ver. 28 Oct 15 Topics in Game Theory PhD reading course , Fall 2015 Teachers: Amrish Patel & Johan Stennek Dates: Second period fall 2015: 3rd November 2015 - 17th January 2016 Objectives: 1. Cover topics in game theory beyond compulsory graduate micro courses 2. Learn to read abstract and applied theory papers 3. Develop experience in modelling and presenting theory Pre-course Micro II recap quiz/discussion: We’ll have a roundtable to refresh memory of game theory. Please read Micro II material and/or textbooks e.g. Osborne and Rubinstein or Fudenberg and Tirole. Assessment: Active participation in presentations (50%) and writing a research paper (50%) For each topic: 1. Read compulsory papers (abstract and applied) and work together to give a presentation (you may also find/read other relevant sources) 2. Present as if teaching. Focus on the main messages and results, not the proofs. Provide good examples and intuitions. Explain why/how the concept was used in the applied paper and whether it was reasonable etc. 3. If possible write your own simple “toy-models” to illustrate ideas 4. If you come up with ideas for interesting extensions or applications, do a quick literature review and present the research idea to the group. Research Paper: Write a research paper with a theoretical model on a topic of your choice. Topic must be approved by Amrish and Johan who will provide supervision. Generic questions to bear in mind: Does your paper answer a good question? What is your marginal contribution relative to existing literature? Does your model capture key aspects of your question? Is the analysis internally consistent? How does it relate to other models on the topic? Can you explain the intuition behind your results? Is your work “worth listening to”? You will present your work as a term paper and a seminar at a date to be agreed. Varian (1997) “How to Build an Economic Model in Your Spare Time” (online) Thomson (2011) “A Guide for the Young Economist” (book) 1 Timetable All meetings take place in E6 seminar room. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Week 45 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 51 2 2 Date Time Topic Monday 2nd Nov 13:00-16:00 Revision Quiz Thursday 5th Nov 12:00-15:00 Further Classical Equilibria Monday 9th Nov 13:00-16:00 Bayesian Games th Monday 16 Nov 13:00-16:00 Incomplete Contracts th Monday 23 Nov 13:00-16:00 Bargaining and Coalitions Wednesday 2nd Dec 12:00-15:00 Link and Coalition Formation Wednesday 9th Dec 13:00-16:00 Psychological Games th Monday 14 Dec 13:00-16:00 Consumer search Thursday 17th Dec 12:00-15:00 Learning and Rationality Tuesday 12th Jan 12:00-15:00 Evolutionary Games th Thursday 14 Jan 12:00-15:00 Student’s Choice Later in Spring Paper presentations 2 2. Further Classical Equilibria We study a generalisation of NE, Correlated Equilibrium, and a refinement of NE, Trembling-Hand Perfect Equilibrium. Compulsory Correlated Equilibrium Aumann, R. J. (1974) “Subjectivity and correlation in randomized strategies” Journal of Mathematical Economics 1: 67-96. Aumann, R. J. (1987) “Correlated equilibrium as an expression of Bayesian Rationality” Econometrica 55(1): 1-18. Trembling Hand Perfect Equilibrium Selten, B. (1975) “Reexamination of the perfectness concept for equilibrium points in extensive games” International Journal of Game Theory 4(1): 25-55. Anderhub, V. et al (2003) “Long-term work contracts versus sequential spot markets: Experimental evidence on firm-specific investment” Labour Economics 10(4): 407-425. Further Reading Brandenburger, A. (1992) “Knowledge and Equilibrium in Games” Journal of Economic Perspectives 6(4): 83-101. Both solution concepts will be covered in most game theory textbooks. 3 3. Bayesian Games We study two applied Bayesian games involving Cheap Talk and Signalling, while consulting Bayesian solution concepts where relevant. Compulsory Crawford, V. P. and Sobel, J. (1982) “Strategic information transmission” Econometrica 50(6): 1431-1451. Benabou, R. and Tirole, J. (2006) “Incentives and Prosocial Behavior” American Economic Review 96(5): 1652-1678. Supplementary Reading Kreps, D. M. and Wilson, R. (1982) “Sequential equilibrium” Econometrica 50(4): 863-894. Fudenberg, D. and Tirole, J. (1991) “Perfect Bayesian equilibrium and sequential equilibrium” Journal of Economic Theory 53: 236-260. Cho, I.-K. and Kreps, D. M. (1987) “Signaling games and stable equilibria” Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(2): 179-221. Most game theory texts will cover Bayesian solution concepts. 4 4. Theory of Incomplete Contracts Split among yourselves the reading of Grossman & Hart and Hart, Shleifer and Vishny. This area is also covered in the text-book by Bolton. You may find a broader background in Williamson. Compulsory Grossman, Sanford J., and Oliver D. Hart. (1986). The costs and benefits of ownership: A theory of vertical and lateral integration. Journal of Political Economy 94(4): 691-719. Hart, O., Shleifer, A. and Vishny, R.W. (1997) “The proper scope of government: Theory and application to prisons” Quarterly Journal of Economics 112(4): 11271161. Supplementary Reading Williamson, Oliver. (1985), The Economic Institutions of Capitalism, New York: Free Press. Botlton, Patrick, and Matthias Dewatripont (2005). Contract Theory. MIT Press. 5 5. Multi-Person Bargaining and Coalition Formation Read Horn & Wolinsky + at least one additional paper of your choice. Compulsory Horn, Henrik and Asher Wolinsky. (1988). "Worker Substitutability and Patterns of Unionisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 484-97, June. More on interdependent bilateral bargaining Björnerstedt, Jonas and Johan Stennek (2007). “Bilateral Oligopoly.” International Journal of Industrial Organization, 25(2007) 884–907. Think about further applications to perhaps bilateral trade agreement, supply chains. More on coalition formation (by means of bargaining) Kamien, Morton I. and Israel Zang (1990). “The Limits of Monopolization through Acquisition.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105, 465–499. Kamien, Morton I. and Israel Zang (1993). “Monopolization by Sequential Acquisition.” Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, 9, 205–229. Fridolfsson, Sven-Olof and Johan Stennek (2005). “Why Mergers Reduce Profits, and Raise Share Prices – A Theory of Preemptive Mergers.” Journal of the European Economic Association, September 2005, 3(5): 1083-1104. Think about further application to e.g. monetary unions, environmental agreements. 6 6. Link Formation All read all compulsory papers. Split among yourselves the presentation of Goyal & Joshi (2006) and Goyal, Moraga-González & Konovalov (2008). Compulsory Goyal, Sanjee and Sumit Joshi. (2006). Unequal connections. International Journal of Game Theory, October 2006, Volume 34, Issue 3, pp 319-349. Goyal, Sanjee, José Luis Moraga-González & Alexander Konovalov, 2008. "Hybrid R&D," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1309-1338, December. Further Reading Jackson, M. O. and Wolinsky, A. (1996) “A strategic model of social and economic networks” Journal of Economic Theory 71: 44-74. Jackson, M. O. (2010) “Social and Economic Networks” Princeton University Press. Zenou, Y. (2013) “Networks in Economics” in International Encyclopaedia of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Elsevier. Jackson, M. O. and Zenou, Y. (2014) “Games on Networks” in Handbook of Game Theory vol. 4, Young, P. and Zamir, S. Eds. 7 7. Psychological Game Theory An applied and general paper on games where payoffs depend on beliefs and Martin’s lecture on various aspects of psychological game theory. Compulsory Geanakopolos, J., Pearce, D. and Stacchetti, E. (1989) “Psychological games and sequential rationality” Games and Economic Behavior 1(1): 60-79. Rabin, M. (1993) “Incorporating fairness into game theory and economics” American Economic Review 83(5): 1281-1302. Martin’s lecture on Psychological Games Dufwenberg, M. and Kirchsteiger, G. (2004) “A theory of sequential reciprocity” Games and Economic Behavior 47: 268-298. Dufwenberg, M. and Battigalli, P. (2007) “Guilt in games” American Economic Review 97(2): 170-176. Dufwenberg, M. and Battigalli, P. (2009) “Dynamic psychological games” Journal of Economic Theory 144: 1-35. 8 8. Consumer Search Compulsory TBA. Martin’s lecture on Psychological Games TBA. 9 9. Learning and Rationality We revisit iterated dominance in more detail and consider a non-equilibrium approach, level-k thinking (Martin’s lecture), study a behavioural game theoretic solution concept, Cursed Equilibrium, and a learning model. Recent review papers on behavioural game theory are recommended for holiday reading. Compulsory Eyster, E. and Rabin, M. (2005) “Cursed equilibrium” Econometrica 73(5): 1623-1672. A paper on learning: e.g. Fudenberg and Levine? Martin’s lecture on Dominance/Rationalizability/Level-k Dufwenberg, M. and Stegeman, D. (2002) “Existence and uniqueness of maximal reductions under iterated strict dominance” Econometrica 70(5): 2007-2023. Crawford, V. (2003) “Lying for strategic advantage: Rational and boundedly rational misrepresentation of intentions” American Economic Review 93: 133-149. Crawford, V. and Iriberri, N. (2007) “Fatal attraction: Salience, Naivete and Sophistication in Experimental “Hide and Seek Games”” American Economic Review 97: 1731-1750. Christmas reading: Forum on the role of bounded rationality versus behavioural optimisation in economic models Harstad, R. M. and Selten, R. (2013) “Bounded-rationality models: Tasks to become intellectually competitive” Journal of Economic Literature 51(2): 496-511. Crawford, V. (2013) “Boundedly rational versus optimization-based models of strategic thinking and learning in games” Journal of Economic Literature 51(2): 512-527. Rabin, M. (2013) “Incorporating limited rationality into economics” Journal of Economic Literature 51(2): 528-543. Further reading: Camerer, C. (2003) Behavioral Game Theory: Experiments in Strategic Interaction. Princeton University Press. Crawford, V., Costa-Gomes, M. A. and Ibiberri, N. (2013) “Structural models of nonequilibrium strategic thinking: Theory, evidence and applications” Journal of Economic Perspectives 51(1): 5-62. 10 10. Evolutionary games All read Weibull chapters 2 (focus on cheap talk) and 3 (just to get the basic idea). Split among yourselves the reading of Vega-Redondo and Rayo et al. In all cases, focus more on motivation and ideas and less on technicalities. If you read Vega-Redondo, notice that the intuition is better explained in Schaffer (which lacks in rigor). A few differences between the papers are worth noting: Vega-Redondo and Schaffer consider selection in a game environment while Rayo et al consider selection in a decision environment. The first two employ explicit evolutionary solution concepts while the latter simply uses optimization techniques. The first two consider selection directly on behavior, while the latter consider indirect evolution (evolution on decision-making procedures – in this case utility functions) which in turn select behavior). Weibul, Jörgen (1995). Evolutionary Game Theory, MIT Press. Rayo, L., & Becker, G. S. (2007). Evolutionary efficiency and happiness. Journal of Political Economy, 115(2), 302–337. Vega-Redondo, F. (1997). The evolution of Walrasian behavior. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 65(2), 375–384. Schaffer, M. E. (1989). Are profit-maximisers the best survivors?: A Darwinian model of economic natural selection. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 12(1), 29–45. 11 11. Student’s Choice Each student is free to select a paper according to personal interests and to present it in 15 minutes. The only restriction is that the paper should either be based on other solution concepts than Nash or Subgame perfection or contain some more fundamental contribution. An alternative is to present a sketch of an own model. 12