, S. H., 62 et al 2009). Our research was enabled to a large part by the facilities and satellite imagery of the 63 Google Earth (GE) Geographic Information System (GIS), augmented with LiDAR imagery. 64 Researchers generally consider the bays to be formed within or excised from pre-existing strata 65 through impact or by eolian, fluvial or marine (or combinations) processes. (Prouty, 1952; Eyton & 66 Parkhurst, 1975, Ivester, et al, 2007). On case-by-case evaluations, certain bays will be satisfactorily 67 explained, but those explanations never fit more than a small subset of the depressions and fail 68 Johnson’s “fully account” test. Some of the characteristics are seen in sand dunes or wind-oriented 69 paleolakes; such comparisons are unsatisfactory to us. While we are proposing a cosmic connection, 70 we also fully support the conclusions reached by Dr. Johnson (and by numerous others in more recent 71 research), which have comfortably dismissed either primary impact or secondary impact events for the 72 bays geomorphology. 73 In direct contrast to all previous work, we propose that the bays are surface features within a blanket of 74 ballistically deposited ejecta, draped conformably over antecedent topography and creating a 75 palimpsest upon which much geological history has been written in the form of lacustrine and eolian 76 development within and about those basins. We maintain that all of Johnson’s observations dismissing 4 77 an impact scenario can be viewed as supportive of a blanket deposition, although he did not entertain 78 the possibility. Notable among his observations in which we see correlation are: 79 Unit structure of the rim and surrounding pediments (single stratum) 80 Homogeneity of characteristics across the rims’ bulk 81 Challenging lack of terrigeneous detritus in the stratum 82 Rim material is not locally derived from underlying strata (nor do they deform them) 83 Overprinting of pre-existing drainage channels 84 Transgression of those channels across the bay’s rims at inappropriate locations 85 1.1 Carolina bay Geomorphology 86 The hypothesis holds that glacial ices, excised sedimentary strata, and elements of the impactor 87 shattered into small particles during the cosmic impact and intermixed in the ejecta curtain wall. The 88 resulting 1-10 meter-thick layer of distal ejecta was spread differentially across North America, 89 primarily within an annulus located at 900 to 1400 km from impact. We posit that relatively shallow 90 basins were created as surface features during the energetic deflation of steam inclusions in the ejecta 91 blanket; effectively “popped bubbles”, often manifested as a void in the blanket. This high- 92 temperature, high-pressure emplacement created an unconsolidated rim stratum that has maintained its 93 structural integrity over time. The authors believe this interpretation explains the bays’ geophysical 94 characteristics, such as companion bays across a continuum of elevations, occasionally intersecting or 95 overlaying one another, as well as the creation of bays on ridges which are themselves comprised of 96 identical homogeneous sediment (which is our interpretation of the Goldsboro Ridge in North Carolina 97 (Daniels and Gamble, 1970)). 5 98 Other workers proposing classic geomorphic mechanisms for the genesis of these enigmatic landforms 99 (Grant, et al., 1998, Ivester, et al., 2007) have, in our opinion, not taken the opportunity to view these 100 striking oval planforms using high-resolution LiDAR imagery, their planforms repeating in quantities 101 of hundreds of thousands. Figure 1 displays the typical assortment of bay planform as existent across a 102 ~1,400 km2 area of North Carolina. We see the visualization of bays, both in size and juxtaposition, as 103 a simple physical fractal distribution. We demonstrate such a distribution in a field of soap bubbles, as 104 shown in Figure 2. The interiors of many Carolina bays possess classic lacustrine sediment 105 stratigraphy and enclosing shoreline sediments, which is fully appropriate for a basin existing for tens 106 of thousands of years in areas of high water tables. 107 1.2 Annular Distribution of Siliciclastic Sand as Ejecta 108 Our hypothesis proposes that distal ejecta at 1,000 km distance from a cosmic impact (~5 crater 109 diameters) would be materialized as an annular ring of hummocky sand deposits. Distal ejecta from 110 the recent oblique impacts of the SL-9 fragments into Jupiter have been imaged and evaluated as 111 distributed along an annular ring, offset laterally and downrange of the impact trajectory. (Harrington, 112 2003). Other workers have comfortably verified the bay’s coarse-skewed sand rim stratum as being 113 anomalously uniform in grain size, mineral content and color across their horizontal and vertical extent 114 at a given bay. Our proposal offers an explanation for this, as an individual bay’s bulk ejecta are likely 115 derived from the shattering of a common sedimentary unit during crater excavation, while allowing for 116 the variability of sand composition seen at other bays as the impactor proceeded through other 117 sedimentary units. 118 We interpret the presence of coarse sand ejecta at the identified distances of 900 km to 1400 km to be 119 attributable to the differential winnowing out of components from the ejecta curtain wall as a function 6 120 of density. We predict that lighter components would have experienced longer loft times, while higher 121 density components would fall out of the expanding curtain wall closer to the impact site. We also 122 suspect grain size sorting within the ejecta curtain wall may play a role in yielding the tightly 123 constrained range of coarse skewed grain sizes seen in individual bay rim deposits. The preference for 124 creation of bay depressions at these distances is not well understood, but may be associated with the 125 delivery of the posited superheated hydrous mixture only within those distances, based on a pressure 126 gradient in the expanding ejecta curtain wall. 127 While the common view of ejecta is as cobbles or melt (near field) or microscopic particles (at global 128 distances), we deem it appropriate to propose an intermediate class of ejecta similar to the deposits 129 seen in the Carolina bay rims and pediments. Studies of ejecta from the Chicxulub event has identified 130 distal (~1,000 km) deposits of sandstones comprised of coarse skewed, homogeneous clastic quartz 131 constituents, seen in a mottled, unstratified unit measuring in the tens of meters in vertical extent 132 (Goldin,T., 2009; Schulte,et al,. 2010; Bralower, et al., 2010), although uncertainties exists as to their 133 relationship to the impact. 134 1.3 The Saginaw Impact Crater 135 The lack of a correlated impact structure in North America is problematic for any attempt to implicate 136 a cosmic impact in the genesis of the Carolina bays. While it is beyond the scope of this exercise to 137 fully validate our selection of the Saginaw area of Michigan as a proposed impact location, we feel a 138 brief presentation of our argument is appropriate here. 139 Using the measured alignments of an initial 40 Carolina bay fields, we generated great circle paths for 140 visualization in Google Earth. This yielded a fuzzy triangulation locus centered at 43.5 N, 89.5 W. 141 Our analysis implies that a great circle triangulation would yield an erroneous “surrogate” impact 7 142 location, offset to the west. A flight-time adjustment of the crater eastward along the 43.5º N Parallel 143 (taking into account the Earth rotating .25 degrees of arc every clock minute) directs us towards the 144 actual impact site (discussed in more detail in 2.3.2). We heuristically examined various geological 145 depression found along that transit, and selected the Saginaw area of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula for 146 further analysis. ` 147 The authors are respectful of the acceptance of the Saginaw area as a glacially carved landscape. 148 Indeed, we propose the presence of a thick ice sheet over the Lower Peninsula on the impact date. The 149 ice sheet offers a rationale for the relatively shallow “crater” seen in the area today, while at the same 150 time providing the significant volume of water necessary to create the posited hydrated slurry. 151 Implicating the ice sheet also provides a vehicle to re-distribute the local crater ejecta across a wide 152 area as “glacial till”. A cross-section schematic of the proposed crater is shown in Figure 3. 153 It is generally understood that glacial activity removed vast quantities of softer strata from around the 154 Michigan Basin’s periphery (i.e., Lakes Michigan, Huron and Erie), however the ice sheet was 155 unsuccessful in breaching the cuestas encircling the center of the basin with one major exception – 156 Saginaw Bay (Rieck and Winters, 1982). 157 Our hypothesis holds that the impacting object was a massive low-density hydrated silicate object, 158 likely a cometary body, which impacted the Earth on a shallow angle, nearly tangential to the Earth’s 159 surface. Remote sensing has show that approximately 5% of all craters are created during such oblique 160 impacts, creating a set of recognizable characteristics: oval shape, butterfly ejecta pattern, “no-fly” 161 ejecta area up field, and “blow-out” rim down field. (Herrick, R.R, 2009; Herrick R.R. and K. Hessen, 162 2003). Recent studies suggest that impacts into solid surfaces protected by a layer of low impedance 163 materials produces structures that differ from classic planforms (Schultz, 2007; Schultz and Stickle, 8 164 2009). In our specific case, we invoke the Wisconsinan ice shield as a low-impedance layer protecting 165 the sedimentary strata of the Michigan basin. The mechanism for removal of terrestrial material is seen 166 as shearing rather than compression, thus many of the classic impact markers (such as shocked quartz) 167 are not expected. 168 Using remote imaging tools, we note that the Saginaw region exhibits a geometrically oval shaped 169 depression, oriented SW to NE, which correlates well with the ejecta symmetry (see Figure 4). 170 Research by others utilizing remote sensing tools (Herrick and Hessen, 2003) have shown oblique 171 impact craters often display the deepest excavation at the up range end of the crater, which here falls in 172 the northeast end of our proposed Saginaw crater, where one of the deepest areas of Lake Huron exists 173 – the Bay City Basin. Another attribute of oblique impact planforms is a ridge – likely rebound strata – 174 down the center of the structure. Here, the Charity Islands exist along the oval’s centerline. 175 We expect that the Huron lobe of the Ice sheet would have advanced into the excavated crater from the 176 Huron basin, bulldozing the collapsed ice crater ramparts, leaving the present-day terminal moraines 177 behind as it deglaciated. Research has indicated that the Saginaw lobe was absent from southern 178 Michigan while the Lake Michigan, Huron-Erie, and Erie lobes continued to advance during the latter 179 part of the Wisconsinan glaciation (Brown, et al., 2006). 180 1.4 Ejecta Flow Analytical Model 181 An ejecta curtain wall radiating outward from an impact site should follow a few basic physical laws 182 involving ballistic trajectories over a rotating spherical surface. We present a heuristically engineered 183 analytical model that replicates those trajectories and generates a prediction of bay orientations, based 184 on the momentum/velocity vectors that would have been inherent in the ejecta blanket at the moment 185 of emplacement. The model is controlled by two variables related to the velocity of the ejecta in the 9 186 ground plane: average velocity of the loft (as an input parameter) and terminal velocity during 187 atmospheric re-entry (calculated from ejecta property parameters: density and a coefficient of drag, 188 Cd). A positive correlation between the model-generated orientations and actual bay orientations 189 could be considered as validating the relevance of the model’s algorithm and offer support for the 190 distal ejecta blanket hypothesis. 191 192 2 Methods 2.1 Determining the Geographical Extent of Carolina bay landforms 193 Using the facilities and satellite imagery of the Google Earth GIS, augmented with high resolution 194 LiDAR imagery, a survey was undertaken to catalogue the extent of Carolina bays, indexed as 195 localized “fields”. The Global Mapper GIS application was used to generate LiDAR image overlays 196 for visualization in Google Earth, using 1/9 and 1/3 arc-second DEM data from the United States 197 Geological Survey (http://nationalmap.gov/viewers.html), and 1/9 arc-second DEM data from the 198 Nebraska Department of Natural Resources (http://dnr.ne.gov/floodplain/lidar.html). 199 Estimations of the bays’ numerical quantity extends into the hundreds of thousands, therefore no 200 attempt was made to identify all such landforms; instead each field was selected to be rigorously 201 representative of the distribution in a given locale. 202 Identifying Carolina bays on the costal plain is straight forward, given their solid identification, 203 however bay planforms tend towards a circular presentation in the northern and southern extremes of 204 their geographic extent, presenting challenges. Also challenging is the rougher terrain seen when 205 moving inland. If a landing area is level and moist, we propose the bays will be stabilized. Conversely, 206 if the area is dry, the blanket will be reworked into a generic dune field, obliterating any bay formation. 10 207 When the landing field is in rough terrain, we propose it is sloughed off. We suspect that access to high 208 resolution LiDAR DEMs in more regions would aid in expanding the bays’ identified range. 209 While there is much research discussing Carolina bays in the east, little attention has been paid to the 210 significant quantity of aligned, oval basins in the Midwest (Zanner and Kuzila, 2001). These basins are 211 aligned SW ➔NE (Figure 5), intersecting the eastern bay’s SE ➔NW orientations, and are considered 212 to be vital components of the crater triangulation network. 213 The survey resulted in a catalogue of ~220 fields of Carolina bays, managed in a spreadsheet database 214 and in a Keyhole Markup Language (kml) metadata file. The catalogue is available for interactive 215 visualization on Google Earth’s virtual globe using the kml file available at 216 http://cintos.org/ge/SaginawKML/Distal_Ejecta_Fields.kmz. A basic text listing of the fields is 217 presented in Appendix A. 218 2.2 Assigning Bay Arrival Bearings 219 Our working hypothesis that Carolina bays represent depositional features in an ejecta blanket leads to 220 a corollary that the arrival bearing is a momentum artifact, aligned along the bays’ major axis. To 221 measure and capture this alignment, we employ a graticule overlay on Google Earth’s virtual globe 222 (Figure 5). The overlay is manually rotated so that it aligns with the user’s interpretation of orientation; 223 the rotational value is captured in the overlay’s metadata. Since bays are rarely perfect ellipsoids and 224 have often been reworked by other processes, the interpretation is better qualified by comparison with 225 companion bays, so as to be representative of all basins in the immediate area. 226 While the bays of North and South Carolina are seen as elongated ellipsoids, bays to the north and to 227 the south, often do not present the elongation necessary for determining orientation. We do see a 11 228 predisposition for having a segment of the enclosing rim that is wider & higher than the opposing side. 229 For the purpose of this discussion, we have interpreted the “alignment” of near-circular bays to be 230 from the shallow side to the wider rim. 231 2.3 Correlating Carolina bay Orientations 232 Attempts by others to correlate bays’ orientations across their extent have failed (Eyton, J.R. and 233 Parkhurst, J.I., 1975), as they typically were accomplished by drawing straight lines on flat-earth maps. 234 We propose that satisfactory correlation can be obtained by applying several physical aspects of 235 planetary-scale ejecta trajectories, a process not considered as relevant by previous workers. First, the 236 impact may have generated ejecta from a broad geographic extent. Secondly, a planetary body rotates 237 during any realistic ejecta flight-time. Third, the west-to-east ground-velocity between the ejection site 238 and the landing site differs, and the difference will be resolved as the ejecta re-enters the atmosphere 239 and strikes the Earth. Also a factor is the interpretation of a given bay’s orientation, as the bays rarely 240 present a geometrically pure ovoid form (Johnson, D., 1942). The reader should consider that generic 241 computations for ballistic physics do not need to consider the resulting ground-plane velocity vector 242 when determining a singular point-of-impact. 243 2.3.1 Bearing Adjustments Based on The Spherical Earth Surface 244 Ejecta will follow a great circle path as it proceeds along a trajectory. For example, if an object is 245 launched with sufficient velocity on an azimuth of 90º from latitude 45º North (i.e. due East), it will 246 follow a great circle route as it begins to circle the Earth’s surface. The Cartesian coordinate “bearing” 247 of our example object begins to “turn” south, and eventually crosses the equator on an azimuth of 135º. 248 During the flight period the Earth would be rotating beneath the ejecta’s trajectory path; the landing 249 location of the ejecta will actually be westward of the static-Earth target. 12 250 2.3.2 Bearing Adjustments Based on A Rotating Earth 251 Restricted to a static, non-rotating Earth, a set of Great Circle trajectories can be tracked backward 252 using Carolina bay measured arrival bearings to create a triangulation network. The locus of any such 253 triangulation would be erroneously offset westward based on the Earth’s rotation of 1 degree of 254 Longitude for each 4 minutes of ejecta flight-time. Further, that flight-time is based on the loft distance 255 and average transit velocity. To address this, our model’s algorithm considers the perspective of the 256 emplaced ejecta site and applies a conceit that a static-Earth surrogate “target” site can be envisioned 257 offset eastward using that same formula. Significantly, we interpret the bearing of the velocity vector 258 seen at the surrogate “static-Earth” target as the relevant value imprinted in the bay’s orientation, rather 259 than one derived from the geometric relationship between the cosmic impact site and the actual 260 rotating-Earth emplacement site. We will consider the static-Earth arrival bearing value at the 261 surrogate target to be the “baseline”, which is further refined in the model’s next step. 262 2.3.3 Bearing Adjustments Based On Latitude 263 While the Coriolis force component is systematic by flight-time, there is another factor superimposed 264 on alignment that is systematic by latitude. Here, we account for ground speed differences between any 265 two particular spots on the earth, which is a function of the cosine of the locations’ latitudes. The end 266 cases are the poles – where the ground velocity W➔E due to rotation is negligible – and the equator – 267 where the ground speed W➔E is ~1,670 km per hour. 268 Using a specific example, the surface rotational velocity of the proposed Saginaw crater is 1208 km/h. 269 Material ejected eastward and arriving at Bishopville will interact with the atmosphere and surface 270 rotating at 112 km/hr faster. Combining the static-Earth ejecta velocity and relative ground velocity 13 271 vectors causes a) atmospheric push of the ejecta and b) target drag resulting in a target contact velocity 272 vector, which will be rotated relative to the static-Earth velocity vector. 273 2.4 The Analytical Model 274 We present a model for an ejecta curtain wall radiating outward from an impact site that represents the 275 adjustments made for ballistic trajectories over a rotating sphere (discussed in 2.3), heuristically 276 engineered to predict Carolina bays’ orientations. It was our intent to only identify and address first- 277 order magnitude effects, given the expected chaotic distribution of ejecta velocities, densities and 278 directions. Numerical methods to evaluate ballistic trajectories at a planetary scale have been 279 developed to generate flight distances and distribution envelopes (Jessup, K.L., et al., 2000). While 280 those are relevant calculations for some aspects of our study, they do not attempt to predict flow 281 orientations at emplacement. 282 Our Carolina bay catalogue spreadsheet was extended with analytical formulas to generate predictions 283 based on the spherical-Earth, flight-time and latitude adjustments, enabling it to generate a solution for 284 each catalogued field’s predicted bearing while physically relevant parameters such as average and 285 terminal velocity for the ejecta are adjusted. Charts are generated within the spreadsheet to correlate 286 the predicted bearing values with measured values, allowing heuristic tuning of the variables to 287 identify best-fit solutions simultaneously across all bay fields. The spreadsheet also generates 288 catalogue-wide sets of KML to visualize on the Google Earth virtual globe. 289 A Java calculator was developed in parallel with the spreadsheet, and specifically engineered to 290 interface with the Google Earth virtual globe. Using the Google Earth "Placemark" metadata element, 291 the location's latitude and longitude (typically the center of a bay) are captured and annotated. The 292 calculator processes the placemark and returns a set of Google Earth elements that represent the 14 293 numerical model's predicted ejecta arrival vector. The model is heuristically focused on the latitude 294 and longitude of the proposed Saginaw crater’s three control points (NE, Centroid and SW); the 295 calculator returns predictions for ejecta emanating from those three locations. The graticule alignment 296 overlay, previously mentioned, is provided for the visualization of the vector on the virtual globe, 297 rotated to reflect ejecta emanating from the crater centroid. 298 The calculator also has a function used to invert the numerical process. Here, a user-adjusted alignment 299 overlay on the virtual globe is used to capture a best-guess visual match with the bay orientation (see 300 Figure 5). The overlay element is processed by the calculator, which returns a triangulation trajectory 301 to a putative crater. In all cases, the data transfer is accomplished by using Google Earth's "Keyhole 302 Markup Language" (KML), a dialect of XML specifically created to encapsulate geographic 303 information system datum. 304 We note that the calculator’s two functions represent true inverted calculations. As such, an arrival- 305 bearing vector generated by the prediction feature, when then used as input to the triangulation feature, 306 will always generate a trajectory back to the ejection location used in the original prediction. 307 2.4.1 Model Variables 308 The model’s variables are segregated into those that are adjusted at each evaluated site (the latitude and 309 longitude of the bay location) and those currently applied as constants across all predictions (selected 310 by best-fit solution across all evaluated bays, but can be adjusted by the user). The latter are explained 311 below: 312 A) Crater latitude and longitude parameters (selected as Centroid: 43.68N, 84.82W, Rampart 313 SW: 43.724N, 84.944W, Rampart NE: 44.624N, 82.659W) 15 314 B) A reasonable average ground-vector velocity for the ejecta, as heuristically derived from our 315 analysis. Satisfactory simultaneous solutions range from 1km/sec to 5 km/sec, with 3km/sec 316 selected as default based on sensitivity testing. 317 C) Three variables to generate a reasonable terminal velocity V (currently 381 m/sec) using a 318 generic formula, for arbitrary 1-meter diameter “droplet” of ejecta: 319 V = sqrt ( 2 * W) / (Cd * r * A), 320 where W is droplet weight, (in Newtons), r is a density variable (selected as 2,000 321 kg/meter^3) , and A is the frontal area of that droplet. Cd is the Coefficient of drag of 322 the ejecta droplet (selected as 0.3). 323 D) An incidence angle for ground impact to resolve ground-plane velocities (selected as 45º 324 from vertical). The resulting ground vector of terminal velocity is 269 m/sec with the 325 default variables. 326 2.4.2 Calculations for Flight-Time and Longitude Offset Values 327 The longitude offset calculation for a given bay location is derived using a simple flight-time to 328 longitude relationship: 329 Longitude offset in degrees = Flight-time (minutes) /4 330 Where Flight-time = Loft Distance / Average Ground Velocity (default 3 km/sec) 331 The Loft Distance between the crater centroid location and that of the bay is derived using the 332 spherical law of cosines, applied in the following Java routine. All variables in radians: 16 333 private double GreatCircleDistance(double lat1, double lon1, double lat2, double 334 lon2) { 335 double dLat = (lat2 - lat1); double dLon = (lon2 - lon1); 336 double a = Math.sin(dLat / 2) * Math.sin(dLat / 2) + Math.cos(lat1) 337 * Math.cos(lat2) * Math.sin(dLon / 2) * Math.sin(dLon / 2); 338 return (EarthRadius * 2 * Math.atan2(Math.sqrt(a), Math.sqrt(1 - a)));} 339 2.4.3 Determining Baseline (Static-Earth) Bearing 340 Once determined, the model uses the longitude offset value to identify a surrogate static-Earth target to 341 the east of the bay, by subtracting the offset from the bay’s longitude value. The surrogate target site is 342 then used to generate a baseline arrival bearing for ejecta as lofted from the impact crater’s 343 coordinates. A java routine is invoked to generate the bearing as seen from the surrogate bay target 344 (lat1, lon1) towards crater control point (lat2, lon2). We invert the bearing 180º to create an arrival 345 bearing. Functions convdr and convrd are used to convert between radians and degrees: 346 private double GreatCircleBearing(double lat1, double lon1, double lat2, 347 double lon2) { 348 double y = Math.sin(dLon) * Math.cos(lat2); 349 double x = Math.cos(lat1) * Math.sin(lat2) - Math.sin(lat1) 350 double dLon = (lon2 - lon1); * Math.cos(lat2) * Math.cos(dLon); 351 double Bearing = 180 + (Math.atan2(y, x) * convrd); 352 return (Bearing * convdr); } 17 353 The process above is performed three times, identifying a base bearing for each of the three crater 354 control points. 355 2.4.4 Applying Latitude-difference Adjustments to Base Bearing 356 Figure 6 depicts the trigonometry used to adjust the arrival bearing prediction based on the latitude- 357 driven W➔E Earth ground and atmosphere rotational velocities. In our specific proposal, a relevant 358 set of W➔E velocities would be the Saginaw crater – rotating at 1,208 km/hr – and a generic ejecta 359 field such as Bishopville – rotating 112 km/hr faster (deltaV). We first decompose the ejecta’s 360 terminal velocity vector (termv) to yield its W➔E component, using the base bearing ( “_C” 361 references the centroid calculation, also done for _SW and _NE): 362 EWcomponent_C = termv * Math.cos(baseBearing_C) + c_deltaV; 363 Next, the bearing is re-composed using ACOS and the adjusted W➔E component: 364 componentBearing_C = Math.acos( EWcomponent_C / termv); 365 Finally, the bearing is cast into the proper compass quadrant (lost in the ACOS trigonometry) using a 366 previously extracted compass quadrant of the static-Earth base arrival bearing: 367 PredictedBearing_C = ((componentBearing_C * convrd) + (latQuadrant_C * 90)); 368 The full Java code set includes routines to deal with compass cardinal point crossings and modulo 360º 369 adjustments required for conversions between trigonometric notation (-180º ➔ +180º) and compass 370 bearing spherical notation (0º ➔ 360º). The model uses the predicted bearings to generate Google 371 Earth kml visualization elements (paths, overlays and placemarks) for display in the GIS viewer. 18 372 2.5 Independent Testing of Hypothesis 373 To facilitate independent testing of the hypothesis, a web-based Java calculator version of the 374 analytical model is available for interoperation with Google Earth (GE). A bay’s latitude and 375 longitude are captured using a “Placemark” kml element, which the calculator uses to generate a 376 predicted orientation for visualization in GE. The calculator can also invert the algorithm, providing a 377 “walk-back” to the putative crater by processing a user-adjusted overlay element (representing their 378 interpretation of the actual bay orientation) as the input datum. Data transfers between GE and the 379 calculator are accomplished with kml metadata. Access to the calculator is via the web link 380 http://cintos.org/java/PredictBearings/PredictBearings.html , which requires a Java-enabled browser to 381 execute, and access to a Google Earth run-time instance to exchange kml data with, allowing for the 382 visualization of the predicted trajectories on the virtual globe. 3 Results 383 384 3.1 Geographical Bay Distribution 385 Our first correlation considers the great circle distance from each field back to the proposed impact 386 site, and their symmetrical distribution around it. As shown in Figure 7, a high degree of correlation 387 exists, suggesting that the bays are geographically placed in an annular distribution centered on the 388 Saginaw impact. Loft distance to the Midwest are nearly identical to those in Southeastern areas, 389 suggesting a general trend of longer flight distances down range compared to those normal to the 390 crater’s major axis, which display shorter flight distances. 19 391 The geometric shape presented by the coastline of the Eastern US, and its hospitable hosting relief 392 compromises our interpretation of the arcs to some extent. This concern is partially addressed by the 393 solid correlation of the Nebraska bays’ loft distances to those in the Southern US. 394 We assume that areas north of the impact site were covered in glacial ice sheet at ~40 ka, prohibiting 395 the survival of bays that may have been created within a supraglacial ejecta blanket. There are 396 indications of a significant supraglacial clastic deposition over Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas 397 during the Wisconsinan glaciation, however. We propose that a supraglacial blanket of debris is 398 responsible for the large quantity of ice walled lake plains existent across that region, created by a 399 process that demands the presence of a thick cover of supraglacial sediment. Workers currently 400 implicate stagnant ice mechanisms for the required supraglacial material, although such conditions are 401 unexpected in the quantities found at great distances from terminal ice margins, and where offshore 402 sediment deposits measuring in the tens of meters have been identified (Clayton, et al., 2008). 403 3.2 Predictions of Bay Orientations 404 The ~220 evaluated bay fields represent many thousands of individual bays, and our solution sets are 405 computed across all of them simultaneously. The results we present were generated using constants for 406 all input parameters, the exception being the individual bay’s latitude and longitude values. The chart 407 in Figure 8 presents results obtained using our current best-fit parameter settings of 3-km/sec average 408 velocity and a droplet density of 2,000 kg/m2 and Cd of 0.3 (yielding a terminal velocity of ~270 409 m/sec). A robust correlation is shown between the measured bearings and the predicted bearings. 410 While it would seem plausible that the ejecta at any given location may actually have a varying density 411 or velocity, the model did not need such fine-tuning to arrive at satisfactory solution. 20 412 3.3 Variable Sensitivity Testing 413 We have identified a range of variable value sets, each of which will generate valid bay orientation 414 predictions simultaneously across all bay fields. A variable sensitivity analysis is graphed in Figure 9. 415 Generic ballistic computation programs yield flight-times in the range of 4 to 8 minutes for the 416 distances involved, assuming solutions where the arrival angle of incidence is shallow enough to 417 produce the expected momentum-driven elongation of the bays. Given our current field catalogue, the 418 use of a 3.0 km/sec average flight velocity (in ground plane) yields an average loft time value of 5.86 419 minutes. 420 3.4 Estimation of Ejecta Distributed Volume 421 Generation of a 1 to 10 meter blanket of ejecta across the proposed annulus necessitates a very 422 significant volume of material. While the overlying glacial sheet provided a significant portion of the 423 proposed ejecta, its volatile nature mandates that it cannot be considered in any current-day deposits. 424 Terrestrial minerals from the Saginaw Basin’s sedimentary strata and elements of the impactor are 425 therefore considered here. 426 Our proposed Saginaw crater was engineered in Global Mapper as an oval Path Profile upon the USGS 427 1/3 arc second DEM data for Michigan’s Lower Peninsula. The programs “Fill” function was used to 428 calculate the amount of material to fill the oval up to an elevation of 300 meters above mean sea level 429 (MSL) from the current elevations, resulting in a volume of ca 20,000 km2. The floor of the Saginaw 430 Lobe is blanketed with a substantial layer of glacial till, which we propose was created by the in-flow 431 of local ejecta originally deposited on the ice shield, which later collapsed into the crater. While much 432 of the ejecta would be expected to be deposited locally, after accounting for the crater back-fill just 21 433 discussed, we suggest a budget 50% of the measured missing volume should to be applied to each 434 proximal and distal ejecta. The distal ejecta volume to be considered is therefore ~10,000 km3. 435 The impactor’s mineral content is proposed by us to be rendered into siliciclastic elements, similar to 436 the excised terrestrial sedimentary. We propose a speculative-sized 20 km-diameter impactor would 437 yield an additional ejecta distribution. Given a sphere’s volume 438 = 4/3 • π • r³ 439 , the calculation yields an additional ca 4,000 km3 of ejecta. We speculatively budget ~50% 440 contribution to distal ejecta, or ~2,000 km3. Combined with the excavated component, a net ~12,000 441 km3 is proposed as the distal distribution. 442 The butterfly/annular distribution places ejecta across 70% of the annulus surrounding the crater, at 443 distances of 900 to 1,400 km. The area of an annulus A is given as 444 A = π • R2 - π • r2 445 , where R is the outer radius (1,400) and r is the inner radius (900). After accounting for the 70% aerial 446 distribution due to the butterfly pattern, the calculation yields an area of ~1.4 million km2. If we 447 consider the above budget of ~12,000 km3 distal ejecta, an average ejecta depth of 448 12,000 km3 / 1,400,000 km2 = .0085 km ≈ 8 meters. 449 The value is within the proposed 1 to 10 meters of blanketing ejecta. We acknowledge that this 450 exercise is quite speculative, but believe it demonstrates a reasonable accounting for the extensive 451 distal ejecta blanket proposed. 22 4 Discussion 452 4.1 Event Chronology 453 454 Geochronology techniques are available to place constraints on the timing of recent events, including 455 carbon dating, thermo-stimulated luminescence (TSL), optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), and 456 thermally transferred OSL (TT-OSL). Identification of a wide date range for elements of the bays’ 457 underlying basin structure would falsify any impact hypothesis, and other workers have reported such 458 results (Ivester, et al., 2007) using OSL techniques. 459 Our position on OSL dating is that it does support our hypothesis if properly applied. In numerous bay 460 examples, we suggest the energetic formation of the burst-bubble rim generated a void in the ejecta 461 sheet, allowing core samples taken within the bowl of the basin to progress through the deposition 462 horizon and into the hosting strata with no discernable transition. This allows for a continuum of 463 chronological samples through the Pleistocene. OSL technology, with its dependence on exposure to 464 sunlight for multiple hours, has applicability to gradualistic sedimentary processes and may hold no 465 relevance within the context of a mass deposition of ejecta, while TSL may hold more promise given a 466 superheated ejecta regimen. Obviously, the environs around and within the basins were subject to 467 reworking and the infilling of newer sediment over the intervening millennia. Attempts at applying 468 dating techniques must discriminate between the two depositional sequences, and we propose that 469 constraints imposed by dating depositional surfaces immediately below and above the bay stratum may 470 be more appropriate. Our LiDAR images show numerous situations where true wind-driven dune 471 systems are overriding bay structures, at angles totally unrelated to the bays’ orientations; see Figure 472 10. 23 473 We call attention to several geological anomalies that may correlate with the Carolina bays and which 474 offer support for dating the event ca 40 ka: 475 1) Ejecta deposition on the scale proposed would have created collateral damage to the North 476 American environment. Burials of fauna, flora and paleosols would be evident beneath the blanket. 477 One example of this may be the ancient Baldcypress trees buried within a 10-meter deposit of white 478 sand near Pee Dee, SC, which are dated at ca 40 ka. (Stahle, D.H., 2005, available on line at 479 http://www.uark.edu/misc/dendro/subfossil.pdf). Stahle, et al, make an interesting observation: 480 The recovery of well preserved baldcypress logs from two separate deposits of late Pleistocene 481 age in South Carolina raises many interesting research questions. The most immediate 482 question concerns the genesis of the buried white sand layer and the many large subfossil 483 cypress logs it contains. Does the white sand unit represent a single depositional event or a 484 slow process of accumulation over centuries to millennia of time? 485 2) A sample of cypress extracted from the Canepatch Formation (considered to be deposited by a 486 higher energy mechanism) at Todd Pit in North Carolina, was C-14 dated at >45 kya. (Mabry, M, 487 2001). 488 3) Research addressing the mean sea level (MSL) history along the NC coast suggest that barrier island 489 deposits were created during the Marine Isotope Sequence (MIS) -3 high stand above the present-day 490 sea level, and - significantly - stratigraphically above the MIS -5 high-stand shoreline deposits 491 (Parham, et al., 2006, Mallinson, et al., 2008, Scott, T.E., 2010), which is in contradiction to MSL 492 sequences elsewhere across the globe. The Poquoson Member of the Tabb Formation (maximum 493 thickness of 4.5 m in southeastern Virginia) has been OSL dated at 39.6±6.6 ka and 44.4±5.2 ka, and 494 nearly identical dates of 39–47 ka for the Wachapreague Formation (Eastern Shore) have been 24 495 reported. (Scott, et al., 2005). Further south, a thick sheet of hummocky, coarse-grained fine sand at 496 Broad Reach, NC, was OSL dated at 42.5±3.72. This deposit is problematic in that its coarse-skewed 497 morphology is not usually associated eolian deposits, but the lack of fossil material, lack of heavy 498 mineral laminations, and lack of coarse-grained material, combined with a high degree of sorting point 499 to eolian as the only viable alternative considered by the workers (Mallinson, et al., 2008). While other 500 workers invoke complex glacioisotatic regimens across the southeastern US coastline to address such 501 challenges, the hypothesis proposes a 10-meter ejecta blanket deposit across the continental shelf as an 502 alternative mechanism. 503 4) An analysis of the sea levels during the most recent Wisconsinan Ice age suggest that a 504 strengthening of Mississippi River outflow at 39 ka and an increase in sea level seen in four 505 independent measurement methodologies occurred at a time of decreasing temperatures in the 506 Northern Hemisphere. (Siddall, et al., 2008) 507 5) An examination of oriented Nebraska basins (Kuzila, M.S., 1994) has shown that late Wisconsinan 508 loess deposits dated ca 27 ka are draped evenly over hundreds of antecedent basin structures, 509 smoothing the basins’ sharp rim relief, however not affecting their oval planform. Onset of similar 510 loess deposition over an antecedent basin at Bignell Table, NE has been dated ca 39 ka. These results 511 suggest the structural basins were deposited prior to 39 ka. 512 6) A review of glacial outflows after ~20 kya has show that the “Saginaw Lobe” had vacated the 513 southern area of Michigan earlier than previously assumed, while the Michigan, Huron and Erie lobes 514 continued their advance into the area (Brown, et al., 2006). 515 7) An expected outcome of a significant oblique impact would be the initiation of a geomagnetic 516 excursion event (Muller, R.A., 2002) where the magnetic pole of the earth either wanders or flips, 25 517 usually accompanied by a weakening of the overall geomagnetic intensity. Perhaps the strongest and 518 most enigmatic excursion in the last 790,000 years (which was the age of the last full reversal) is the 519 much-studied, intense, yet short-lived Laschamp event, dated at 40.5 kya (Guilloua, et al., 2004). 5 Conclusions 520 521 We have presented a concise and necessarily brief overview of an extensive hypothesis, which holds 522 that an oblique cosmic impact into the Wisconsinan ice sheet, ca 40.5 ka, ballistically spread a blanket 523 of distal ejecta across North America along a broad annulus. We propose that shallow basins were 524 created during the energetic deflation of steam inclusions in those ejecta. Those paleobasin foundations 525 have persisted over the intervening millennia as “Carolina bays”, “Rainwater Basins”, “Maryland 526 Basins”, etc, in spite of being overlain with loess and subjected to reworking by water and wind 527 erosion. 528 To test the hypothesis, an analytical model was engineered based on several fundamental 529 considerations of ejecta movement around a planetary-scale rotating sphere that hosts a dense 530 atmospheric envelope. The model has been shown to successfully predict trajectories and emplacement 531 orientations of the ejecta blanket and the surficial bays assuming only the source impact location and 532 bay locations on the sphere. While we demonstrate the accuracy of the model using constants for all 533 other parameters, variable sensitivity testing has shown that satisfactory predictions can be obtained by 534 perturbing the two physically relevant parameters (ejecta average and terminal velocities) over a 535 realistic range. The model can be inverted to identify a causal impact crater location using a 536 triangulation network. We also note that the distribution of bays is highly symmetrical around the 537 proposed impact’s azimuth. 26 538 The authors maintain that the correlations presented here demonstrate the existence of a unique 539 geospatial relationship between all known Carolina bays and the Saginaw region, and can be seen as 540 validation of the model’s algorithm and lending support for the distal ejecta blanket hypothesis 541 presented here. We encourage independent testing of our model using the on-line calculator discussed 542 here, and are open to collaborative efforts with other workers. It is our hope that the presented 543 argument will add a new perspective to the geomorphologic nature of the Carolina bays and 544 Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, thus warrant future research and investigation. 6 References 545 546 Bralower, Timothy, L. Eccles, J. Kutz, T. Yancey, J Schueth, M. Arthur and David Bice, 2010, Grain 547 size of Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary sediments from Chicxulub to the open ocean: Implications 548 for interpretation of the mass extinction event, Geology 2010;38;199-202, doi: 10.1130/G30513.1 549 Brown, S. E., et al., 2006, New regional correlation of glacial events and processes in the interlobate 550 area of southern Michigan and northern Indiana after the last glacial maximum, Geological Society 551 of America Abstracts with Programs, v. 38, no. 4, p. 58. 552 Clayton, Lee, J. Attig, N. Ham, M. Johnson, C. Jennings, K. Syverson, 2008, Ice-walled-lake plains: 553 Implications for the origin of hummocky glacial topography in middle North America, 554 Geomorphology 97, pp 237–248, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.02.045 555 556 Daniels, R.B., and E.E. Gamble, 1970, The Goldsboro Ridge, an Enigma, Southeastern Geology vol.12 1970) pp151-158. 27 557 Eyton, J.R. and Parkhurst, J.I., 1975, A Re-evaluation of the Extra-terrestrial Origin of the Carolina 558 Bays, Occasional Publication, Dept. of Geography Paper No. 9, University of Illinois at Urbana– 559 Champaign, p 45. 560 Guilloua, Herve´, Brad S. Singer, Carlo Laj, Catherine Kissel,Ste´phane Scaillet, Brian R. Jicha, 2004, 561 On the age of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 227, 562 pp331– 343, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2004.09.018 563 Grant, J.A., Brooks, M.J., and Taylor, B.E., 1998, New constraints on the evolution of Carolina Bays 564 from ground-penetrating radar: Geomorphology, v. 22, p. 325–345, doi: 10.1016/S0169- 565 555X(97)00074-3. 566 567 Goldin,Tamara, 2009, Atmospheric interactions during global deposition of Chicxulub impact ejecta, , Ph.D Dissertation, The University Of Arizona, 2008, 266 pp 568 Harrington, J, I. de Pater, S. H. Brecht, D. Deming, V. Meadows, K. Zahnle and P. Nicholson, 2003, 569 Lessons learned from Shoemaker-Levy 9 about Jupiter and Planetary Impacts, Chapter 8, in the book 570 "Jupiter", Cambridge University Press, (ed. F. Bagenal, T. Dowling, & W. McKinnon), p. 159. 571 Herrick R.R. and K. Hessen, 2003, The Impact Angles Of Different Crater Forms On Mars, Lunar and 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 Planetary Science XXXIV, pp 2122.pdf. Ivester, A.H., Brooks, M.J., and Taylor, B.E., 2007, Sedimentology and ages of Carolina Bay sand rims: Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, v. 39, no. 2, p. 5. Jessup, K.L., et al., 2000, Ballistic Reconstruction of HST Observations of Ejecta Motion Following Shoemaker–Levy 9 Impacts into Jupiter, Icarus, 146, 19. doi:10.1006/icar.2000.6397 Johnson, D. W., 1942 , Columba Geomorphic Studies Volume IV, New York: Columbia University Press. 28 579 580 581 Kuzila, M.S., 1994, Inherited Morphologies Of Two Large Basins In Clay County, Nebraska, Great Plains Research 4, February 1994): p 51-63. Mabry, Michele Y. And Thayer, Paul A., Sedimentology Of Pleistocene Waccamaw And Canepatch 582 Formations, Todd Pit, Brunswick County, NC, Southeastern Section - 50th Annual Meeting (April 583 5-6, 2001) 584 Mallinson, David, S. Mahan, C. Moore, 2008, High Resolution Shallow Geologic Characterization Of 585 A Late Pleistocene Eolian Environment Using Ground Penetrating Radar And Optically 586 Stimulated Luminescence Techniques: North Carolina, USA, Southeastern Geology, V. 45, No.3, 587 April 2008, p. 161-177 588 589 590 Muller, R. A., 2002, Avalanches at the core-mantle boundary, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, NO. 19, 1935, doi:10.1029/2002GL015938, 2002 Parham, Peter R., et al, 20085, Quaternary depositional patterns and sea-level fluctuations, 591 northeastern North Carolina, Quaternary Research, Volume 67, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 83- 592 99 doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.003 593 Post, Sidney H., P. Lee Phillips, and Nathan E. Phillippi, 2009, Using Lidar To Survey The 594 Distribution Of Carolina Bays In Robeson County, North Carolina, Program with Abstract, GSA 595 Southeastern Section - 58th Annual Meeting (12-13 March 2009) 596 597 598 Prouty, W. F., 1952, Carolina Bays and their Origin, Geological Society of America Bulletin vol. 63, no. 2, pp. 167–224. Rieck, R.L. and H. A. Winters, 1982, Characteristics of a Glacially Buried Cuesta in Southeast 599 Michigan, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 72, No. 4 Dec., 1982), pp. 600 482-494. 29 601 Schultz, P.H., Impact Cratering In Soft Sediment Layers, 2007, Workshop on Impact Cratering II 602 Schulte,P.H., et al , 2010, The Chicxulub Asteroid Impact and Mass Extinction at the Cretaceous- 603 Paleogene Boundary, Science, 5 March 2010: Vol. 327. no. 5970, pp. 1214 – 1218, DOI: 604 10.1126/science.1177265 605 Schultz, P. H. and A. M. Stickle, 2009, Lost Impact, AGU Fall Meeting 2009, Presentation ID# 606 PP33B-04. 607 Scott, Timothy W., Donald J.P. Swift, G. Richard Whittecar, George A. Brook, Glacioisostatic 608 influences on Virginia's late Pleistocene coastal plain deposits, Geomorphology, Volume 116, Issues 1- 609 2, 15 March 2010, Pages 175-188, ISSN 0169-555X, DOI: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.10.017. 610 Siddall, M., E. J. Rohling, W. G. Thompson, and C. Waelbroeck, 2008, Marine isotope stage 3 sealevel 611 fluctuations: Data synthesis and new outlook, Rev. Geophys., 46, RG4003, 612 doi:10.1029/2007RG000226. 613 Zanner, C. W., and M. S. Kuzila, 2001, Nebraska’s Carolina bays. Geological Society of America 614 Abstracts with Programs, v. 33, no. 6, pp 438. 615 7 Figures and Attachments 616 Figure 1 - Carolina Bays, Robeson County, North Carolina, USA 617 The color shading of this LiDAR image demonstrates one of the most commonly overlooked 618 characteristics of the bays: they were formed continuously across the pre-existing terrain, and the 619 planforms exhibit no differential based on emplacement elevation. The above view covers 680 km2, 30 620 and includes elevations from 16 m (lower right) to 76 m (upper left). HSV-shader DEM derived from 621 USGS National Elevation Database 1/9 arc-sec, processed in Global Mapper V11. 622 Figure 2– Physical Fractal Distribution of Bubbles in Foam 623 This photograph presents the physical fractal distribution of sizes and locations across field of bubbles. 624 The photo was edited to create the elongation we propose to be a deposition artifact of lateral 625 momentum in the ejecta wave. 626 Figure 3– Cross-section View of Crater 627 An oblique strike into a thick continental ice sheet over the proposed Saginaw region would first excise 628 1 to 2 km of ice before penetrating into terrestrial sedimentary layers. Local ejecta were deposited on 629 the ice sheet, allowing for eventual distribution as common glacial till. 630 Figure 4 – Saginaw Crater Symmetry 631 Lower Michigan DEM with overlay of proposed Saginaw crater extent. 632 Figure 5 – Identifying Carolina bay Orientations 633 Clay County, NE area color ramp LiDAR map using USGS-NED 1/3 arc-sec datum prepared. Shown 634 are numerous paleobasins similar to eastern Carolina bays. The arrow overlay shown allows for 635 assigning an arrival bearing, as interpreted by the user. 636 Figure 6 – Bearing Prediction Trigonometry 637 Uses metrics of Wagram, NC. At time of atmospheric re-entry into a 165-km/hr W➔E “tail wind” the 638 ejecta’s trajectory will be altered. In the prediction case the velocity difference was additive to the 639 W➔E velocity, and thus the model adds the value in; the inversion process (used to drive the 31 640 triangulation network) subtracts the value out. Since the N➔S velocity is constant, the final alignment 641 rotates accordingly. While the ejecta velocity has a vertical component, only ground-plane vectors are 642 considered. 643 Figure 7 – Distribution of Carolina Bays Around Saginaw Crater 644 A) Demonstrates geospatial symmetry around the proposed Saginaw crater. Glacial ice prohibits bay 645 formations to the north. Areas along the impactor’s arrival azimuth were in the “blow-out” zone, where 646 we expect less ejecta and the terrain is rough. B) Vertical axis displays distance in km. Horizontal axis 647 displays state names of the bay fields, ordered clockwise from NJ. 648 Figure 8- Correlation of Predicted Bay Orientations to Measured 649 Plots of the model’s predicted arrival bearing for each field, assuming its components had been ejected 650 from the crater’s centroid (green line), against the measured orientation at that field (blue line). The 651 purple and red lines represent bearing predictions for ejecta lofted from the northeast and southwest 652 ramparts of the crater, and are effectively control bounds for the orientations expected from a 653 geographically expansive crater. Vertical axis displays the arrival bearing in degrees. Horizontal axis 654 displays the state names of the bay fields, ordered clockwise from New Jersey. 655 Figure 9 – Sensitivity Graph of Model Variables 656 Heuristic testing across possible variable values was performed to identify satisfactory solutions to bay 657 alignments using the model. We have defaulted the on-line Bearing Calculator based on parameters 658 yielding an average ground-based velocity vector of 3 km/sec. 659 Figure 10– Comparison of Parabolic Dunes and Carolina bays 32 660 In several locations we have identified Carolina bay ovoid planforms being overridden by true 661 parabolic dune systems. The LiDAR image demonstrates the significant differences between the two 662 planforms, suggesting that entirely different mechanisms are responsible. 663 Supplemental File A: Field Listing with loft distance in km and coordinates. 664 Supplemental File B: Large-format version of the prediction correlation chart, showing ~ 50% of 665 the individual field names. 666 Supplemental File C: KMZ file containing Index for Carolina bay Fields and Saginaw Crater 667 668 http://cintos.org/ge/SaginawKML/WebPlugIn_Summary.kmz Supplemental File D: Analytical Model Java Code. Plain-text listing of model’s code. 33