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A STATISTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST CITED ISI PAPERS IN THE FIELD OF RESERVOIR OPERATION Mohammad Sadegh Sadeghian1, Mohammad Heydari3, Faridah Othman*4 and Saba Yeganeh2 1. 2. 3. 4. Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Dept., Faculty of Engineering, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran. [email protected] PhD candidate, Dept of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, [email protected] Associated professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, [email protected] MSc Graduate at Civil Engineering Dept., Faculty of Engineering, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. [email protected] Abstract: Research has always been a tremendous role in the development of in theory and applied issues. These developments have been reflected in many scientific papers. This paper aims to identify the best papers in the field of optimal reservoir operation. The method used in this research is reviewing of ISI papers taken from the Web of Science. In this regard, 579 papers have been found between 1980 and 2014 that the two words “Reservoir” and “Operation” have been seen in their titles. In fact, the results of this statistical study introduce the top researchers, journals and the leading countries in the field of optimal reservoir operation. The large number of publications in this field indicates that the problem of water resources cannot be solved only by the construction of the dam and it needs more study on optimal operation of water resources. Keywords: Reservoir operation, ISI paper, Optimization, Top cited papers, Water resources 1. Introduction: In recent decades, the vast amount of the papers indicates that extensive efforts have been made to overcome the theoretical and practical problems. Operation of reservoirs is one of the most important and complicated issues in usage of dams that the designers have had challenges with for long (Othman et al. 2012b). During the last decades, optimization and simulation have been used widely in water resource systems planning and management. The main focus of previous studies were on developing tools to help decision making in water resources planning and development (Othman et al. 2012a). In recent years, researchers have used different techniques for optimal operation of reservoirs. They used mathematical programming methods, evolutionary algorithms and artificial intelligent for solving problems in this area. Linear Programming (Reis et al. 2006), Mixed Integer Linear Programming (Heydari et al. 2014), Nonlinear Programming (Arunkumar and Jothiprakash 2012), Folded Dynamic Programming (Kumar et al. 2010) are some mathematical programming methods. Genetic Algorithm (Chang et al. 2010; Noori et al. 2013), Particle Swarm Optimization (Ostadrahimi et al. 2012), Honey-bee mating optimization (HBMO) algorithm (Afshar et al. 2007), Ant Colony Optimization (Kumar and Reddy 2006) are samples of evolutionary algorithms, Also, Artificial Neural Networks (Chaves and Chang 2008) and fuzzy systems (Mousavi et al. 2007) are two artificial intelligence techniques that have been used in the reservoir operation. In this paper we aim to evaluate statistically the previous research in the reservoir operation fields. The Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) has been used for this study since it has a systematic way to measure the citation of scientific journals, and it is considered as a good indicator for assessment of scientific research. 2. Material and Methods: Surveying on scientific research in the field of reservoir operation, the reference should be reliable and valid. For this purpose, the website of the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) database, which is known as an indicator for measuring citations in scientific journals were used. In the first step, the phrases “Reservoir” and “Operation” were searched together in the title search bar. These terms were searched in titles between 1980 to 2014 years and 579 papers were collected and listed. Then, the data related to the articles such as title, author names, countries/territories, publication years, source titles and citations were sorted in the Microsoft Excel. For statistical analysis, the quantitative and qualitative statistical software was used. 3. Results The most cited papers: Among mentioned 579 papers, the first one hundred papers have been considered as references which the most citations are 516 and the minimum is 14 times. The average number of citations is 40.90. Table 1 shows the top 10 papers with the most citations. Table 1 Top 10 papers with the most citations Rank 1 2 3 Citation count 516 177 127 4 112 5 103 6 7 8 97 91 87 9 84 10 71 Title of Paper Reservoir management and operations models - a state-of-the-art review Evaluation of genetic algorithms for optimal reservoir system operation Application of ANN for reservoir inflow prediction and operation Stochastic dynamic-programming models for reservoir operation optimization Optimal operation of multi-reservoir power-systems with stochastic inflows Intelligent control for modelling of real-time reservoir operation Sampling stochastic dynamic-programming applied to reservoir operation Fuzzy rule-based modeling of reservoir operation Optimizing hydropower reservoir operation using hybrid genetic algorithm and chaos Honey-bee mating optimization (HBMO) algorithm for optimal reservoir Classification of Papers: Among the papers, 78% of them were published in journals and 20% of them were also presented at conferences. Studies show that only 1.03% of the papers are review papers (figure 1). The statistics show that there can be more review paper published in this field. Figure 1 The number of different document types about reservoir operation The Time Distribution: Among of 579 papers dealing with optimization of dam reservoir operation, most of the papers that related to the year 2012 are 56 papers which indicate the importance of the subject and need for research in those years. For after the construction of large dams in different countries of the world, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the reservoir systems and maximizing the benefits arising from them have been the most studied topics in recent years. Figure 2 shows the time-distribution of related papers. As seen here, about 65% of the available papers are related to the period of 2004 to 2013. Figure 2 The number of papers published in ISI journals about reservoir operation in different years The spatial distribution (Superior Countries): General review of 579 papers show that the most papers related to optimal operation of dam reservoirs are for China and the United States of America, each of them have 132 papers and the next rank is related to Iran with 72 papers and Canada, and India have been place in next ranks with 52 and 43 papers respectively. It should be mentioned that China and USA have most number of dams with 80,000 and 75,000 dams, respectively.. Figure 3 shows the distribution of number of papers in different countries of the world. Figure 3 Leading countries in reservoir operation research Language of Papers: About 557 papers out of 579 papers, i.e., around 97% have been written in English and then 9 papers, i.e., about 1.5% has been written in German. Subject Classification: More than 61% of papers are in the field of water resources and over 55% of them are in the field of engineering studies and 18% of them are environmental domain among selected 579 papers. This happens while many of the papers fall into two or even more domains. The Table 2 shows the frequency of first five field studies of these papers. Table 2 the major frequencies subjects related to reservoir operation Areas of study Water Resources Engineering Environment Geology Computer sciences Number of Papers 354 322 109 75 55 Different Applied Optimization Methods: Table 3 represent different applied optimization methods studding by authors. Some papers have used a combination of two or more optimization methods. The applied methods in reviewed papers are in the Table 3. Table 3 Optimization methods applied in reservoir operation papers Mathematical methods Evolutionary algorithms and artificial intelligence Optimization Method DP LP NLP Optimal control GA Fuzzy ANN HBMO ACO Percent 25% 12% 8.70% 2.50% 21% 20% 3.70% 3.70% 2.50% Reviewing optimization methods, it has been found that the Dynamic Programming, Genetic Algorithm and Fuzzy methods has been the most used methods in the literature were reviewed each with 25%, 21% and 20%, respectively. Top journals: One of the key issues that must be analyzed is to find relevant journal. The countless number of papers published in each journal represents more probability of publishing these papers in the proposed journals. Table 4 shows the most appropriate journals to publish in our case. Table 4 The most relevant journals to publish papers related to the optimal operation of reservoirs (with more than 5 papers accepted record) Source Titles Records % of 579 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management ASCE 56 9.672 Water Resources Management 49 8.463 Water Resources Research 42 7.254 Water Resources Bulletin 20 3.454 Hydrological Processes 14 2.418 Hydrological Sciences Journal Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques 13 2.245 IAHS Publication 13 2.245 Journal of Hydrology 13 2.245 Advances In Water Resources 12 2.073 Applied Mechanics And Materials 10 1.727 Journal of The American Water Resources Association 10 1.727 Journal of Hydroinformatics 9 1.554 Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering Asce 8 1.382 Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 7 1.209 Considering Hydrological Change in Reservoir Planning and Management 7 1.209 Dynamic Programming Based Operation of Reservoirs Applicability and Limits International Hydrology Series 7 1.209 7 1.209 Expert Systems With Applications 6 1.036 Wasserwirtschaft 6 1.036 Superior Researchers: The 579 papers have been written by 256 researchers and the mean number of researchers is 2.94 and the mean number of papers by per researcher has been 4.5 papers. The maximum numbers of authors for a paper have been 12 and after that 10 authors .An author has largest number 19 papers in reservoir operation field. The following table shows the top 10 authors with the most papers in this area. It can be said these persons are somehow the most expert regarding to optimize operation of dam reservoirs. A total of 101 Editors also undertook the task of editing 579 papers ten of them with the highest number of papers are presented in the table 5. Table 5 Top 10 author and editor in reservoir operation subject Top Authors Author #of papers 1 Marino Ma 19 2 Karamouz M 15 3 Afshar A 13 4 Simonovic Sp 12 5 Chang Fj 11 6 Afshar Mh 10 7 Mousavi Sj 10 8 Cai Xm 9 9 Haddad Ob 9 10 Kumar DN 9 Top Editors Editor name #of Papers Shang Hq Belyaev V Gargouri E Kuczera G Mahe G Mallory S Schumann A Luo Xx Hu C Jiang Cb 10 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 Keywords: The main reason to choose one paper as a superior paper is the high number of citations. These numbers of citations usually occur when the paper will be significantly easier found in search. Assuming equal access conditions, the paper appears earlier in which title and keywords are used better. So choosing the proper research title and keyword are playing an important role in this field. Here, statistics and available information among the papers are presented separately in the author keywords (or keywords written in the paper) and Keyword plus as suggested keywords in Web of Science. Ten available key words in written papers are presented in the table 6. Total repetition of these ten words in the papers has been 976 times and the words reservoir and operation have been ranked in the first and second by 251 and 186 repetitions, respectively. Table 6 The comparison of author keyword and keyword plus Keywords plus Author keywords Rank Word (author) Occurrences Frequency Rank Word (plus) Occurrences Frequency 1 Reservoir 251 6.7 1 Optimization 110 5 2 Operation 186 4.9 2 Management 87 3.9 3 Water 123 3.3 3 Systems 77 3.5 4 Water 75 3.4 4 Optimization 115 3 5 System 54 2.4 5 Programming 56 1.5 5 Multireservoir 53 2.4 5 Flood 55 1.5 5 Genetic 52 2.3 6 Genetic 52 1.4 7 Model 47 2.1 7 Fuzzy 47 1.2 8 Models 39 1.8 7 Dynamic 46 1.2 8 algorithm 39 1.8 7 Model 45 1.2 Ten keywords suggested in the Web of Science are provided in the following table which total repetition of these words is 633 times and the first word is Optimization with 110 repetitions and the next word is Management with 87 repetitions. The biggest character used in the previous papers was a 18-character word and after that a 17character word that each one was used only once. The biggest character used in recommended papers in Web of Science was a 20-character word used only once. The statistics are as follows. Two-word phrases have been repeated 420 times in written papers and the most repeated phrase associated with Reservoir operation which was repeated 114 times. And a two-word phrase has been repeated 234 times in proposed papers in Web of Science. Two-word phrase -multi reservoir systems – has been repeated most frequently 41 times. The statistical studies of two-word phrases are presented in the table 7 and table 8. Table 7 Two word phrase expression by author keyword Expression (author) Reservoir operation Dynamic programming Genetic algorithm Flood control Stochastic dynamic Operation optimization Water quality Optimal operation Multi obective Water resources Three gorges Expression count 140 36 30 25 20 19 18 18 16 15 15 Frequency 3.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Optimization reservoir Genetic algorithms Swarm optimization Multi reservoir 14 14 13 12 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Table 8 Two word phrase expression by keyword plus Expression(plus) Multireservoir systems Genetic algorithm Water resources Optimization Management Water supply Management models Supply operations Systems optimization Rule curves Neural network System optimization System genetic Multireservoir system Optimization system Hedging rule Water quality Optimization models Expression count 41 27 24 16 14 14 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 Frequency 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Prominence 60.4 67.2 37.8 48 6.9 55.9 5.3 53 55.4 57.3 35.4 55.1 41.4 51.4 18.4 21.3 43.2 Title: The words “Reservoir” and “Operation” are mentioned on all titles. After these two words, the words “optimal”, “optimization”, “using” and “stochastic” are the most frequently repeated on the paper titles respectively. Their statistics are demonstrated in the following table 9. Table 9 The most common words used in the papers Rank 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 Word Reservoir Operation Optimal Optimization Using Stochastic Multi Operations Model Occurrences 87 83 19 19 18 17 13 13 12 Frequency 10.6 10.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 4. Conclusion: This study may be considered as a first statistical report on the reservoirs operation papers. The findings showed that a lot of researches are done for optimal reservoir operation every year. This means that storing the water in reservoirs cannot address the problems solely and optimal reservoir operation should be considered after every dam construction. By looking at the analysis in this paper, it is clear that the most citations (excluding review articles) for articles are for papers that emphasize the use of modern methods. Meanwhile, the importance of the optimal reservoir operation in some countries such as Iran is a little more because of water shortage crisis. 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