UK study on risks associated with biomass fuel souring in North America
Draft, March 2015
Assessment of the risks associated with certain biomass fuel sourcing
scenarios: draft hand out and web site text
Introduction
Ricardo-AEA is working together with North America partners Applied Geosolutions (USA) and
Professor Tat Smith of the University of Toronto (Canada) on understanding the dynamics of potential
biomass supply for pellet production in North America. The work is exploring a range of biomass
sourcing scenarios in North America, with the aim of assessing the likelihood of these scenarios
occurring as a result of demand from the UK biomass electricity sector.
This work has been commissioned by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in
response to the results of a study produced in 2014 on the life cycle impacts of biomass electricity in
2020 (using the Biomass Emissions and Counterfactual Model, known as the “BEAC” study1). We seek
to collect evidence to enable us to assess the likelihood that UK generators might use pellets that
correspond to the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity scenarios identified by BEAC.
This is an important study, as it will provide an evidence database taking into account expert
knowledge from diverse stakeholders in the USA, Canada, and the UK in order inform UK bioenergy
policy.
Background
The BEAC study developed scenarios for assessing the greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of the use of
North American woody biomass for electricity generation in the UK. A report on the findings of this
study was published on the DECC web site in July 2014, together with the model used in the analysis.
This report and model can be found here.
The key findings regarding the GHG intensity of bioenergy use are summarised in Box 1. The types of
scenarios considered in BEAC are represented in Box 2. Box 3 provides the definitions of wood used
in the modelling. The intention of the work was to shed light on which scenarios for pellet production
are more or less satisfactory with respect to GHG intensity.
These findings are important because bioenergy is expected to make a significant contribution to the
UK’s targets for renewable energy and emissions reductions. The UK Bioenergy Strategy forecast the
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For details on this work see: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/life-cycle-impacts-of-biomasselectricity-in-2020
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https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications-and-updates/biomass-sustainability-dataset-2013-14
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UK study on risks associated with biomass fuel souring in North America
Draft, March 2015
expected use of biomass by UK generators at between 10-16 million metric tonnes by 2020. For
comparison, wood fuel use in 2013-14 was 5.7 million tonnes2. UK generators currently import a
significant proportion of their biomass fuel, a majority of which comes from North America and is
likely to continue to do so (around 3 million tonnes of biomass fuel was imported in 2013-14)3.
Box 1 Summary of findings for GHG intensity of bioenergy from the BEAC study
The BEAC is the first bioenergy model published by the UK Government to take changes in forest
carbon stocks into account and is an important step in refining our understanding of how we might
bring the preservation of land carbon stocks into our work on sustainability. The model finds that
biomass, when sourced responsibly, can be used in a low carbon and sustainable way.
BEAC found that there is a large variability in the results of the published scientific literature
depending on methodological choices, that the outcomes of GHG assessment of forest bioenergy
are very sensitive to the counterfactual scenario for land use; and that counterfactual scenarios
need to be developed carefully and robustly, and assumptions must be transparent. While there is
something of a consensus on high and low risk scenarios, the same biomass feedstocks can be used
in both scenarios.
BEAC found that there are scenarios where it would be possible to use North American feedstocks
in 2020 that result in electricity with GHG intensities lower than 200 kg CO2e/MWh, when fully
accounting for changes in land carbon stock changes. However, there are other bioenergy scenarios
that could lead to high GHG intensities (e.g. greater than electricity from coal, when analysed over
40 or 100 years) but would be found to have GHG intensities less than 200 kg CO2e/MWh by the
Renewable Energy Directive LCA methodology.
Box 2 BEAC scenarios
Scenarios were constructed in BEAC to represent North American woody feedstocks that are
currently used for the production of pellets (e.g. pellets from saw-mill residues, dead trees from
natural disturbances, and pulpwood), as well as potential future scenarios which might come to
pass if the demand for biomass were to increase significantly in the future (e.g. pellets from wood
derived from new, dedicated plantations).
The scenarios are grouped by the wood that is turned into pellets as follows:
 Forest residues without an alternative market;
 Additional roundwood harvest from naturally-regenerated timberland;
 Roundwood (e.g. pulpwood) from existing plantations;
 Wood for bioenergy displacing non-bioenergy uses, causing additional wood to be
imported;
 Additional wood harvest from establishing new plantations (energy crops and intensivelymanaged pine) on naturally-regenerated timberland in South USA;
 Additional wood harvest from establishing new plantations (energy crops and intensivelymanaged pine) on abandoned agricultural land.
Counterfactuals have been selected for each of these.
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www.ofgem.gov.uk/ofgem-publications/93414/roannualreport2013-14.pdf
www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications-and-updates/biomass-sustainability-dataset-2013-14
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UK study on risks associated with biomass fuel souring in North America
Draft, March 2015
Aims and Objectives
Our study will provide an evidence base to help understand the likelihood of the scenarios that result
from pellet demand that the BEAC study defined as “potentially not satisfactory” with respect to
lifecycle GHG emissions. These include:
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Scenarios 4-7: Forest residues that would otherwise have been left in the forest being used in
pellet production
Scenarios 10-13: Increased harvest of naturally regenerated forests
Scenario 14: Change in the use of wood grown in intensively managed pine plantations from
non-bioenergy to bioenergy uses
Scenarios 19-21: Displacement of non-bioenergy wood uses i.e. US pulpwood going to the UK
instead of the US paper industry
Scenario 22: Development of new plantations on naturally regenerated timberland in South
USA
Scenario 26: New plantations on abandoned agricultural land; additional wood from the
conversion of abandoned agricultural land that was previously ploughed to a short rotation
coppice (SRC) hardwood plantation
In addition we will be seeking information on scenarios similar to these but not included in the BEAC
study:
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The possibility to increase harvest rate of plantation studies for the supply of wood for pellets
The likelihood of bringing unmanaged forests into production for supply of wood for pellets
Further detail on these scenarios and the counterfactuals they are compared with is provided here.
Methodology
We will use a number of sources of information to build a database of evidence that can be used by
DECC to understand the sustainability implications of its policies. Information will be gathered
through:
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A literature search for evidence on the source of wood for pellets in North America and the
impact of increased demand for pellets
A survey of key players or stakeholders in the North American pellet production-use chain to
investigate current practice, potential response to demand and projected future changes to
these by 2030
A model of the impact of demand on biomass supply in the US South (the Sub-Regional Timber
Supply or SRTS model).
The evidence data base will then be used to build a tool for DECC’s use to show the likelihood of high
GHG intensity scenarios happening.
Survey of key stakeholders
The aim of the survey is to obtain information on how the North American forestry and forest products
industries might respond to increased demand for pellets from UK generators. Our aim is to get a wide
sample of the views, understanding and expertise from a diversity of stakeholders who are involved
in or knowledgeable about this supply.
Stakeholders will be drawn from the following groups:
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Forestland and plantation owners,
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UK study on risks associated with biomass fuel souring in North America
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Draft, March 2015
Forest managers and forest products industry
Wood pellet producers and users
Trade organisations
Government policy makers
Academics
Non-governmental organisations
The questions in the survey have been carefully developed in order to enable us to understand the
likelihood of the scenarios. This is important because the project is not only about gathering evidence
on whether or not these scenarios would or would not happen, but also acquiring reliable evidence
for this. The questions have been carefully formulated to inform our specific analysis, allowing
quantitative responses where possible, but we have also allowed for additional qualitative comments
where the stakeholders think this is important.
The survey requests a range of information about:
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The organization responding to the survey and the nature of its expertise and engagement in
the industry
Current prices and market conditions
Forest policies, laws and regulations that influence (regulate, control?) forest management
and markets
Future prices and market conditions
Your views on supply and demand in the bioenergy and non-bioenergy market
The likelihood of the scenario, including questions related to key variables related to the
scenarios
Process of consultation
Each potential stakeholder will receive a letter inviting them to participate in the survey. They will be
asked to respond to indicate if they are willing to participate. If they cannot participate, they will have
the opportunity to provide a reason why they do not wish to participate and to provide further
information they would like us to consider.
Those who have agreed to participate will then be provided with a link to the web based survey,
together with an access code. This survey will be password protected and your answers will be treated
confidentially.
We may contact you after the survey if you have provided any outlying answers, to ensure that we
understand the reason for these.
The results to the survey will be included in an anonymised database that will be passed to the UK
Department of Energy and Climate Change. De-attributed datasets on the variables relevant to each
scenario will be published.
If you have further questions regarding this process please contact one of our key contacts:
UK: Pat Howes at Ricardo-AEA in the UK on: +44 (0)1235 753 254 or email: pat.howes@ricardoaea.com
Canada: Professor Tat Smith: +1-416-978-4638 or email: tat.smith@utoronto.ca
USA: Dr Jennifer C Jenkins: +1 240-630-4870 or e-mail: jjenkins@appliedgeosolutions.com
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UK study on risks associated with biomass fuel souring in North America
Draft, March 2015
Box 3 Categories of wood supply considered in the BEAC study
BEAC considers the following grades of hard wood and softwood supply from naturally regenerated
forests, plantations (including intensive plantations) and energy crop plantations:
Round wood
 Saw logs from logs with a diameter greater than 5-8 inches (0.13-0.2m)
 Chip-n-saw (US term) saw logs and large pulpwood with minimum diameters of 4 - 6 inches
(0.10 - 0.15 m) and maximum diameters of 9 - 16 inches (0.23 -0.41 m)
 Pulpwood: roundwood which has a small end diameter typically less than a saw log (5 – 8
inches), but greater than 2.5 inches (0.064 m) and low quality roundwood with dimensions
of saw logs and chip-n-saw, that can’t be used for sawn-timber
Forest residues
 Fine forest residues: Tree tops, limbs, non-merchantable harvested trees and tree
components, and downed trees which are left over from traditional timber harvesting.
Includes pre-commercial thinnings (described below). Diameter < 4 inches (0.1 m)
 Coarse forest residues: Tree tops, limbs, non-merchantable trees and tree components, and
downed trees which are left over from traditional timber harvesting. Includes precommercial thinnings (described below). Diameter > 4inches (0.1 m)
Thinnings
 Commercial thinnings: Trees removed during thinning operations, the purpose of which is
to reduce the density of trees in a stand of forest, and enhance diameter growth and
volume of the residual stand. Commercial thinnings include roundwood which is of
sufficient size and quality to have a commercial value
 Pre-commercial thinnings: Trees removed during thinning operations, the purpose of which
is to reduce stand density and enhance diameter growth and volume of the residual stand.
Pre-commercial thinnings are of insufficient size and quality to have a commercial value.
Saw mill residues
 Fine residues: Saw dust, wood flour, shavings and bark, produced as by-products of primary
and secondary processing mills
 Coarse, chippable residues: Saw-mill slabs and edgings, produced as by-products of primary
and secondary processing mill
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