EC8006: Data Analysis, Modeling and Research Methods Lecturers: Dr. Christopher Sibley / Prof. Michael King Phone: 4984305 / 8962735 Email: Christopher.sibley@cso.ie / michael.king@tcd.ie Office: Central Statistics Office, Dublin 6 / 3002 Arts Building Office Hours: TBC / TBC Additional Lecturers: Daniel Faas and Antje Roeder Teaching Assistant: Emma Howard (howardek@tcd.ie) CONTACT HOURS 30 hours of lectures 20 hours of tutorials 50 hours in total ECTS VALUE: 15 RATIONALE AND AIMS This module is designed to give students the tools required to evaluate public policy programmes and make recommendations based on sound quantitative reasoning. While the module will cover a broad range of statistical concepts and tools, the emphasis in all cases will be on application and interpretation of results. Where appropriate, Irish data will be used to illustrate the techniques being studied. Two key questions that will be considered throughout the module are: (a) when are various statistical techniques most appropriate and (b) how can we use statistical information to improve policy, or a law, or a public sector programme? Students will be required to familiarise themselves with basic calculations and computing, but they will also have to analyse and interpret the derived results. This means that there will be more emphasis on writing and explanations than would be the case in a standard statistical module. The module will conclude with a special feature on qualitative research methods. Many data sources will be covered in this module, including those provided by the CSO, EUROSTAT and the OECD, with information and guidance provided with regard to accessing and using both on-line and hardcopy versions. The generation and understanding of qualitative data will also be reviewed, as well as an understanding of case-study type material provided. Best practice in relation to other aspects of research will also be covered. MODULE LEARNING OUTCOMES Having successfully completed this module, students will be able to: Find, navigate and manage new datasets; Explain and interpret statistical and econometric terminology/ results; Conduct statistical and econometric tests on datasets; Complete policy reports for a general audience based on the results of these tests; Conduct qualitative surveys and interpret the results. WORKLOAD This is a 15 credit course that carries between 300 and 350 hours of work. These hours will include reading assigned materials, preparing exercises, attending class and tutorials, exam preparation, etc. ASSESSMENT AND LEARNING OUTCOMES Term Michaelmas/Hiliary Term Hiliary Term (Presentation early January, Due date end of term) Trinity Term Assessment Workshop homeworks Assignment Due Date % Marks TBC 10% TBC 20% Written exam TBC 70% The learning outcomes are assessed during a final examination, and homework assignments. Marking will depend on (1) correctness of the formulation of the statistical question, (2) correctness of the method used for solving the question, (3) correctness of the application of the method used for solving the question, and (4) the format, logical consistency, and accuracy of the reported solution. COURSE CONTENT No. Topic Michaelmas Term 1 Sampling design and the nature of statistics 2 Organising and graphing data 3 Descriptive measures 4 Probability 5 Normal distributions 6 Sampling distribution of the sample mean 7 Confidence Intervals 8 Hypothesis testing 9 Chi-Square Procedures 10 Index numbers Hiliary Term 1 Class Presentations 2 Regression I 3 Regression II 4 Research Methods/ Data Collection 5 Regression III 6 Regression IV 7 Qualitative Methods I 8 Qualitative Methods II 9 Qualitative Methods III 10 Qualitative Methods IV Date Sept 28th Oct 5th Oct 12th Oct 19th Nov 2nd Nov 9th Nov 16th Nov 23th Nov 30th Dec 7th Jan 18th Jan 25th Feb 1st Feb 8th Feb 15th Mar 1st Mar 8th Mar 15th Mar 22nd Apr 5th Workshop Workshop 1 Oct 6th Workshop 2 Oct 20th Workshop 3 Workshop 4 Nov 17th Nov 24th Workshop 5 Dec 8th Workshop 6 Jan 26th Workshop 7 Feb 9th Workshop 8 Mar 2nd Workshop 9 Workshop 10 Mar 23rd April 6th CLASS TIMES Lecture times: 8.30 to 10.00 every Friday, Michaelmas Term (MT) and Hilary Term (HT). Lectures will involve both lecture presentation format and practical examples. Workshop times: 9.15 to 11.15 Saturday mornings (approximately every second weekend). EVALUATION Online survey RECOMMENDED TEXTS Neil A. Weiss, Introductory Statistics, 9th Edition 2011. Additional reading will be highlighted as the course progresses.