Hazards SEES Type 2: Accurately Predicting and Effectively Communicating
Flood Inundation Impacts in South Asia: A Framework for Successful
Implementation of Scientific and Technical Modeling Information
Management Plan
a) Senior Personnel
PI: Michaels, Sarah. Department of Political Science, University of Nebraska-Lincoln & University of
Nebraska Public Policy Center
Co-PI: Bovaird, James. University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Educational Psychology,
Quantitative, Qualitative, & Psychometric Methods, & Statistics & Research Methodology Unit
Co-PI: Brakenridge, G. Robert. Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of Colorado
Co-PI: Hopson, Thomas. National Center for Atmospheric Research
Co-PI: PytlikZillig, Lisa. University of Nebraska Public Policy Center
Faculty Associate: Kettner, Albert. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado
Faculty Associate: Tomkins, Alan. University of Nebraska Public Policy Center
b) Coordination of Group Effort
Dr. Michaels, will guide the substantive research. She completed her doctorate at the University of
Colorado and has maintained ties to CU and has been a visiting scientist at NCAR in 2005, 2011, and
2012 and has been awarded a Faculty Fellowship in the Advanced Study Program (ASP) of NCAR for
academic year 2013-2014. Dr. Michaels will be assisted administratively by Dr. Tomkins, who will
oversee the coordination of the group. We will have full project team meetings twice a month and more
frequently as needed, such as in preparing for workshops via Skype or conference call that will include all
seven researchers, the two postdoctoral fellows, and graduate/undergraduate students working on the
project. There will be more frequent sub-team meetings as appropriate.
c) Integration of Disciplinary Efforts
The disciplinary efforts will be integrated as the team works together to address the shared goal of our
endeavor: to reduce human suffering through providing timely and valuable flood forecast information
and enabling communities and individuals to respond as constructively as is feasible to the threat of
catastrophic floods. Our linked aims require we integrate our complementary expertise and coordinate our
research endeavors to achieve our goal. For example, the workshops we propose serve both as an
opportunity for stakeholders to engage with the scientists and engineers generating the flood forecasts to
develop more user-friendly products and processes and to interact with trust scholars to inform the
dynamics necessary for successful uptake of flood forecasts.
We will build on the rich track records of senior personnel’s active engagement in interdisciplinary
research and professional experiences, as revealed in the biosketches. For example, a signature feature of
PI Michaels’ research is its emphasis on strengthening the links between science-based information and
natural resources management policy. The Overseas Development Institute (ODI), London, England, is
applying her work on strategies for disciplinary boundary spanners operating between science and policy
to advance knowledge brokering efforts in developing countries. Closer to home, with support from an
Interdisciplinary Seed Grant from the UNL College of Arts and Sciences, Dr. Michaels worked with an
ecological modeler and theoretical mathematician to facilitate a series of nine seminars involving ten
academic departments (agricultural economics, computer science, ecological and evolutionary biology,
mathematics, natural resources, physics, political science, psychology, sociology, and statistics) to learn
how scholars in different disciplines think about and employ the concepts of risk, uncertainty and critical
thresholds in their research. Another example is Faculty Associate Tomkins (a social psychologist and
lawyer by training, and policy/public administration in much of his research with the Public Policy
Center): He has been the lead or amongst the leadership in numerous interdisciplinary efforts funded by
NSF (SES-1228559, SaTC-1228937, SES-1061635, SBE-0965465, DGE-0903469, and IIS-0535255), as
well as other agencies (NIH, NIJ). These projects have involved researchers from a variety of disciplines,
including biology, chemistry, computer science, ecology, educational psychology, engineering
mechanics, geography, geoscience, hydrology, political science, sociology, and virology. In addition, in
his recent work with the State Department, Dr. Tomkins worked in the food security area, thus ensuring
that he worked regularly with the types of NGOs and organizations like World Food Programme that are
critical to the project’s success. co-I Hopson developed a flood forecasting system under USAID Grant
USAID/OFDA AOT-A-00-00-00262-00 (2000–03) (PI Peter Webster) that provided Bangladesh with
operational forecasts of severe flooding at 1- to 10-day lead-times from 2003-2008. In 2009 these
technologies were transferred to South Asian partners for sustainable operations. He has also recently
conducted two World-Bank funded training workshops in India to engineers and scientists working on
long-lead river forecasting. Currently, he is providing the World Health Organization and African
National Health Agencies with humidity forecasts over the meningitis belt of Africa to inform meningitis
transmission models about optimal allocation of vaccine.
d) Collaborations and Partnerships
We view the organization of our undertaking as a set of nested and interconnected collaborative
partnerships (see figure below), beginning with the collaborative partnership which is our
interdisciplinary research team. The next scale of partnership involves our partners, including
organizations engaged in generating forecasts, such the flood forecasting division of the Pakistan
Meteorological Department (PMD) and non-governmental organizations, such as the Regional Integrated
Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) for Africa and Asia. These partners are currently engaged
with local residents in a manner that will allow the region at risk to capitalize on improved flood
forecasting. Thus, the next scale is the partnership of those who engage in our workshops, interviews and
surveys—including technical experts
(scientists and engineers), students
from area universities who are
studying related topics, decision
makers and policymakers, and
vulnerable area residents. As we
examine the role of trust at multiple
levels, our work is intended to reach
beyond our initial nested partnerships,
to create a dense network of expanded
connections among people attempting
to mitigate the flood threat across
different scales throughout the area.
e) Dissemination Plans
Through our partnerships with the World Bank, RIMES, CARE-Bangladesh, Indian National Institute of
Hydrology (INIH), and PMD (see Fig.), we will disseminate project results to practitioners, via interactive
engagements such as trainings and workshops, as well as via traditional, academic-conference
presentations and peer-review publications. In addition to sharing information with national and
subnational level participants, the World Bank and CARE, specific plans include dissemination of
developed technologies by Dr. Hopson into the operational long-lead forecast schemes of RIMES, the
Bangladesh Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, PMD, and INIH. As part of our quality assurance
assessments for NCAR, DFO and PPC consultancies, we will measure the impacts the flood forecasting
warning and dissemination systems via formal and informal evaluations with individuals using the flood
forecasting systems.
Timeline of Outcomes
Project Timeline & Project Activities (Fall 2013 – Summer 2016)
FA
Year 1
SP SU
Objective 1: Update Forecasts
Implement established CFAB model forecasts using multi-model
ensemble weather forecasts for Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Indus
Rivers
Increase the number of daily-updated River Watch river flow
measurement sites to 90 while receiving input from regional
specialists and our collaborators in locating these sites; and test
accuracy to available local ground station data
Implement new routing routine in CFAB model to overlap DFO
measurement sites with model grid points
Create real time data links, from DFO to NCAR, to enable their
planned discharge measurements assimilation task
Develop assimilation algorithm to update CFAB model flow
estimates with River Watch measurements
Automate all data ingest and data assimilation processes
Partial river forecast systems running operationally
Full river forecast systems running operationally
Objective 2: Transform forecasts into informative visualizations
Couple the flood discharge estimates, on a selected site and reach
basis, to the MODIS observed inundation, to produce online libraries
of measured or predicted discharge and matching floodplain
inundation maps
Establish real time data links between forecast model outputs and
the River Watch site displays, such that predicted discharge are
provided as well as the present discharge values.
Create graphical displays providing: 1) public access to both
predicted and present river discharge status of a relatively dense
network of measurement points, and 2) to estimated and forecasted
inundation maps.
Objective 3: Investigate Multilevel Model of Trust
Study 1: Conduct and analyze focus groups and interviews to FG
In
develop insider trust measures
Study 2: Test & refine insider trust measures via surveys and
S
analyses
Study 3: Conduct and analyze interviews and surveys of students to
Int
develop public trust measures
Study 4: Execute and analyze mixed-method longitudinal study
FG
Study 5: Conduct and analyze public surveys
Study 6: Carry out statistical modeling comparisons
Dissemination
Conduct workshops on current technologies and future
developments (W1) and operational management of full system
W1
(W2)
Install subsystems on partner institutions
Conferences and papers
NSF Reporting
Note: FG=Focus Groups, Int = Interviews, S = Surveys, W1 and W2 = Workshops 1 and 2
FA
Year 2
SP SU
FA
Year 3
SP SU
FA
Year 4
SP SU
S
S
S
S,FG
S
W2