oil spills advantage
1nc f/l
No drilling in Cuba absent the US
O'Grady 13 an editor of the Wall Street Journal and member of the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board since 2005. She writes
predominantly on Latin America and is a co-editor of the Index of Economic Freedom. (Mary Anastasia, "Cuba's Oil Bust," 4/24/13,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324474004578442511561458392.html)//AM
Remember all the hype about Cuba drilling for oil in Caribbean waters and American companies missing out on the bonanza
because of the U.S. embargo? Well, like all the other Cuban get-rich-quick schemes of the past 50 years, this one
seems to have flopped too. Last week, Florida's Sun Sentinel reported that "after spending nearly $700 million during
a decade, energy companies from around the world have all but abandoned their search for oil in deep
waters off the north coast of Cuba near Florida." Separately, CubaStandard.com reported on Friday that
"the shallow-water drilling platform used by Russian oil company OAO Zarubezhneft will leave Cuban
waters June 1, to be redeployed to Asia."
-industry guru who had been
cheering Cuba's exploration attempts, said "Companies are saying, 'We cannot spend any more capital on this highrisk exploration. We'd rather go to Brazil; we'd rather go to Angola; we'd rather go to other places in the
world where the technological and geological challenges are less.'" It wouldn't be the first time the dictatorship
thought it had found a short cut to wealth. In 1970 it put all its faith in the "ten-million ton harvest," which promised to get the nation off Soviet
dependency by forcing every Cuban to work in the cane fields. It failed. Then there was that cow, Ubre Blanca, literally "white udder" in
Spanish. She was a cross between two breeds and in 1982 Cuba claimed that she produced a world-record of 24 gallons of milk in one day.
When she died, in 1985, Fidel Castro instructed Cuba's genetic scientists to get to work on making more of her. Almost 30 years later Cuban
researchers were still at it. In June 2002, the Telegraph reported that "Dr Jose Morales, the head of the White Udder cloning project, is
confident that a breakthrough is imminent. 'We're very close,' he said. 'We have big things coming. This project is very important to
Comandante Castro.'" Then
came promises of an oil boom and last week the predictable bust. The Brazilian
state-owned Petrobras PETR4.BR +1.12% had given up on deep-sea drilling in Cuban waters in 2011.
Repsol REP.MC +2.23% gave up in May 2012. The deep water platform it was using was then passed to
Malaysia's state-owned Petronas, which also came up empty. Venezuela's PdVSA had no luck either. In
November Cuba announced that the rig that had been in use would be heading to Asia. Last week came the end of shallowwater drilling.
Boosting Cuba’s oil industry collapses their economy—independently destroys the
agriculture, ethanol and biotech sectors
Orro 9 (Roberto, Board memeber of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE),
member of the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce, “ Petrolism In Cuba And Implications Of U.S.
Investment In The Cuban Oil Sector”
2009http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume19/pdfs/orro.pdf) //KY
After a plethora of empirical works addressing the effects of oil on democracy and development, and the
record of Cuba over the last fifty years, it is not difficult to image the picture of an oil-rich Cuba. Let us begin
with the economic implications:• Agriculture will surely receive the biggest negative blow. Imports of foods will rise and
thechances to overhaul Cuba’s troubled agriculture will go away. Further concessions to private farmers
would look as an improbable scenario. • A huge inflow of petrodollars to Cuba will also hurt tourism. As it has
happened since 2004, Cuban authorities will lose interest in exploiting the full potential of tourism . They will just
focus on resorts and some tourist niches like Varadero, where foreign visitors are isolated from the population. Tourism to big cities, which
promotes interaction between foreigners and Cubans and directs some money into the pockets of ordinary citizens, will continue to lose
ground. • Manufacturing will not go unscathed either. An offshore
oil boom could finally kill the sugar industry. It is
noteworthy that Cuban officials court U.S. oil companies, but never mention the island’s potential as an ethanol producer.
The Cuban leadership does not like cooperation in this sector, as they do not want thousands of
Cuban workers andfarmers interacting with U.S. firms. The revival of the sugar sector, both agricultural and industrial, demands
liberalizing steps that the Cuban government refuses to take. Oil and sugar do not really mix. • Biotechnology and
pharmaceuticals, in which Cuba has made some notable strides, could fall in the doldrums as well. Over the last 50
years, Cuba has shown a long record of replacing rather than adding economic activity. Once the
government gives priority to one sector—the one that provides revenues without political risk —they let others
stagnate.
Cuban biotech key to solve disease—other countries cannot solve
Gutierrez 13 (Aramis Sanchez, “The Convergence of Biotech and Public Health” microbiologist with a master’s degree in infectious diseases
MEDICC Review, January 2013, Vol 15, No 1http://medicc.org/mediccreview/articles/mr_286.pdf) //KY
Conceiving, building, maintaining and refi ning a universal health system is an inordinately complex undertaking. Its effective implementation
requires everything from political will consistently and strategically applied, to accurate epidemiological data and analysis, plus quality medical
education and active citizen participation. It also takes resources—fi nancial, technological, pharmaceutical and professional—a perennial
challenge for a small, economically-constrained island nation like Cuba. Indeed, even some highly developed nations like the United States have
yet to achieve universal health coverage. In Cuba’s case, resource scarcity itself, coupled
with the need to develop a
sustainable health care model suffi ciently independent of global geopolitical and economic turbulence, has, paradoxically, led to
the establishment of a key health system component: a robust domestic biopharmaceutical industry.[1] A Global
South leader in biotech R&D, Cuba produces innovative vaccines and therapies—many unique in the world—
such as Heberprot-P, Nimotuzumab, VA-MENGOC-BC, and a synthetic antigen vaccine against Haemophilus infl uenzae b (Hib). [2]
While these products are the headline-makers, diagnostic systems and equipment designed, built and distributed by Havana’s Immunoassay
Center (CIE, the Spanish acronym) have
quietly but consistently contributed to improving Cuban and global health for over
two decades. Background Cuba’s aggressive push to develop a domestic biotech sector dates to the early 1980s when a cluster of scientifi
c research and manufacturing institutions were established to produce interferon, recombinant proteins and other biotech products. These
institutions became the building blocks of Cuba’s
Scientifi c Pole, a scientifi c campus located in western Havana, which today
comprises 24 research institutions and 58 manufacturing facilities, employs more than 7000 scientists
and engineers[3] and collectively accounted for US$711 million in export earnings in 2011; this makes it the country’s largest revenueearning manufacturing industry after nickel.[4
Disease spread causes extinction
Yu 9. (Victoria, 5/22/09, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate.” Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science.
http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate)
Citing the CDC and R. Calsbeek, a lecturer at Dartmouth
A pandemic will kill off all humans. In the past, humans have indeed fallen victim to viruses. Perhaps the best-known case was
the bubonic plague that killed up to one third of the European population in the mid-14th century (7). While
vaccines have been developed for the plague and some other infectious diseases, new viral strains are constantly
emerging — a process that maintains the possibility of a pandemic-facilitated human extinction. Some
surveyed students mentioned AIDS as a potential pandemic-causing virus. It is true that scientists have been unable thus far to find a
sustainable cure for AIDS, mainly due to HIV’s rapid and constant evolution. Specifically, two factors account for the virus’s abnormally high
mutation rate: 1. HIV’s use of reverse transcriptase, which does not have a proof-reading mechanism, and 2. the lack of an error-correction
mechanism in HIV DNA polymerase (8). Luckily, though, there are certain characteristics of HIV that make it a poor candidate for a large-scale
global infection: HIV can lie dormant in the human body for years without manifesting itself, and AIDS itself does not kill directly, but rather
through the weakening of the immune system. However, for more easily transmitted viruses such as influenza, the evolution of new strains
could prove far more consequential. The simultaneous occurrence of antigenic drift (point mutations that lead to new strains) and antigenic
shift (the inter-species transfer of disease) in the influenza virus
could produce a new version of influenza for which
scientists may not immediately find a cure. Since influenza can spread quickly, this lag time could potentially lead to a “global
influenza pandemic,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (9). The most recent scare of this variety came in 1918 when
bird flu managed to kill over 50 million people around the world in what is sometimes referred to as the Spanish flu pandemic. Perhaps even
more frightening is the fact that only 25 mutations were required to convert the original viral strain — which could only infect birds — into a
human-viable strain (10).
Venezuelan oil cutoff spurs democratization – China and Brazil will fill in regardless
Tamayo 13 - Foreign Editor and Chief of Correspondents at The Miami Herald (Juan O Tamayo, “How will the Venezuela-Cuba link fare
after Chávez’s death?”, March 5, 2013, Miami Herald, http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/03/05/3268483/how-will-the-venezuela-cubalink.html)
Some analysts argue that a cut
in Venezuelan aid might prove beneficial to Cuba in the long run by forcing ruler
Raúl Castro to drastically broaden and speed up the reforms toward a market economy that he has been
pushing since 2007. Castro’s reforms so far have done little to resolve the massive problems in the economy, from bottom-of-the barrel
industrial productivity and salaries to a stalled rural sector that forced Havana to import $1.6 billion worth of agricultural products in 2011. “It’s
imperative to have a truly deep opening that would allow Cubans to import and export, professionals to be productive and enterprising citizens
to become the motor for the economy,” wrote Emilio Morales, head of the Havana consulting Group in Miami. Havana
also might not
feel an aid cutoff as sharply as it felt the end of the Soviet subsidies because its good relations with
China and Brazil could attract some additional support from them, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit report. And
Venezuela may only trim and not totally cut off its assistance because it benefits from the relationship
through the Cuban doctors, who treat poor families that tend to vote for Chávez’s party, as well as security, military and other advisers.
Cuba is key to broader Latin American democracy promotion
Santons, 8 – chairman of the Cuban American National Foundation (Jorge Mas, “How to Win the Cuban American Vote,” Washington Post,
25 October 2008, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-10-25/opinions/36910345_1_cuban-dissidents-travel-and-remittances-cubanamericans)//BI
U.S. policy toward Cuba is at best static and at worst counterproductive, a source of increasing frustration to many Cuban
Americans. This sad status quo contributes to the challenge that Cuban Americans will face on Election Day as, once again, particularly in
Florida, our vote will probably help determine the next occupant of the White House. The
overwhelming majority of Cuban
Americans expect the next president to abandon today's failed "wait and hope" policy and adopt a policy of
support and engagement directed toward opening new avenues of freedom for the Cuban people as well as
enhancing stability in the United States. The Cuban American National Foundation, the nation's largest Cuban exile organization, has a
predominantly Republican membership. Yet our fundamental interest is not partisan politics but helping to restore freedom to our brothers and
sisters on the island. We entered the new millennium expecting U.S. policy toward Cuba to follow the effective model of the West's support for
Poland's Solidarity movement and civil society across Eastern Europe. It was our hope that by
seeking to empower Cuba's
society through unlimited support for the brave men and women on the island opposing the Castro regime, the
energy and resources of the Cuban American community would be unleashed. To this end, we have been sorely
independent civil
disappointed. As a direct result of President Bush's strategic blunder in 2004 restricting contact with the island, Cuban dissidents have
experienced a significant reduction in material and humanitarian assistance. They are also subject to a ban on receiving cash remittances that
help them and their families survive. The isolation of these and other Cubans has increased while Fidel Castro's departure from office caught
the Bush administration off guard. Together, these developments have helped Raúl Castro consolidate control over the Cuban people. These
failures in U.S. policy undermine important American interests. Just as a democratic Israel is a key U.S.
friend in a critical region, a democratic Cuba would be a crucial ally in furthering democracy in Latin
America . Cuba is important, also, because the dissatisfaction of its people under the Castro regime is bound to have a significant effect on
Floridians and Cuban Americans nationwide. It has in the past.
Extinction
Diamond 95
Larry, Senior Fellow – Hoover Institution, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, December,
http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm
OTHER THREATS This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in the coming years and decades. In
the former Yugoslavia nationalist aggression tears at the stability of Europe and could easily spread. The flow of illegal drugs
intensifies through increasingly powerful international crime syndicates that have made common cause with authoritarian
regimes and have utterly corrupted the institutions of tenuous, democratic ones. Nuclear, chemical, and biological
weapons continue to proliferate. The very source of life on Earth, the global ecosystem, appears
increasingly endangered. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or
aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy, with its provisions for legality, accountability, popular
sovereignty, and openness. LESSONS OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY The experience of this century offers important
lessons. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one
another. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. Democratic
governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations, and they are much less likely to face ethnic
insurgency. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. They do not build w eapons of m ass
d estruction to use on or to threaten one another. Democratic countries form more reliable, open, and
enduring trading partnerships. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for
investment. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own
citizens, who organize to protest the destruction of their environments. They are better bets to honor international treaties
since they value legal obligations and because their openness makes it much more difficult to breach agreements in secret.
Precisely because, within their own borders, they respect competition, civil liberties, property rights, and the rule of law,
democracies are the only reliable foundation on which a new world order of international security and
prosperity can be built.
Status quo solves oil spills – Coast Guard response plans and inspections
Nerurkar and Sullivan 11 (Neelesh AND Mark P., "Cuba's Offshore Oil Development: Background and U.S. Policy Considerations,"
Congressional Research Service, 11/28/11, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdf)//AM
The Obama Administration has
been making efforts to prepare for a potential oil spill in Cuban ¶ waters that
could affect the United States. The U.S. Coast Guard has been working with state, ¶ local, and other
federal agencies to ensure that area contingency plans covering Florida are ¶ adequate. The National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in cooperation with ¶ the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy
Management (BOEM) has run ¶ trajectory models in order to identify potential landfall areas along the U.S.
coasts, information ¶ that is being used to enhance the area contingency plans.48 Since March 2011, the Coast Guard’s ¶ Seventh
District in Miami has been working to develop an International Offshore Drilling ¶ Response Plan. As part of
this effort, the Coast Guard hosted an inter-agency table top exercise in ¶ Miami on November 17, 2011, responding to a fictitious
international spill off the coast of ¶ Florida.49 U.S. agencies have also engaged with officials from Repsol,
which has provided information ¶ regarding its plans related to drilling and oil spill response. The company
has offered U.S. ¶ agencies an opportunity to inspect the Scarabeo-9 oil rig. Both the Coast Guard and the ¶ Department of the
Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) are ¶ planning to inspect the rig before it enters Cuban
waters. According to U.S. officials, Repsol ¶ maintains that it will adhere to U.S. regulations and the
highest industry standards when ¶ conducting its exploratory drilling in Cuban waters.50
No aid shutdown—Maduro will continue to supply Cuba
Xinhua 13 News industry, citing Diosadado Cabello, the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly (Xinhua News Agency 6/7/13
“Venezuela-Cuba ties to stay strong: official” http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/787836.shtml#.UczWuGR0wao ) //KY
HAVANA, June 7 (Xinhua) -- Friendship
between Venezuela and Cuba will continue to stay strong, Venezuelan
National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello said here Friday. The solidarity, friendship and camaraderie between the
two nations, promoted by their respective former leaders, Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro, will continue to thrive for many years, said
Cabello, who began an official three-day visit to Cuba on Friday. Cabello, after meeting his Cuban counterpart, Esteban Lazo, thanked the Cuban
people and their leaders for giving medical treatment to Chavez. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Chavez's successor, is
committed to continuing the policies spearheaded by Chavez, said Cabello. Lazo reiterated Cuba's respect for
Venezuela's Bolivarian Revolution, the term Chavez gave to the socialist reforms he launched to address the country's inequity. The Cuban
legislator also highlighted the extraordinary effort Chavez made to promote unity in Latin America and the Caribbean, saying Chavez served as
an inspiration for other revolutionaries in the region. With Chavez in power, the two countries had maintained good relations. Venezuela
supplies Cuba with 100,000 barrels of oil per day, and in exchange, Cuba provides Venezuela with more than 45,000
professionals, mainly in medical and healthcare fields.
Can’t solve econ—government policies
Feinberg, 11 http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2011/11/18-cuba-feinberg November 2011 Reaching Out: Cuba’s New Economy
and the International Response By: Richard Feinberg Richard Feinberg is professor of international political economy at the Graduate School of
International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego. Feinberg served as special assistant to President Clinton and
senior director of the National Security Council’s Office of Inter-American Affairs. He has held positions on the State Department's policy
planning staff and worked as an international economist in the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of International Affairs.//JH
This study (Section 1) opens with a discussion of the accomplishments and shortcomings of the ailing Cuban economy:
the paradox of
the Cuban revolution is that while it endowed its citizens with abundant human capital it has sadly left
them without the tools or incentives to fully employ their acquired talents. The Cuban economy is
characterized by sagging industrial and agricultural production, insufficient savings and investment
rates, poor export performance and chronic deficits in merchandise trade, and repeated suspensions of
service on external debts. The scarcity of consumer necessities, over-crowded housing, and the
indifferent quality of services make daily life in Cuba especially challenging, and ambitious Cuban youth are
frustrated at the lack of attractive opportunities for productive and well-paid employment.
2nc drilling not inevitable
Multiple problems with drilling in Cuba – companies are disincentivized
Franks 13 reporter for Reuters (Jeff, "Cuban oil hopes sputter as Russians give up for now on well," 5/29/13,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/cuba-oil-idUSL2N0EA00W20130529)//AM
A number of factors are working against Cuba's oil hopes, among them the political and logistical
difficulties imposed by the long-standing U.S. trade embargo against the island. The embargo makes it
difficult to find rigs that do not violate its limitations on the use of U.S. technology in Cuba and, according to
experts, adds an estimated 20 percent to costs because everything in the project has to be shipped in from distant, non-U.S.
Sources. There is also Cuba's history of failed wells, which makes it hard to compete for the oil industry's
interest in a world where there are many other areas with proven oil reserves."It is very difficult today with other opportunities out
there for a major oil company to justify going to Cuba and spending what will certainly be over $100 million in
areas where it is yet to be proven they have recoverable reserves," said Jorge Pinon, an expert on Cuban oil at the
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy at the University of Texas in Austin. "It is going to be extremely challenging (for
Cuba)," he said.
Geological difficulties make it impossible to drill efficiently—even then, finding and
producing offshore oil will take years
Gerken 12 – Deputy Green Editor at The Huffington Post (James, “Cuba Offshore Drilling: Another Well Declared A Failure,” Huffington
Post, 8/6/12, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/06/cuba-offshore-drilling-failure_n_1746576.html)//Bwang
HAVANA, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Cuba's
hopes for energy independence suffered another blow on Monday when its state
offshore oil well was not successful.¶ Cubapetroleo said the well drilled by Malaysia's stateowned Petronas in partnership with Russia's Gazprom Neft found oil but in a geological formation so tightly
compacted that oil and gas could not flow through it in "significant quantities."¶ "It cannot be qualified
as a commercial discovery," the company said in an announcement in the Communist Party newspaper Granma.¶ It was the
third failed well in three attempts in Cuba's part of the Gulf of Mexico, where the communist country has said it
may have 20 billion barrels of oil. ¶ The government led by President Raul Castro needs the oil to free it from dependence on
oil company said the island's latest
socialist ally Venezuela, which under an oil-for-services deal sends Cuba about 115,000 barrels of oil daily.¶ With Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez battling cancer and facing re-election in October, the future of his oil largess for Cuba is uncertain.¶ Cuba produces about 50,000 barrels
a day from onshore wells, but it consumes an estimated 147,000 barrels daily and refines most of the rest for sale to other Caribbean
countries.¶ Spanish oil company Repsol hit a dry hole in Cuban waters in May and said it would likely pull out of the country after 12 years of
operations, two unsuccessful wells and expenditures of $125 million.¶ Its
first well, drilled in 2004, found oil but, like the
Petronas well, was deemed not commercially viable.¶ Repsol's recent well, drilled north of Havana in partnership
with Norway's Statoil and ONGC Videsh, a unit of India's ONGC, found no hydrocarbons at all.¶ Cubapetroleo said the Petronas well,
completed on July 31, was drilled west of the Cuban capital in 7,408 feet (2,258 meters) of water, much deeper than Cuban and Petronas
officials previously had suggested.¶ EXTENDED OIL ZONE¶ It said the oil that was found "could extend to other zones" in the four offshore blocks
leased by the two companies and perhaps beyond.¶ Petronas and Gazprom would continue to study data collected during the drilling and
conduct more seismic studies, Cubapetroleo said.¶ Despite the three failed wells, Cuba oil expert Jorge Pinon at the University of Texas in Austin
said it
is likely Cuba does have offshore oil, but that finding and producing it will take years.¶ "The bottom line
is that Cuba is not going to get any economic benefit from an oil find any time soon. This is a long-term
exercise - it's going to take a long time to get results," he said.
Embargo makes foreign drilling in Cuba nearly impossible
Kramer 12 – Russian correspondent for the New York Times, “Russian Oil Drilling Off Cuba Is Delayed by Old Embargo,” NYT, 7/12/12,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/russian-company-delays-cuban-oil-exploration-plans.html?_r=0#h[MARMAR])//Bwang
MOSCOW — A
Russian oil company will delay drilling its first exploratory well off the northern coast of Cuba, about 180 miles
from Florida, after apparently struggling to find a drilling rig that would not violate a United States embargo.¶ The
Russian company, Zarubezhneft, said in a statement on Wednesday that it had planned to drill in August but now planned to start in
November.¶ Finding
rigs can be a challenge for oil companies operating in Cuba. To avoid violating the trade embargo
the United States imposed on Cuba 50 years ago, rigs can have only a small portion of their parts
manufactured in the United States.
Drilling is not inevitable—past failures ensure a long intermission
Coronel 13 – Part of the Board of directors of Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA), has had a long and distinguished career in the international
petroleum industry, including in the USA, Europe, Venezuela and Indonesia. He is an author, public policy expert and contributor to SFPPR News
& Analysis; author of the study "Corruption, Mismanagement and Abuse of Power in Hugo Chavez''s Venezuela," was a member of the Board of
Directors of Petroleos de Venezuela from 1976-79 and, as president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida, was the Venezuelan representative to
Transparency International (Gustavo, “Cuban Oil Prospects Revisited,” Futuro de Cuba, 6/18/13,
http://www.futurodecuba.org/cuban_oil_prospects_revisited_th.htm)//Bwang
During the last 3 years, four exploratory wells were drilled by different oil companies, including Spain’s Repsol,
the Malaysian oil company PETRONAS, Petroleos de Venezuela and the Russian company Zarubezhneft. The four wells have been
unsuccessful, although we have little or no details of the results. Whatever oil was found proved to be of low quality
and the rocks found by the drill had poor reservoir characteristics. This scarcity of information is not uncommon when
dealing with exploratory wells, since the initial data obtained from an area has to be analyzed carefully in order to see what the real prospects
of that area might be and to decide if further efforts are justified.¶ Oil experts in the region such as a former head of Amoco Latin America,
Jorge Piñon, currently at the University of Texas, correctly pointed out that this first effort is just the initial chapter of a story that will likely
continue. However, the initial results do not bode well for the Cuban oil industry. International oil companies will not be eager to spend great
sums of money to develop oil resources that could only be significant enough to satisfy the Cuban domestic market. The results obtained by the
four wells drilled definitely tend to lower the expectations of major findings.¶ SPAIN’S REPSOL¶ Repsol’s president, Antonio Brufau, has recently
announced that they will probably stop prospecting for oil in Cuban territory after its unsuccessful, costly, dry well. They had drilled another dry
hole in the area in 2010.¶ MALAYSIA’S PETRONAS¶ Petronas drilled its exploratory well in association with Russia’s Gazprom. The terse
information given out about the results of this well came from the official Cuban newspaper Granma, which read, “Analysis of the findings
revealed an “active petroleum system that could extend to other parts of the four blocks contracted by PC Gulf [Petronas] and Gazpromneft,
and even beyond their limits … Nevertheless, at that point the rocks are very compact and do not have the capacity to deliver significant
quantities of petroleum and gas… so it cannot be qualified as a commercial discovery.”" This confirms the rocks lacked sufficient porosity and
permeability to allow oil production.¶ PETROLEOS DE VENEZUELA¶ The third unsuccessful well was drilled by the Venezuelan state-owned
company, Petroleos de Venezuela. Again, scant information was provided by Granma, as follows: “The technical information obtained is very
valuable and will allow PDVSA to continue its efforts later on.” It is believed that the
oil found was of poor quality and
reservoir rocks had poor permeability. The original budget for this well was $40 million but its final cost was probably much
higher. This was the last well in which the Chinese-built drilling rig Scarabeo 9 participated. The rig, owned by the Italian company Saipem SpA,
has now moved to Western Africa.¶ ZARUBEZHNEFT¶ The
fourth dry well offshore Cuba was drilled by this Russian company using a
drilled to a depth of some 21,000 feet and was interrupted
after five months or so, due to “geological problems” of an unspecified nature. The rig has since been moved outside of Cuban
territorial waters.¶ Will oil exploration continue in Cuban waters?¶ The poor results of these four wells, in which the companies
invested an estimated $250 million, if not more, strongly suggest that there will be a long intermission in the search for
offshore oil in Cuba. Repsol has practically stated that it will not return. Politics could have played a role in this decision, since Cuba
smaller rig, the Songa Mercur, owned by Songa Offshore. The well was
endorsed the action of the Argentinian government to expropriate Repsol’s shares in YPF, the oil company Repsol owned jointly with the
government.
There’s no oil to be spilled anyway – their estimates are idealistic at best
BMI 13 – (Business Model International, “Cuba,” Americas Oil and Gas, August 2013, Issue 87, Proquest)//Bwang
Zarubezhneft, a Russian state-owned oil company, has announced it will temporarily halt efforts to spud a 6,500 metre
(m) well in Cuba's prospective offshore. The latest news is a setback to efforts to assess the country's
offshore potential. It comes after technical setbacks caused Zarubezhneft and its partner national oil company (NOC) Cubapetroleo to
rethink previous plans. Drilling will now move in two stages, with exploration on Block L to restart in 2014.¶ Although operations will restart
next year, the hiatus will end the only active hunt for oil in Cuban waters. Seismic surveys are under way by Malaysian NOC Petronas, and
Venezuela's PdVSA is considering further drilling, but to date success in Cuban waters has been hard to come by, with an exploration track
record mired by a series of dusters over recent years:¶ • 2004: Repsol deems Yamagua well on Block N29 noncommercial;¶ • May 2012: Repsol
exits Cuba after the Jaguey wildcat well ¶ on Block N26 deemed non-commercial;¶ • Nov 2012: PdVSA's 1X exploration well in Cuban waters
yields non-commercial results.¶ This
failure to uncover commercial reserves comes despite sizable estimates of
the island's offshore oil potential. Initial government estimates of Cuba's Gulf of Mexico (GoM) potential
suggested in- place resources of 20bn barrels (bbl) of oil; however, these figures were revised down in
2011 to 5-9bn bbl. The US Geological Survey (USGS) is on the lower end, pointing to potential in-place
reserves of 5bn bbl, although the estimate does not cover the entirety of Cuba's GoM acreage.
No risk of a spill – companies are going elsewhere
Gibson 13 has been the Sun-Sentinel's Washington bureau chief
for 25 years, (William E., "Companies abandon search for oil in Cuba's
deep water," 4/14/13, http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-04-14/news/fl-cuban-oil-drilling-retreat-20130414_1_jorge-pi-north-coast-cubanofficials)//AM
WASHINGTON — After spending nearly $700 million during a decade, energy
companies from around the world have all
but abandoned their search for oil in deep waters off the north coast of Cuba near Florida, a blow to the Castro
regime but a relief to environmentalists worried about a major oil spill.¶ Decisions by Spain-based Repsol
and other companies to drill elsewhere greatly reduce the chances that a giant slick along the Cuban
coast would ride ocean currents to South Florida, threatening its beaches, inlets, mangroves, reefs and multibillion-dollar
tourism industry .¶ The Coast Guard remains prepared to contain, skim, burn or disperse a potential slick. And
Cuban officials still yearn for a lucrative strike that would prop up its economy. A Russian company , Zarubezhneft, is drilling an exploratory
well in shallower waters hugging the Cuban shoreline south of the Bahamas.¶ But though some oil has been found offshore, exploratory
drilling in deep waters near currents that rush toward Florida has failed to reveal big deposits that would
be commercially viable to extract, discouraging companies from pouring more money into the search.¶ "Those
companies are saying, 'We cannot spend any more capital on this high-risk exploration. We'd rather go
to Brazil; we'd rather go to Angola; we'd rather go to other places in the world where the technological
and geological challenges are less,'" said Jorge Piñon, an oil-industry analyst at theUniversity of Texas who consults with U.S. and
Cuban officials as well as energy companies.
Cuba’s oil won’t be drilled for decades – high risk, low profit area
Reuters 12 ("Drilling rig leaves Cuba, taking oil hopes with it," 11/14/12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/14/cuba-oil-rigidUSL1E8MEHET20121114)//AM
Other companies
including Angola's Sonangol, India's ONGC and Petrovietnam hold offshore exploration
leases in Cuba, but none are known to have any imminent drilling plans.¶ Jorge Pinon, a Cuba oil expert
at the University of Texas in Austin, said it could be a decade or more before anyone takes another chance on Cuba's deepwater
fields.¶ "This deal is done. It's going to take a long time before the next one," he said. "You could even be
looking at 15 to 20 years if you put it all together."¶ He said the difficult geology encountered by Repsol
and Petronas is discouraging, as is the fact that companies must pass through the crucible of long-hostile
U.S.-Cuba relations.¶ The five-decade-long U.S. trade embargo against the island 90 miles (145 km) away makes it
difficult to find a suitable drilling rig for Cuba. Would-be drillers face political pressure from U.S.
opponents of the Cuban government.¶ "It's a difficult, tendentious process. There are a lot of other places in the
world today where oil companies can go to explore - Brazil, Angola, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, for example
- so Cuba has lost its place in the pecking order," Pinon said.¶ Cuba's next best hope now lies with Russia's Zarubezhneft,
which soon will begin drilling in shallower water about 200 miles (320 km) east of Havana.¶
The embargo delays and makes it near impossible to drill in Cuba
Bolstad 11 – Environment, food safety and agriculture reporter for McClatchy Newspapers (Erika, “Cuba
shows U.S. its response plans in case of oil spill,” McClatchy, 12/12/11,
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/12/12/132877/cuba-shows-us-its-response-plans.html#.Ud75vm1Fsk)//Bwang
*Note: Repsol left due to geological problems there
Although U.S. officials say they're not actively working to keep Cubans from drilling in their own waters,
the Cuba embargo that's been in place since the 1960s may have slowed things down.
Repsol had to find an oil rig made from fewer than 10 percent U.S. components — not an easy task.
Although few rigs are made in the United States, many components of them are, including software and
blowout preventers.
The rig, which is owned by a subsidiary of the Italian oil company Eni, will be used next by a rotation of state-owned oil companies: Petronas, a
Malaysian company, and the Oil and Natural Gas Corp., an Indian company that will be partnering with Russia's Gazprom.
"That rig was custom-built to be sure that it met the embargo limitations," said Jorge Pinon, a former Amoco
executive and a visiting research fellow with Florida International University's Latin American and Caribbean Center's Cuban Research Institute.
"That's why it's taken so long, over the last three years, for international oil companies to be able to drill
in Cuba."
Pinon and other experts in Cuba's drilling and regulatory abilities remain concerned that the U.S. government hasn't spoken with
the state-owned oil giants that will be leasing the rig after Repsol to drill in Cuban waters.
2nc status quo solves
Status quo solves – the US has already quietly authorized companies to respond to
spills
Bloomberg 11 ("Cuba oil drilling tests U.S. on protecting Florida or embargo," 12/9/11, http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/12/09/cuba-oildrilling-tests-u-s-on-protecting-florida-or-embargo/)//AM
U.S. officials say they are doing all they can to ensure safe drilling off Cuba.¶ “We are quite focused, and
have been for many, many months” on “doing anything within our power to protect U.S. shores and U.S.
¶
coastline,” Tommy Beaudreau, director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, an industry regulator, said in a Nov. 29 interview at
Bloomberg’s Washington office. Wild Well Control¶ The
administration has issued some licenses to U.S. companies to
respond to a spill in Cuban waters, Mark Toner, a spokesman for the State Department, said in an e-mail. He
didn’t say how many have been approved, and the Commerce and Treasury departments didn’t respond to e-mailed requests for comment.¶
Wild Well Control Inc. of Houston is one permit recipient, according to Hunt of the drilling contractors’
trade group. The company didn’t respond to e-mails and phone calls seeking comment.¶ “Helix plans to build a new subsea containment
cap to safeguard drilling operations in Cuba,” Cameron Wallace, a spokesman for that company said in an e-mail about its request for U.S.
licenses. “The cap and associated equipment will be staged at a U.S. port near to the drilling site to minimize response time.”
2nc plan can’t solve spills
US oil drilling doesn’t solve – still risks spills
Quintero 12 Director of Latino Advocacy, Natural Resources Defense Council [NRDC] (Adrianna, "A New Cuban Crisis Threatens Florida's
Coasts," 2/3/12, http://vocesverdes.org/a-new-cuban-crisis-threatens-floridas-coasts/)//AM
The risks of drilling are real and not limited to drilling done by countries who we don’t play well with.
Yes, the dangers of a spill in Cuba are real and out of our hands, but even where U.S. drilling is
concerned , the president’s National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore
Drilling concluded the oil industry lacked the kind of safety culture that could prevent another disaster.
And even here, the government lacks the authority and resources necessary to police the industry. We cannot
waste another opportunity to take measures to ensure the safety and well being of our communities by holding polluters and policy makers
accountable.
Oil coop can’t solve spills – Cuba won’t tell us in time, and won’t affect overall
relations
Padgett 12 WLRN-Miami Herald News' Americas correspondent covering Latin America and the Caribbean from Miami. He has covered
Latin America for almost 25 years, for Newsweek as its Mexico City bureau chief from 1990 to 1996, and for Time as its Latin America bureau
chief, first in Mexico from 1996 to 1999 and then in Miami, where he also covered Florida and the U.S. Southeast, from 1999 to 2013. (Tim,
"The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms Length Oer Spill Prevention," Time, 1/27/12,
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105598,00.html)//AM
A rigid U.S. reluctance to engage communist Cuba is of course only half the problem. Another is
Havana's notorious, Soviet-style secrecy — which some fear "could override the need to immediately
pick up the phone," as one environmentalist confides, if and when a spill occurs. As a result, some are also petitioning
Washington to fund AUVs (autonomous underwater vehicles) that marine biologists use to detect red tides, and which could also be used to
sniff out oil spills in the Straits.¶ What experts on both sides of the Straits hope is that sea currents will carry any oil slick directly out into the
Atlantic Ocean. But that's wishful
thinking. So probably is the notion that U.S.-Cuba cooperation on offshore drilling
can be duplicated on other fronts. Among them are the embargo, including the arguably unconstitutional ban on U.S.
travel to Cuba, which has utterly failed to dislodge the Castro regime but which Washington keeps in place for fear of offending CubanAmerican voters in swing-state Florida; and
many call questionable spying charges.
cases like that of Alan Gross, a U.S. aid worker imprisoned in Cuba since 2009 on what
2nc biotech da
bioterror impact
Bioterror is possible, probable and worse than nuclear war—advances in biotech key
to solve
Maurer 07 Stephen M. Maurer, J.D. Director of the Goldman School Project at the University of California, Berkeley on Information
Technology and Homeland Security LIFEBOAT FOUNDATION BIOSHIELD HTTP://LIFEBOAT.COM/EX/BIO.SHIELD 2007
The new realities of terrorism and suicide bombers pull us one step further. How would we react to the
devastation caused by a virus or bacterium or other pathogen unleashed not by the forces of nature, but
intentionally by man? No intelligence agency, no matter how astute, and no military, no matter how powerful and dedicated,
can assure that a small terrorist group using readily available equipment in a small and apparently innocuous setting
cannot mount a first-order biological attack. With the rapid advancements in technology, we are rapidly moving
from having to worry about state-based biological programs to smaller terrorist-based biological
programs. It's possible today to synthesize virulent pathogens from scratch, or to engineer and
manufacture prions that, introduced undetectably over time into a nation's food supply, would after a
long delay afflict millions with a terrible and often fatal disease. It's a new world. Though not as initially dramatic
as a nuclear blast, biological warfare is potentially far more destructive than the kind of nuclear attack feasible at
the operational level of the terrorist. And biological war is itself distressingly easy to wage. It would be more cost effective if those
funding the BioShield set specific goals and gave prize money to the people/organizations that accomplished them than simply funding research
without such goals. We propose that we take the measure of this threat and make preparations today to engage it with the force and
knowledge adequate to throw it back wherever and however it may strike. It is time to accelerate the development of antiviral and
antibacterial technology for the human population. The way to combat this serious and ever-growing threat is to develop broad tools to destroy
viruses and bacteria. We have tools such as those based on RNA interference that can block gene expression. We can now sequence the genes
of a new virus in a matter of days, so our goal is within reach! We call for the creation of new technologies and the enhancement of existing
technologies to increase our abilities to detect, identify, and model any emerging or newly identified infective agent, present or future, natural
we need to accelerate the expansion of our capacity to engineer vaccines for immunization,
to manufacture, distribute, and
administer what we need in a timely and effective manner that protects us all from the threat of
bioengineered malevolent viruses and microbial organisms. Time is running out.
or otherwise —
and explore the feasibility of other medicinals to cure or circumvent infections, and
ethanol impact
Cuba’s investing in ethanol now—that’s key to their energy independence
Ryan 06
Research Associate at Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Danielle Ryan, NOVEMBER 17, 2006 “Cuban Oil and Ethanol Could Prosper in
Havana’s Hunt for Energy Supplies” : http://www.coha.org/cuban-oil-and-ethanol-could-prosper-in-havana%E2%80%99s-hunt-for-energysupplies/#sthash.mjXo0rh1.dpuf) //KY
The Castro regime has long been aware of the decreasing role to be played by fossil fuels and the importance of cutting greenhouse gas
emissions. As a result, the
government is now promoting alternative energy resources, such as the island's nascent sugar
ethanol industry, which focuses on producing an alcohol-based substance made from fermenting and distilling sugarcane. Cuba can offer
investment opportunities in its once highly developed sugar sector, which has fallen upon hard times as a result of mismanagement and
insufficient inputs, as well as proper maintenance. Cuba's 500 hundred year-old sugar industry was once the world's largest, but since 2003 it
has dismantled 71 out of its 156 sugar factories on the grounds of obsolescence and inefficiencies. A nation that once exported 10 million tons
of sugar per year is projecting that only 1.5 million tons will be produced in 2006, of which a meager 1 million tons will be exported. Despite
the recent down-scaling of the sugar industry, the daily Jamaican Gleaner reported that high sugar prices in the world market
could lead to a revenue bonanza for Cuba. Not surprisingly, this has led to the government's decision to bolster
the industry. Luis Galvez of the Cuban Research Institute for Sugar Cane Derivatives says Cuba has 17 distilleries with the potential
of producing up to 180 million liters of ethanol annually. Given the relative strengths that Cuba's sugar
industry possesses, ethanol is perhaps the most logical solution to Havana's search for energy alternatives .
Use of the product is increasing around the world, since it reduces the per gallon cost of gasoline and the consumption level of fossil fuels.
Beginning with the Brazilian ethanol initiative to develop commercial amounts of the fuel by the 1970s, nations around the world, such as
Canada, the U.S., China and Australia are now starting to mix gas with ethanol as well. Considering
highly motivated sugar and
oil prices and pressure from environmental groups to curb greenhouse emissions,
ethanol production will certainly emerge as a prosperous industry, putting Cuba in a front-seat position to reap huge
corn producers, excessively volatile
profit.
2nc democracy da
Increasing Cuba oil trade prevents democratization, destroys relations and causes
Dutch disease
Orro 9 (Roberto, Board memeber of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE), member of the Puerto Rico Chamber of
Commerce, “ Petrolism In Cuba And Implications Of U.S. Investment In The Cuban Oil Sector” 2009
http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume19/pdfs/orro.pdf) //KY
As researchers have shown, oil starts its harmful work from the moment significant oil wealth is discovered. The
mere expectations
that U.S. firms will enter the Cuban market will abort timid attempts to liberalize the economy. The arrival
of U.S. firms to explore and drill offshore in Cuban waters will embolden political hardliners , those who
adamantly refuse any kind of small moves towards democracy and market economy. The advocates of market reforms—who now
can barely make a comment in favor of liberalization— will be left in a much weaker position. There is an interesting argument in
favor of large oil production in Cuba. The idea is that it will free the Cuban leadership from the influence of Hugo Chávez. The implicit
assumption is that energy self sufficiency will ease conditions for the Cuban government to undertake reforms. Another implicit and wrong
assumption in this argument is that Venezuela is responsible for the stagnation of the Cuban economy. It is worth being reminded that
Venezuela did not impose such dependence upon Cuba. Cuba rather sought it, the same way it did with the former Soviet Union. The question
is not whether oil comes from Venezuela or from the Cuban offshore. What is indeed relevant is that too much oil under the control of a nondemocratic government is a boomerang. As
long as oil supply to Cuba keeps fueling petrolism, hopes for economic
liberalization will become more distant. As many studies have documented, oil booms in poor economies
thwart economic diversification and the development of secondary and tertiary activities. Cuba will not be the
exception.
Oil exports strengthen communist regime—turns case
Omstad 09 senior international affairs and diplomacy author for US News. (Thomas Omestad, 4/1/2009, “Cuba's Hopes for Major Oil
Discoveries”, U.S. News & World Report Pg. 50 Vol. 146 No. 3) //KY
In Cuba, meanwhile, expectations run high that oil finds will help lift the struggling state-run economy. "It will give Cuba the capabilities of
developing its economy very quickly," predicts Josefina Vidal Ferreiro, a senior Foreign Ministry official. "It will give us a lot of independence."
The other implication is that hard-currency
flows from oil exports will strengthen the ruling Communist Party to
withstand whatever pressures remain from Washington. Cuba's needs. Cuba's leaders have been acutely concerned about
energy dependence on others. The collapse of the Soviet Union, once the island's patron and energy donor, crippled Cuba's economy and
spawned an energy crisis in the early 1990s. Daniel Erikson, an analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington and author of The Cuba
Wars, says Cuba's pursuit of offshore oil reflects wariness about its past energy dependence on the Soviets and today's on Hugo Chávez's
Venezuela. "They realize that nothing lasts forever," he says. It remains unclear, though, whether future oil wealth will hasten--or retard--the
cautious moves toward economic reform under Raúl Castro. Oil revenues could cushion a broader but painful shift away from state direction of
all major economic activity. By
easing the hardships of life in Cuba, oil wealth could reduce pressures for political
change. It could even reinforce the status quo. "Resource revenues would feed the political patronage
machine," reasons Archibald Ritter, a Cuba expert at Carleton University in Ottawa.
2nc no aid shutdown
No changes in oil policy—regional influence
Oxford, 13
Analysis and Advisory Board, Oxford Analytica’s global contributor network of scholar experts to write in-depth analysis.
(OxResearch Daily Brief Service, Jun 11, 2013 “VENEZUELA: No rapid shift in oil policy on the cards”
https://www.oxan.com/display.aspx?ItemID=DB183701) //KY
Chavez's use of oil wealth to buy regional influence through PetroCaribe is continuing (see VENEZUELA: Maduro focuses on
foreign policy - May 22, 2013); Honduras and Guatemala have recently joined the programme. However, mounting domestic economic and
financial pressures may erode the favourable aspects of these arrangements.
Cuba, which depends on Venezuela for about two-thirds of its
daily oil consumption, will also be relieved by Maduro's election ( see CUBA: Government seeks to cut dependency on Venezuela June 5, 2013). Maduro's recent visit to Brazil produced the required public endorsement from President Dilma Rousseff. However, Brazil
remains the region's economic heavyweight and Rousseff appears to be continuing her predecessor's policy of 'managing' Venezuela ( see
LATIN AMERICA: Brazil recovering regional protagonism - May 30, 2013). CONCLUSION: The succession
introduces a period of
uncertainty and thus high risk, although early signs are that major changes in oil policy are not imminent. This
will be watched closely by governments including Cuba, Russia and China with an interest in policy continuity. Oil majors will also be monitoring
developments, but for signs of a more attractive investment regime emerging. With global oil demand relatively weak, other major oilproducing countries may quietly welcome a continuation of 'Chavista' oil policies and Venezuela's under-performing output.
2nc econ
Removing the embargo won’t solve – reforms in Cuba are a prerequisite to economic
growth--empirics
Powell, 10 freelance writer for news sites (Michael Orion Powell, 4/3/10, http://blog.heritage.org/2010/04/03/cuba-change-is-not-onesided/) KD
Lacey’s post-embargo Cuba sure sounds wonderful, but it forgets about the actions that must first
be taken by Cuba. While
Soviet Union and China did not open thanks to American diplomacy
alone. Actions taken by those countries’ respective leadership were key. Gorbachev engaged in a policy
of glasnost (“openness”) that played an invaluable role in the dissolution of the Soviet empire. Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping
opened his country to investment and the start of private competition (with countries like Singapore as a model).
There’s little sign of such a shift in Cuba. While Cuban President Raul Castro has made signs of being willing to talk to the United
States, those moves have been interfered with by Raul’s brother Fidel.¶ A freer Cuba would be beneficial to everyone. It is
important, however, to remember that this is a transformation that can only happen through a change
in Cuba’s policies, toward a more pluralist, democratic political system and more open economy. It is not a transformation that can
engagement by the United States was useful, the
happen simply through a change in our policies toward Cuba.¶
Drilling is currently impossible and that’s good – forces liberalization and economic
reforms in Cuba
Miroff 12 (Nick, "Cuba: The revolution will not be energized," 11/4/12,
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/cuba/121103/castro-offshore-oil-exploration-gulf-venezuela-chavez)//AM
But although
Cuba and its partners have the will to keep digging, they won’t have a rig, oil industry
experts say.¶ The rig they’ve been using — the Chinese-built, Italian-owned Scarabeo 9 — is departing for most promising
waters in Africa, according to experts consulted by Reuters.¶ At a rental cost of more than $500,000 a day, Scarabeo 9 is the only rig
in the world built to comply with US trade sanctions against Cuba that mandate no more than 10 percent American
technology may be used.¶ Without the Scarabeo 9, says former oil executive Jorge Pinon, Cuba will be “out of the ‘game’
for a long time with no ‘shovel.’”¶ Cuba’s best prospects for developing new oil resources now rest with Russian state firm
Zarubezhneft, which has plans to explore in shallower waters using a Norwegian-built platform. But that rig will operate in an area of the Gulf
that offers far poorer prospects for a quality find, and there has been no confirmation that it will arrive this month as previously announced.¶
Without an oil find to give Cuba a quick financial boost, communist authorities may need to look
onshore for new economic prospects, further liberalizing the island’s small private sector and offering
bigger incentives to foreign companies that might invest in agriculture, tourism and other proven
moneymakers. ¶
Drilling isn’t inevitable – Cuba’s economy won’t collapse, the decline will just force
reforms – that’s good
Krauss and Cave 12 has been a correspondent for The New York Times since 1990. He currently is a national business
correspondent based in Houston, covering energy. Before working at The Times, he worked as a foreign correspondent for The
Wall Street Journal and was the Edward R. Murrow fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is author of “Inside Central
America: Its People, Politics and History, AND foreign correspondent for The New York Times, based in Mexico City (Clifford AND
Damien, "Cuba's Prospects for an Oil-Fueled Economic Jolt Falter With Departure of Rig," 11/9/12,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/world/americas/rigs-departure-to-hamper-cubas-oil-prospects.html?_r=0)//AM
HOUSTON — Cuba’s
hopes of reviving its economy with an oil boom have produced little more than three
dry holes, persuading foreign oil companies to remove the one deepwater rig able to work in Cuban
waters so it could be used for more lucrative prospects elsewhere.¶ The rig, which was built in China to get around the
United States trade embargo, is expected to depart in the next few weeks. With no other rigs available for deepwater
exploration, that means Cuba must now postpone what had become an abiding dream: a windfall that
would save Cuba’s economy and lead to a uniquely Cuban utopia where the island’s socialist system was paid for by oil
sales to its capitalist neighbors.¶ “The Cuban oil dream is over and done with, at least for the next five years,” said
Jorge Piñon, a former BP and Amoco executive who fled Cuba as a child but continues to brief foreign oil companies on Cuban oil prospects.
“The companies have better prospects by going to Brazil, Angola and the U.S. Gulf.”¶ The lack of a quick find comes at a difficult time for Cuba.
The effects of Hurricane Sandy, which destroyed more than 100,000 homes in eastern Cuba, are
weighing down an economy that remains moribund despite two years of efforts by the Cuban government to cut state
payrolls and cautiously encourage free enterprise on a small scale.¶ Cuba had hoped to become energy independent, after relying first on
Russia and now on Venezuela for most of its oil. But with
its drilling prospects dimming, experts say, Cuban officials
may be pushed to accelerate the process of economic opening. At the very least, it may embolden
members of the bureaucracy looking for broader or faster changes in the economy.¶ “This could
represent a crucial setback for the Cuban regime,” said Blake Clayton, an energy fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. In
the meantime, the government has mostly tried to put a positive spin on the disappointing drilling results and the decision of the rig operator
to lease in other waters. Granma, the Communist Party newspaper, reported last week that while Venezuela’s state oil firm had plugged its
hole because “it did not offer possibilities of commercial exploitation,” the drilling had obtained valuable geological information. The
Venezuelan firm was the last of three foreign oil companies to use the rig, after the Spanish company Repsol and the Malaysian company
Petronas.¶ The government said more exploration could be expected.¶ The potential for Cuba’s oil reserves, like nearly everything involving
Cuba, has been a matter of dispute. Cuban officials had predicted that oil companies would find 20 billion barrels of oil reserves off its northern
coast. The United States Geological Survey has estimated Cuban oil reserves at 5 billion barrels, one quarter of the Cuban estimate.¶ The bestcase scenario for production, according to some oil experts, would be for Cuba to eventually become a medium-size producer like Ecuador. But
as the three dry holes showed, far more exploration effort would be needed, and that presents a challenge for a country with limited resources
and the hurdle of American sanctions. There
are many offshore areas that are competing with Cuba for the
attention of oil companies, particularly off the coasts of South America and East and West Africa.¶ In Cuba’s
case, the American embargo makes it far more difficult for companies seeking to explore Cuban waters.
The Scarabeo 9, the rig set to depart, is the only one available that is capable of drilling in deep waters and complies with the embargo. To get it
built, Repsol, the Spanish oil giant, was forced to contract an Italian operator to build a rig in China to drill exploration wells.
Dual-Currency makes it impossible to solve the economy
Sweig and Bustamante, 13 Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations
and the author of Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know; a Ph.D. candidate in Latin American history at Yale University (Julia E. Sweig and
Michael J. Bustamante, July/August 2013, Foreign Affairs, “Cuba After Communism”,
http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/ehost/detail?vid=3&sid=2d854e83-f586-49a7-ac8dfdfa99a5a7a2%40sessionmgr110&hid=117&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=ofs&AN=88213870) KD
The island's dual-currency system makes the challenge all the more difficult. A byproduct of the circulation of U.S.
dollars in the 1990s -- first in the black market, then legally -- the Cuban convertible peso (CUC) today functions as the
currency of the tourist sector and is required for the purchase of many consumer items. For common Cuban citizens, the value of the
CUC is pegged to the dollar, with one CUC equal to 25 Cuban pesos (CUP), the currency in which most state workers are paid.
Consequently, citizens who receive hard currency from abroad or who earn money in CUC, such as workers who
collect tips from foreign tourists, enjoy much higher incomes than workers who rely solely on salaries paid in
CUP.¶ Even worse, the values of the CUC and the CUP are considered equal within and between state
enterprises. This bizarre accounting practice helped insulate CUP prices from inflation during the depths of the economic crisis that
followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, but today it makes it difficult for analysts and investors to estimate the
real costs of doing business on the island or the value of state companies. Economists agree that the least disruptive
way to move toward a single currency would be to gradually merge the two exchange rates in tandem with a steady rise in GDP and salaries
overall. But in the meantime, the
artificial one-to-one ratio within the state sector has the effect of overvaluing
the CUP'S international exchange rate and thus decreasing the competiveness of domestic goods.
Paradoxically, the dual-currency regime protects imports at the expense of domestic production.
Economic impact is empirically denied—health conditions actually improved
Schiffman 13 – Environmental journalist whose work has appeared in The Washington Post, NPR, and
The New York Times (Richard, “How Cubans' Health Improved When Their Economy Collapsed,” The
Atlantic, 4/18/13, http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/04/how-cubans-health-improvedwhen-their-economy-collapsed/275080/)//Bwang
When Cuba's benefactor, the Soviet Union, closed up shop in the early 1990s, it sent the Caribbean nation
into an economic tailspin from which it would not recover for over half a decade.¶ The biggest impact came from
the loss of cheap petroleum from Russia. Gasoline quickly became unobtainable by ordinary citizens in Cuba, and
mechanized agriculture and food distribution systems all but collapsed. The island's woes were compounded by the
Helms-Burton Act of 1996, which intensified the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba, preventing pharmaceuticals, manufactured goods, and food
imports from entering the country. During this so-called "special period" (from 1991 to 1995), Cuba teetered on the brink of famine. Cubans
survived drinking sugared water, and eating anything they could get their hands on, including domestic pets and the animals in the Havana
Zoo.¶ The
economic meltdown should logically have been a public health disaster. But a new study conducted
that the health of Cubans
actually improved dramatically during the years of austerity. These surprising findings are based on nationwide statistics
jointly by university researchers in Spain, Cuba, and the U.S. and published in the latest issue of BMJ says
from the Cuban Ministry of Public Health, together with surveys conducted with about 6,000 participants in the city of Cienfuegos, on the
southern coast of Cuba, between 1991 and 2011. The
data showed that, during the period of the economic crisis,
deaths from cardiovascular disease and adult-onset type 2 diabetes fell by a third and a half,
respectively. Strokes declined more modestly, and overall mortality rates went down.
2nc venezuela turn
NOTE: be careful not to double turn yourself with this and other offense in the file
Drilling shuts down Venezuelan aid and causes political instability
Hammond 12 former correspondent for Radio Free Europe and an energy market analyst. (Joseph, "There Will Be Blood," 11/3/12,
http://www.theeuropean-magazine.com/381-hammond-joseph/577-cubas-oil-industry-in-the-gulf-of-mexico)//AM
The Castroite regime’s closest ally, Hugo Chavez, faces trouble in his country’s 2012 Presidential Election. Indeed, the
Venezuelan
opposition frequently claims that Venezuela should end its oil shipments to Cuba. Even a modest
discovery of oil will put pressure on Hugo Chavez to end his subsidized provision of oil to the island.
While the Cuban economy is perhaps better positioned than it was in 1989 to deal with the economic
shock, the elderly political system is not. Venezuela has also worked to improve Cuba’s refinery capacity and again it should also
be pointed out that the Castro regime is already an oil producer. Cuba pumps roughly 50,000 barrels per day from onshore fields (a sum
roughly equivalent to the oil exports of Bahrain or Turkey). Culeba’s rulers hope to find as much as 20 billion barrels offshore. But the
US
Geological Survey has estimated that Cuba is likely to find less than 4.6 billion barrels. This would put
Cuba in roughly the same tier as Egypt and Indonesia in terms of total proven reserves. Adding Cuba’s
name to a list that includes Egypt and Indonesia might be an ominous sign for Cuba’s government. Both
Indonesia and Egypt of course have recent popular uprisings that toppled decades of one party rule. Either way,
the discovery of oil for Cuba could easily prove a double edged sword.
2nc at bioD impact
Hurricanes mean in the biodiversity impact is empirically denied – species are resilient
Boom 12 – Director, Caribbean Biodiversity Program, and Bassett Maguire Curator of Botany, The New
York Botanical Garden (PhD Brian M., “Biodiversity without Borders,” Science Diplomacy, 8/14/12,
http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/article/2012/biodiversity-without-borders)//Bwang
The most urgent environmental problems requiring bilateral action are broadly classified as disasters—both those that
occur naturally and those that are man-made. Hurricanes are the clearest examples of shared natural disasters. During the twentieth
century, 167 hurricanes struck the U.S. mainland. Of these, 62 were major (categories 3, 4, or 5 on the SaffirSimpson scale). During the same period, 36 hurricanes, half of which were major, made landfall over Cuba. Because
many hurricanes—Katrina and Ike being twenty-first century examples—strike both countries, there exists a shared need after such disasters to
respond to the negative effects, including environmental problems created by rain, wind, and storm surges.
Most major
hurricanes occurring in the Caribbean during the past century have resulted in documented
extensive perturbations of shallow-water marine ecosystems, particularly to coral reefs, seagrass beds,
and coastal mangroves.2 Aside from physical damage to such ecosystems from more turbulent water,
hurricanes can also negatively impact water quality. On land, hurricane damage to ecosystems can be even more severe than
in the ocean. For example, damaged native vegetation will possibly be more prone to colonization by exotic,
noxious species such as Australian pine and Brazilian pepper.3 While Cuban and U.S. scientists have shared motivation to assess, monitor,
and remediate the marine and terrestrial ecosystems that are damaged by hurricanes, they currently cannot do so.
Multiple alt causes to biodiversity in the region
Boom 12 – Director, Caribbean Biodiversity Program, and Bassett Maguire Curator of Botany, The New
York Botanical Garden (PhD Brian M., “Biodiversity without Borders,” Science Diplomacy, 8/14/12,
http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/article/2012/biodiversity-without-borders)//Bwang
These ecosystems are threatened increasingly by habitat modification, the impact of tourism,
overexploitation of marine fishes and other commercial seafood resources, the ramifications of climate
change and rising sea levels, and pollution from land-based sources (e.g., unsustainable agricultural and forestry
practices) and ocean-based sources (e.g., cruise ship waste). Increasing tourism especially threatens coral reefs.
Despite some positive measures taken by the cruise industry in recent years, more cruise ships in the region still mean
greater potential stresses to the marine and coastal environments. In addition to these and other shared ecosystems,
many marine and terrestrial species are shared by Cuba and the United States. Examples include migratory, invasive, endangered, and disease
vector species.
Invasive species kill native organisms that are critical to Cuba’s ecosystem
Boom 12 – Director, Caribbean Biodiversity Program, and Bassett Maguire Curator of Botany, The New
York Botanical Garden (PhD Brian M., “Biodiversity without Borders,” Science Diplomacy, 8/14/12,
http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/article/2012/biodiversity-without-borders)//Bwang
Invasive Species: Cuba and the United States share many of these problem organisms, which are among the
most significant threats to native species and to ecological and economic wellbeing. For example, Hydrilla
verticillata, an aggressive waterweed native to the Old World, displaces native aquatic plants and seriously
disrupts recreational uses of lakes and rivers in Cuba and the United States.8 Another example is the red
lionfish, which is native to the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans but was released into the Atlantic Ocean from a home
aquarium in Florida when Hurricane Andrew struck in 1992. Today, this venomous fish has spread along the
U.S. Atlantic Coast as far north as New York and into the Caribbean, including Cuban
creating major disruptions to coral reef ecosystems.9
waters, voraciously eating native fish and
cooperation advantage
1nc f/l
Alt cause to relations – Alan Gross
Thale 11 (Geoff, Program Director for the Washington Office on Latin America, “Tug of War on U.S-Cuba
Policy,” 4/6/11, http://www.wola.org/es/node/2429, MDM)
Carter insisted he wasn’t speaking on behalf of Washington, but his visit was read in Cuba as an attempt to open up channels for
communication and contact. Carter’s
productive trip signified a push toward improving relations between the
two countries.¶ However, just two days after Carter’s return, the Administration took a step backwards. The State
Department announced its intention to obligate $20 million to support very controversial “human rights
and civil society” programs in Cuba. The State Department obligated funds under Section 109 of the Helms-Burton legislation, the
stated purpose of which is to support groups on the island intent on regime change. So if Carter was signaling the possibilities
of better relations, the State Department did just the opposite. Rather than opting for productive dialogue, the U.S.
government’s announcement showed that hardliners still have a seat at the table in Washington policy making. The State Department’s timing
also suspiciously looks like a gambit to undercut efforts to improve relations.¶ In a further twist of fate, it is these
very “regime
change” programs that landed U.S. citizen Alan Gross in jail well over a year ago, a point which has thrown a
wrench in U.S.-Cuba relations. Part of the problem with the controversial “regime change” programs is that they actually put the
people who work on them at risk. When he was apprehended in Cuba, Alan Gross was working for a private contractor that received millions of
dollars from that Section 109 account. Under his subcontract, Gross was delivering satellite-linked communications equipment brought into the
country without a customs declaration. According to the State Department, Gross was officially delivering equipment to Jewish groups on the
island so that they could communicate with other Jewish communities abroad. Even though the U.S. government justifies these programs as
necessary to help build civil society capacity in Cuba, the Havana Jewish community leaders, with whom Carter met, already have internet
connections in the community center, and an active B’nai B’rith International Chapter. Those groups all denied any substantive contact with
Gross.¶ These programs funded under Section 109 should be canceled – they’ve been plagued by scandals and allegations of patronage since
they began in the 1990s, and most of the programs do more to provoke the Cuban government than they do to promote democracy. In times of
budget constraint it is worth recognizing these programs are quite expensive as well and the U.S. government has spent more than $150 million
on these programs over the last decade. The few effective programs – humanitarian support for the families of prisoners, some non-political
training programs for journalists, and others – could be carried out under other U.S. government auspices and without the taint of the regimechange philosophy that lurks behind Section 109 funding. These concerns were underscored by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman
John Kerry (D-MA) who immediately announced that he would put a hold on spending the funds until a “full review” of the program has been
conducted.¶ Ending
or substantially modifying the program might signal to Cuba that the Obama
Administration is serious about a new approach to Cuba, one that doesn’t take “regime change” as its
starting point. And in the context of such a shift the likelihood that Alan Gross would be pardoned or
paroled by Cuban authorities would increase.¶ Rather than canceling the program, though, the State Department announced
new funding for the program only days after Carter’s trip to Cuba and his public call for Gross to be released. ¶ The Gross issue has
stalled progress in other areas of U.S.-Cuban relations. In January the Obama Administration issued new
rules to ease restrictions on travel to Cuba but those rules have still not been implemented, and it’s
widely rumored that Gross’ continued detention is at least part of what’s holding them up.¶ It’s
unfortunate that, at a moment when Carter’s visit worked to open some space for movement in U.S.Cuban relations, the State Department announcement of new funding for “Cuba democracy” programs
appears to be pulling in the opposite direction
Latin America instability impacts empirically denied
Hartzell 2000 (Caroline A., 4/1/2000, Middle Atlantic Council of Latin American Studies Latin American Essays, “Latin America's civil wars:
conflict resolution and institutional change.” http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-28765765_ITM)
Latin America has been the site of fourteen civil wars during the post-World War II era, thirteen of which now have
ended. Although not as civil war-prone as some other areas of the world, Latin America has endured some extremely violent
and destabilizing intrastate conflicts. (2) The region's experiences with civil wars and their resolution thus may prove
instructive for other parts of the world in which such conflicts continue to rage. By examining Latin America's civil
wars in some depth not only might we better understand the circumstances under which such conflicts are ended but also the institutional
outcomes to which they give rise. More specifically, this paper focuses on the following central questions regarding Latin America's civil wars:
Has the resolution of these conflicts produced significant institutional change in the countries in which they were fought? What is the nature of
the institutional change that has taken place in the wake of these civil wars? What are the factors that are responsible for shaping post-war
institutional change?
Oil cooperation doesn’t solve relations
Bert and Clayton 12 US Coast Guard military fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations AND fellow for energy and national security at
the Council on Foreign Relations (Melissa AND Blake, "Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill," 3/7/12, Polivy Innovation Memorandum No. 15,
http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515?excerpt=0)//AM
However, taking
sensible steps to prepare for a potential accident at an oil well in Cuban waters would not
break new ground or materially alter broader U.S. policy toward Cuba. For years, Washington has worked with
Havana on issues of mutual concern. The United States routinely coordinates with Cuba on search and rescue
operations in the Straits of Florida as well as to combat illicit drug trafficking and migrant smuggling.
During the hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides Cuba with information on
Caribbean storms.¶ The recommendations proposed here are narrowly tailored to the specific challenges that a Cuban oil spill poses to
the United States. They would not help the Cuban economy or military. What they would do is protect U.S. territory and property from a
potential danger emanating from Cuba.¶
No narcotics in Cuba
Bureau Of International Narcotics And Law Enforcement Affairs, 13 (2013 International Narcotics Control Strategy
Report, 3/5/13, http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2013/vol1/204049.htm) KD
Despite its proximity to major transit routes for illegal drugs to the U.S. market, Cuba
is not a major consumer, producer, or
transit point of illicit narcotics. Cuba’s intensive security presence and bilateral interdiction efforts have
effectively reduced the available supply of narcotics on the island and prevented traffickers from
establishing a foothold. The Cuban Border Guard (TGF) maintains an active presence along Cuba’s coastal perimeter and
conducts maritime counternarcotics operations and coastal patrols. Drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) frequently
attempt to avoid Cuban and U.S. government counternarcotics patrol vessels and aircraft by skirting Cuba’s territorial waters.¶ Cuba’s domestic
drug production and consumption remain negligible as a result of active policing, harsh sentencing for drug offenses, and very low consumer
disposable income. Cuba’s counternarcotics efforts have prevented illegal narcotics trafficking from having a significant impact on the island.
An LNG explosion would do minimal damage-5 reasons
Lloyd's Register 04 – Leading participants in the safety and verification of LNG facilities around the world
(“Statement on LNG risks from Lloyd's Register North America, Inc.” 9-23-2004,
http://www.lr.org/News+and+Events/News+Archive/2004/Statement+on+LNG+risks+from+Lloyds+Register+North+America+Inc.htm) //KY
LNG. The real risks In the US, regulators and other interested parties have identified as key concerns the possibility of a terrorist attack involving
an LNG terminal or an LNG carrier, and the consequences for the surrounding population and infrastructure. Global terrorism is certainly a
major threat and all reasonable measures should and must be taken to mitigate the risks and consequences of any actions, however,
observers are incorrect if they believe that a terrorist attack on an LNG carrier would have
the impact of a nuclear explosion. There are several technical reasons which bear this out: 1. LNG is
transported globally in insulated tanks on specialised ships. These tanks provide four physical barriers
and two layers of insulation between the LNG and the outside environment. Further, the separation between the inner and
outer hulls of an LNG carrier is typically over two meters. These two factors combined mean that LNG cargo
carried at sea has a very high in-built level of protection from external blast sources. 2. In the event of an attack,
commentators and
even if a one-meter hole were to be formed in the inner hull, the resultant holes in the primary containment barrier would be significantly
smaller due to the increased separation distance from the blast source combined with the pressure absorption properties of the secondary
containment barrier and insulation materials. 3. It
is unrealistic to imagine that the entire cargo of any ship can be
instantaneously released. To mount an attack on an LNG carrier that would result in the instantaneous
release of all of its cargo would require the equivalent of a full scale military operation, not a clandestine
terrorist operation like those carried out against the USS Cole and the Limburg. 4. The idea that LNG carriers are potential
nuclear devices is erroneous. There is a lot of energy in LNG and natural gas, as in any hydrocarbon. However, the 'nuclear explosion'
statement describes the total energy an LNG carrier contains, not the rate at which the energy would be released in an incident. For example, a
lump of coal contains lots of energy, but when set on fire, its energy doesn't all come out instantly like a bomb. Instead, the coal burns over a
period of time releasing its energy as it goes. Similarly, LNG
carriers contain large quantities of energy, but the energy
can only be released slowly in the event of a spill or a fire. 5. An LNG spill in open air will not result in a bomb-like
explosion. This has been consistently demonstrated in experiments. Not everything that is ignited explodes like a bomb.
For example, when a match is lit, it burns but does not explode. Similarly, the natural gas vapour that could result from an LNG carrier spill also
falls under the category of substances that will burn but not explode like a bomb. Reason and caution Paul Huber, Director of LRNA, says:
"There are risks associated with the transport and storage of LNG, as there are with any hydrocarbon energy source, and these are precisely the
reasons that the LNG industry operates with extensive international and national regulations which govern the safety of LNG transport and
LNG shipping sector, which has an unblemished safety
record spanning 40 years - a track record which is unrivalled by any other maritime sector and most land-based industries. It should also
be remembered that LNG itself is one of the cleanest-burning and most environmentally friendly energy sources
storage. The effectiveness of these regulations is apparent in the
currently available on a global scale. "While the shadow of terrorism hangs over us, we have to do as much as we can to protect ourselves and
our borders, but it
is misleading to state, as some have, that an attack on an LNG carrier would be similar to a
nuclear event. It is difficult for us to know the rationale behind the assertion contained in the speech to
the Houston Forum, but it is clear that it is not supported by fact.
No bioterrorism and no impact---multiple obstacles
Stolar 6 Research Officer, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (*Alex Stolar: October 2006, “BIOTERRORISM AND US POLICY RESPONSES
ASSESSING THE THREAT OF MASS CASUALTY,” http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/1659566521IPCS-Special-Report-31.pdf,)//KY
Each of these steps presents significant hurdles for terrorists. Acquiring a strain of a Category A agent which
is significantly robust for storage, reproduction, transport, and dispersal, and which has the virulence to infect large numbers
to inflict mass casualties is very difficult. Likewise, growing, storing, and transporting biological agents requires
substantial financial, logistical, and technological resources, as well as highly trained scientists and technicians.
Most of all, according to William Patrick of the US Army Biological Warfare Laboratories, dissemination is the largest hurdle for
bioterrorism.4 Indeed, after devoting billions of dollars and years of research, dispersal is still a challenge before US and Russian biological
weapons scientists. It is unlikely, at this stage, that terrorists will have the means, sophistication, logistics, or
motivation to carry out a bioterrorist attack. Preparing biological agents for an attack is very hard and costly.
Despite spending millions of dollars, and several years of work, the Aum Shinrikyo cult was unable to develop an
effective biological weapon. Likewise, the 2001 Anthrax attacks in the United States involved very virulent Anthrax
spores, but only five persons were killed. More sophisticated spores and dispersal methods would be required for a mass causalty attack. As
Professor Milton Leitenberg notes, apart from the Rajneeshee cult attack in 1984, which sickened many, but killed none, “there
is
apparently no other ‘terrorist’ group that is known to have successfully cultured any pathogen.”5 Moreover,
a lingering question is, why would terrorists use bioweapons in an attack? Executing a biological weapon attack is difficult and
expensive, and does not suit the modus operandi of the sole group with the means to pursue
bioterrorism, Al Qaeda. At present, Al Qaeda favors simple attacks that generate great fear. 9/11 was executed with box
cutters; the Madrid train attacks with dynamite purchased from petty criminals6; the London 7/7 bombings utilized simple explosives that
could be fashioned with easily available materials and little expertise7; and the terrorists in the recent plot to bomb flights from London to the
US intended to use nail polish remover and hair bleach.8 Al Qaeda favors creating great fear at little cost. Why would it stray from this effective
formula to bioterrorism which is expensive and of questionable reliability?9 The unavoidable conclusion is that only a nation-state could
conduct a bioweapon attack. However, a
taboo against using biological weapons exists—not since World War II has
one state attacked another with biological weapons. Like non-state actors, states seem to prefer the lower costs and high
reliability of conventional weapons or even chemical weapons. Accordingly, it seems the threat of bioterrorism in the near
future is low. Neither terrorists nor states seem likely to use bioweapons for attack. Therefore, though possible,
it does not seem probable that a mass casualty bioterrorist attack will occur over the next five to ten
years. It is unlikely that states will use bioweapons against other states. It is equally unlikely that states will use a terrorist
organization as a conduit to attack another state. Only terrorist organizations, operating alone within a weak or failed state,
would develop bioweapons for an attack against a state. However, terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda presently lack the expertise, logistics,
and equipment for a bioterror attack. In the next five years, it is unlikely that terrorists will acquire such capabilities. Beyond that time frame,
what stands between terrorists and potent bioweapons are the policies of individual states and multilateral bioweapon non-proliferation
regimes. If
the policies of states and the relevant international regimes are robust, terrorists will be unable
to mount bioterror attacks. If, on the other hand, these policies and regimes are feeble, or even counterproductive, the threat of
bioterrorism will be real and grave. The
present circumstances provide great reason for optimism. Unlike nuclear
terrorism, there is no imminent threat of biological terrorism. houghtful and effective strategies implemented today can
eliminate this threat. How often is this case true in international security? How often can strategists say, this threat could be dangerous in a
decade, but is not dangerous now, and can be prevented forever if the right steps are taken? One would think that the world, and the US in
particular, would seize this opportunity to prevent this future threat; unfortunately, however, America’s biodefense policies since 9/11 are
hurting rather than helping efforts to minimize bioterrorism risks. Bioterrorism presents a grave, but not imminent threat to America and the
world. American leadership is needed to make sure terrorists never acquire the ability to execute a mass casualty bioattack. Unfortunately,
America’s biodefense strategies are currently increasing the risks of bioterrorism. In the years ahead, those American leaders responsible for
protecting the US against bioterrorism should heed the maxim which has served so many doctors so well for so long: Primum non nocere.
2nc alt cause
Alan Gross is the largest alt cause to relations
Smith 13 (Wayne, senior fellow and director of the Cuba Project and visiting professor of Latin American
Studies and director of the University of Havana exchange program at Johns Hopkins University and
former senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and executive secretary of
President Kennedy's Latin American Task Force and chief of mission at the U.S. Interests Section in
Havana, “U.S.-Cuban Relations and the Gross case, 1/07/13,
http://cipcubareport.wordpress.com/2013/01/07/us-cuban-relations-and-gross-case/, MDM)
One often notes a certain surreal quality in U.S.-Cuban relations. Recently, for example, statements out
of the State Department have suggested that everything hinges on the Gross case, that the U.S. will take
no steps to improve relations with Cuba until it releases Alan Gross, the USAID contractor arrested in Cuba almost four
years ago. Accompanying State Department statements have suggested that Gross was innocent of any wrongdoing and had simply been
distributing cell phones to an isolated Jewish community.¶ If only that had been the case. In fact, he had been distributing sophisticated
communications equipment in clear violation of Cuban law. According to an Associated Press article dated Feb 12, 2012, Gross described his
activities as “very risky business.” They must have been for he was being paid almost $600,000 for his efforts! The same article also reports that
he was using a special SIM card during his last trip to Cuba – a device intended to keep satellite phone transmissions from being pinpointed,
and normally available only to CIA and Defense Department personnel and sometimes to those connected with the State Department. And no
wonder he had one. Gross was employed by Developmental Alternatives Inc (DAI), which had a multi-million dollar contract with USAID to
operate in Cuba under a program called for by the Helms-Burton Act to promote democracy, i.e., to bring about regime change. The Cubans
considered the program subversive.¶ As for the suggestion that Gross was just distributing cell phones to an isolated Jewish community, Adela
Dworin, the president of Cuba’s largest Jewish community organization, has denied any link to Gross and stated that the Jewish community
“does not need any of the sophisticated equipment that Gross allegedly introduced in Cuba; we have a completely legal internet.”¶ That
certainly has been my experience. The Jewish community in Cuba is extremely well organized and has long had excellent internet connections,
with one another and with groups outside Cuba.¶ If
it is the U.S. Government’s position that any improvement in U.S.Cuban relations depends upon Gross’ release, what steps has the U.S. taken to bring that about? What
quid pro quos has it offered? None that I can see. And yet, improving relations with Cuba is (or should be) of
marked importance to the U.S. for our Cuban policy is condemned by the rest of the hemisphere. The
U.S. is the only country in the Americas not to have full diplomatic and trade relations with Cuba. And the
majority of other governments have said that unless Cuba is invited to the next Summit of the Americas they will not attend, and thus there will
it is in the interest of the U.S. to improve relations with Cuba, and yet,
as we have orchestrated it, the first step must be a solution to the Gross case, i.e., that he be freed. But, as
indicated above, there seems to be no effort on our part to bring that about.
LA Relations
be no Summit. How embarrassing for us.¶ Clearly,
2nc latin america defense
Zero risk of Latin America arms race escalating
Munks 9 – Americas Analyst, IHS Jane's (Robert Munks, “Could war erupt in arms-spree LatAm?” BBC, September 15 2009,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8256686.stm) MR
But in practice, the
risk of war breaking out is still negligible , given the likelihood of massive dissuasive
pressure from both the US and Brazil. For the moment, at least, arms acquisitions by Mr Chavez continue to be a
mix of both nationalistic pride and sabre-rattling. Economic suicide Elsewhere on the continent, fears of an arms race between
neighbouring Chile and Peru - which have contested a maritime boundary since a war in 1879 - resurface periodically. Yet here again, the
actual threat is minimal. Peru knows that it would be economic suicide to try to match Chile's vastly superior
armed forces. Sporadic outbursts of nationalist rhetoric are good for letting off steam , but do not indicate
genuine military competition. Even military minnows Paraguay and Bolivia have recently been mentioned in an "arms race" context.
Recent Bolivian military purchases - including helicopters from Russia - briefly raised over-exaggerated fears in Paraguay of a retaliatory re-run
of the bloody 1932-1935 Chaco War, in which Bolivia lost large swathes of territory. In
confrontation is non-existent .
reality, however, the appetite for
2nc narcotics defense
Cuba cracking down on drug traffickers now
Wells, 13 journalist for In Sight Crime, a journal about organized crime in the Americas (Miriam Wells, 1/23/13,
http://www.insightcrime.org/news-briefs/drug-trafficking-cuba-raul-castro) KD
Castro said he had taken forceful action when illegal drugs started to enter the island: "I personally had a
meeting with the bodies which deal with this problem and we took a decision: 'We are going to combat drugs, which are starting to
threaten us, with blood and fire,'" as Agencia Reforma reported.¶ The Cuban president called on other countries to
take tough measures against organized crime, referencing the Caribbean island's harsh drug penalties, under which people
caught with even small amounts of drugs can face long jail sentences. Castro reminded his audience that "our laws allow
the death penalty [for traffickers], it is suspended but it is there in reserve." Any foreigners trying to bring drugs into
Cuba would be arrested, he said, even if it were just a small amount of marijuana.¶ InSight Crime Analysis¶ Drug policy is one
area where Cuba has found some common ground with the United States, and the US State Department has praised
the country's "significant" cooperation on counternarcotics.¶ The island's geographic position between major drug
producing nations and US shores make it a prime location for the transshipment of narcotics, but its
strong counternarcotics efforts have done a lot to impede traffickers.¶ Sometimes working in coordination with the
US Coast Guard, Cuban forces monitor the coast with radars and carry out regular patrols. However, the authorities intercepted 9.01 tons of
illegal narcotics in 2011, a 360 percent increase on the year before.¶ The Cuban government has maintained a strict zero-tolerance policy for
production, possession and consumption on the island. One US citizen was sentenced to an 18-year jail term in 2009 for a drug offense.¶
2nc lng defense
LNG can’t explode
UPI 04 (7/14/04, “LNG a security risk to the U.S.?” http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2004/07/14/Analysis-LNG-asecurity-risk-to-the-US/UPI-12921089820549/) //KY
The possible consequences of a terrorist attack on LNG facilities or a tanker remain unknown. In the absence of
precedents, scientists cannot agree on the aftermath of such an incident. Experts including chemistry Nobel Prize winner Alan
Heeger argue that LNG cannot explode in its liquid state, noting that only when LNG reaches its "boiling"
point of minus 259 Fahrenheit and vaporizes will it become flammable. If a vessel loses the pressure necessary to
transport LNG and the cryogenic liquid begins to vaporize, the fire hazards of an uncontrolled release of LNG remains unknown. While
companies can ensure only that LNG is handled properly, federal and state authorities will continue to insist on stringent security measures as
U.S. demand for LNG continues to rise. The LNG lobby asserts that LNG
has a faultless safety record. Since the United
States began LNG shipments more than 30 years ago, not a single vessel had any accidental spills, caught
fire, or been attacked or sabotaged. American Gas Association's Managing Director of Policy Analysis Chris McGill told the
Baltimore Sun on Feb. 12: "They all see the possibility of capturing the growth in the natural gas market ... with the vast natural gas supplies
overseas that can be converted to liquefied natural gas.
The tankers are secure and strong, and the gas cant explode
Fialka and Gold 04 (staff writers at The Wall Street Journal 5/14/2004, Lexis) //KY
The night after the meeting, Green Futures sponsored a meeting at a local church hall where one of its members, Alfred Lima,
told the audience that
an LNG tanker carried the explosive equivalent of "55 Hiroshimas." "My family overlooks that facility," said a woman rushing
out the door during his presentation. "They could all be wiped out!" Mr. Shearer and other LNG industry officials have accused Dr. Fay of fear-mongering and gross
exaggeration. "Some
of the things Fay talks about are physically impossible," asserts Francis J. Katulak, who
operates the LNG terminal in Everett for Distrigas of Massachusetts LLC, a subsidiary of Suez SA, a French company. Mr. Katulak, a chemical engineer, says that Dr.
Fay's calculations assume that the entire cargo of a 900-foot LNG tanker spills into the water. But "it would take a
huge amount of explosives" to achieve that, he says, since the tankers contain five separate compartments and
have two hulls separated by 8 feet of protective materials. Mr. Robinson, the FERC official, says LNG
won't explode and won't burn in its liquid state. In a spill, the product can be ignited, but only after it vaporizes and
combines with a mixture of air ranging from 5% to 15%. Mixtures outside that range are either too lean or too rich to burn and most of the gas, being
lighter than air, quickly dissipates. The resulting fire will be of "very short duration," according to Mr. Robinson, who describes it as
a "lazy flame" that burns less than five minutes. So far, he says, government tests have been conducted on relatively small spills, but further studies are
under way. Dr. Fay, who still teaches an occasional course at MIT, admits that some of the conclusions being reached by his
disciples are exaggerated. "I think the Hiroshima comparison is unfair," he says, but he continues to assert that the heavily
guarded LNG tankers are vulnerable to terrorist bomb boats as they move through the harbor. "It's easy to do. All you need is a 35-foot motorboat. You fill it up with
two tons of ammonium nitrate, and you're in business
2nc bioterror defense
Even if terrorists have bioweapons they can’t possibly disperse them
Smithson 05 Amy E., PhD, project director for biological weapons at the Henry L. Stimson Center.( “Likelihood of Terrorists
Acquiring and Using Chemical or Biological Weapons” http://www.stimson.org/cbw/?SN=CB2001121259) //KY
that
must be deciphered include the concentration of agent in the delivery system, the ways in which the delivery
system degrades the potency of the agent, and the right dosage to incapacitate or kill human or animal
targets. For open-air delivery, the meteorological conditions must be taken into account. Biological agents have
extreme sensitivity to sunlight, humidity, pollutants in the atmosphere, temperature, and even exposure to
oxygen, all of which can kill the microbes. Biological agents can be dispersed in either dry or wet forms. Using a dry agent
Terrorists cannot count on just filling the delivery system with agent, pointing the device, and flipping the switch to activate it. Facets
can boost effectiveness because drying and milling the agent can make the particles very fine, a key factor since particles must range
between 1 to 10 ten microns, ideally to 1 to 5, to be breathed into the lungs. Drying
an agent, however, is done through a
complex and challenging process that requires a sophistication of equipment and know-how that
terrorist organizations are unlikely to possess. The alternative is to develop a wet slurry, which is much
easier to produce but a great deal harder to disperse effectively. Wet slurries can clog sprayers and undergo mechanical
stresses that can kill 95 percent or more of the microorganisms
solvency
5 years before any oil can be drilled
CDA 11 independent, non-profit think tank *citing Jorge Pinon a visiting research fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Center’s Cuban
Research Institute at FIU (Center for Democracy in the Americas, 2011, “As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless
risks to our national interest” http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) //KY
As Jorge Piñon
testified before Congress, “If Cuba’s undiscovered reserves are proven, it would take between
years for their development, and production volumes would have to reach a level of over
200,000 barrels per day to have the same economic benefit as that derived today from Venezuela’s oil
subsidies.”33 Were this threshold met, Cuba would no longer be dependent on Venezuela to provide it with subsidized shipments of oil. It
three and five
would be energy independent. Lisa Margonelli takes note of the fears about Venezuela and China operating in the region and establishing
spheres of influence near the U.S. In light of these fears, she says “We won’t be acting on our own interests if we tighten the screws and pursue
a policy that drives out everyone except Venezuela and China.”34
at add-ons
at drug cartels add-on
The US and Cuba successfully cooperate on drugs already, and Cuba’s not key to
cartels
Ramsey 12 writer for Insight – Organized Crime in the Americas, which provides research, analysis, and investigation of the criminal world
throughout the region (Geoffrey, "Drug Fight Builds US-Cuba Bridges," 2/2/12, http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analysis/drug-fight-builds-uscuba-bridges)//AM
Ultimately, it should be noted that the
amount of drugs that pass through Cuba on their way to the United States
pales in comparison to the country’s Caribbean neighbors, such as Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. For one thing,
the 50-year-old embargo makes it very difficult for drug smugglers to bring their product into the US.
Additionally, drug trafficking is one of the rare issues in which Cuban and American officials cooperate. As
InSight Crime has reported, the US Interests Section in Havana has a Coast Guard representative in Havana, and
leaked diplomatic cables reveal a level of engagement between the official and his counterparts in the Cuban
Ministry of Interior (MININT) on the issue of drug flights from Jamaica.¶ This cooperation seems to be having an
effect on US-Cuba relations, at least as they relate to crime. While State Department officials under President Ronald Reagan publicly
accused Fidel Castro of attempting to traffic drugs in order to boost the Cuban economy, the State Department’s 2011
International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR) acknowledges that the Cuban authorities have
made major inroads against the drug trade. In a rare note of praise for the Castro government, it notes that “Cuba’s
counternarcotics efforts have prevented illegal narcotics trafficking from having a significant impact on the island.”
off case
politics links
Offshore drilling kills political capital – alienates democrats and environmental lobby
and GOP and industry complain no matter what
Hobson 12 – EandE reporter, EnergyWire (Margaret Kriz, “Obama's development plans gain little political traction in years since Gulf
spill,” EE News, Wednesday, April 18, 2012
http://www.eenews.net/public/energywire/2012/04/18/1)//Bwang
President Obama is embracing the offshore oil and gas development policies he proposed in early 2010 but were
sidelined in the shadow of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.¶ Two years after the BP PLC oil rig exploded, killing 11 people and
causing the worst oil spill in U.S. history, Obama's "all of the above" energy policy includes offshore drilling
provisions that are nearly identical to his aggressive March 2010 drilling plan.¶ Since the moratorium on offshore oil drilling ended in late
2010, the administration expanded oil and gas development in the western and central Gulf of Mexico and announced plans for lease sales in
the eastern Gulf. The White House appears poised to allow Royal Dutch Shell PLC to begin exploring for oil this summer in Alaska's Beaufort and
Chukchi seas and to open oil industry access to the Cook Inlet, south of Anchorage. The administration is also paving the way for oil and gas
seismic studies along the mid- and south Atlantic coasts, the first such survey in 30 years.¶ While opening more offshore lands to oil and gas
development, the Obama administration has also taken steps to make offshore oil drilling safer, according to a report card issued yesterday by
Oil Spill Commission Action, an oversight panel formed by seven members of President Obama's oil spill commission.¶ That report criticized
Congress for failing to adopt new oil spill safety laws but praised the Interior Department and industry for making progress in improving
offshore oil development safety, environmental protection and oil spill preparation.¶ An environmental group was less complimentary. A report
yesterday by Oceana charged that the measures adopted by government and industry are "woefully inadequate."¶ As the 2012 presidential
campaign heats up and gasoline prices remain stuck near $4 per gallon, Obama's
offshore oil development policies aren't
winning him any political capital. The environmental community hates the drilling proposals. The
Republicans and oil industry officials complain that the White House hasn't gone far enough. And independent
voters are confused by the president's rhetoric.¶ According to the GOP political firm Resurgent Republic, independent voters in
Colorado and Virginia don't understand what Obama's "all of the above" energy mantra means. The report said, however, that once the policy
was "described as oil, gas, coal, nuclear power, solar and other alternative energies, participants became enthusiastic and view such a strategy
as credible and necessary to becoming more energy independent."¶ A recent Gallup poll indicated that American voters are polarized on energy
issues. The survey found that 47 percent of the public believes energy development is more important than environmental protection, while 41
percent of the public ranks protecting the environment as a bigger priority.¶ In that political climate, Obama's offshore oil development policies
are not likely to affect the nation's most conservative or liberal voters, noted Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for
Politics. "The
environmentalists have no place to go except Obama, and Obama isn't going to convince any
conservatives or Republicans to back him" based on his oil and gas proposals, Sabato said.¶ "He's obviously aiming
at swing independents," Sabato added. "He's trying to show that he's pursuing a middle path, the one many independents like. Maybe it will
work."¶ Back to the original plan, minus 2 pieces¶ Obama's all-of-the-above energy policy is in keeping with his pre-oil-spill offshore oil and gas
development proposal. After the Deepwater Horizon disaster, the White House slapped a six-month moratorium on all new oil and gas
development. Since the moratorium ended, Obama has systematically reintroduced most of the early oil development proposals.¶ Two pieces
of the old plan are missing. Obama backtracked on his proposal to allow oil exploration off Virginia's coast. The new East Coast offshore plan
lays the groundwork for seismic studies, but not drilling, along the mid- and south Atlantic.¶ The White House also dropped a proposal to allow
exploration in the eastern Gulf of Mexico within 125 miles of Florida, an area off limits due to a congressional moratorium. During 2010
negotiations, the administration offered to allow oil leasing in the region if Congress lifted the moratorium and passed a global warming bill.
When the climate change legislation died, however, the drilling provision lost White House favor.¶ Since the Republicans took control of the
House in 2011, GOP
leaders have advanced a series of bills that would go far beyond Obama's offshore oil
drilling policies, essentially allowing development along all U.S. shores. But those measures have been thwarted by the
Democrat-controlled Senate.
Drilling in Cuba is unpopular – perceived as propping up the regime
Bolstad 11 reporter who covers Washington for the Anchorage Daily News, the Idaho Statesman and McClatchy Newspapers. (Erika, "U.S.
lawmakers urge Spanish oil company to leave Cuba," 9/28/11, http://www.newfuelist.com/link/~2v7o#.Ud8LYUG1GHM)//AM
WASHINGTON — Thirty-four U.S.
lawmakers on Wednesday asked the Spanish oil company Repsol to keep out of
Cuban waters, saying the firm's pending offshore drilling plans would support the Castro regime and
"bankroll the apparatus that violently crushes dissent."¶ "The decaying Cuban regime is desperately
reaching out for an economic lifeline, and it appears to have found a willing partner in Repsol to come to
its rescue," said the author of a letter to the company, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla.¶ The company says it could begin
exploratory drilling as soon as December, a prospect that has the Florida and federal governments scrambling to develop
contingency plans for a spill even as many Floridians have fresh memories of last year's BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico.¶ "We are working on spill
response and we're working with the federal, state and local agencies — very closely," said U.S. Coast Guard spokeswoman Marilyn Fajardo.¶
The possibility of exploratory drilling also has federal agencies grappling with the international and political implications on the U.S. embargo
with Cuba.¶ Ros-Lehtinen, the chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, warned Repsol in the letter that any drilling operations it
conducts in Cuban waters could provide direct financial benefit to the Castro dictatorship. The company's partnership with the Cuban regime
also could violate U.S. law and may run afoul of pending legislation in Congress, she said.¶ Recently, representatives from several industry and
environmental groups traveled to Cuba to check in on the country's offshore plans. They included Lee Hunt, the chief executive of the
International Association of Drilling Contractors, and William Reilly, a former EPA administrator and co-chairman of the White House task force
that investigated last year's BP oil spill.¶ The group also included Richard Sears, the former vice president of deepwater drilling for Shell, and
Dan Whittle, an attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund.¶ Repsol spokesman Kristian Rix said the company had no comment on the letter
from Congress.¶ The company, which has U.S. operations that include leases in the Arctic waters off the northern Alaska coastline, is in the
process of bringing a drilling rig to Cuba.¶ Repsol in January 2010 signed a lease contract with the Italian energy company Saipem for drilling
equipment. Repsol on its website describes the equipment as complying "with all the technical requirements and all the limitations established
by the U.S. administration for drilling operations in Cuba."¶ The Republican-led House Natural Resources Committee had scheduled a hearing
on drilling in Cuban waters for last week, but it was postponed after Obama administration officials said they weren't yet prepared to outline
their overall response to offshore drilling in Cuba.¶ Some Republican members of the committee have complained in the past about Cuba's
ability to drill so close to the U.S. coastline even as a 125-mile buffer zone remains in place in U.S. waters off of most of Florida's coast.¶ The
congressional letter drew bipartisan support, with Florida Republican Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart, David
Rivera, Tom Rooney, Vern Buchanan, Dennis Ross and Sandy Adams signing onto it; they were joined by
Democrats Ted Deutch, Frederica Wilson and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.¶ Also signing the letter were: Rep. Dan
Burton, R-Ind., Rep. Steve Austria, R-Ohio, Rep. Joe Baca, D-Calif., Rep. Paul Broun, R-Ga., Rep. John Carter, R-Texas, Rep. John Barrow, D-Ga.,
Rep. Robert Andrews, D-N.J., Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore., Rep. Tim Murphy, R-Pa., Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, R-Wash., Rep. Cathy McMorris
Rodgers, R-Wash., Rep. Daniel Lipinski, D-Ill., Rep. Heath Shuler, D-N.C., Rep. Candice Miller, R-Mich., Del. Pedro Pierluisi, D-Puerto Rico, Rep.
Frank Pallone, D-N.J., Rep. Jean Schmidt, R-Ohio, Rep. Brian Higgins, D-N.Y., Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich., Rep. Steven Rothman, D-N.J.,
Rep. Michael Grimm, R-N.Y., Jason Altmire, D-Pa., and Rep. Edward Royce, R-Calif.¶
Oil drilling is massively unpopular—gives credibility to the regime and includes a
lot of danger
Stephens and Colvin 11 – *Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas; **Vice
President for Global Trade Issues at the National Foreign Trade Council (Sarah and Jake, “US-Cuba policy,
and the race for oil drilling,” The Hill, 9/29/11, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreignpolicy/184661-us-cuba-policy-and-the-race-for-oil-drilling)//Bwang
Rather than moving forward, some in the U.S. Congress would make the problem worse. Rep. Ileana RosLehtinen (FL-R), who criticized Mr. Reilly’s visit to Cuba as “giving credibility to the regime’s dangerous oildrilling scheme,” has offered legislation to try and stop Repsol from drilling. Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-R) would deny Repsol
the right to drill in U.S. waters if it helped Cuba drill in its waters. Thirty-four members of both parties
have written Repsol directly, threatening the company if it drills with Cuba.
Current oil exemptions aren’t perceived – the plan would be a radical change and
would tank Obama’s political capital.
Dlouhy 11 energy policy reporter for The Houston Chronicle and other Hearst Newspapers from Washington, D.C (Jennifer A., "Embargo
may block U.S. response to Cuban oil spill," 6/6/11, http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/06/06/embargo-may-block-u-s-response-to-cuban-oilspill/)//AM
If there were an accident under the current system, Cuban officials and the oil companies “simply won’t be able to pick up
the phone and call the nearest responders in the U.S.,” said Dan Whittle, a senior attorney and director of the Cuba program for the
Environmental Defense Fund.¶ Instead
of flying technicians and parts from New Orleans and Houston, oil
companies drilling in Cuban waters would have to seek resources from North Sea or South American
operations, said Jorge Piñon, an expert on Cuba’s energy sector who spent three decades working for Shell, Amoco and BP.¶ Repsol, a
publicly traded oil company based in Spain, is preparing to drill an exploratory well near the Florida Straits this fall, after Saipem’s Scarabeo 9 rig
arrives there. Partners on the project include Norway’s Statoil and India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp.¶ Other firms – all foreign-owned national oil
companies – are lined up to use the Scarabeo 9 to explore their offshore Cuba leases afterward, with drilling on as many as seven wells
reportedly planned during the next four years.¶ Political challenge¶ Under
the embargo – imposed administratively since the early
companies can ask the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control for
licenses to travel to or do business with Cuba. At least two U.S. companies specializing in spill response already hold such
1960s and by law since 1992 –
permits.¶ Advocates of a looser policy want the administration to issue a general license for a broad class of oil service companies to share
safety information now and do business with Cuba in case of an emergency.¶ Another option is a presidential executive order issued after a
disaster, though that would not remove barriers on sharing information in advance.¶ Piñon
notes that company-specific
licenses have a political virtue: They can be issued quietly. By contrast, a general license for all oil
response and service firms – even limited to emergencies – would be seen by some hard-line embargo
supporters as “the first crack in the embargo wall,” Piñon said.¶ That presents a political challenge for
the administration and for lawmakers on Capitol Hill, where the conventional wisdom is that any move
to relax the trade policy could alienate a powerful voting bloc of pro-embargo Cuban-Americans in
South Florida.¶ Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., who represents many such embargo supporters in Miami’s Little Havana and the Florida
Keys, wants the U.S. to do more to thwart Cuban offshore drilling.¶ “The Cuban tyranny will say and do anything to persuade others to invest in
its oil sector in order to stay afloat,” she said. “It is in our national security interests to deter others from participating in these reckless
schemes. We
cannot allow the Castro regime to become the oil tycoons of the Caribbean.”
Oil Drilling has Poison Pills attached to it- kills bipart
Chemnick 12 – EandE reporter, EandE Daily (Jean, “Senate Tuesday group has bipartisan energy legislation in its sights,” EE News,
Wednesday, February 1, 2012, http://www.eenews.net/public/EEDaily/2012/02/01/1)//Bwang
"I think there's a market now for energy efficiency and a market for domestic energy production," he said.¶ In
particular, Graham singled out his Home Star bill, which would have provided incentives for residential efficiency retrofits that he sponsored
last Congress with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.).¶ "I think there would be bipartisan support for that," Graham added.¶ But it is unclear whether
Home Star would be a candidate for any proposed package this year. The Warner-Graham bill has not been reintroduced, and while a version
passed the House in 2010, when the Democrats were in the majority, the Senate version was never approved by the Finance Committee.¶ The
bills the Energy and Natural Resources Committee has approved this Congress with bipartisan support
include an industrial energy efficiency bill co-sponsored by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio), a measure
to establish a new carbon capture and sequestration program at the Energy Department and bills to promote solar energy and geothermal.¶
Aside from the goal of producing legislation, the Tuesday group also provides an opportunity for its members to talk about climate and energy
issues. Energy Secretary Steven Chu addressed the senators in November.¶ Daniel Weiss of the Center for American Progress Action Fund said
that any of the bills approved by the energy committee would have a good chance of making it to the floor of the Senate.¶ But while
Kerry
succeed in crafting a bill that would garner broad bipartisan support, Senate
Republicans might move to attach amendments to it that would roll back U.S. EPA pollution restrictions,
approve the Keystone XL pipeline or open new areas along the West Coast or in Alaska to petroleum production,
Weiss said. Similar attempts are likely in the Republican-controlled House.¶ "The challenge would be to
keep poison-pill amendments off of the bill without getting it pulled," he said.
and his colleagues may