Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European
land- and water-based sectors
Supplementary material
P.A. Harrison1,*, R. Dunford1, C. Savin2, M.D.A. Rounsevell3, I.P. Holman4,
A.S. Kebede5 and B. Stuch6
*Corresponding author: E-mail: Paula.Harrison@ouce.ox.ac.uk; Tel: +44 1865 275848
Online Resource 1 European area-average changes in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) mean temperature
and precipitation for the 2050s, the five GCMs and three combinations of emissions scenario and climate
sensitivity
Climate
CSMK3
IPCM4
sensitivity DJF
JJA
DJF
JJA
o
2050s Area average temperature change ( C)
B1
1.5 (Low)
1.7
1.1
1.3
1.3
B2
3.0 (Med)
3.3
2.1
2.4
2.5
A1b
4.5 (High)
4.9
3.1
3.6
3.6
2050s Area average precipitation change (%)
B1
1.5 (Low)
4.2
-2.0
2.5
-4.2
B2
3.0 (Med)
8.3
-3.4
4.9
-7.4
A1b
4.5 (High) 12.5 -4.6
7.4 -10.3
Emissions
HadGEM
DJF
JJA
GFCM21
DJF
JJA
MPEH5
DJF
JJA
1.1
2.0
3.0
1.3
2.4
3.5
1.2
2.3
3.4
1.1
2.0
3.0
1.2
2.2
3.3
1.0
1.9
2.8
1.1
2.1
3.3
-9.6
-16.8
-23.0
3.6
7.2
11.1
-13.6
-22.6
-29.5
3.6
7.0
10.6
-7.8
-13.6
-18.6
Online Resource 2 (Next Page) Patterns of changes in annual temperature (first column), winter
precipitation (second column) and summer precipitation for the 2050s, A1b emissions scenarios and
medium climate sensitivity for five GCMs: CSMK3 (first row), GFCM21 (second row), HADGEM (third row),
IPCM4 (fourth row), and MPEH5 (last row)
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2
Online Resource 3 Europe-wide changes in selected socio-economic drivers under the four CLIMSAVE
socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s
Variable (% change from current)
SOCIAL DRIVERS:
Population
Water savings due to behavioural change
Dietary preferences for meat
TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVERS:
Agricultural mechanisation
Water savings due to technological change
Agricultural yields
Irrigation efficiency
ECONOMIC DRIVERS:
GDP
Food imports
Bioenergy production
Oil price
We are the
World
Icarus
Should I Say or
Should I Go
Riders on
the Storm
5
45
-21
-9
-30
10
23
11
0
16
52
-9
44
29
15
26
10
-35
-9
-9
5
-60
-3
-21
77
45
26
58
94
-13
1.8
73
0
-6
6.7
210
-36
-13
1.8
163
54
-13
6.7
210
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Online Resource 4 Description of the 11 sectoral indicators
Indicator
Description
Artificial surfaces
Percentage of each grid cell under urban/suburban land cover.
People flooded in a 1 in 100 The number of people flooded by both coastal and fluvial flooding in a 1
year event
in 100 year (1%) event.
Water Exploitation Index
Proportion of the available water resources in each catchment that is
abstracted for agricultural, domestic or energy production.
Irrigation usage
Average annual volume of irrigation usage.
Biodiversity Vulnerability Index A measure of the total number of species within each grid cell that
loose or gain both suitable climate and habitat space compared to the
baseline. It is based on a subgroup of 12 species1 that represent a
cross-section of European species from different taxa, regions and
habitats.
Food production
Gridded production-weighted food production derived as total daily
calories of all foodstuffs modelled for each grid cell divided by the
population.
Intensively farmed
Percentage of each grid cell under arable or dairying.
Extensively farmed
Percentage of each grid cell under sheep and beef cattle farming.
Forest area
Area of each grid cell under managed and unmanaged forest.
Unmanaged land
Percentage of each grid cell that is not under arable, forestry or urban
land uses.
Intensity index
Scoring land uses in the following order of intensity: Urban > Intensive >
Extensive > Forest > Unmanaged land. The total score for a grid cell is
compared with the baseline value to determine whether or not land
use has intensified.
1
(1) Common poppy (Papaver rhoeas), (2) Linnet (Carduelis cannabina), (3) Bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), (4)
Hornbeam (Carpinus betulus), (5) Norway spruce (Picea abies), (6) Brown bear (Ursus arctos arctos), (7) Western
dappled white butterfly (Euchloe crameri), (8) Common saltmarsh grass (Puccinellia maritima), (9) Strawberry clover
(Trifolium fragiferum), (10) Bell heather (Erica cinerea), (11) Red deer (Cervus elaphas), (12) Capercaillie (Tetrao
urogallus).
4
Online Resource 5 The four European regions: Western Europe= Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic,
Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary (west), Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Slovakia (west),
Switzerland, UK; Southern Europe = Bulgaria (southwest), Greece, France (Mediterranean coast), Italy,
Portugal, Spain, Slovenia; Eastern Europe = Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany (extreme northeast), Hungary
(east), Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia (east); Northern Europe = Norway, Sweden, Finland
5
ALL EUROPE
NORTHERN EUROPE
SOUTHERN EUROPE
Artifi
cial
Surfa
ces
Peop
le
Floo
ded
Wate
r
Explo
itatio
n
Irriga
tion
Usag
e
Biodi
versi
ty
Vuln
IPCM4erabi
High
lity
Inten
sive
Agric
ulture
Food
Prod
uctio
n
GFCM21 Low
Exte
nsive
Agric
ultur
e
Fores
t Area
Unm
anag
ed
Land
Inten
sity
Online Resource 6 Climate-driven changes in mean grid-cell indicator values with reference to baseline
values. The two scenarios are those which lead to the greatest and least change in unmanaged land.
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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Online Resource 7 Box and whisker plots for Europe and the four regions for nine indicators for baseline, 2050s
climate scenarios combined with baseline socio-economic (All CC; values based on grid cell data from 10 runs), the 10
climate scenarios combined with each of the four socio-economic scenarios (All CC + Riders, WRW, SoG and Icarus;
each based on 10 runs) and the Low (_L) and High (_H) emissions scenarios of the five climate models (HadGEM,
GFCM21, IPCM4, CSMK3 and MPEH5) combined with the four socio-economic scenarios (All SE + HadGEM_H, etc;
each based on 4 runs). The whiskers show the 5th and 95th percentiles whilst the boxes show the 25th and 75th
percentiles. The median is marked with a white dash in the centre of the box. Note for scaling reasons that values may
extend off the displayed graph.
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