Title: “Thai Constitutional Crafting 2015: Premises, Pitfalls, Prospects” Time: Thursday, 9th April 2015 Location: The Chumbhot-Pantip Conference Room, 4th Floor Prajadhipok-Rambhaibarni Building Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University Organisers: ISIS Thailand, King Prajadhipok’s Institute, Friedrich Naumann Stiftung Opening Remarks Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ake Tangsupvattana Dean, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University Speakers: Prof. Dr. Suchit Bunbongkarn ISIS Senior Professorial Fellow Emeritus Professor and Former Dean, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University; Deputy Chairman and Member of Constitution Drafting Committee Assoc. Prof. Dr. Panitan Wattanayagorn Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University; Security Advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Dr. Jade Tonavanik Dean, Pridi Banonyong Faculty of Law, Dhurakij Pundit University; Member of Constitution Drafting Committee Assoc. Prof. Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee Department of Government, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University Dr. Thawilwadee Bureekul Director of Research and Development Office, King Prajadhipok’s Institute; Member of the National Reform Council; Member of Constitution Drafting Committee Moderator: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak Director of ISIS Thailand, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University Opening Remarks: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ake Tangsupvattana The Institute of Security and International Studies and the Faculty of Political Science positions itself as a neutral value-added window into Thailand for the outside world. There now may be more space to promote public understanding and conversation that is constructive and beneficial to Thailand. Thailand’s Constitutional drafting process is being undertaken hand-in-hand with other reforms. The Constitution Drafting Committee is currently drafting the 20th Constitution since 1932, and one may wonder whether this will be the last. It is important to lay out a workable pathway towards a new Charter that will enable Thailand to move forward. Moderator: Assoc Prof. Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak If we were to describe the thrust of the 1997 Constitution, it was based on the 1992 bloodshed and removing military dictatorship. It was an effort to eliminate money politics in Thailand. For a number of reasons it didn’t work. The overarching basis of the 2007 Constitution was to prevent abuses of power. For 2015, what kind of overarching theme is driving the current crafting process? Prof. Dr. Suchit Bunbongkarn The new Constitution will be finished very soon. It is an issue at the forefront of many minds and some are concerned over its contents, so it is important to also look at the attractive points of what it will include. The 1997 Constitution was written to redress problems surrounding unstable, weak coalition governments. The drafters wanted to strengthen the executive branch, to empower the position of the Prime Minister. This proved a success, so much so that Prof. Suchit suggested that Thaksin Shinawatra and Yingluck Shinawatra were the only Prime Ministers in Thailand between 1997 and 2014. The power of the executive was so strong that they believed once they were in power they could do anything. The contentious enactment of the Amnesty Bill in 2013 is evidence of these abuses of power. There was an imbalance between the executive and the institutions to check abuses of power. At the same time, the 1997 Constitution sought to eliminate ‘vote buying’ practises which had become rampant, so a number of institutions oversee elections and scrutinise politicians were established. The new Constitution is being drafted with four key aims in mind: 1) Thailand has a weak ‘people-sector.’ To ensure stability in a democracy there needs to be a solid base for the people. In the past whenever there has been a political problem, the tendency has been to only revise structure at the top, such as removing Prime Minsters or politicians. However, the role of people has been overlooked. The basic problem of Thai democracy has been that there has been a relatively weak people sector, as evidenced by the fact that people can be easily mobilised or manipulated for the benefit of political leaders. So, one of the objectives of the new Constitution is empowerment of the people. 2) Corruption and cronyism have long hampered Thai politics. Enabling clean politics is essential. To make clean politics possible there must be a revised system of checks and balances. 3) There must be a society with justice for all. There must be a reduction in the gaps between economic classes and ethnicities, and urban and rural areas. This Constitution will be quite unique as it will force those in power to provide justice for all. 4) The current government do not want to see a repeat of violence and clashes between the people that occurred last year before the military coup. This is a difficult task, but some processes to build peace, serenity and reconciliation have been included in the new Constitution. If the current draft of the Constitution is accepted, it will be one of the longest in the world with 315 Articles. When the Constitution writing process started in January 2015, one of the goals of the Constitution Drafting Committee members was to produce a succinct Charter, but this was ultimately unachievable. Citizens’ empowerment has been one of the major themes shaping the drafting process. Conventional rights such as freedoms of expression, life and liberty have been included, but rights for people to access good education, environment and governance are also prioritised. Under the draft Constitution the government will have an obligation to ensure these rights are met. There are also a number of clauses which will allow citizens to get more involved in checking and scrutinising politicians, such as the Citizens Council at the Local Level to oversee the administration at the local level. At the national level, the National Ethic Council will be established to oversee the ethics, principles and morality of politicians. The dominance of a single party over the electorate will also try to be avoided, so a Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system has been adopted to allow smaller parties to be elected and to reflect a true view of will of the voters. In this system, coalitions would be required to be able to form government. There have been some attacks on the CDC claiming that the MMP system will lead to unstable government, but once the party system itself becomes more democratic and responsive to the people (rather than the needs of the leader or interests of the party) this instability will be mitigated. Dr. Thawilwadee Bureekul Input for the Constitution drafting process comes not only from the 36-members of the CDC, but there has been a great deal of engagement with the public. The best ‘immune system’ for a democracy is input from the public. Listening to the people allows politicians and technocrats to respond to their specific needs. The CDC opened a PO Box, 1600 post-boxes, and utilised electronic communication to allow people to submit their proposals and ideas directly to the drafting committee. Over 20 public deliberative forums were held all over Thailand for eligible voters to engage with the CDC. The suggestions from these forums and submissions have been posted on the CDC website and in a regular newsletter. The most important issue that came out of these public forums was for the Constitution to mandate anticorruption mechanisms. Reconciliation, education reform, equality, socio-economic security and public participation in the policy process were commonly brought up. Many of these issues had already been addressed by the CDC in the draft Charter, however some ideas were included after the public participation processes. Good governance, public participation and gender equality are new areas for Thai Constitutions. Good governance and public administration have been promoted by the CDC. While good governance was covered in the 1997 Constitution, the draft of the latest Constitution places much more attention on it, particularly with regard to environmental governance and environmental justice. People will have more access to decision making, policy and justice in environmental management. Strategic environmental assessments and judgements on resource allocation have also been highlighted. Gender responsive budgeting has been contentious, but is the most important item in the Constitution. Thanks to the efforts of members such as Dr. Suchit and Dr. Jade, gender has been addressed in a Thai Constitution for the first time. Within the CDC, there was a secret vote on whether to include gender quotas in the draft of the Constitution. The process of budget allocation will take into account gender issues, and will help the government address their priorities when they allocate resources to live up to their commitments to advance women’s rights. This will transform the rhetoric about women’s rights into a concrete reality. Gender quotas may be a small issue, but is important for women. At least one-third of the Party List must be allocated to the ‘alternate gender.’ Dr. Jade Tonavanik Many of the issues in Thailand are being addressed in the Constitution in new and laudable ways. They are aimed at, in many ways, improving not only politicians but also enhancing ordinary Thai citizens into engaged, active voters responsible for their political system. The Constitutions of United States, Germany and Australia are impressive as they have endured with only a few modifications. Thailand, famously, is up to its twentieth Constitution since 1932. In the current process, one of the concerns faced in the drafting process was to determine whether issues addressed in the Constitution would still be relevant one-hundred years into the future. Ever since Thailand’s first modern election, women have had the right to vote. Thailand has not struggled with women’s suffrage like other countries. Thailand, however, does still have imbalances regarding gender, which Gender Responsive Budgeting will seek to address. The current draft Constitution has 315 Sections, making up more than 16,000 words more than the 1997 Constitution, and 10,000 words more than the 2007 Constitution. Looking into what the CDC have been trying to do, one of the main subjects that being brought into reality is proportionality. Since the 1997 Constitution which used the parallel systems of constituency and party-lists under a ‘first-past the post’ system, the real will of the electorate has not been truly shown. The only major change in the current draft Constitution has been to include proportionality. This will bring the real will of the people in elections. The first, second and third runners up in the constituency will not be MPs, but all the votes they received will go to the Party List. Thailand will be the first country out of nine currently using the Mixed Member Proportional system to use an Open-List in the electoral process. One of the problems in Thailand is that political parties have been dominated by their ‘owners’ or ‘funders,’ who might not be popular with the majority of voters. Now under the Open-List system, voters will have a greater chance to select their preferred candidate within a political party. For example, if there are only 11 positions available in the Parliament, and ‘Miss A’ is number 18 on the party list, but a large number of voters select her over the other candidates, with the Open-List system it is possible for her to be elected. Under old system, she will never be able to get into Parliament. Another contentious issue is the pluralist Senate. The CDC have deliberated on whether to retain the Senate and House of Representatives in a bicameral system. If the Senate comes from direct elections, why do we need to have it? The result in the Senatorial elections will be the same as those in the House. If we want to keep the Senate we have to make it different. A balance between the Senate and House must be struck. Therefore, the CDC has suggested a so-called ‘Three-River Senate,” with members selected from the ranks of former Permanent Secretaries and government officials, from the overall professions and occupations around the country (including home-keepers, farmers and teachers) selected by a selection committee, and finally the 77 people from 77 provinces (anyone can run for election, or selected by a selection committee who choose one-from-ten people.) The Senate will not have equal power to propose and pass laws as the House of Representatives. The division of power is similar to existing processes in bicameral parliaments worldwide. The Senate and House of Representatives will also be able to join to solve important or pressing issues together. There are two distinctions for the position of Prime Minister, one that comes from the Members of Parliament and one that is not. People who are MPs are already elected from the people directly, so for one of them to become Prime Minister simply requires a simple majority (more than half). But for a person who is not MP, a two-thirds supermajority will be required. The non-MP Prime Minister will be able to come into power in great times of need. The CDC has tried to reform and bring reconciliation to the country with the draft Constitution. While this might be idealistic, better ways of trying to bring this change about are not forthcoming. Moderator: What will be the mechanics on voting day? Will there be two ballots? Jade: I would say, three ballots. One is for the Constituency, the other is for the Party-List, and the third on is for a person on the list. A lot of people were advising that since we use the Open-List, people should be asked to rank all of their preferred candidates, but we decided that it might be too complicated. Hence, they will only select their favourite candidate. Moderator: How many MPs will there be? Jade: 250 in the constituencies, and up to 220 in the Party List (to allow for the overhand mandate). Moderator: The Open-List is designed to overcome the previous party-list sequence was sequential, so now people can truly select their preferred candidate. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Panitan Wattanayagorn The NCPO and the government are committed to their roadmap, which is half-way to completion. The government are currently preparing for the conclusion of the drafting of the Constitution, and a decision on a referendum should be made soon (if there is a referendum, it may take longer for the Constitution to be in place for the election.) When the current government came into power, their first order was to ensure that peace and stability were installed and that a stable environment was created to enable the crafting of the Constitution. For now, that seems to be on-course. There are five main objectives for the current government at present: 1) Provide a safe, secure and stable environment. The NCPO are determined that all demonstrations relating to the drafting process have to be monitored and approved. If a number of groups come out to demonstrate, the drafting of the Constitution may be derailed. 2) This year, the government has encouraged more participation of stakeholders in the drafting process. Monitoring over 600 satellite TV stations and 6000 satellite radio states, most of them have very intense comments on drafting of the Constitution and performance of the government. 3) The government wishes to see that progress is made in the Constitution drafting process, particularly with regards to issues such as political conflict. There should be a new framework for governance and new rules and regulations. Progress should be made on conflict between political parties. The two major political parties need internal reform, and need to reconcile and work in the new framework made by the CDC. 4) Conflicts among political groups and against elected governments must be addressed. Not only do parties, institutions and courts have power, but citizens themselves have become empowered. They have created colour-coded groups and are quite dynamic in many regards. 5) It is interesting to see that the Constitution drafters are trying to address reforms for the future in Thailand. There are eleven reform areas that the government is passing to the CDC and NRC. This is about social justice. The Thai people have woken up to the new reality that they need more justice, equal rights and space. These reform areas must address that. The NCPO, government and Prime Minister so far have not commented on the Constitutional drafting process. It has been left up to the CDC. Although these drafters were picked by the coup-makers, they are clearly independent minds. The Thai people themselves will be the adjudicators for whether the Constitution passes or fails. Thailand has been a democracy since 1932, but it has had a new Prime Minister on average every three years, 19 Constitutions, and 61 Cabinets. These statistics are nothing to be proud of and Thailand has a long way to go before it becomes a consolidated democracy. With the new elements included in the draft Constitution, such as empowerment of the citizens and social justice, hopefully the Thai people will call politicians to be more responsible for the country. Assoc. Prof. Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee The Constitution Drafting Committee have undertaken their drafting, or ‘crafting’ process with the most sincere of intentions, however there are some reservations and concerns over current draft. Primarily, there should be concern that the ‘soul’ and the ‘body’ of this Constitution are contradictory. The ‘soul’ of the Constitution can be found in Article 3 which says “The sovereign power belongs to the People.” However, the Constitution’s contents reveals otherwise. Thailand has had four Constitution changes in the past 18 years, beginning with the 1997 Constitution, the 2007 Constitution, the amended 2011 Constitution and the current interim Constitution. The major reason for such frequent changes is to counter past experiences, mainly due to a distrust of elected representatives. Although there is a need to keep politicians’ power checked, there are three pitfalls that may undermine this Constitution. 1) Unintentional consequences Prof. Jade described the Mixed Member Proportional system as having an Open-Party list. In general, there is little wrong with the MMP system which is designed to reflect the view of the people. The Open-List is designed to counter the manipulation and domination of the party by its executive. However, to combine those systems together might induce more vote-buying and patronage. Candidates on the Open-List will be competing against each other within their parties, meaning that campaigning will be far more candidate oriented. The draft also states that the half of the Parliament can bring down the government with a vote of no-confidence. Yet, as stipulated in the draft constitution, a no-confidence motion will not only lead to the end of the administration but also the termination of the House. In other words, after a vote of no confidence, the PM will have to resign and dissolve the House of Representatives. In this context, it is doubtful that the MPs will give a serious censure debate over the Prime Minister because they will not be so eager to stand for an election so soon. 2) Devaluation of Elections The problem with a non-MP Prime Minister being elected, as Prof. Jade alluded to earlier, in a ‘time of crisis’ is by whom and when that ‘time of crisis’ will be defined. That means that the PM does not need to be elected by the people, but simply picked by two-thirds of the House of Representatives. The bottom line is that the election will become less meaningful and only a political ritual, which may prove to be a major problem. Moreover, the ‘half-selected’ and ‘half-elected’ Senate will cast doubt on the checks-and-balances system. Although the half-selected do not have consent of the people, they will be empowered with moral authority. 3) Unaccountability The draft Constitution aims to transfer power from mistrusted politicians to several independent commissions. The fundamental and basic question in this institutional design is, “Who will check the Watchmen?” In this case, the newly established independent commissions such as the National Ethics Council which has the power for background checks and to set moral standards, who will have the power to appoint and make them accountable to the people? It is acceptable for the CDC to try to formulate a way forward for Thailand, but when they reserve positions for their ‘good people’ there is a problem. A common definition for a ‘good person’ isn’t clear cut or unanimous, indeed within the CDC and NRA there have been corruption and conflict scandals. There are two final points for the prospects for the new Constitution. First, there is concern that the Constitution will not deliver on its purpose of bringing Thais together. So far, there is a sense that the public is aloof due to ‘reform fatigue’ or due to fear. The public’s exclusion from the process raises ownership and legitimacy questions that will affect the Constitution’s acceptances. Secondly, Thailand and Thai politics are at risk of turning back to the pre-1997 era when the Prime Minister was too busy shuffling Cabinets and political parties were fragmented and weak to offer concrete policies. With good intentions, people might want to turn the clock back to the time where we feel secure and comfortable, however, the real time is moving forward. So are the people. Moderator: The no-confidence provision has been taken out. It will return to the previous system. If the PM or an MP loses a no-confidence vote they resign and then they can form a new government with the same lower-house. Public Question: Two questions about empowerment of citizens. If this is a Constitution which is supposed to empower citizens, why are citizens not trusted to approve or disapprove of it in a referendum? Second, are there any provisions in the draft Constitution to strengthen civilian control over the military and to reduce the military as a political force? Suchit: The CDC have officially recommended to the government that there be a public referendum on the final draft of the Constitution. I have heard unofficially that a number of people in the NCPO seem to agree with the referendum. Moderator: In the heyday of the late 1980s Prof. Panitan was an advisor to the Prime Minister who was also doubling as the Defence Minister. Panitan: This is an ongoing process. It takes a great deal of effort to make a big shift. The economic crisis of 1997 helped reduce about 80,000 personnel and allowed us to close down a number of military operations overseas, and streamline arms procurement and reshuffling process. Chuan Leekpai was not liked by the military, and is still not liked to this day. As a result, the Democrat Party are still unpopular among military ranks. We are now beginning now to look around for expert groups from overseas to begin to talk about this process. We also need to prepare the military to respond to the emerging challenges in the region associated with the rise of China and decline of the United States’ presence in Asia. Just this week, the Defence Minister is in China to discuss defence purchases, there have been meetings top Indian Minister and the Russian Prime Minister. Moderator: Will any article like Article 44 be retained in the new Constitution, and under what conditions could it be invoked? Jade: We did not directly discuss Article 44 of the Interim Constitution, but we discussed something similar to Article 16 of the French Constitution regarding emergency powers. In the end we dropped that. So, the easy answer is “No.”